Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.31 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 46.1, usage worth 11.
24 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 39 |
| ESPN | 52.8 |
| YAHOO | 46 |
| UNDERDOG | 34 |
| CBS | 46.6 |
| FFA | 42 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR20 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5.6 picks |
Our board has him at 218.6 points, 13.3 per game — 80.1 catches, 1,043 yards, 5.7 TDs. That is WR3, 42 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.4 points per game to a ceiling of 20.2, with the median at 13.3. Boom rate 52%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 46.1 on consensus and our board has him 42. We rank him 4.1 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Top WR-breakout bet and the cleanest way to buy the Chargers passing game. Cleared the 88th percentile vs man/zone/press despite a down box-score year (O-line injuries crushed Herbert). McDaniel's move to heavier 12/21 personnel HELPS him: he plays outside in 2-WR sets, running vs a backup TE instead of a slot defender, so targets-per-route climb. Mid-4th cost, top-5 ceiling; ideal WR2 behind a robust-RB start.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-14Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 24.2%, with a bear case of 22.6% and a bull case of 26.4% and a full range of 21.2% to 27.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Ladd McConkey ← | 24.2% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.9% |
| Tre' Harris | 13.3% |
| Oronde Gadsden | 10.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | 10% |
| Brenen Thompson | 8.6% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 22.5%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 23.8%, p25-p75 [20.4%, 27.0%], tails [18.0%, 29.1%]. Closest comps: Brandon Aiyuk 2022→2023 (SF: 20.3%→23.8%); Zay Flowers 2023→2024 (BAL: 23.9%→25.4%); Diontae Johnson 2020→2021 (PIT: 22.7%→27.6%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
self-anchored 45% to own 22.5% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 23.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -7.8 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.1 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.6 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Ladd McConkey study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -13.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 2023 | 14.5 | 78% | -6.7% |
| George Pickens | 2023 | 12.3 | 75% | +20.4% |
| D.J. Chark | 2020 | 11.8 | 75% | -31.1% |
| Marquise Brown | 2020 | 11.4 | 74% | +18.3% |
| Tee Higgins | 2021 | 15.7 | 73% | +6.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 2, pick 34 by LAC |
| College | Georgia |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 186 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 124″ |
| Career PPR per game | 14 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 26.9% |
| Bust rate | 19.2% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.51 |
His best game was Week 6 against MIA — 23 PPR on 9 targets and a 23.7% target share, in a game that finished 29-27. His worst was Week 4 against NYG at 2.1, on 6 targets, final score 18-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.3; in the 8 decided by more, 14.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 11.31, 0.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 27-21 | 13.4 | 6 | 9 | 74 | 0 | 26.5% | 85% |
| 2 | LV | 20-9 | 9.8 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 18.5% | 74% |
| 3 | DEN | 23-20 | 8.1 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 15.6% | 93% |
| 4 | NYG | 18-21 | 2.1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 15.8% | 92% |
| 5 | WAS | 10-27 | 14.9 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 21.9% | 79% |
| 6 | MIA | 29-27 | 23 | 7 | 9 | 100 | 1 | 23.7% | 69% |
| 7 | IND | 24-38 | 15.7 | 9 | 15 | 67 | 0 | 27.8% | 88% |
| 8 | MIN | 37-10 | 20.8 | 6 | 10 | 88 | 1 | 41.7% | 58% |
| 9 | TEN | 27-20 | 9.6 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 21.4% | 69% |
| 10 | PIT | 25-10 | 20.7 | 4 | 6 | 107 | 1 | 18.2% | 71% |
| 11 | JAX | 6-35 | 4.3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16.7% | 62% |
| 13 | LV | 31-14 | 13.9 | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 28.6% | 76% |
| 14 | PHI | 22-19 | 2.2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 21.7% | 86% |
| 15 | KC | 16-13 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 11.5% | 74% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-17 | 14.3 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 21.4% | 75% |
| 17 | HOU | 16-20 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6.5% | 89% |
| Receptions | 66 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 789 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 11.31 |
| Yards per target | 7.44 |
| Catch rate | 62.26% |
| Snap share | 77.5% |
| Target share | 21.09% |
| Air-yards share | 26.04% |
| WOPR | 0.498 |
| RACR | 0.851 |
| Average depth of target | 9.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Total YAC | 310 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 84.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.45 |
| Red-zone targets | 15 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.5% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.95 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 32 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 31 of 44 |
| Target share | 26 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 34 of 44 |
The offense threw it 569 times. He took 19.67% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Keenan Allen | 22.63% |
| Ladd McConkey ← | 19.67% |
| Quentin Johnston | 15.58% |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 12.8% |
| Tre Harris | 7.98% |
| Omarion Hampton | 6.49% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 37.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.64 in those and 8.31 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against NE — 29.4 PPR on 10 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 40-7. His worst was Week 2 against CAR at 4.6, on 4 targets, final score 26-3. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.8; in the 9 decided by more, 15.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.1 points per game. He scored 15.06, 23.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.68 expected, a gap of 2.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 22-10 | 14.9 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 28% | 67% |
| 2 | CAR | 26-3 | 4.6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 21.1% | 49% |
| 3 | PIT | 10-20 | 7.4 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 31.6% | 72% |
| 4 | KC | 10-17 | 17.7 | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 | 25.9% | 77% |
| 6 | DEN | 23-16 | 8.3 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 25.8% | 63% |
| 7 | ARI | 15-17 | 9.6 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 18.9% | 86% |
| 8 | NO | 26-8 | 29.1 | 6 | 6 | 111 | 2 | 20% | 62% |
| 9 | CLE | 27-10 | 11.4 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 | 26.9% | 84% |
| 10 | TEN | 27-17 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 52 | 0 | 11.1% | 78% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-27 | 18.3 | 6 | 9 | 123 | 0 | 27.3% | 73% |
| 12 | BAL | 23-30 | 14.3 | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 16.7% | 86% |
| 13 | ATL | 17-13 | 20.7 | 9 | 12 | 117 | 0 | 50% | 63% |
| 15 | TB | 17-40 | 16.8 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 | 21.9% | 88% |
| 16 | DEN | 34-27 | 14.7 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 20% | 78% |
| 17 | NE | 40-7 | 29.4 | 8 | 10 | 94 | 2 | 25% | 77% |
| 18 | LV | 34-20 | 16.5 | 5 | 8 | 95 | 0 | 22.9% | 68% |
| Receptions | 82 |
| Targets | 112 |
| Receiving yards | 1,149 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15.06 |
| Yards per target | 10.26 |
| Catch rate | 73.21% |
| Snap share | 73.19% |
| Target share | 24.57% |
| Air-yards share | 28.81% |
| WOPR | 0.569 |
| RACR | 1.148 |
| Average depth of target | 9.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 390 |
| Broken tackles | 10 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 123 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 17% |
| End-zone target share | 23.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.68 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.32 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 16 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 3 of 51 |
| Target share | 26 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 51 |
The offense threw it 509 times. He took 23.05% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Ladd McConkey ← | 23.05% |
| Quentin Johnston | 18.72% |
| Josh Palmer | 13.37% |
| Will Dissly | 13.17% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 7.82% |
| Stone Smartt | 3.91% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 37.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 18.26 in those and 14.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Ladd McConkey →