Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 158, usage worth 4.3.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 180.9 |
| ESPN | 170.4 |
| YAHOO | 132.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 131.8 |
| CBS | 148.2 |
| FFA | 112 |
| Goes around | Round 14, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB52 |
| Bye week | 7 |
| ADP standard deviation | 21.8 picks |
Our board has him at 135 points, 8.4 per game — 592 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 23.5 catches. That is RB5, 113 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 6.7 points per game to a ceiling of 14.4, with the median at 8.4. Boom rate 71%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 158 on consensus and our board has him 113. We rank him 45 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
hit 20+ mph on 7 separate carries last season (a league-leading number) on just 59 total touches — the most explosive back in the league on a tiny sample, and explicitly described as statistically near-identical to De'Von Achane's own rookie season profile under the same coach.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Los Angeles Chargers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Justin Herbert at quarterback, Jim Harbaugh as head coach, Mike McDaniel calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27 rushes.
In: Brenen Thompson (wr4), Luke Grimm (wr7), Keaton Mitchell (rb2), Charlie Kolar (te2). Out: Keenan Allen (wr3), Tyler Conklin (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Omarion Hampton | 54.1% |
| Keaton Mitchell ← | 21.8% |
| Jaret Patterson | 15.2% |
| Kamani Vidal | 9% |
What the offense looks like: The top targets and back in this offense will be STELLAR fantasy assets in 2026 and beyond. Herbert SHOULD have a killer season in 2026.
Key additions: Joe Alt & Slater are back. This offense should do a complete 180. Joe Alt & Slater return in 2026 from injury & Chargers add Jake Slaughter LG in the 2nd round of 2026 draft. Sign Tyler Biadasz C, and RG Cole Strange. Entire different O ine from later year. Signed RB Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal. Signed FB Alex Ingold from Miami. Biggest change is teh offensive Genius Mike McDaniel is the new OC.
Key departures: Keenan Allen remains a free agent and is not currently expected back with the Chargers
Notes: Chargers bring in Mike McDaniel as offensvie coordinator who could SUPERCHARGE offense. Herbert ascending as top 7 dynasty QB. Keenan Allen remains a free agent. Ladd & QJ should operate as 1A & 1B with Ladd having more potential. Tre' Harris should operate as WR3 if no one else is brought in. TE Oronde Gadsden could be very good. RB room is complex. Hampton is the presumed starter week 1 with massive potential but Vidal has been very capable as a back up & chargers also signed Keaton Mitchell to 2 year deal in free agency. Question mark people should think about in usage. Thompson round 4.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Justin Herbert returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Mike McDaniel — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 21.8% |
| Projected carries per game | 4.8 |
| Projected carries, full season | 82 |
| Last season, carries per game | 4.5 |
That is an increase of 0.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: LAC rates 24.3 against a league average of 23, 1.3 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | -3.1 · harder |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.7 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Keaton Mitchell study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +29.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 2024 | 4 | 74% | +47% |
| Ty Chandler | 2024 | 2 | 73% | -12.5% |
| Zamir White | 2024 | 3.7 | 73% | -27% |
| Joshua Kelley | 2022 | 5.4 | 72% | +2% |
| Pierre Strong | 2023 | 2.7 | 72% | +2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 179 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.37s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 126″ |
His best game was Week 13 against CIN — 11.1 PPR on 5 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 14-32. His worst was Week 6 against LA at 0, on 0 touches, final score 3-17. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 8 decided by more, 4.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4.3 points per game. He scored 4.26, 1.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 9% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 0% | 11% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 4.3% | 18% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 3.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 7.4 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 12% | 26% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | 19% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 11.1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 10% | 13% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 76 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 6.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 8.3% | 39% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 5.8 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 10% | 18% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| Receptions | 9 |
| Targets | 12 |
| Receiving yards | 63 |
| Carries | 59 |
| Rushing yards | 341 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.26 |
| Yards per target | 5.25 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 5.78 |
| Snap share | 17.46% |
| Target share | 4.2% |
| Air-yards share | -1.48% |
| WOPR | 0.053 |
| RACR | 0.112 |
| Average depth of target | -2.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.4 |
| Total YAC | 85 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 51.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 13.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.81 |
The offense threw it 422 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 9 | 4.78 | 5.67 | 4.4% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 1 | 1.15 | 5 | 2.5% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 2 | 5.05 | 3.5 | 5% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 51.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.72 in those and 3.92 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against HOU — 5.8 PPR on 12 touches and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-2. His worst was Week 11 against PIT at 0, on 0 touches, final score 16-18. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 1.7, 39.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 6.3% | 27% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 1 |
| Receiving yards | 28 |
| Carries | 15 |
| Rushing yards | 30 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.7 |
| Yards per target | 28 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 13.5% |
| Target share | 1.57% |
| Air-yards share | -0.65% |
| WOPR | 0.02 |
| RACR | -1.4 |
| Average depth of target | -5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 33 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -5 |
| Total YAC | 33 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 118.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.3 |
The offense threw it 477 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, 100% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.4 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against SEA — 20.4 PPR on 10 touches and a 3.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-3. His worst was Week 7 against DET at 1.9, on 1 touches, final score 38-6. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 9.99, 57.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DET | 38-6 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 3% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 20.4 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 9 | 138 | 1 | 3.1% | 18% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 13.6 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 8.7% | 24% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 5.1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 4.3% | 36% |
| 12 | LAC | 20-10 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 6.7% | 46% |
| 14 | LA | 37-31 | 7.2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 5% | 33% |
| 15 | JAX | 23-7 | 10.8 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 73 | 0 | 8.7% | 36% |
| Receptions | 9 |
| Targets | 11 |
| Receiving yards | 93 |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rushing yards | 396 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 9.99 |
| Yards per target | 8.45 |
| Catch rate | 81.82% |
| Yards per carry | 8.43 |
| Snap share | 28% |
| Target share | 5.73% |
| Air-yards share | -0.33% |
| WOPR | 0.084 |
| RACR | 2.741 |
| Average depth of target | -0.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 13.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.2 |
| Total YAC | 122 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.37 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.49 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 3.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.2 |
The offense threw it 494 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.4% |
2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 31.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.15 in those and 10.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Keaton Mitchell →