Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 7.29 points per game in 2025, usage worth 8.4.
Tennessee Titans returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, te1, hc, oc. Cam Ward at quarterback, Robert Saleh as head coach, Brian Daboll calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 24.5 rushes.
In: Mitch Trubisky (qb2), Carnell Tate (wr1), Wan'Dale Robinson (wr2), Nicholas Singleton (rb3), Michael Carter (rb4), Daniel Bellinger (te2). Out: Tyler Lockett (wr4), Julius Chestnut (rb3), Chig Okonkwo (te1), Josh Whyle (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Carnell Tate | 18.3% |
| Calvin Ridley | 18.3% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 15.5% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 11.2% |
| Chimere Dike | 9.1% |
| Tyjae Spears | 8.9% |
What the offense looks like: It is an offense that could slowly be on the rise. It could QUICKLY be on the rise if Ward figures it out early in 2026 and could catch people off guard. Tate & Robinson are our primary targets. Ward is a great potential riser especially in SF. RB room is difficult to project, but Pollard it likely to be lead back in 2026 and could be a low end RB2 in fantasy.
Key additions: Titans HUGE adds to coaching staff that could turn this team aroud. HC Robert Saleh & former Giants (and QB whisperer) HC Brian Daboll head head to Tennessee and may a GREAT duo. Bring in WR Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency from NY (1000 yard slot WR last year) & draft WR Carnell Tate 4th overall. Beef up the O line with Austin Schlottmann & Volson. Drafted RB Nicholas Singleton in the 5th round (likely depth).
Key departures: HC Brian Callahan was fired after 1-5 start last season (ass) and this will be a huge help to the Titans offensive success. TE Chig Okonkwo left to Commanders in free agency
Notes: Titans draft Carnell Tate 1.04. Large potential for early breakout & Cam Ward to deliver at a high level. Calvin Ridley is trash but if Cam Ward can sling the rock could produce (we don't want to own Ridley). Ayomanor & Dike COULD be good if Ward produces but with Tate and Robinson around now will never be WR1 on the team. Could gain relevance though. Gunnar Helm entering 2nd year and should operate as TE1. Tony Pollard is aging & only has a few years left (not attractive to own). Tyjae Spears cannot stay healthy. Have to image the Titans will invest in another RB long term (Nicholas Singleton is probably not that guy either).
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Cam Ward returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Brian Daboll — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Robert Saleh.
Offensive environment: TEN rates 20.8 against a league average of 23, 2.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +5.1 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +10 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +9.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +52.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 2023 | 7.5 | 77% | -4.4% |
| Juwan Johnson | 2024 | 8.2 | 75% | +55.3% |
| Noah Gray | 2024 | 7.1 | 71% | -19% |
| Jake Ferguson | 2024 | 7.5 | 70% | +24.4% |
| Tyler Conklin | 2022 | 7.7 | 64% | -4.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Height | 6′3″ |
| Weight | 238 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52s |
| Vertical | 35.5″ |
| Career PPR per game | 7.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.7 |
| Boom rate | 16.7% |
| Bust rate | 20.4% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.23 |
His best game was Week 16 against KC — 16.4 PPR on 8 targets and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 26-9. His worst was Week 7 against NE at 0, on 2 targets, final score 13-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 10 decided by more, 7.3. Game state made no difference to his scoring.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 7.29, 13.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 12-20 | 4.9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 16% | 88% |
| 2 | LA | 19-33 | 7.5 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 19.4% | 76% |
| 3 | IND | 20-41 | 11.6 | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 17.6% | 66% |
| 4 | HOU | 0-26 | 1.4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13% | 70% |
| 5 | ARI | 22-21 | 8.8 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 13.5% | 63% |
| 6 | LV | 10-20 | 10.6 | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 17.6% | 57% |
| 7 | NE | 13-31 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 60% |
| 8 | IND | 14-38 | 9.3 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 13.5% | 62% |
| 9 | LAC | 20-27 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 9.5% | 68% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-16 | 8.6 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 8.3% | 68% |
| 12 | SEA | 24-30 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 10.5% | 63% |
| 13 | JAX | 3-25 | 6.9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 14.3% | 61% |
| 14 | CLE | 31-29 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | 48% |
| 15 | SF | 24-37 | 7.3 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 22.2% | 57% |
| 16 | KC | 26-9 | 16.4 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 29.6% | 45% |
| 17 | NO | 26-34 | 14.5 | 3 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 20% | 51% |
| 18 | JAX | 7-41 | 2.2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15.2% | 80% |
| Receptions | 56 |
| Targets | 79 |
| Receiving yards | 560 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.29 |
| Yards per target | 7.09 |
| Catch rate | 70.89% |
| Snap share | 63.71% |
| Target share | 14.97% |
| Air-yards share | 8.71% |
| WOPR | 0.285 |
| RACR | 3.336 |
| Average depth of target | 4.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Total YAC | 342 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 93.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.8% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.17 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.17 |
The offense threw it 570 times. He took 14.93% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Elic Ayomanor | 16.82% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo ← | 14.93% |
| Chimere Dike | 13.99% |
| Gunnar Helm | 10.4% |
| Van Jefferson | 9.83% |
| Tyjae Spears | 9.45% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 16 | 74 | 7.61 | 7.54 | 14.96% |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | 5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 15.2% |
7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 38.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.83 in those and 7.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against IND — 19.1 PPR on 11 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 30-38. His worst was Week 8 against DET at 1.4, on 5 targets, final score 14-52. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9; in the 8 decided by more, 5.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.7 points per game. He scored 7.1, 8.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 17-24 | 9.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 7.4% | 59% |
| 2 | NYJ | 17-24 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.1% | 48% |
| 3 | GB | 14-30 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.9% | 56% |
| 4 | MIA | 31-12 | 1.5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 16.7% | 51% |
| 6 | IND | 17-20 | 3.6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% | 57% |
| 7 | BUF | 10-34 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 | 10.5% | 58% |
| 8 | DET | 14-52 | 1.4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 13.2% | 62% |
| 9 | NE | 20-17 | 6.8 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 14.8% | 73% |
| 10 | LAC | 17-27 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4.3% | 54% |
| 11 | MIN | 13-23 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13.8% | 71% |
| 12 | HOU | 32-27 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 70 | 1 | 4% | 76% |
| 13 | WAS | 19-42 | 5.7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 16.7% | 65% |
| 14 | JAX | 6-10 | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 12.5% | 72% |
| 15 | CIN | 27-37 | 13.9 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 27% | 63% |
| 16 | IND | 30-38 | 19.1 | 9 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 33.3% | 85% |
| 17 | JAX | 13-20 | 10.9 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 23.3% | 74% |
| Receptions | 52 |
| Targets | 70 |
| Receiving yards | 479 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 17 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 7.1 |
| Yards per target | 6.84 |
| Catch rate | 74.29% |
| Yards per carry | 17 |
| Snap share | 64% |
| Target share | 14.1% |
| Air-yards share | 11.04% |
| WOPR | 0.289 |
| RACR | 2.692 |
| Average depth of target | 5.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Total YAC | 249 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.46 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.4% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.04 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.04 |
The offense threw it 530 times. He took 13.83% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 23.72% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo ← | 13.83% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.86% |
| Tyler Boyd | 11.26% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.26% |
| Josh Whyle | 7.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 9 | 26 | 5.67 | 7.31 | 9.64% |
| Mason Rudolph | 7 | 44 | 8.94 | 6.57 | 19.83% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.4 in those and 9.04 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against SEA — 18.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 28% target share, in a game that finished 17-20. His worst was Week 1 against NO at 0, on 2 targets, final score 15-16. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.5; in the 5 decided by more, 4.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 6.67, 14.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 15-16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.1% | 83% |
| 2 | LAC | 27-24 | 7.5 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 16.7% | 69% |
| 3 | CLE | 3-27 | 3.7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16.7% | 81% |
| 4 | CIN | 27-3 | 5.9 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 11.5% | 65% |
| 5 | IND | 16-23 | 8.3 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 26.5% | 58% |
| 6 | BAL | 16-24 | 3.8 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 20% | 73% |
| 8 | ATL | 28-23 | 6.7 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 19.2% | 72% |
| 9 | PIT | 16-20 | 5.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10.8% | 73% |
| 10 | TB | 6-20 | 5.7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 15.4% | 54% |
| 11 | JAX | 14-34 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.8% | 40% |
| 12 | CAR | 17-10 | 8.5 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 18.5% | 53% |
| 13 | IND | 28-31 | 9.4 | 3 | 6 | 62 | 0 | 18.2% | 59% |
| 14 | MIA | 28-27 | 9.6 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 | 16.7% | 68% |
| 15 | HOU | 16-19 | 6.6 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 11.5% | 63% |
| 16 | SEA | 17-20 | 18.3 | 6 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 28% | 71% |
| 17 | HOU | 3-26 | 6.4 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16% | 75% |
| 18 | JAX | 28-20 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 11.5% | 56% |
| Receptions | 54 |
| Targets | 77 |
| Receiving yards | 528 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 6.67 |
| Yards per target | 6.86 |
| Catch rate | 70.13% |
| Yards per carry | 3 |
| Snap share | 65.47% |
| Target share | 16.18% |
| Air-yards share | 12.86% |
| WOPR | 0.332 |
| RACR | 0.978 |
| Average depth of target | 6.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 260 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.46 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.5% |
| End-zone target share | 13% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.43 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 16.18% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeAndre Hopkins | 28.78% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo ← | 16.18% |
| Tyjae Spears | 14.71% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 9.45% |
| Derrick Henry | 7.56% |
| Chris Moore | 7.35% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 9 | 40 | 6.61 | 6.38 | 17% |
| Will Levis | 8 | 37 | 6.74 | 7.38 | 15.26% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.4 in those and 7.51 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against JAX — 18.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 15.8% target share, in a game that finished 22-36. His worst was Week 7 against IND at 0, on 1 targets, final score 19-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.8; in the 6 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.4 points per game. He scored 6.08, 20.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 20-21 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.2% | 15% |
| 2 | BUF | 7-41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 4 | IND | 24-17 | 12.8 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 14.3% | 24% |
| 5 | WAS | 21-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 20% |
| 7 | IND | 19-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 46% |
| 8 | HOU | 17-10 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 25% | 41% |
| 9 | KC | 17-20 | 5.8 | 1 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 23.1% | 35% |
| 10 | DEN | 17-10 | 5.1 | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 5.6% | 32% |
| 11 | GB | 27-17 | 4.1 | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 7.4% | 45% |
| 12 | CIN | 16-20 | 6.5 | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 14.7% | 33% |
| 13 | PHI | 10-35 | 10.8 | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 20% | 58% |
| 14 | JAX | 22-36 | 18.5 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 15.8% | 49% |
| 15 | LAC | 14-17 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 19.2% | 60% |
| 16 | HOU | 14-19 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10% | 46% |
| 17 | DAL | 13-27 | 5.4 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 10.5% | 25% |
| 18 | JAX | 16-20 | 13.2 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 14.8% | 43% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 450 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.08 |
| Yards per target | 9.78 |
| Catch rate | 69.57% |
| Yards per carry | 0.67 |
| Snap share | 37.56% |
| Target share | 12.06% |
| Air-yards share | 12.33% |
| WOPR | 0.267 |
| RACR | 1.152 |
| Average depth of target | 7.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.1 |
| Total YAC | 254 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 122.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.49 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.2% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.72 |
The offense threw it 456 times. He took 10.55% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Robert Woods | 20.87% |
| Austin Hooper | 13.76% |
| Treylon Burks | 12.39% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 11.47% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo ← | 10.55% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11 | 31 | 6.32 | 10.42 | 9.95% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 7 | 3.03 | 8.71 | 19.37% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 8 | 9.3 | 8.25 | 12.65% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.4 in those and 5.84 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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