RB · WAS · GWTTKB

Rachaad White — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.41 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 122.1, usage worth 9.1.

27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 122.1
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 6.1, 14 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on underdog.
SLEEPER124.9
ESPN128.7
YAHOO119.9
UNDERDOG113.2
CBS114.7
FFA107

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 11, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB40
Bye week7
ADP standard deviation6.1 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 134.4 points, 8.4 per game — 427 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs, 32.9 catches. That is RB5, 108 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 4.2 points per game to a ceiling of 14.7, with the median at 8.4. Boom rate 74%, bust rate 49%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 122.1 on consensus and our board has him 108. We rank him 14.1 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

Our written view

the worst situational profile discussed: Washington threw to the RB position LESS than any team in the league last year, and on top of that limited pie he's stuck in a genuinely muddled three-way committee.

watch · medium conviction · 2026-08

The offense he plays in, 2026

Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.

In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt53.2%
Rachaad White 32.9%
Jeremy McNichols11.8%
Kaytron Allen2.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.

Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.

Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.

Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share32.9%
Projected carries per game7.5
Projected carries, full season127
Last season, carries per game7.8

That is a reduction of 0.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.7 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+2.2 · easier
Weeks 1–6+2.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17-3.6 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-9.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Rachaad White study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +8.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Jaylen Warren20248.361%+30.8%
Alexander Mattison20238.360%-1.8%
Kareem Hunt20227.560%-26.6%
Travis Etienne20248.759%+43.8%
Jerick McKinnon202211.557%-28.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Up 19% across the series, peaking at 4,575.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 3, pick 91 by TAM
CollegeArizona St.
Age at draft23
Height6′0″
Weight214 lb
40-yard dash4.48s
Vertical38″
Broad jump125″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game12.3
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate18.5%
Bust rate13%
Games missed per season0.3
Injury historyFoot
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.39

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · TB · 17 games

His best game was Week 5 against SEA — 23.1 PPR on 18 touches and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 38-35. His worst was Week 3 against NYJ at 2.4, on 6 touches, final score 29-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8; in the 5 decided by more, 9.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.1 points per game. He scored 8.41, 7.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.63 expected, a gap of -1.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1ATL23-202.611221403.3%24%
2HOU20-1914.6221106515.6%31%
3NYJ29-272.411251203.4%28%
4PHI25-318.64529617012.8%42%
5SEA38-3523.144301441212.5%80%
6SF30-1917.633211765113%77%
7DET9-248.44661038012%90%
8NO23-38.12226133508.3%55%
10NE23-2810.455161038011.6%72%
11BUF32-448.223111051011.1%60%
12LA7-345.211473803.2%60%
13ARI20-175.9332227011.5%38%
14NO20-246.5122115307.1%49%
15ATL28-293.611612003.1%42%
16CAR20-238221554508%39%
17MIA17-203.722721004.5%48%
18CAR16-146.1221872309.1%33%

Production

Receptions40
Targets45
Receiving yards218
Carries132
Rushing yards572
Touchdowns4
Points per game8.41
Yards per target4.84
Catch rate88.89%
Yards per carry4.33

Role

Snap share51.06%
Target share8.24%
Air-yards share-2.65%
WOPR0.104
RACR-2.175

Efficiency

Average depth of target-2.3
Yards after catch per reception8.2
Yards before catch per reception-2.8
Total YAC329
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted86.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.11
Rushing EPA per game0.61

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share13.9%
End-zone target share3.1%
Red-zone carry share28.1%
Goal-line carry share40%
Expected receiving TDs1.63
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.63
Expected rushing TDs3.69

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game39 of 49
Yards per target40 of 49
Target share29 of 49
Air-yards share43 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 558 times. He took 8.33% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Emeka Egbuka23.52%
Cade Otton15%
Mike Evans11.48%
Sterling Shepard9.81%
Chris Godwin9.44%
Rachaad White 8.33%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.65 in those and 7.96 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · TB · 15 games

His best game was Week 7 against BAL — 29.1 PPR on 16 touches and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-41. His worst was Week 2 against DET at 3.3, on 11 touches, final score 20-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.4; in the 8 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 13.31, 9.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.94 expected, a gap of 2.1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1WAS37-2016.666751531020%70%
2DET20-163.3115101805.3%71%
3DEN7-268.55618617018.8%74%
4PHI33-1610.42335104906.4%58%
5ATL30-369.633-61072012.5%64%
7BAL31-4129.166711040213.3%48%
8ATL26-3115.75638629113%56%
9KC24-3012.5331631919.7%62%
10SF20-231967391031124.1%61%
12NYG30-711.71110123713.3%49%
13CAR26-238.8112117602.9%53%
14LV28-1324.923191790210.7%76%
15LAC40-1714.12217156417.7%51%
16DAL24-26117850310018.6%50%
17CAR48-144.411463003.1%36%

Production

Receptions51
Targets57
Receiving yards393
Carries144
Rushing yards613
Touchdowns9
Points per game13.31
Yards per target6.89
Catch rate89.47%
Yards per carry4.26

Role

Snap share58.6%
Target share11.29%
Air-yards share-4.61%
WOPR0.137
RACR-2.917

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.9
Yards after catch per reception10.1
Yards before catch per reception-2.4
Total YAC516
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted130.5
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.75
Rushing EPA per game-1.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share12.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share26.3%
Goal-line carry share30.8%
Expected receiving TDs2.94
Actual receiving TDs5
Receiving TD luck2.06
Expected rushing TDs4.39

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game21 of 46
Yards per target10 of 46
Target share15 of 46
Air-yards share46 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 571 times. He took 10.12% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mike Evans19.54%
Cade Otton15.45%
Chris Godwin11.01%
Jalen McMillan10.3%
Rachaad White 10.12%
Bucky Irving9.24%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 32.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.95 in those and 11.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · TB · 17 games

His best game was Week 9 against HOU — 27.9 PPR on 24 touches and a 13.3% target share, in a game that finished 37-39. His worst was Week 6 against DET at 6.8, on 11 touches, final score 6-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.5; in the 10 decided by more, 14.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.5 points per game. He scored 15.76, 0.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1MIN20-176.92210173906.3%79%
2CHI27-1721.355301773115.6%72%
3PHI11-257.233241438012%91%
4NO26-910.833221556010%70%
6DET6-206.83412726010.8%79%
7ATL13-1615.966651334014.6%75%
8BUF18-2417.97770939017.9%82%
9HOU37-3927.944462073213.3%80%
10TEN20-617.823472051110.3%71%
11SF14-2717.86728930116.3%80%
12IND20-271322101510006.7%87%
13CAR21-1819.635222084118.5%87%
14ATL29-2521.522332510216.9%84%
15GB34-2021.92250218917.4%81%
16JAX30-1219.767382039120%68%
17NO13-238.644241142012.1%73%
18CAR9-013.344181975012.9%74%

Production

Receptions64
Targets70
Receiving yards549
Carries272
Rushing yards990
Touchdowns9
Points per game15.76
Yards per target7.84
Catch rate91.43%
Yards per carry3.64

Role

Snap share78.41%
Target share12.45%
Air-yards share-0.86%
WOPR0.181
RACR1.428

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.5
Yards after catch per reception9.5
Yards before catch per reception-1
Total YAC611
Broken tackles8
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted113.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game1.37
Rushing EPA per game-2.65

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share13.9%
End-zone target share2.9%
Red-zone carry share69.6%
Goal-line carry share73.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.79
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.79
Expected rushing TDs6.62

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game10 of 49
Yards per target6 of 49
Target share13 of 49
Air-yards share28 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 568 times. He took 12.73% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mike Evans24.73%
Chris Godwin23.64%
Rachaad White 12.73%
Trey Palmer12.36%
Cade Otton12.18%
Deven Thompkins4.55%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 11.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.25 in those and 17.53 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · TB · 17 games

His best game was Week 12 against CLE — 19.9 PPR on 23 touches and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 17-23. His worst was Week 3 against GB at 0, on 0 touches, final score 12-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.9; in the 7 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 8.3, 15.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL19-34.122761407.4%27%
2NO20-100.10202106.1%13%
3GB12-1400000000%9%
4KC31-4116.655503619.6%38%
5ATL21-157.2342851408%39%
6PIT18-205.33411412010.8%22%
7CAR3-214.212862404.2%43%
8BAL22-277.3332441907.1%26%
9LA16-136.433782705.5%35%
10SEA21-1610.50002210500%64%
12CLE17-2319.999451464021.4%90%
13NO17-1616.96841928115.1%41%
14SF7-3510.75521135609.8%53%
15CIN23-345.3125113804.8%39%
16ARI19-1615.3441773618.3%36%
17CAR30-249.855261122011.9%50%
18ATL17-301.500041500%18%

Production

Receptions50
Targets58
Receiving yards290
Carries129
Rushing yards481
Touchdowns3
Points per game8.3
Yards per target5
Catch rate86.21%
Yards per carry3.73

Role

Snap share37.82%
Target share7.65%
Air-yards share-0.39%
WOPR0.112
RACR-2.041

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.3
Yards after catch per reception6.2
Yards before catch per reception-0.4
Total YAC309
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted99
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.41
Rushing EPA per game-1.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share7%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share23.4%
Goal-line carry share18.8%
Expected receiving TDs1.52
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.48
Expected rushing TDs1.87

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game36 of 42
Yards per target22 of 42
Target share27 of 42
Air-yards share28 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 751 times. He took 8.02% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Chris Godwin19.64%
Mike Evans17.57%
Leonard Fournette11.48%
Russell Gage9.68%
Cade Otton8.99%
Rachaad White 8.02%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 17 games were blowouts, 10.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.45 in those and 9.86 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

Ask the Coach about Rachaad White →
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