Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.7 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 2.8.
25 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 603 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR82 |
Our board has him at 34.3 points, 2.1 per game — 13.1 catches, 152 yards, 1 TDs. That is WR6, 363 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.5 points per game to a ceiling of 3.7, with the median at 2.1. Boom rate 77%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 169.9 on consensus and our board has him 363. We rank him 193.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 3%, with a bear case of 1.2% and a bull case of 4.5%.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Brandon Aiyuk | 21.8% |
| Terry McLaurin | 18.6% |
| Chig Okonkwo | 10.2% |
| Antonio Williams | 9% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.7% |
| Rachaad White | 6.2% |
What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.
Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.
Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.
Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 4.0% baseline.
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.2 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.5 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -10.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Tolbert | 2023 | 4.3 | 86% | +60.3% |
| David Bell | 2023 | 5.4 | 82% | -22.4% |
| Dyami Brown | 2023 | 2.2 | 73% | +129.7% |
| Jermaine Burton | 2024 | 1.8 | 71% | -39.3% |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2024 | 1.4 | 70% | -0.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 3, pick 100 by WAS |
| College | Rice |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 198 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 6.7s |
| Shuttle | 4.02s |
His best game was Week 3 against LV — 14.6 PPR on 3 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 41-24. His worst was Week 9 against SEA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 14-38. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.
His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 5.7, 100.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 21-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 2 | GB | 18-27 | 4.9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.5% | 23% |
| 3 | LV | 41-24 | 14.6 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 | 16.7% | 36% |
| 4 | ATL | 27-34 | 10.1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 12.5% | 37% |
| 5 | LAC | 27-10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 8.7% | 39% |
| 6 | CHI | 24-25 | 10.3 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 4.2% | 38% |
| 7 | DAL | 22-44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5% | 54% |
| 8 | KC | 7-28 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 51% |
| 9 | SEA | 14-38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Receptions | 11 |
| Targets | 15 |
| Receiving yards | 203 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.7 |
| Yards per target | 13.53 |
| Catch rate | 73.33% |
| Snap share | 31.67% |
| Target share | 6.79% |
| Air-yards share | 9.99% |
| WOPR | 0.171 |
| RACR | 1.084 |
| Average depth of target | 14.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.2 |
| Total YAC | 69 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 154.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.3% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.65 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.35 |
The offense threw it 469 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Deebo Samuel | 22.92% |
| Zach Ertz | 16.67% |
| Terry McLaurin | 13.89% |
| Jaylin Lane | 7.41% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 7.18% |
| Chris Moore | 5.32% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 6 | 6 | 3.53 | 17 | 3.65% |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 9 | 10.03 | 11.22 | 13.07% |
5 of his 9 games were blowouts, 50.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.2 in those and 10.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against CIN — 7.4 PPR on 3 targets and a 13% target share, in a game that finished 38-33. His worst was Week 17 against ATL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-24. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.1; in the 4 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.4 points per game. He scored 2.68, 21.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-37 | 4.8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 12.5% | 61% |
| 3 | CIN | 38-33 | 7.4 | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 13% | 34% |
| 4 | ARI | 42-14 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.3% | 44% |
| 5 | CLE | 34-13 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 11.1% | 66% |
| 6 | BAL | 23-30 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | 37% |
| 8 | CHI | 18-15 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.9% | 34% |
| 10 | PIT | 27-28 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9.4% | 41% |
| 11 | PHI | 18-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 30% |
| 12 | DAL | 26-34 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.9% | 26% |
| 13 | TEN | 42-19 | 3.3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6.7% | 29% |
| 15 | NO | 20-19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 15% |
| 16 | PHI | 36-33 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8.3% | 13% |
| 17 | ATL | 30-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 24 |
| Receiving yards | 168 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.68 |
| Yards per target | 7 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 35.15% |
| Target share | 6.34% |
| Air-yards share | 5.65% |
| WOPR | 0.135 |
| RACR | 0.794 |
| Average depth of target | 7.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Total YAC | 97 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 59 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.3% |
| End-zone target share | 2.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.78 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.78 |
The offense threw it 525 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 23.26% |
| Zach Ertz | 18.09% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.72% |
| Noah Brown | 11.13% |
| Austin Ekeler | 8.15% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.95% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 45.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.92 in those and 2.12 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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