Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.55 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 14.5.
32 years old · 11 seasons of experience · 2015 draft class
Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN
170
UNDERDOG
216
FFA
753
Draft-room facts
Goes around
Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank
QB60
The offense he plays in, 2026
Washington Commanders returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing te1, oc. Jayden Daniels at quarterback, Dan Quinn as head coach, David Blough calling it. The offense projects to 30.1 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.7 rushes.
In: Antonio Williams (wr2), Brandon Aiyuk (wr3), Dyami Brown (wr5), Rachaad White (rb2), Kaytron Allen (rb4), Chig Okonkwo (te1). Out: Deebo Samuel (wr2), Austin Ekeler (rb2), Chris Rodriguez Jr (rb3), Zach Ertz (te1).
The projected target split across the offense:
Brandon Aiyuk
21.8%
Terry McLaurin
18.6%
Chig Okonkwo
10.2%
Antonio Williams
9%
Jaylin Lane
7.7%
Rachaad White
6.2%
Our written view on this offense in 2026
What the offense looks like: Terry McLaurin has been struggling with injuries & is aging. The Commanders have young WR talent that can step up, but they are going to need it quickly. Chig Okonkwo could provide immediate help to Jayden Daniels. But Jayden has to play at a high level. I believe Jayden can be a top 5 QB in the NFL & he has not historically struggled with injuries throughout his career. There is a risk in this offense if Jayden gets hurt again, but when healthy, this is an offense that the top RB will be highly relevant, should have a productive TE, and can support fantasy relevance out of multiple WR.
Key additions: Signed RB Rachaad White from Tampa in free agency (Jayden Daniels college teammate). Signed WR Ryami Brown in free agency from Jacksonville. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo from Tennessee in free agency to 3 year deal (starter). Drafted RB Kaytron Allen in the 6th roud. Expected to sign WR Brandon Aiyuk in free agency.
Key departures: OC Kluff Kingsbury is gone afer disaster 2025 season (promoted David Blough to OC). Lost WR Deebo Samuel in free agency. Lost TE Zach Ertz due to ACL injury because Marcus Mariota got his knee exploded on a hospital ball across the middle of the field.
Notes: Williams round 3 WR could connect early with Daniels. Terry McLaurin is aging, but if he can stay healthy, he will produce over next few years. Signed TE Chig Okonkwo who could 100% produce well with Jayden Daniels but hadn't provded it with Titans yet. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be 1A RB while they sign Bucs RB Rachaad White in free agency. Could function as 1B and recieving back. Very curious to see how this dynamic turns out. Brandon Aiyuk WILL SIGN with Commanders or be traded to them. Unsure if he will be good following knee surgery, but he will be in Washington next Season. Daniels top 5 SF dynasty QB. Buy him. Rookie WR Williams, WR Dyami Brown, & Treylon Burks all have a chance to operate as WR2 or 3. Only 1 can win the full time job though.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jayden Daniels returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (27.6 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.1 att/g; New OC David Blough — pass rate and tempo may shift.
How the quarterback projection was built
Base case 308.5 PPR points, with a bear case of 135.6 and a bull case of 440.2, and a comp mean of 295.5. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
Comparable season
What he actually scored
Distance
Jayden Daniels 2024
114.3
0
Josh Allen 2024
416.8
0.4
Jalen Hurts 2023
411.6
0.4
Josh Allen 2023
438.3
0.5
Lamar Jackson 2023
471.5
0.5
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 90th percentile and his value in the 90th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: WAS rates 23 against a league average of 23, exactly at it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
2026 schedule
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
Full season
-0.2 · neutral
Weeks 1–6
+3.6 · easier
Weeks 12–17
-3 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)
-7.5 · harder
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Dynasty context not redraft
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle
His dynasty value has moved +62.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
Player
Season
Their PPG
Similarity
Next year
Deshaun Watson
2024
11
57%
-4.3%
Jameis Winston
2024
11.9
53%
-0.7%
Jacoby Brissett
2022
12
48%
-8.9%
Deshaun Watson
2023
14.5
47%
-59.2%
Mason Rudolph
2024
12
46%
+15.9%
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
Four years of dynasty value
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 19% across the series, peaking at 2,470.
The player
Draft capital and athletic profile
Drafted
2015, round 1, pick 2 by TEN
College
Oregon
Age at draft
21
Height
6′4″
Weight
222 lb
40-yard dash
4.52s
Vertical
36″
Broad jump
121″
3-cone
6.87s
Shuttle
4.11s
Availability and volatility
Career PPR per game
11.6
Week-to-week variation
0.7
Boom rate
14.3%
Bust rate
23.8%
Games missed per season
1
Injury history
Quadricep, Hand
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
The record, season by season
2025 · WAS · 10 games
His best game was Week 13 against DEN — 23.26 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-27. His worst was Week 14 against MIN at -2.1, on 0 targets, final score 0-31. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.4; in the 6 decided by more, 9.3. He scored more when the game was live.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 12.55, 13.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
3
LV
41-24
20.28
0
6
40
2
0%
100%
4
ATL
27-34
16.24
0
2
20
2
0%
100%
7
DAL
22-44
3.92
0
2
34
0
0%
31%
8
KC
7-28
11.32
0
8
28
1
0%
100%
10
DET
22-44
18.72
0
5
22
2
0%
94%
11
MIA
13-16
15.42
0
4
49
1
0%
99%
13
DEN
26-27
23.26
0
10
55
2
0%
100%
14
MIN
0-31
-2.1
0
2
7
0
0%
25%
15
NYG
29-21
14.74
0
10
43
1
0%
100%
16
PHI
18-29
3.7
0
1
-1
0
0%
59%
Production
Carries
50
Rushing yards
297
Touchdowns
11
Points per game
12.55
Yards per carry
5.94
Role
Snap share
80.8%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
0.67
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
8.8%
Goal-line carry share
8.8%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
1.41
Who else ate
The offense threw it 469 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Deebo Samuel
22.92%
Zach Ertz
16.67%
Terry McLaurin
13.89%
Jaylin Lane
7.41%
Jeremy McNichols
7.18%
Chris Moore
5.32%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Marcus Mariota
8
0
15.46
—
0%
Jayden Daniels
2
0
0.91
—
0%
Blowouts against close games
5 of his 10 games were blowouts, 41.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.43 in those and 17.41 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2024 · WAS · 3 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 15.25, 30.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
5
CLE
34-13
0.12
0
2
2
0
0%
13%
7
CAR
40-7
19.6
0
11
34
2
0%
86%
18
DAL
23-19
26.04
0
5
56
3
0%
55%
Production
Carries
18
Rushing yards
92
Touchdowns
5
Points per game
15.25
Yards per carry
5.11
Role
Snap share
51.33%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
1.17
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
1.4%
Goal-line carry share
2.6%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.56
Who else ate
The offense threw it 525 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Terry McLaurin
23.26%
Zach Ertz
18.09%
Olamide Zaccheaus
12.72%
Noah Brown
11.13%
Austin Ekeler
8.15%
Dyami Brown
7.95%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Marcus Mariota
2
0
22.82
—
0%
Jayden Daniels
1
0
0.12
—
0%
Blowouts against close games
2 of his 3 games were blowouts, 43.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.86 in those and 26.04 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2023 · PHI · 2 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 5.88, 25.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
13
SF
19-42
1.24
0
2
6
0
0%
7%
18
NYG
10-27
10.52
0
6
46
1
0%
57%
Production
Carries
8
Rushing yards
52
Touchdowns
1
Points per game
5.88
Yards per carry
6.5
Role
Snap share
32%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
2.83
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0
Who else ate
The offense threw it 562 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
A.J. Brown
30.1%
DeVonta Smith
21.33%
Dallas Goedert
15.81%
D'Andre Swift
9.33%
Kenneth Gainwell
7.05%
Quez Watkins
4%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Jalen Hurts
1
0
1.24
—
0%
Marcus Mariota
1
0
10.52
—
0%
2022 · ATL · 13 games
His best game was Week 6 against SF — 24.16 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-14. His worst was Week 4 against CLE at 3.86, on 0 targets, final score 23-20. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.3; in the 3 decided by more, 18. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 14.7 points per game. He scored 15.12, 2.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
NO
26-27
19.8
0
12
72
1
0%
100%
2
LA
27-31
13.44
0
6
16
2
0%
100%
3
SEA
27-23
15.56
0
7
4
2
0%
100%
4
CLE
23-20
3.86
0
5
3
0
0%
100%
5
TB
15-21
17.98
0
7
61
1
0%
100%
6
SF
28-14
24.16
0
6
50
3
0%
100%
7
CIN
17-35
12.06
0
6
31
1
0%
100%
8
CAR
37-34
22.42
0
6
43
3
0%
100%
9
LAC
17-20
7.56
0
5
24
0
0%
100%
10
CAR
15-25
17.74
0
3
43
2
0%
100%
11
CHI
27-24
17.74
0
13
25
2
0%
100%
12
WAS
13-19
13.86
0
6
49
1
0%
100%
13
PIT
16-19
10.38
0
3
17
1
0%
100%
Production
Carries
85
Rushing yards
438
Touchdowns
19
Points per game
15.12
Yards per carry
5.15
Role
Snap share
100%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
0.76
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
14.3%
Goal-line carry share
15.4%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
2.59
Who else ate
The offense threw it 415 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Drake London
29.4%
Olamide Zaccheaus
15.33%
Kyle Pitts
14.82%
Cordarrelle Patterson
7.79%
Damiere Byrd
5.78%
MyCole Pruitt
5.28%
Blowouts against close games
1 of his 13 games were blowouts, 6.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.06 in those and 14.26 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2021 · LV · 7 games
His best game was Week 12 against DAL — 6.4 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 36-33. His worst was Week 15 against CLE at 0.3, on 0 targets, final score 16-14. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 1.5 points per game. He scored 2.12, 40.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
BAL
33-27
3.1
0
1
31
0
0%
1%
7
PHI
33-22
0.4
0
1
4
0
0%
2%
9
NYG
16-23
0.6
0
1
6
0
0%
1%
12
DAL
36-33
6.4
0
2
4
1
0%
2%
15
CLE
16-14
0.3
0
1
3
0
0%
6%
17
IND
23-20
1.6
0
3
16
0
0%
8%
18
LAC
35-32
2.46
0
4
23
0
0%
9%
Production
Carries
13
Rushing yards
87
Touchdowns
1
Points per game
2.12
Yards per carry
6.69
Role
Snap share
4.14%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
1.03
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
6.4%
Goal-line carry share
9.1%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
1.11
Who else ate
The offense threw it 628 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Hunter Renfrow
21.66%
Darren Waller
15.74%
Zay Jones
11.84%
Josh Jacobs
10.83%
Bryan Edwards
9.98%
Foster Moreau
7.45%
2020 · LV · 1 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 20.3 points per game. He scored 25.84, 27.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
15
LAC
27-30
25.84
0
9
88
2
0%
86%
Production
Carries
9
Rushing yards
88
Touchdowns
2
Points per game
25.84
Yards per carry
9.78
Role
Snap share
86%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
11.24
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
3%
Goal-line carry share
3.8%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.53
Who else ate
The offense threw it 551 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.