Should I start Antonio Williams in Week 6?

Our Week 6 projection has Antonio Williams at 6.3 half-PPR points (7.9 PPR), WR49 at his position, tier Bench, on the road at San Francisco 49ers.

How has Antonio Williams played in 2026?

5 games, 5.8 half-PPR points a game (7.3 PPR), WR71 in points per game among 175 WRs with 2+ games: 0/1 0 yds 0 TD · 15-155-1 on 22 tgt.

Where does Antonio Williams rank rest of season?

WR73, #183 overall, on our half-PPR board (WR72 in PPR).

What is Antonio Williams's dynasty value?

4,186 in 1QB PPR (#104 overall, WR41) as of Oct 10, 2026.

WR/Washington Commanders

Antonio Williams

Age 22.2 · Rookie · 6'0", 187 lb · Clemson · 2026 R3 #71

HealthyW6 @ SF · Mon 8:15 PMBye W7

Week 6WR496.3 proj · Bench ROS rankWR73#183 overall DynastyWR414,186 · #104

Ask the Coach Trade value Charts

Overview

Board Oct 12

Hold

Hold WR72 · 14.5% target share (62nd) · model WR82 · market WR82

The books rank him WR82, close enough to his WR72 on the 10/12 list, so he holds.

Model

WR82

Market

WR82

2026 production

WR62

Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.

Realistic range, rest of season

← If it breaks right

If it does not →

WR66

WR72 now

WR83

← If it breaks right

If it does not →

WR67

WR73 now

WR87

← If it breaks right

If it does not →

WR70

WR73 now

WR91

Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR67 to WR87. Our rank stays the call.

Rest-of-season rank on our sheets

2026 so far5 games

Points a game

5.8

WR71 of 175

Target share

14.5%

62nd of 103 WRs

Targets a game

4.4

15 catches, 155 yds

Expected PPR a game

7.8

−0.5 a game vs usage

Role: low-volume receiver

target share up from 11.8% to 18.6% (last 2 games vs the three before)
snap share up from 42% to 69% (last 2 games vs the three before)

53% of snaps (83rd of 103 WRs)

Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.

Our rest-of-season model

Half PPR/g

4.9

PPR/g

6.1

Games left

10.7

80% range 2.3–7.0 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: experience +0.2, college target/carry share -0.2, college carry share +0.2, preseason ADP -0.2. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.

Week 6

Lines Oct 14

WAS

Mon · Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

Levi's Stadium

LineSF -7.5Total50.5WAS implied21.5Rest8 days (SF 8)Forecast67°F, wind 8 mph

Our Week 6 projection

6.3pts

WR49

Bench

5.0tgt3.2rec35yds0.20TD

Updated Oct 14, 2026, built on a WAS team total of 21.5. Rank is among every WR we project this week.

San Francisco 49ers defense vs WRs

#8of 32 in fantasy points allowed to WRs (1 = stingiest)

StingiestSoftest

PPR a game

28.1

targets

17.2

rec yds

127

0.8

Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Michael Wilson (W3, 25.9 PPR, 11/17 89 yds); Jaxon Smith-Njigba (W5, 22.8 PPR, 5/8 102 yds); Ryan Miller (W2, 14.7 PPR, 1/1 77 yds).

EPA ranks entering Week 6: #13 against the pass, #8 against the run (1 = best defense).

Where SF gives up receiving fantasy points to WRs

#13

SF's average rank in the zones where Williams gets his targets, weighted by his share there (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest).

Left

Middle

Right

Deep 20+

9%1.4#14

0.0#1

9%3.6#21

Middle 10–19

2.2#14

14%1.0#3

9%2.8#21

Short 0–9

18%4.0#18

0.3#2

36%3.5#10

Behind line

5%0.8#21

0.0#1

2.9#31

StingySoft

Big number: receiving fantasy points SF allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Green tag = Antonio Williams's share of his targets in that zone this season. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.

Week 5: projected vs. actual

Projected

5.7

WR66

Actual

4.6

Difference

−1.1

3-31 rec on 3 tgt

Do defensive matchups actually matter? Our study ›

Game log

2026 · through W5

Fantasy pointsOur projection that weekSeason average 5.8

Every gametap a game for the detail

D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.

Usage

Snap shareTarget shareAir-yard share

What changedlast 3 full games vs. before

	W1, W2	W3, W4, W5	Change
Snap share	43.0%	59.3%	+16.3
Target share	11.3%	16.2%	+4.9
Air-yard share	11.0%	18.0%	+7.0
Targets a game	3.5	5.0	+1.5

Games he left injured are left out of both sides.

WAS target treeshare of team targets, 2026

Stefon Diggs

24.3%

Terry McLaurin

21.9%

Chig Okonkwo

15.9%

Antonio Williams

14.2%

Treylon Burks

9.9%

Dyami Brown

9.5%

Rachaad White

8.1%

Season to date, games each player played.

Role details2026, through Week 5

Red-zone tgt share

11%

2 red-zone targets

First-read share

11%

of targets as the QB’s first read

Air yards a game

aDOT 10.9

Snap share

52.8%

Play-action targets

27%

of his targets

Targets with motion

50%

of his targets

Screen targets

of his targets

Advanced

PoorAverageGreat

Fantasy points a game2+ games

5.8

Target share2+ games

14.2%

Air-yard share2+ games

15.1%

WOPR2+ games

0.32

First-read target share15+ targets

11.4%

Red-zone target share2+ games

11.1%

Yards per target15+ targets

7.0

EPA per target15+ targets

0.23

Separation (yds)15+ targets

2.66

YAC over expected15+ targets

−0.35

Catchable-target rate15+ targets

77.3%

Drop ratelower is better

0.0%

Average depth of targetcontext

10.9

Expected points a game2+ games

7.8

Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.

Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play

Expected PPR a game

7.8

what his targets and carries are usually worth

Actual PPR a game

7.3

Over expected

−0.5

points a game

TDs vs. expected

1/ 1.2

−0.15

1 TDs on 1.15 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›

Splits

As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5

Situation	Tgt	Rec-Yds-TD	Yds/tgt	EPA/tgt
All targets	22	15-155-1	7.08.2	0.230.27
Red zone9% of targets	2	2-17-1	8.54.4	1.860.18
Inside the 105% of targets	1	1-1-1	1.02.4	1.48-0.01
Third down36% of targets	8	4-47-1	5.97.1	-0.060.14
Score within 755% of targets	12	6-51-0	4.38.1	-0.480.26
Trailing by 8+45% of targets	10	9-104-1	10.48.2	1.080.28
Two-minute drill23% of targets	5	3-13-1	2.67.5	-0.040.17
Vs. the blitz23% of targets	5	4-40-1	8.07.9	0.850.23
No blitz77% of targets	17	11-115-0	6.88.4	0.040.29
Play action27% of targets	6	4-50-0	8.310.4	0.430.41
With motion50% of targets	11	8-77-0	7.08.3	0.340.32
Screens9% of targets	2	1-6-0	3.04.7	-0.56-0.20

Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 17 of his 22 charted targets were catchable; 1 drop, 0 of 2 contested caught.

With and withoutfantasy points a game, WAS, 2025–2026

Jayden DanielsQB · 2026

With

7.6

Without

3.1

With: 3 g, 3.3 tgt a game, 11.9% share · Without: 2 g (26·W3, 26·W4), 6.0 tgt a game, 17.8% share

Marcus MariotaQB · 2026

With

3.2

Without

7.5

With: 2 g, 3.5 tgt a game, 11.1% share · Without: 3 g (26·W1, 26·W4, 26·W5), 5.0 tgt a game, 16.3% share

Chigoziem OkonkwoTE · 2026

With

7.5

Without

3.2

With: 3 g, 5.0 tgt a game, 16.3% share · Without: 2 g (26·W2, 26·W3), 3.5 tgt a game, 11.1% share

"Without" = games he played and the teammate did not (a QB counts as playing with 10+ attempts). Games either of them left injured are left out. Small samples swing hard. Who benefits when a player gets hurt? ›

Team

WAS

Points a game

23.0

17th of 32

Plays a game

63.8

9th of 32

EPA per play

-0.015

15th of 32

Pass rate over exp.

−9.9%

27th of 32

Red-zone plays a game

9.0

22nd of 32

Motion rate

41%

26th of 32

Play-action rate

11%

17th of 32

No-huddle rate

9th of 32

Washington Commanders offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.

Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB

Week	Score	Implied	Pass rate	QB
W1vs PHI	22-24	18.8	53%−10.4	Daniels34 att
W2vs DAL	20-37	24.0	52%−15.4	Daniels17 att
W3vs SEA	33-31	16.0	52%−2.4	Mariota31 att
W4vs IND	13-30	21.0	64%−6.1	Kaliakmanis33 att
W5vs NYG	27-27	22.5	52%−14.8	Daniels25 att

Depth chartWR, Oct 14

WR1

Terry McLaurin

WR2

Stefon Diggs

WR3

Antonio Williams

WR4

Treylon Burks

WR5

Dyami Brown

WR6

Luke McCaffrey

Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs

@SF

BYE

PHI

#28

W10

@NYG

#15

W11

CIN

#11

W12

@ARI

#26

W13

@TEN

#22

W14

HOU

#31

W15

ATL

#27

W16

@MIN

W17

@JAX

#25

W18

DAL

#21

Next 4

#15

average rank

Playoffs W15–17

#19

average rank

Bye

Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›

Head coach: Dan Quinn. QB: Jayden Daniels (most pass attempts, Week 5).

Charts

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Antonio Williams is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.

Career

Points a game by season

Season by season

Year	G	Rec-Yds-TD	Pts/g	xFP/g
2026WAS	5	15-155-122 tgt, 14.2% share	5.8WR71	7.8−2.3

Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).

Health

No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.

2026 injury reportofficial, week by week

✓

•

✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.

Teammates on the report

Stefon Diggs

questionable

Jaylin Lane WR

IR (Ankle)

Marcus Mariota QB

Out (Knee - MCL)

Terry McLaurin WR

Questionable (Hamstring)

Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›

Value

Market Oct 10

1QB value

4,186

#104 overall · WR41 · tier 13

Superflex

3,286

#118 overall · WR43

30 days

+557

90 days +555

Peak

4,186

Oct 10, 2026 · 0% off

1QB dynasty value, last two years

Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.

Where his value could be in a year

2,283

3,681

6,173

Teal dot = today (4,186). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 22 valued near #104 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 112 players' worth).

Dynasty trade calculatorPrice Antonio Williams in any deal

Redraft trade calculatorRest-of-season value for this year

Dynasty profileValue cone, comps and scenarios

Profile

Draft

R3 #71

2026 · 9th WR · WAS

Age

22.2

22 at the draft

Size

6'0"

187 lb

College

Clemson

Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010

Height

6'0"

Weight

187 lb

40-yard dash

4.41s

Vertical

39.5"

Broad jump

124"

3-cone

speed

College production

Year	G	Rec-Yds-TD	Yds share	Dominator
2025Clemson	9	55-604-4	22.7%	21.9
2024Clemson	13	70-836-10	23.5%	26.5
2023Clemson	4	17-192-2	17.0%	17.6
2022Clemson	13	52-557-4	19.0%	17.9

Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.

Keep digging

His record against the closing linesMarket research in Research → Player lines

Research findingsWhat the data says about TDs, matchups, injuries and breakouts

Every player pageSearch any player, updated every week

All players · Week 6 rankings · Rest-of-season rankings · Charts · Stats · Methodology

Sources: nflverse play-by-play, weekly stats, Next Gen Stats and FTN charting (free public data); official NFL injury reports; Sleeper; GWTTKB rankings, projections and market data. Built 2026-10-14. Every number on this page comes from those files; where a stat is not on file it is left blank, never zero. Nothing here is betting advice.