Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.06 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 7.4.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 289 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR121 |
Our board has him at 59.7 points, 3.6 per game — 24.6 catches, 279 yards, 1.2 TDs. That is WR6, 271 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.6 points per game to a ceiling of 10.9, with the median at 3.6. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 271. We rank him 101 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 7.4%, with a bear case of 5.8% and a bull case of 9.8% and a full range of 3.6% to 11.6%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Drake London | 24.2% |
| Kyle Pitts | 16.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 14.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 10.3% |
| Zachariah Branch | 8.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~?, prior share 13.4%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 6.6%, p25-p75 [3.8%, 10.6%], tails [0.0%, 13.7%]. Closest comps: Hunter Renfrow 2023→2024 (LV: 13.1%→0.0%); Demarcus Robinson 2022→2023 (BAL→LA: 12.4%→14.7%); DeAndre Carter 2022→2023 (LAC→LV: 10.0%→3.6%).
arrival self-anchored 32% to own 13.4% role (2yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +38.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 2024 | 5.4 | 67% | -18.4% |
| Josh Reynolds | 2023 | 8.1 | 60% | -23.8% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2024 | 9.7 | 60% | -27.8% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2022 | 6.5 | 57% | +42.7% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2024 | 8.1 | 57% | -53.6% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Career PPR per game | 5.9 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 15.6% |
| Bust rate | 35.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.2 |
His best game was Week 9 against CIN — 17.8 PPR on 8 targets and a 23.5% target share, in a game that finished 47-42. His worst was Week 15 against CLE at 0, on 3 targets, final score 31-3. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.1; in the 6 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.4 points per game. He scored 6.06, 19.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 8.2 | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 20.6% | 45% |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 15.2% | 44% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 6.6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 14.3% | 58% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 9.1 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 16.7% | 60% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 4.8 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 20.7% | 84% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 2.9 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 12% | 52% |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 10.3 | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 | 20% | 60% |
| 9 | CIN | 47-42 | 17.8 | 6 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 23.5% | 64% |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 11.1% | 57% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.3% | 35% |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9.4% | 28% |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 8.7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 10.7% | 79% |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 82% |
| 16 | GB | 22-16 | 5.3 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 17.2% | 86% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 313 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.06 |
| Yards per target | 4.82 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Yards per carry | 6.25 |
| Snap share | 59.57% |
| Target share | 14.7% |
| Air-yards share | 11.52% |
| WOPR | 0.301 |
| RACR | 0.837 |
| Average depth of target | 6.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Total YAC | 138 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.27 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.3% |
| End-zone target share | 8.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.72 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.28 |
The offense threw it 574 times. He took 12.26% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 12.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.57 in those and 7.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 16 against PHI — 24 PPR on 8 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 36-33. His worst was Week 8 against CHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 18-15. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.7; in the 5 decided by more, 6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.3 points per game. He scored 7.15, 2.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 20-37 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12.5% | 44% |
| 2 | NYG | 21-18 | 4.4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10.3% | 33% |
| 4 | ARI | 42-14 | 14.5 | 6 | 6 | 85 | 0 | 20% | 25% |
| 5 | CLE | 34-13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11.1% | 51% |
| 6 | BAL | 23-30 | 6.7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 18.2% | 39% |
| 7 | CAR | 40-7 | 6.5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 24% | 42% |
| 8 | CHI | 18-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 35% |
| 9 | NYG | 27-22 | 6.8 | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 10.5% | 39% |
| 10 | PIT | 27-28 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9.4% | 25% |
| 11 | PHI | 18-26 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.3% | 42% |
| 12 | DAL | 26-34 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.9% | 34% |
| 13 | TEN | 42-19 | 4.4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 10% | 35% |
| 15 | NO | 20-19 | 6.6 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 12.9% | 49% |
| 16 | PHI | 36-33 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 70 | 2 | 22.2% | 69% |
| 17 | ATL | 30-24 | 23.3 | 8 | 9 | 85 | 1 | 25.7% | 76% |
| 18 | DAL | 23-19 | 7.1 | 2 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 16.7% | 69% |
| Receptions | 45 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receiving yards | 506 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 7.15 |
| Yards per target | 7.91 |
| Catch rate | 70.31% |
| Yards per carry | 8 |
| Snap share | 44.19% |
| Target share | 13.29% |
| Air-yards share | 11.17% |
| WOPR | 0.278 |
| RACR | 2.158 |
| Average depth of target | 6.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.9 |
| Total YAC | 284 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.57 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 10 |
| Red-zone target share | 11.1% |
| End-zone target share | 8.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
The offense threw it 525 times. He took 12.72% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 23.26% |
| Zach Ertz | 18.09% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 12.72% |
| Noah Brown | 11.13% |
| Austin Ekeler | 8.15% |
| Dyami Brown | 7.95% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 14 | 53 | 7.2 | 8.11 | 12.29% |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 11 | 6.8 | 6.91 | 20.35% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 26.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.98 in those and 7.68 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against TB — 13.8 PPR on 3 targets and a 8.6% target share, in a game that finished 25-11. His worst was Week 16 against NYG at 0, on 1 targets, final score 33-25. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.4; in the 4 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 3.49, 10.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 13.8 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 1 | 8.6% | 55% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 2.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5.9% | 86% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4.7% | 81% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 57% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.7% | 48% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 9.5% | 42% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 39% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 9.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 | 3.6% | 27% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 3.6% | 27% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 24% |
| 18 | NYG | 10-27 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12.1% | 82% |
| Receptions | 10 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 164 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.49 |
| Yards per target | 8.2 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 51.64% |
| Target share | 5.87% |
| Air-yards share | 5.99% |
| WOPR | 0.131 |
| RACR | 0.655 |
| Average depth of target | 10.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 52 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.01 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.5% |
| End-zone target share | 8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.55 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.55 |
The offense threw it 562 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 16 | 3.44 | 9 | 5.25% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 12.1% |
2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.9 in those and 2.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against WAS — 14.1 PPR on 8 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 13-19. His worst was Week 15 against NO at 0, on 3 targets, final score 18-21. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 4 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 6.88, 5.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.43 expected, a gap of 1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 26-27 | 6.9 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 12.5% | 60% |
| 2 | LA | 27-31 | 10.1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 1 | 8% | 43% |
| 3 | SEA | 27-23 | 6.9 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 10.5% | 67% |
| 4 | CLE | 23-20 | 7.5 | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 | 11.1% | 56% |
| 5 | TB | 15-21 | 11.9 | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 16.7% | 67% |
| 6 | SF | 28-14 | 9.8 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 28.6% | 74% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-35 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 33.3% | 62% |
| 8 | CAR | 37-34 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.6% | 81% |
| 9 | LAC | 17-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 8.7% | 70% |
| 10 | CAR | 15-25 | 5.4 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 13.8% | 76% |
| 11 | CHI | 27-24 | 3.2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | 76% |
| 12 | WAS | 13-19 | 14.1 | 5 | 8 | 91 | 0 | 33.3% | 74% |
| 13 | PIT | 16-19 | 3.3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 20.8% | 87% |
| 15 | NO | 18-21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11.5% | 81% |
| 16 | BAL | 9-17 | 5.8 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 22.6% | 92% |
| 18 | TB | 30-17 | 13.7 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 25% | 62% |
| Receptions | 40 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 533 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 7 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.88 |
| Yards per target | 8.74 |
| Catch rate | 65.57% |
| Yards per carry | 3.5 |
| Snap share | 70.5% |
| Target share | 16.94% |
| Air-yards share | 21.57% |
| WOPR | 0.405 |
| RACR | 0.832 |
| Average depth of target | 11.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.6 |
| Total YAC | 189 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 109.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.48 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.2% |
| End-zone target share | 4.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.57 |
The offense threw it 415 times. He took 15.33% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Drake London | 29.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 15.33% |
| Kyle Pitts | 14.82% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7.79% |
| Damiere Byrd | 5.78% |
| MyCole Pruitt | 5.28% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 13 | 44 | 6.96 | 10.86 | 16.31% |
| Desmond Ridder | 3 | 17 | 6.5 | 3.24 | 19.7% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 5.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.1 in those and 6.25 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against NO — 20.8 PPR on 3 targets and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 27-25. His worst was Week 12 against JAX at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 21-14. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.3; in the 7 decided by more, 5.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.1 points per game. He scored 5.99, 2.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | TB | 25-48 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 8.3% | 58% |
| 3 | NYG | 17-14 | 12.2 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 | 16.7% | 69% |
| 4 | WAS | 30-34 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 7.5% | 80% |
| 5 | NYJ | 27-20 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 8.9% | 85% |
| 7 | MIA | 30-28 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.6% | 19% |
| 8 | CAR | 13-19 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3.7% | 40% |
| 9 | NO | 27-25 | 20.8 | 3 | 3 | 58 | 2 | 10% | 49% |
| 10 | DAL | 3-43 | 4.2 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 25.9% | 43% |
| 11 | NE | 0-25 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 16.1% | 46% |
| 12 | JAX | 21-14 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.1% | 50% |
| 13 | TB | 17-30 | 7.6 | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 12.5% | 61% |
| 15 | SF | 13-31 | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 6.7% | 62% |
| 16 | DET | 20-16 | 5.2 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 18.2% | 87% |
| 17 | BUF | 15-29 | 2.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 15% | 96% |
| 18 | NO | 20-30 | 7.7 | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 9.7% | 78% |
| Receptions | 31 |
| Targets | 53 |
| Receiving yards | 406 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.99 |
| Yards per target | 7.66 |
| Catch rate | 58.49% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 61.53% |
| Target share | 11.26% |
| Air-yards share | 13.53% |
| WOPR | 0.264 |
| RACR | 0.835 |
| Average depth of target | 9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Total YAC | 94 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.77 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.6% |
| End-zone target share | 15.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.23 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.77 |
The offense threw it 573 times. He took 9.74% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Kyle Pitts | 20.22% |
| Russell Gage | 17.28% |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 12.68% |
| Mike Davis | 10.66% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 9.74% |
| Calvin Ridley | 9.56% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 23.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.25 in those and 6.34 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against DEN — 20.3 PPR on 6 targets and a 17.1% target share, in a game that finished 34-27. His worst was Week 7 against DET at 0, on 0 targets, final score 22-23. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 5 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 5.34, 7.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 25-38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 2 | DAL | 39-40 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.8% | 21% |
| 3 | CHI | 26-30 | 8.1 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 15.8% | 79% |
| 4 | GB | 16-30 | 16.6 | 8 | 9 | 86 | 0 | 23.1% | 76% |
| 5 | CAR | 16-23 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 11.4% | 97% |
| 6 | MIN | 40-23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.4% | 18% |
| 7 | DET | 22-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 9 | DEN | 34-27 | 20.3 | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 | 17.1% | 73% |
| 11 | NO | 9-24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 2.9% | 21% |
| 12 | LV | 43-6 | 2.1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 8.1% | 15% |
| Receptions | 20 |
| Targets | 32 |
| Receiving yards | 274 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.34 |
| Yards per target | 8.56 |
| Catch rate | 62.5% |
| Snap share | 42.9% |
| Target share | 8.66% |
| Air-yards share | 13.31% |
| WOPR | 0.224 |
| RACR | 0.513 |
| Average depth of target | 13.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.6 |
| Total YAC | 63 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 87.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.24 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.18 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.45 |
The offense threw it 628 times. He took 5.42% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Calvin Ridley | 24.24% |
| Russell Gage | 18.47% |
| Hayden Hurst | 14.92% |
| Julio Jones | 11.53% |
| Todd Gurley | 5.93% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ← | 5.42% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 3.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.05 in those and 6.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Olamide Zaccheaus →