Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.35 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.2, usage worth 4.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.7 |
| FFA | 249 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR129 |
Our board has him at 88.7 points, 5.4 per game — 34.1 catches, 426 yards, 2 TDs. That is WR6, 235 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.5 points per game to a ceiling of 9.9, with the median at 5.4. Boom rate 83%, bust rate 53%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.2 on consensus and our board has him 235. We rank him 64.8 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Atlanta Falcons returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Michael Penix Jr at quarterback, Kevin Stefanski as head coach, Tommy Rees calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.2 rushes.
In: Tua Tagovailoa (qb2), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr2), Zachariah Branch (wr3), Jahan Dotson (wr4), Brian Robinson Jr (rb2), Tyler Goodson (rb3), Carter Nathan (rb4), Austin Hooper (te2). Out: Kirk Cousins (qb2), Darnell Mooney (wr2), David Sills V (wr4), Ray-Ray McCloud III (wr5), Dylan Drummond (wr6), Khadarel Hodge (wr7), Tyler Allgeier (rb2), Nathan Carter (rb3), Charlie Woerner (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.8%, with a bear case of 3.3% and a bull case of 7% and a full range of 3.3% to 8.4%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Drake London | 24.2% |
| Kyle Pitts | 16.9% |
| Bijan Robinson | 14.5% |
| Austin Hooper | 10.3% |
| Zachariah Branch | 8.4% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Bijan Robinson has been able to produce redardless of poor QB play in ATL. Drake London has had flashes & the talent is clearly there, but needs better QB play. Perhaps Penix Jr fully recovers from 2nd ACL tear & proves he is the franchise QB. OR there is a SMALL chance Tua turns his career around and can elevate this offense. Unlikely. Despite what most fans think, the falcons have not committed to a starting QB, there is a decent chance their franchise QB is neither Penix or Tua.
Key additions: Tua Tagovailoa signed on 1 year veteran minumum deal. WR Jahan Dotson 2 year $15M deal. TE Austin Hooper 1 year deal to back up Pitts. WR Olamide Zaccheaus returns to ATL. OL Jawaan Taylor signed 1 year deal. Zachariah Branch WR Georgia 3rd Round draft pick.
Key departures: Drew Dalman (starting Center) left to Chicago Bears & RT Kaleb McGary retired aftr missing entire 2025 season. Elijah Wilkinson Starting RT left in free agency. Kirk Cousins left to Las Vegas. Tyler Allgeier left to Arizona. WR Darnell Mooney released after regression & heads to NY Giants.
Notes: Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa after release from Dolphins. Penix may be ready week 1 but possible he is no longer the starter. This will be determined in camp. New HC: Kevin Stefanski from Browns. Tommy Rees is new OC. Followed Stefanski from Cleveland. Bijan & London are core offensive players. Pitts wants long term exension, but was franchise tagged (could be traded). Branch round 3 Georgia WR adds speed & could produce early. Brian Robinson Jr is a valuable handcuff for Bijan Robinson but shouldn't have stand alone value. London clear WR1, Zaccheaus returns in free agency. Jahan Dotson (former 1st round pick) added in free agency. Zachariah Branch could see large volume as a rookie if develops quickly. QB play may still hold team back. Olamide Zaccheaus is a player that should be rostered in all leagues as a real sleeper. Highly productive player in Chicago that COULD pop early if Branch is a slow bloomer & Dotson is a nothing burger.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Michael Penix Jr returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.1 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Tommy Rees — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Kevin Stefanski.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 9.4%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 4.9%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 7.4%], tails [0.0%, 10.2%]. Closest comps: Tajae Sharpe 2021→2022 (ATL: 9.5%→0.0%); Scott Miller 2022→2023 (TB→ATL: 8.9%→5.8%); Shi Smith 2022→2023 (CAR: 10.6%→0.0%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 9.4% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: ATL rates 21.5 against a league average of 23, 1.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.4 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.6 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | Dyami Brown | +6.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +19.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 2023 | 3 | 66% | +39% |
| Elijah Moore | 2024 | 7.1 | 64% | -32.2% |
| Chase Claypool | 2023 | 2 | 64% | -44% |
| Rashod Bateman | 2023 | 5.1 | 63% | +46.5% |
| Terrace Marshall | 2023 | 4.1 | 62% | -11.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 1, pick 16 by WAS |
| College | Penn St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 178 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 121″ |
| 3-cone | 7.28s |
| Career PPR per game | 6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.1 |
| Boom rate | 17.4% |
| Bust rate | 32.6% |
| Games missed per season | 1 |
| Injury history | Hamstring |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.22 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 8 against NYG — 11 PPR on 2 targets and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 38-20. His worst was Week 17 against BUF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-12. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.7; in the 4 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 3.35, 20.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24-20 | 8.9 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 15% | 46% |
| 2 | KC | 20-17 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4.8% | 37% |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 1.7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | 78% |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 54% |
| 5 | DEN | 17-21 | 3.4 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 8.1% | 72% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-34 | 2.7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6.3% | 75% |
| 8 | NYG | 38-20 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 10% | 71% |
| 10 | GB | 10-7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.3% | 30% |
| 11 | DET | 16-9 | 6.3 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 7.4% | 32% |
| 12 | DAL | 21-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.8% | 54% |
| 13 | CHI | 15-24 | 2.2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | 59% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-22 | 1.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7.9% | 49% |
| 16 | WAS | 29-18 | 4.3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10.3% | 66% |
| 17 | BUF | 13-12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 48% |
| 18 | WAS | 17-24 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 23.5% | 94% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 262 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 3.35 |
| Yards per target | 7.28 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 57.67% |
| Target share | 8.33% |
| Air-yards share | 13.82% |
| WOPR | 0.222 |
| RACR | 0.419 |
| Average depth of target | 15.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.8 |
| Total YAC | 50 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 48.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.1% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.75 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.75 |
The offense threw it 497 times. He took 7.76% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 26.08% |
| DeVonta Smith | 24.35% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.67% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.78% |
| Jahan Dotson ← | 7.76% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2.8% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 28 | 3.09 | 7.93 | 7.24% |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 23.5% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.85 in those and 2.73 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against NYG — 16.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 26.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-13. His worst was Week 15 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-13. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.7; in the 5 decided by more, 1.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 2.99, 16.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 42% |
| 2 | ATL | 21-22 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.4% | 79% |
| 3 | NO | 15-12 | 2.8 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8.3% | 87% |
| 4 | TB | 16-33 | 3.1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13.8% | 86% |
| 6 | CLE | 20-16 | 3.3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12.5% | 35% |
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 58% |
| 9 | JAX | 28-23 | 4.6 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 4.3% | 53% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 3.7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 5% | 44% |
| 11 | WAS | 26-18 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 8% | 41% |
| 12 | LA | 37-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.3% | 68% |
| 13 | BAL | 24-19 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5.9% | 64% |
| 14 | CAR | 22-16 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10.5% | 41% |
| 15 | PIT | 27-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 45% |
| 18 | NYG | 20-13 | 16.4 | 7 | 11 | 94 | 0 | 26.8% | 94% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 33 |
| Receiving yards | 216 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 13 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.99 |
| Yards per target | 6.55 |
| Catch rate | 57.58% |
| Yards per carry | 13 |
| Snap share | 59.79% |
| Target share | 8.39% |
| Air-yards share | 10.46% |
| WOPR | 0.199 |
| RACR | 0.96 |
| Average depth of target | 9.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.6 |
| Total YAC | 72 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 77.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.08 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.05 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.5% |
| End-zone target share | 3.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.42 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.58 |
The offense threw it 448 times. He took 7.91% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson ← | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 22 | 1.96 | 5.55 | 6.98% |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 11 | 16.4 | 8.55 | 26.8% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 19.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.05 in those and 3.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against PHI — 24.8 PPR on 10 targets and a 19.6% target share, in a game that finished 31-38. His worst was Week 17 against SF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 7 decided by more, 5.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.4 points per game. He scored 7.34, 12.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 2 against 3.19 expected, a gap of -1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 20-16 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 24.1% | 87% |
| 2 | DEN | 35-33 | 5.2 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 14.7% | 85% |
| 3 | BUF | 3-37 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13.8% | 94% |
| 4 | PHI | 31-34 | 12.7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 23.1% | 72% |
| 5 | CHI | 20-40 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 10.4% | 80% |
| 6 | ATL | 24-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 80% |
| 7 | NYG | 7-14 | 9.3 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 22.2% | 84% |
| 8 | PHI | 31-38 | 24.8 | 8 | 10 | 108 | 1 | 19.6% | 85% |
| 9 | NE | 20-17 | 16.9 | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 18.2% | 76% |
| 10 | SEA | 26-29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4.8% | 95% |
| 11 | NYG | 19-31 | 11.3 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 9.5% | 79% |
| 12 | DAL | 10-45 | 10.2 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 | 13.6% | 85% |
| 13 | MIA | 15-45 | 4.3 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 22.7% | 82% |
| 15 | LA | 20-28 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.9% | 77% |
| 16 | NYJ | 28-30 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 12.5% | 74% |
| 17 | SF | 10-27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 85% |
| 18 | DAL | 10-38 | 3.7 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 10.7% | 84% |
| Receptions | 49 |
| Targets | 83 |
| Receiving yards | 518 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.34 |
| Yards per target | 6.24 |
| Catch rate | 59.04% |
| Snap share | 82.59% |
| Target share | 13.61% |
| Air-yards share | 15.51% |
| WOPR | 0.312 |
| RACR | 0.611 |
| Average depth of target | 9.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Total YAC | 115 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 58.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.94 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.4% |
| End-zone target share | 24.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.19 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 50 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 47 of 51 |
| Target share | 51 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 48 of 51 |
The offense threw it 636 times. He took 13.83% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 22% |
| Curtis Samuel | 15.17% |
| Jahan Dotson ← | 13.83% |
| Logan Thomas | 13% |
| Antonio Gibson | 9.83% |
| Brian Robinson | 7.17% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 22.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.72 in those and 8.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against NYG — 20.5 PPR on 6 targets and a 22.2% target share, in a game that finished 12-20. His worst was Week 12 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 19-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.7; in the 8 decided by more, 9.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.7 points per game. He scored 10.88, 25.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 2.18 expected, a gap of 2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 28-22 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 2 | 12.2% | 88% |
| 2 | DET | 27-36 | 17.9 | 4 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 11.4% | 99% |
| 3 | PHI | 8-24 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 19% | 87% |
| 4 | DAL | 10-25 | 13.3 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 10% | 59% |
| 10 | PHI | 32-21 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | 41% |
| 11 | HOU | 23-10 | 2.6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 8.7% | 66% |
| 12 | ATL | 19-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.5% | 61% |
| 13 | NYG | 20-20 | 16.4 | 5 | 9 | 54 | 1 | 22.5% | 79% |
| 15 | NYG | 12-20 | 20.5 | 4 | 6 | 105 | 1 | 22.2% | 79% |
| 16 | SF | 20-37 | 19.6 | 6 | 9 | 76 | 1 | 26.5% | 86% |
| 17 | CLE | 10-24 | 6.7 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 25% | 77% |
| 18 | DAL | 26-6 | 10.2 | 3 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 22.2% | 74% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 61 |
| Receiving yards | 523 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | -7 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 10.88 |
| Yards per target | 8.57 |
| Catch rate | 57.38% |
| Yards per carry | -3.5 |
| Snap share | 74.67% |
| Target share | 15.68% |
| Air-yards share | 25.38% |
| WOPR | 0.412 |
| RACR | 0.658 |
| Average depth of target | 13.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11 |
| Total YAC | 137 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.82 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.9% |
| End-zone target share | 27.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.82 |
The offense threw it 554 times. He took 11.49% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Terry McLaurin | 22.6% |
| Curtis Samuel | 17.33% |
| Logan Thomas | 11.49% |
| Jahan Dotson ← | 11.49% |
| Antonio Gibson | 10.92% |
| J.D. McKissic | 7.53% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 6 | 28 | 10.25 | 9.36 | 14.73% |
| Carson Wentz | 5 | 29 | 11.78 | 6.52 | 15.52% |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 4 | 10.2 | 18 | 22.2% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 22.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.9 in those and 13.72 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Jahan Dotson →