Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.36 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 209.2, usage worth 6.5.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 248 |
| ESPN | 170.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.5 |
| FFA | 225 |
| Goes around | Round 18, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB125 |
| ADP standard deviation | 54.9 picks |
Our board has him at 58.1 points, 3.6 per game — 314 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, 7.2 catches. That is RB6, 220 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.8 points per game to a ceiling of 8.6, with the median at 3.6. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 51%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 209.2 on consensus and our board has him 220. We rank him 10.8 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| De'Von Achane | 56.6% |
| Jaylen Wright ← | 27.7% |
| Ollie Gordon II | 12.9% |
| Donovan Edwards | 2.8% |
Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr
Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.
Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.
| Projected carry share | 27.7% |
| Projected carries per game | 5.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 101 |
| Last season, carries per game | 7.8 |
That is a reduction of 1.9 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -19% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamir White | 2023 | 5.7 | 78% | -34.3% |
| Alexander Mattison | 2020 | 6.7 | 74% | +23.4% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2022 | 6.4 | 73% | +43.4% |
| Joshua Kelley | 2020 | 6.2 | 72% | -2.4% |
| Zamir White | 2024 | 3.7 | 72% | -27% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 4, pick 120 by MIA |
| College | Tennessee |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 210 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.38s |
| Vertical | 38″ |
| Broad jump | 134″ |
His best game was Week 14 against NYJ — 16.7 PPR on 27 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 34-10. His worst was Week 11 against WAS at 0.4, on 1 touches, final score 16-13. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.5; in the 6 decided by more, 6.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.5 points per game. He scored 5.36, 17.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ATL | 34-10 | 3.8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 3.7% | 16% |
| 10 | BUF | 30-13 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 11 | WAS | 16-13 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| 13 | NO | 21-17 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 14 | NYJ | 34-10 | 16.7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 107 | 1 | 14.3% | 52% |
| 15 | PIT | 15-28 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.8% | 8% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-45 | 12.3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 6.9% | 31% |
| 17 | TB | 20-17 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 18 | NE | 10-38 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 23 | 0 | 8.3% | 46% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 9 |
| Receiving yards | 44 |
| Carries | 70 |
| Rushing yards | 288 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.36 |
| Yards per target | 4.89 |
| Catch rate | 55.56% |
| Yards per carry | 4.11 |
| Snap share | 22.11% |
| Target share | 4.11% |
| Air-yards share | -3.06% |
| WOPR | 0.04 |
| RACR | -0.521 |
| Average depth of target | -3.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.2 |
| Total YAC | 60 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 68.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.63 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 17.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.12 |
The offense threw it 479 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 22.22% |
| De'Von Achane | 18.89% |
| Malik Washington | 14.44% |
| Darren Waller | 7.56% |
| Greg Dulcich | 7.33% |
| Tyreek Hill | 6.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 5 | 4.38 | 1.8 | 3.63% |
| Quinn Ewers | 3 | 4 | 7.3 | 8.75 | 5.07% |
5 of his 9 games were blowouts, 79.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.7 in those and 2.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against NE — 8.6 PPR on 13 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 15-10. His worst was Week 18 against NYJ at -0.4, on 6 touches, final score 20-32. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.8; in the 6 decided by more, 1.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.1 points per game. He scored 2.05, 49.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 10-31 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 3 | SEA | 3-24 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 4 | TEN | 12-31 | 3.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 4.8% | 47% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 86 | 0 | 0% | 32% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 8 | ARI | 27-28 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2.9% | 26% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 2.5% | 19% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6.7% | 19% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | -0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 8 |
| Carries | 68 |
| Rushing yards | 249 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.05 |
| Yards per target | 1.33 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Yards per carry | 3.66 |
| Snap share | 19.31% |
| Target share | 1.3% |
| Air-yards share | -0.15% |
| WOPR | 0.018 |
| RACR | 0.011 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 8 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 56.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.22 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.32 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.32 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.2 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 8 | 5 | 1.29 | 1.6 | 1.51% |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | 1 | 3.8 | 0 | 1.6% |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 0 | 1.7 | — | 0% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 0 | 3.3 | — | 0% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 22.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.53 in those and 2.77 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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