Caleb Douglas
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR50 to WR71. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far2 games
- 50% of MIA's red-zone targets (1st of 103 WRs)
- 89% of snaps (11th of 103 WRs)
- 5.28 yards of separation (NGS) (1st of 99 WRs)
Ranked among 103 qualified WRs this season.
80% range 2.9–9.1 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: final college season +0.4, game script (spreads) +0.3, college target/carry share -0.2, experience +0.2. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Miami Dolphins are on bye in Week 6. Next up: Week 7 at New York Jets, Oct 25.
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
MIA +3 (closing) · total 40.5 · indoors · 7 days rest
Projected 6.8 (WR59) · MIA +12.5 (closing) · total 44.5 · 69°F, wind 5 mph · 7 days rest
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
MIA target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Role details2026, through Week 5
Advanced
Percentile against the WRs on our charts (each stat's minimum is next to it), 2026 through Week 5. 50 is the middle of the pack. Tap a bubble for his rank.
Expected vs. actualPPR, from this season's play-by-play
0 TDs on 0.22 expected. Expected points price every target by depth and field position and every carry by field position. Do touchdowns regress? ›
Leaderboardstop 10 among WRs, 2026
Splits
As a receiver2026 charted plays, through Week 5
| Situation | Tgt | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds/tgt | EPA/tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All targets | 10 | 7-113-0 | 11.38.2 | 0.350.27 |
| Red zone10% of targets | 1 | 1-8-0 | 8.04.4 | 1.080.18 |
| Third down60% of targets | 6 | 4-45-0 | 7.57.1 | 0.230.14 |
| Score within 710% of targets | 1 | 1-12-0 | 12.08.1 | 0.150.26 |
| Trailing by 8+90% of targets | 9 | 6-101-0 | 11.28.2 | 0.370.28 |
| Two-minute drill30% of targets | 3 | 3-52-0 | 17.37.5 | 1.190.17 |
| Vs. the blitz20% of targets | 2 | 1-8-0 | 4.07.9 | -0.010.23 |
| No blitz80% of targets | 8 | 6-105-0 | 13.18.4 | 0.440.29 |
| Play action10% of targets | 1 | 0-0-0 | 0.010.4 | -2.300.41 |
| With motion70% of targets | 7 | 5-70-0 | 10.08.3 | 0.410.32 |
Small grey number = every WR in that situation. Green or red = a clear gap either way. 8 of his 10 charted targets were catchable; 1 drop, 1 of 1 contested caught.
Team
MIAMiami Dolphins offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs LV | 13-27 | 18.8 | 64%−10.9 | Willis27 att |
| W2vs SF | 13-35 | 16.0 | 48%−19.5 | Willis23 att |
| W3vs KC | 10-24 | 17.8 | 54%−15.8 | Willis36 att |
| W4vs MIN | 10-15 | 14.3 | 51%−13.3 | Willis17 att |
| W5vs CIN | 24-31 | 18.8 | 47%−25.9 | Willis27 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Jeff Hafley. QB: Malik Willis (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Charts
Caleb Douglas is highlighted on each chart. Swipe for more; tap a dot for the player. Every chart saves and shares as an image on the Charts page.
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026MIA | 2 | 7-113-010 tgt, 19.5% share | 7.4WR52 | 8.4+1.5 |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
Out (Ankle) on Sleeper, Oct 10.
Typical case for this injury (not him): ankle: median 1 game missed; 16% run past 3 games; first game back averages -0.7 PPR vs his own pre-injury baseline (n=219 spells)
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (3,892). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 23 valued near #120 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 129 players' worth).
170.3 overall, WR133. ESPN 170.3 · Underdog 208.6
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Texas Tech | 13 | 53-830-7 | 22.1% | 21.7 |
| 2024Texas Tech | 12 | 55-765-6 | 21.4% | 20.7 |
| 2023Florida | 4 | 11-133-1 | 13.3% | 16.7 |
| 2022Florida | 4 | 8-150-2 | 13.2% | 16.6 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.