Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 20.17 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 12.8, usage worth 17.8.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 12 |
| ESPN | 12.3 |
| YAHOO | 15.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 17.6 |
| CBS | 11.2 |
| FFA | 17 |
| Goes around | Round 1, pick 13 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB6 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 2 picks |
Our board has him at 245.9 points, 15.4 per game — 1,067 rushing yards, 5.4 rushing TDs, 50.4 catches. That is RB2, 17 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 12.2 points per game to a ceiling of 22.7, with the median at 15.4. Boom rate 47%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 12.8 on consensus and our board has him 17. We rank him 4.2 picks worse than the room drafts him, so at ADP he is mildly overpriced. That is an objection to the price and not to the player — if he falls past his slot he can be exactly the right pick.
Talented enough to never fully fade, but Miami is a bottom-3 team with a backloaded brutal schedule (toughest final 5 weeks), McDaniel gone, and tank risk during the fantasy playoffs. Below-weight; fade at the tail-1st price in main redraft.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.
In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| De'Von Achane ← | 56.6% |
| Jaylen Wright | 27.7% |
| Ollie Gordon II | 12.9% |
| Donovan Edwards | 2.8% |
Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr
Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.
Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.
| Projected carry share | 56.6% |
| Projected carries per game | 12.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 206 |
| Last season, carries per game | 14.9 |
That is a reduction of 2.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +0.6 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -3 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +8.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 2021 | 21.5 | 59% | 0% |
| Kenneth Walker | 2024 | 16.5 | 56% | +10.4% |
| D'Andre Swift | 2021 | 16.1 | 54% | -16% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 2024 | 21.3 | 54% | +24.2% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2022 | 14.7 | 52% | +1.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 1 lost it and 2 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 84 by MIA |
| College | Texas A&M |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′9″ |
| Weight | 188 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.32s |
| Vertical | 33″ |
| Career PPR per game | 17.5 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 17.1% |
| Bust rate | 17.1% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Shoulder |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.19 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 10 against BUF — 40.5 PPR on 28 touches and a 28.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-13. His worst was Week 7 against CLE at 12.8, on 18 touches, final score 6-31. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.9; in the 9 decided by more, 19.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17.8 points per game. He scored 20.17, 13.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 8-33 | 16.5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 7 | 55 | 1 | 12.9% | 73% |
| 2 | NE | 27-33 | 26.2 | 8 | 10 | 92 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 31.3% | 93% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-31 | 16.1 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 12 | 62 | 0 | 27.3% | 77% |
| 4 | NYJ | 27-21 | 17.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 99 | 1 | 8% | 76% |
| 5 | CAR | 24-27 | 16.6 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 20.6% | 87% |
| 6 | LAC | 27-29 | 31 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 16 | 128 | 2 | 20% | 85% |
| 7 | CLE | 6-31 | 12.8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 82 | 0 | 16.7% | 55% |
| 8 | ATL | 34-10 | 20.1 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 18 | 67 | 1 | 25.9% | 67% |
| 9 | BAL | 6-28 | 16.6 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 27% | 91% |
| 10 | BUF | 30-13 | 40.5 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 22 | 174 | 2 | 28.6% | 89% |
| 11 | WAS | 16-13 | 21.5 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 21 | 120 | 0 | 25% | 80% |
| 13 | NO | 21-17 | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 134 | 1 | 5% | 73% |
| 14 | NYJ | 34-10 | 17.5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 92 | 1 | 4.8% | 34% |
| 15 | PIT | 15-28 | 18.7 | 6 | 6 | 67 | 12 | 60 | 0 | 23.1% | 80% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-45 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 81 | 1 | 10.3% | 71% |
| 17 | TB | 20-17 | 14.2 | 3 | 3 | 29 | 18 | 83 | 0 | 13.6% | 75% |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Targets | 85 |
| Receiving yards | 488 |
| Carries | 238 |
| Rushing yards | 1,350 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 20.17 |
| Yards per target | 5.74 |
| Catch rate | 78.82% |
| Yards per carry | 5.67 |
| Snap share | 75.38% |
| Target share | 18.76% |
| Air-yards share | 1.07% |
| WOPR | 0.289 |
| RACR | -4.113 |
| Average depth of target | 0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 552 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 96.5 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.64 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.88 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.2% |
| End-zone target share | 8.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 46.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 31.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.43 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.73 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 26 of 49 |
| Target share | 3 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 9 of 49 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 18.89% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 22.22% |
| De'Von Achane ← | 18.89% |
| Malik Washington | 14.44% |
| Darren Waller | 7.56% |
| Greg Dulcich | 7.33% |
| Tyreek Hill | 6.44% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 14 | 79 | 20.76 | 5.7 | 19.73% |
| Quinn Ewers | 2 | 6 | 16.1 | 6.33 | 11.95% |
7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 44% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.29 in those and 20.86 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 9 against BUF — 32.1 PPR on 20 touches and a 29.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-30. His worst was Week 5 against NE at 2.7, on 4 touches, final score 15-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 9 decided by more, 17.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 17.64, 12.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.51 expected, a gap of 2.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-17 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 76 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 19.4% | 52% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-31 | 29.5 | 7 | 7 | 69 | 22 | 96 | 1 | 18.9% | 62% |
| 3 | SEA | 3-24 | 8.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 16.1% | 74% |
| 4 | TEN | 12-31 | 5.9 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 14.3% | 73% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 2.7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 3.2% | 14% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 10.5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 77 | 0 | 13.6% | 58% |
| 8 | ARI | 27-28 | 26.7 | 6 | 8 | 50 | 10 | 97 | 1 | 21.1% | 58% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 32.1 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 12 | 63 | 2 | 29.6% | 69% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 10.2 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 17.9% | 70% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 20.5 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 73 | 1 | 11.4% | 62% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 20.6 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 10% | 53% |
| 13 | GB | 17-30 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 19.6% | 69% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 18.9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 14 | 24 | 1 | 15.6% | 83% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 14.6 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 12 | 41 | 0 | 17.9% | 66% |
| 16 | SF | 29-17 | 31 | 6 | 7 | 70 | 17 | 120 | 1 | 22.6% | 75% |
| 17 | CLE | 20-3 | 5.8 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 0 | 8.3% | 53% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | 18.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 0% | 70% |
| Receptions | 78 |
| Targets | 87 |
| Receiving yards | 592 |
| Carries | 203 |
| Rushing yards | 907 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 17.64 |
| Yards per target | 6.8 |
| Catch rate | 89.66% |
| Yards per carry | 4.47 |
| Snap share | 62.41% |
| Target share | 15.26% |
| Air-yards share | -1.47% |
| WOPR | 0.219 |
| RACR | -0.576 |
| Average depth of target | -0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.9 |
| Total YAC | 665 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 118 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.4 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.66 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.5% |
| End-zone target share | 3.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 53.5% |
| Goal-line carry share | 70% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.49 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.75 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 6 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 46 |
| Target share | 2 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 46 |
The offense threw it 591 times. He took 15.65% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane ← | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 11 | 73 | 22.55 | 7.26 | 18.55% |
| Tyler Huntley | 4 | 6 | 8.13 | 4.33 | 6.45% |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 5 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 16.1% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 3 | 10.5 | 2.67 | 13.6% |
5 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.12 in those and 17.34 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 3 against DEN — 51.3 PPR on 22 touches and a 14.3% target share, in a game that finished 70-20. His worst was Week 11 against LV at 1.5, on 2 touches, final score 20-13. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 6 decided by more, 26.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.8 points per game. He scored 17.34, 52% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.9 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NE | 24-17 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.4% | 10% |
| 3 | DEN | 70-20 | 51.3 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 18 | 203 | 4 | 14.3% | 41% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-48 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 8 | 101 | 2 | 14.7% | 60% |
| 5 | NYG | 31-16 | 21.5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 151 | 1 | 3.6% | 48% |
| 11 | LV | 20-13 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.8% | 4% |
| 13 | WAS | 45-15 | 25.3 | 3 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 73 | 2 | 16% | 61% |
| 14 | TEN | 27-28 | 12.1 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 27.3% | 46% |
| 15 | NYJ | 30-0 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 11.5% | 39% |
| 16 | DAL | 22-20 | 4.1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 8.3% | 55% |
| 17 | BAL | 19-56 | 23.7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 14 | 107 | 1 | 13.9% | 48% |
| 18 | BUF | 14-21 | 13.1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 1 | 3.7% | 63% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 197 |
| Carries | 103 |
| Rushing yards | 800 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 17.34 |
| Yards per target | 5.32 |
| Catch rate | 72.97% |
| Yards per carry | 7.77 |
| Snap share | 43.18% |
| Target share | 10.86% |
| Air-yards share | -0.19% |
| WOPR | 0.161 |
| RACR | -0.797 |
| Average depth of target | 0.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -2.4 |
| Total YAC | 262 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.1 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 24.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 17.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.1 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.43 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 5 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 49 |
| Target share | 20 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 20 of 49 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 6.94% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 32.08% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 19.51% |
| Durham Smythe | 8.07% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 7.13% |
| De'Von Achane ← | 6.94% |
| Braxton Berrios | 6.19% |
5 of his 11 games were blowouts, 71.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 27.3 in those and 6.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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