QB · MIA · GWTTKB

Tua Tagovailoa — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.48 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 203.3, usage worth 14.

28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 203.3
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 47, 66.5 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER236.5
ESPN170
UNDERDOG207.7
FFA325

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 17, pick 11 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankQB70
Bye week11
ADP standard deviation47 picks

The offense he plays in, 2026

Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).

The projected target split across the offense:

De'Von Achane15%
Greg Dulcich14%
Tutu Atwell10.4%
Caleb Douglas9.3%
Malik Washington9.2%
Chris Bell9.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

Key additions: QB Malik Willis signed to 3 year deal (was with Green Bay), RG Kadyn Proctor RD 1 RG, WR Caleb Douglas 3rd round draft pick, WR Chris Bell 3rd round draft pick, signed WR Jalen Tolbert, signed WR Tutu Atwell, signed WR Terrace Marshall Jr

Key departures: Tua Tagovailoa was released, Tyreek Hill was released, WR Jaylen Waddle was traded, and TE Darren Waller remains a free agent.

Notes: Dolphins sign Malik Willis in free agency to 3 year deal. Mobile QB with high fantasy upside. Offense skill positions (other than Achance) now worst in NFL. Unsure who starting WR will be. Dolphins drafted Caleb Douglas & Chris Bell (both have very good potential). Malik Washington is not good, Tutu Atwell unlikely to be highly productive, Terrace Marshall & Turpin also signed. Both are also not good. Greg Dulcich does have potential if Willis can get the offense working De'Von Achane landed HUGE contract for 4 years 64 million keeping him in Miami through 2030.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.

Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3 · harder
Weeks 1–6-4.8 · harder
Weeks 12–17-5.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-13.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20225Skylar Thompson+5.9

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -29.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Matthew Stafford202413.479%+40.2%
Kirk Cousins202412.678%-14.2%
Derek Carr202415.173%-53.1%
Aaron Rodgers202415.172%+26.4%
Derek Carr202314.264%+3.5%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 60% across the series, peaking at 6,908.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2020, round 1, pick 5 by MIA
CollegeAlabama
Age at draft22
Height6′0″
Weight217 lb

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game14.8
Week-to-week variation0.5
Boom rate16.7%
Bust rate11.7%
Games missed per season1.2
Injury historyRibs, Concussion, Hip
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.25

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · MIA · 14 games

His best game was Week 8 against ATL — 24.2 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-10. His worst was Week 7 against CLE at -1.4, on 0 targets, final score 6-31. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 8 decided by more, 10.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14 points per game. He scored 11.48, 18.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1IND8-335.2601710%81%
2NE27-3318.600020%100%
3BUF21-3112.84021020%100%
4NYJ27-2115.6803620%100%
5CAR24-2722.7401530%100%
6LAC27-296.601410%97%
7CLE6-31-1.403600%79%
8ATL34-1024.200040%90%
9BAL6-288.5401100%100%
10BUF30-1310.8202-120%100%
11WAS16-136.8400000%100%
13NO21-174.6804400%100%
14NYJ34-109.0801010%89%
15PIT15-2816.2201120%100%

Production

Carries20
Rushing yards43
Touchdowns20
Points per game11.48
Yards per carry2.15

Role

Snap share95.43%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.53

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.05

Who else ate

The offense threw it 479 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle22.22%
De'Von Achane18.89%
Malik Washington14.44%
Darren Waller7.56%
Greg Dulcich7.33%
Tyreek Hill6.44%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 35.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.42 in those and 12.52 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · MIA · 11 games

His best game was Week 12 against NE — 28.48 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 34-15. His worst was Week 15 against HOU at 3.84, on 0 targets, final score 12-20. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.4; in the 5 decided by more, 19. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.5 points per game. He scored 16.51, 5.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1JAX20-1718.62011110%100%
2BUF10-315.5021710%72%
8ARI27-2814.66031310%100%
9BUF27-3017.5402320%100%
10LA23-158.1801-110%100%
11LV34-1923.5200030%100%
12NE34-1528.4803-240%97%
13GB17-3025.202620%100%
14NYJ32-2623.5401320%100%
15HOU12-203.8400010%100%
16SF29-1712.502-110%100%

Production

Carries17
Rushing yards49
Touchdowns19
Points per game16.51
Yards per carry2.88

Role

Snap share97.18%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share2.8%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.08

Who else ate

The offense threw it 591 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill21.94%
Jonnu Smith19.96%
De'Von Achane15.65%
Jaylen Waddle14.93%
Malik Washington6.47%
Raheem Mostert4.14%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 18.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.99 in those and 14.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · MIA · 17 games

His best game was Week 3 against DEN — 28.36 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 70-20. His worst was Week 18 against BUF at 7.62, on 0 targets, final score 14-21. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.5; in the 10 decided by more, 16.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 15.9, 0.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1LAC36-3427.1405530%100%
2NE24-1712.2604310%100%
3DEN70-2028.3600040%79%
4BUF20-4813.9802710%100%
5NYG31-1616.9202620%100%
6CAR42-2122.4801030%84%
7PHI17-3110.3401-310%100%
8NE31-1721.7606830%100%
9KC14-2112.4202710%100%
11LV20-1317.602620%100%
12NYJ34-137.8202110%99%
13WAS45-1519.200020%79%
14TEN27-289.1031500%100%
15NYJ30-012.9600010%87%
16DAL22-2015.5202-210%100%
17BAL19-5614.88021420%93%
18BUF14-217.6201710%100%

Production

Carries35
Rushing yards74
Touchdowns29
Points per game15.9
Yards per carry2.11

Role

Snap share95.35%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-2.3

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.2%
Goal-line carry share3.4%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.59

Who else ate

The offense threw it 566 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill32.08%
Jaylen Waddle19.51%
Durham Smythe8.07%
Cedrick Wilson7.13%
De'Von Achane6.94%
Braxton Berrios6.19%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 44.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.1 in those and 14.52 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · MIA · 13 games

His best game was Week 2 against BAL — 38.86 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 42-38. His worst was Week 4 against CIN at 2.4, on 0 targets, final score 15-27. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.1; in the 5 decided by more, 14.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.6 points per game. He scored 17.76, 21.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE20-714.802010%100%
2BAL42-3838.8601160%100%
3BUF21-1911.4401010%93%
4CIN15-272.400000%39%
7PIT16-1015.94041510%100%
8DET31-2729.18051930%100%
9CHI35-3224.0805030%100%
10CLE39-1723.401030%90%
12HOU30-1515.9600010%72%
13SF17-3313.800020%98%
14LAC17-2312.6032810%100%
15BUF29-3218.0601720%100%
16GB20-2610.401010%100%

Production

Carries24
Rushing yards70
Touchdowns25
Points per game17.76
Yards per carry2.92

Role

Snap share91.69%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.71

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share3.6%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.11

Who else ate

The offense threw it 584 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill31.54%
Jaylen Waddle21.71%
Mike Gesicki9.65%
Trent Sherfield9.46%
Raheem Mostert7.79%
Jeffery Wilson4.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa12019.040%
Teddy Bridgewater102.40%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 13 games were blowouts, 10.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.4 in those and 20.07 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · MIA · 13 games

His best game was Week 7 against ATL — 26.54 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 28-30. His worst was Week 2 against BUF at 0.52, on 0 targets, final score 0-35. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.1; in the 8 decided by more, 10.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.7 points per game. He scored 13.92, 11.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NE17-1616.1804120%96%
2BUF0-350.5200000%12%
6JAX20-2321.36032220%99%
7ATL28-3026.54042940%100%
8BUF11-2615.2041010%100%
10BAL22-1012.3203010%46%
11NYJ24-1717.5203620%100%
12CAR33-1013.204010%100%
13NYG20-917.8602120%100%
15NYJ31-2413.74071920%96%
16NO20-310.0201110%94%
17TEN3-344.302100%98%
18NE33-2412.16053810%100%

Production

Carries42
Rushing yards128
Touchdowns19
Points per game13.92
Yards per carry3.05

Role

Snap share87.77%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game-0.39

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share11.6%
Goal-line carry share19.2%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.32

Who else ate

The offense threw it 615 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jaylen Waddle23.41%
Mike Gesicki18.73%
DeVante Parker12.21%
Myles Gaskin10.54%
Durham Smythe6.86%
Albert Wilson6.52%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa11015.280%
Jacoby Brissett206.420%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 15.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.01 in those and 19.07 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · MIA · 10 games

His best game was Week 14 against KC — 27.04 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-33. His worst was Week 6 against NYJ at 0.36, on 0 targets, final score 24-0. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 5 decided by more, 11.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.4 points per game. He scored 13.55, 17.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
6NYJ24-00.3600000%9%
8LA28-175.7202010%100%
9ARI34-3121.42073520%100%
10LAC29-2114.6606-120%100%
11DEN13-207.3200010%68%
13CIN19-716.1403310%100%
14KC27-3327.04062430%100%
15NE22-1218.703920%100%
16LV26-258.86031110%73%
17BUF26-5615.24062810%100%

Production

Carries36
Rushing yards109
Touchdowns14
Points per game13.55
Yards per carry3.03

Role

Snap share85%
Target share0%
Air-yards share0%

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game0
Rushing EPA per game0.23

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share7.8%
Goal-line carry share12.5%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs2.17

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DeVante Parker18.93%
Mike Gesicki15.63%
Jakeem Grant9.93%
Myles Gaskin8.64%
Isaiah Ford8.09%
Lynn Bowden6.8%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tua Tagovailoa9015.010%
Ryan Fitzpatrick100.360%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 11.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.8 in those and 15.86 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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