Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 11.87 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 36, usage worth 11.8.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 38 |
| ESPN | 39.4 |
| YAHOO | 29.3 |
| UNDERDOG | 27.6 |
| CBS | 37.1 |
| FFA | 31 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR14 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 4.5 picks |
Our board has him at 230 points, 14 per game — 82.9 catches, 1,069 yards, 6.7 TDs. That is WR3, 31 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 12.6 points per game to a ceiling of 19, with the median at 14. Boom rate 36%, bust rate 10%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 36 on consensus and our board has him 31. We rank him 5 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Locked alpha with AJ Brown gone; top-10 WR upside at the 3/4 turn — perfect WR1 to pair after a double-RB open. Eagles have the easiest passing schedule.
buy · high conviction · 2026-06-05Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.
In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 17.8%, with a bear case of 15.2% and a bull case of 19.3% and a full range of 11.6% to 21.1%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Devonta Smith ← | 17.8% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.4% |
| Makai Lemon | 17.1% |
| Elijah Moore | 10% |
| Eli Stowers | 8.9% |
| Saquon Barkley | 6.6% |
What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.
Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)
Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.
Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 25.2%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 21.2%, p25-p75 [15.5%, 24.5%], tails [7.8%, 28.3%]. Closest comps: Marquise Brown 2021→2022 (BAL→ARI: 25.9%→23.5%); Christian Kirk 2024→2025 (JAX→HOU: 22.4%→15.5%); Calvin Ridley 2023→2024 (JAX→TEN: 22.5%→23.8%).
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 25.2% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +7.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | Ainias Smith | +12 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 2024 | 10.4 | 88% | +14.8% |
| Keenan Allen | 2024 | 12.3 | 76% | -7% |
| DK Metcalf | 2024 | 12.7 | 75% | -4.3% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2024 | 14.2 | 74% | -22.4% |
| Terry McLaurin | 2023 | 12 | 73% | +39.7% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 10 by PHI |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Career PPR per game | 13.3 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 23.1% |
| Bust rate | 21.5% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Concussion, Hamstring, Wrist |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.37 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against MIN — 33.3 PPR on 11 targets and a 47.8% target share, in a game that finished 28-22. His worst was Week 11 against DET at 1.8, on 5 targets, final score 16-9. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.1; in the 5 decided by more, 11.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 11.87, 2.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24-20 | 4.6 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 15% | 89% |
| 2 | KC | 20-17 | 9.3 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 | 28.6% | 75% |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 1 | 30% | 96% |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 4.9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 8.3% | 91% |
| 5 | DEN | 17-21 | 19.4 | 8 | 10 | 114 | 0 | 27% | 98% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-34 | 8.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 15.6% | 96% |
| 7 | MIN | 28-22 | 33.3 | 9 | 11 | 183 | 1 | 47.8% | 88% |
| 8 | NYG | 38-20 | 14.4 | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 | 45% | 90% |
| 10 | GB | 10-7 | 16.9 | 4 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 30.4% | 92% |
| 11 | DET | 16-9 | 1.8 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 18.5% | 97% |
| 12 | DAL | 21-24 | 14.9 | 6 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 30.6% | 95% |
| 13 | CHI | 15-24 | 9.8 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 26.7% | 94% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-22 | 7.7 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 21.1% | 97% |
| 15 | LV | 31-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 11.1% | 52% |
| 16 | WAS | 29-18 | 16.2 | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 27.6% | 86% |
| 17 | BUF | 13-12 | 4.5 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 22.7% | 85% |
| 18 | WAS | 17-24 | 8.2 | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 11.8% | 14% |
| Receptions | 77 |
| Targets | 113 |
| Receiving yards | 1,008 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 11.87 |
| Yards per target | 8.92 |
| Catch rate | 68.14% |
| Snap share | 84.41% |
| Target share | 24.58% |
| Air-yards share | 32.14% |
| WOPR | 0.592 |
| RACR | 0.959 |
| Average depth of target | 11.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 293 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 29.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.64 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.64 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 26 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 44 |
| Target share | 15 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 24 of 44 |
The offense threw it 497 times. He took 24.35% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 26.08% |
| DeVonta Smith ← | 24.35% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.67% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.78% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.76% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2.8% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 109 | 12.1 | 8.77 | 25.38% |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 4 | 8.2 | 13 | 11.8% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.1 in those and 12.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against DAL — 30 PPR on 7 targets and a 38.9% target share, in a game that finished 41-7. His worst was Week 7 against NYG at 0.8, on 2 targets, final score 28-3. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.6; in the 5 decided by more, 16.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11 points per game. He scored 15.34, 28% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-29 | 15.4 | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 | 27.6% | 100% |
| 2 | ATL | 21-22 | 20.6 | 7 | 10 | 76 | 1 | 34.5% | 100% |
| 3 | NO | 15-12 | 14.9 | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 27.8% | 76% |
| 6 | CLE | 20-16 | 15.4 | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 | 16.7% | 100% |
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 0.8 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14.3% | 80% |
| 8 | CIN | 37-17 | 20.5 | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 | 36.8% | 93% |
| 9 | JAX | 28-23 | 18.7 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 26.1% | 96% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 3.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 15% | 72% |
| 11 | WAS | 26-18 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 24% | 89% |
| 14 | CAR | 22-16 | 13.7 | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 31.6% | 90% |
| 15 | PIT | 27-13 | 28 | 11 | 12 | 109 | 1 | 38.7% | 93% |
| 16 | WAS | 33-36 | 11.1 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 32% | 82% |
| 17 | DAL | 41-7 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 120 | 2 | 38.9% | 80% |
| Receptions | 68 |
| Targets | 89 |
| Receiving yards | 833 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 8 |
| Points per game | 15.34 |
| Yards per target | 9.36 |
| Catch rate | 76.4% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 88.54% |
| Target share | 28% |
| Air-yards share | 29.88% |
| WOPR | 0.628 |
| RACR | 0.841 |
| Average depth of target | 9.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.9 |
| Total YAC | 299 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 120.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.37 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 23.3% |
| Red-zone carry share | 0.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.22 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.22 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.04 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 15 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 9 of 51 |
| Target share | 8 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 28 of 51 |
The offense threw it 448 times. He took 21.34% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith ← | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 74 | 14.39 | 8.95 | 26.65% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 15 | 20.55 | 11.4 | 35.45% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 27.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.68 in those and 14.59 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against SF — 24.6 PPR on 11 targets and a 26.2% target share, in a game that finished 19-42. His worst was Week 5 against LA at 1.6, on 5 targets, final score 23-14. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.9; in the 5 decided by more, 10.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 12.5 points per game. He scored 14.22, 17.5% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.9 expected, a gap of 1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 25-20 | 17.7 | 7 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 33.3% | 98% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-28 | 23.1 | 4 | 5 | 131 | 1 | 22.7% | 100% |
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 14.3% | 99% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 14.8 | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 26.5% | 99% |
| 5 | LA | 23-14 | 1.6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 14.7% | 94% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 9.4 | 5 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 25.6% | 99% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 8.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 16.7% | 96% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 22.9 | 7 | 7 | 99 | 1 | 20% | 97% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 14.1 | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 | 14.3% | 94% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 15.9 | 6 | 8 | 99 | 0 | 38.1% | 95% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 23.6 | 7 | 8 | 106 | 1 | 28.6% | 98% |
| 13 | SF | 19-42 | 24.6 | 9 | 11 | 96 | 1 | 26.2% | 100% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 10.3 | 5 | 10 | 73 | 0 | 35.7% | 95% |
| 15 | SEA | 17-20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 | 16.7% | 96% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 17.9 | 4 | 5 | 79 | 1 | 13.9% | 93% |
| 17 | ARI | 31-35 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 21.7% | 88% |
| Receptions | 81 |
| Targets | 112 |
| Receiving yards | 1,066 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.22 |
| Yards per target | 9.52 |
| Catch rate | 72.32% |
| Snap share | 96.31% |
| Target share | 23.06% |
| Air-yards share | 31.32% |
| WOPR | 0.564 |
| RACR | 0.887 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.5 |
| Total YAC | 294 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 12.7% |
| End-zone target share | 24% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.9 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.1 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 19 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 11 of 51 |
| Target share | 26 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 51 |
The offense threw it 562 times. He took 21.33% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith ← | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 15.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.45 in those and 15.95 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against DAL — 31.3 PPR on 12 targets and a 35.3% target share, in a game that finished 34-40. His worst was Week 1 against DET at 0, on 4 targets, final score 38-35. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.6; in the 9 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 15.09, 9.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.19 expected, a gap of 2.8.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 38-35 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 96% |
| 2 | MIN | 24-7 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 80 | 0 | 22.6% | 99% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-8 | 30.9 | 8 | 12 | 169 | 1 | 35.3% | 89% |
| 4 | JAX | 29-21 | 4.7 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 16.7% | 87% |
| 5 | ARI | 20-17 | 18.7 | 10 | 11 | 87 | 0 | 32.4% | 99% |
| 6 | DAL | 26-17 | 15.4 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 22.7% | 89% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-13 | 7.3 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 26.7% | 74% |
| 9 | HOU | 29-17 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 8% | 89% |
| 10 | WAS | 21-32 | 15.9 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 32% | 86% |
| 11 | IND | 17-16 | 13.8 | 6 | 9 | 78 | 0 | 39.1% | 94% |
| 12 | GB | 40-33 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 36% | 93% |
| 13 | TEN | 35-10 | 21.2 | 5 | 8 | 102 | 1 | 21.1% | 86% |
| 14 | NYG | 48-22 | 17.4 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 25.8% | 91% |
| 15 | CHI | 25-20 | 17.6 | 5 | 8 | 126 | 0 | 21.6% | 96% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-40 | 31.3 | 8 | 12 | 113 | 2 | 35.3% | 93% |
| 17 | NO | 10-20 | 20.5 | 9 | 13 | 115 | 0 | 40.6% | 98% |
| 18 | NYG | 22-16 | 13.7 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 0 | 25.8% | 100% |
| Receptions | 95 |
| Targets | 136 |
| Receiving yards | 1,196 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 15.09 |
| Yards per target | 8.79 |
| Catch rate | 69.85% |
| Snap share | 91.71% |
| Target share | 26.79% |
| Air-yards share | 28.16% |
| WOPR | 0.6 |
| RACR | 1.065 |
| Average depth of target | 9.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.4 |
| Total YAC | 490 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.51 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 26.6% |
| End-zone target share | 42.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.19 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.81 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 14 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 51 |
| Target share | 14 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 30 of 51 |
The offense threw it 536 times. He took 26.93% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown | 28.71% |
| DeVonta Smith ← | 26.93% |
| Dallas Goedert | 13.66% |
| Quez Watkins | 10.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5.74% |
| Miles Sanders | 5.15% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 111 | 13.65 | 8.72 | 25.31% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 25 | 25.9 | 9.12 | 37.95% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 23.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.22 in those and 13.6 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against LAC — 22.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 37.5% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 8 against DET at 2.5, on 3 targets, final score 44-6. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.8; in the 11 decided by more, 11.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.1 points per game. He scored 10.92, 0.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 32-6 | 19.1 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 1 | 25% | 87% |
| 2 | SF | 11-17 | 3.6 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 29.2% | 84% |
| 3 | DAL | 21-41 | 5.8 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 15.8% | 98% |
| 4 | KC | 30-42 | 19.2 | 7 | 10 | 122 | 0 | 22.7% | 92% |
| 5 | CAR | 21-18 | 14.7 | 7 | 9 | 77 | 0 | 26.5% | 93% |
| 6 | TB | 22-28 | 5.1 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 16.7% | 98% |
| 7 | LV | 22-33 | 11.1 | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 | 29% | 87% |
| 8 | DET | 44-6 | 2.5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18.8% | 68% |
| 9 | LAC | 24-27 | 22.6 | 5 | 6 | 116 | 1 | 37.5% | 77% |
| 10 | DEN | 30-13 | 22.6 | 4 | 6 | 66 | 2 | 27.3% | 84% |
| 11 | NO | 40-29 | 10.1 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 26.1% | 92% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-13 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13.8% | 91% |
| 13 | NYJ | 33-18 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 18.2% | 62% |
| 15 | WAS | 27-17 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 19.2% | 87% |
| 16 | NYG | 34-10 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 80 | 1 | 25% | 86% |
| 17 | WAS | 20-16 | 8.4 | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 24% | 95% |
| 18 | DAL | 26-51 | 7.1 | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11.8% | 19% |
| Receptions | 64 |
| Targets | 104 |
| Receiving yards | 916 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 10.92 |
| Yards per target | 8.81 |
| Catch rate | 61.54% |
| Snap share | 82.35% |
| Target share | 22.74% |
| Air-yards share | 35.82% |
| WOPR | 0.591 |
| RACR | 0.642 |
| Average depth of target | 13.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.9 |
| Total YAC | 220 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.1% |
| End-zone target share | 30.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.75 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.25 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 35 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 48 |
| Target share | 25 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 10 of 48 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 22.32% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVonta Smith ← | 22.32% |
| Dallas Goedert | 16.31% |
| Quez Watkins | 13.3% |
| Jalen Reagor | 12.23% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 10.73% |
| Miles Sanders | 7.3% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 96 | 11.67 | 8.96 | 23.77% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 8 | 5.3 | 7 | 15% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 41% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.68 in those and 9.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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