Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.83 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.5, usage worth 6.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 173.4 |
| FFA | 188 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 3 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR136 |
| Bye week | 10 |
Our board has him at 109.6 points, 6.7 per game — 39.3 catches, 505 yards, 3.3 TDs. That is WR6, 184 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 4 points per game to a ceiling of 12.7, with the median at 6.7. Boom rate 89%, bust rate 39%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.5 on consensus and our board has him 184. We rank him 13.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.
In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.5%, with a bear case of 4.2% and a bull case of 6.5% and a full range of 3.1% to 8%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Devonta Smith | 17.8% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.4% |
| Makai Lemon | 17.1% |
| Elijah Moore | 10% |
| Eli Stowers | 8.9% |
| Saquon Barkley | 6.6% |
What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.
Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)
Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.
Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 13.7%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 7.9%, p25-p75 [3.5%, 10.6%], tails [0.0%, 15.3%]. Closest comps: Olamide Zaccheaus 2022→2023 (ATL→PHI: 14.8%→5.6%); Keelan Cole 2021→2022 (NYJ→LV: 12.0%→6.6%); James Washington 2021→2022 (PIT→DAL: 10.3%→2.6%). Adjustment: -5% from td_luck_breakout (TD regression risk)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 13.7% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +7.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +5.6 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +4.2 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -6.1 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Savion Williams | +2.9 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 2022 | 3.8 | 79% | -19.2% |
| Greg Dortch | 2023 | 4 | 76% | +11.7% |
| Tim Patrick | 2024 | 6.2 | 75% | -8.2% |
| Calvin Austin III | 2024 | 7.1 | 75% | +21.5% |
| Jalen Guyton | 2023 | 3.6 | 74% | -62.1% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 5, pick 159 by GNB |
| College | Virginia |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 206 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.62s |
| Vertical | 39″ |
| Broad jump | 130″ |
| Career PPR per game | 7.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1 |
| Boom rate | 19.4% |
| Bust rate | 33.3% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Calf, Concussion |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.08 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 13 against DET — 28 PPR on 7 targets and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-24. His worst was Week 7 against ARI at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 27-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 5 decided by more, 4.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 5.83, 3.6% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 9.1% | 46% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 8.4 | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 22.2% | 54% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 16% | 68% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 3.9 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 11.1% | 77% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 7.7% | 34% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7.1% | 27% |
| 10 | PHI | 7-10 | 7.8 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 24.2% | 65% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | 56% |
| 12 | MIN | 23-6 | 5.2 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 19% | 48% |
| 13 | DET | 31-24 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 | 24.1% | 49% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.6% | 42% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 3.2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8.3% | 42% |
| 17 | BAL | 24-41 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 6% |
| Receptions | 30 |
| Targets | 46 |
| Receiving yards | 332 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.83 |
| Yards per target | 7.22 |
| Catch rate | 65.22% |
| Yards per carry | 6 |
| Snap share | 47.23% |
| Target share | 12.8% |
| Air-yards share | 16.89% |
| WOPR | 0.311 |
| RACR | 0.792 |
| Average depth of target | 11.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.8 |
| Total YAC | 67 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.95 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 489 times. He took 10% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks ← | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 12 | 45 | 6.17 | 7.22 | 13.53% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 7 | 4% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 9.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.45 in those and 6.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against MIN — 24.8 PPR on 13 targets and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 29-31. His worst was Week 11 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.4; in the 7 decided by more, 3.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 8.1 points per game. He scored 6.5, 19.9% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9.4% | 46% |
| 2 | IND | 16-10 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 30.8% | 51% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.5% | 46% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 24.8 | 5 | 13 | 78 | 2 | 24.1% | 76% |
| 5 | LA | 24-19 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 28% | 76% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 1.9 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9.7% | 14% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 13.8 | 3 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 18.2% | 41% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 3.1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7.4% | 30% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.1% | 54% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.9% | 35% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 9.1% | 39% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17.9% | 89% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 8.9 | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 26.3% | 78% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7.7% | 47% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 10.3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 25.9% | 61% |
| 17 | MIN | 25-27 | 8.3 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 17.2% | 73% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 9.9 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 24% | 74% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 76 |
| Receiving yards | 415 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 6.5 |
| Yards per target | 5.46 |
| Catch rate | 51.32% |
| Snap share | 54.71% |
| Target share | 16.48% |
| Air-yards share | 20.69% |
| WOPR | 0.394 |
| RACR | 0.725 |
| Average depth of target | 10.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Total YAC | 139 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 78.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.46 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 18.2% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.31 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 16.41% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks ← | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 64 | 6.36 | 5.31 | 15.35% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 12 | 7.17 | 6.25 | 21.77% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 17.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.78 in those and 8.44 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against CHI — 24.1 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.9% target share, in a game that finished 17-9. His worst was Week 4 against DET at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-34. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.2; in the 5 decided by more, 5.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 7.98, 22.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.51 expected, a gap of 1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 38-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 62% |
| 2 | ATL | 24-25 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 40 | 1 | 16% | 50% |
| 3 | NO | 18-17 | 8.5 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 14% | 66% |
| 4 | DET | 20-34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 58% |
| 5 | LV | 13-17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3.4% | 22% |
| 7 | DEN | 17-19 | 3.36 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3.1% | 22% |
| 8 | MIN | 10-24 | 4.8 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10% | 34% |
| 9 | LA | 20-3 | 6.9 | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 16% | 32% |
| 10 | PIT | 19-23 | 8.1 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 10.8% | 44% |
| 11 | LAC | 23-20 | 12.1 | 3 | 5 | 91 | 0 | 13.2% | 33% |
| 13 | KC | 27-19 | 7.3 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 11.4% | 39% |
| 14 | NYG | 22-24 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 15.8% | 63% |
| 15 | TB | 20-34 | 15.7 | 6 | 7 | 97 | 0 | 19.4% | 78% |
| 16 | CAR | 33-30 | 10.9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 | 7.7% | 39% |
| 18 | CHI | 17-9 | 24.1 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 2 | 21.9% | 72% |
| Receptions | 39 |
| Targets | 58 |
| Receiving yards | 581 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 7.98 |
| Yards per target | 10.02 |
| Catch rate | 67.24% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 47.6% |
| Target share | 11.53% |
| Air-yards share | 14.65% |
| WOPR | 0.276 |
| RACR | 0.964 |
| Average depth of target | 10.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.5 |
| Total YAC | 210 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 115.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.94 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Red-zone targets | 9 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.1% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.51 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.49 |
The offense threw it 581 times. He took 10.34% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 17.11% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.76% |
| Dontayvion Wicks ← | 10.34% |
| Christian Watson | 9.45% |
| Luke Musgrave | 8.2% |
| Aaron Jones | 7.66% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 5.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.45 in those and 9.24 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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