RB · PHI · GWTTKB

Saquon Barkley — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.52 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 14.4, usage worth 16.6.

29 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 14.4
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 1.8, 4.1 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on yahoo.
SLEEPER13.3
ESPN16.9
YAHOO12.8
UNDERDOG13.6
CBS14.5
FFA13

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 2, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB7
Bye week10
ADP standard deviation1.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 239.6 points, 15 per game — 1,194 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs, 32.9 catches. That is RB2, 13 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 12.8 points per game to a ceiling of 20.5, with the median at 15. Boom rate 37%, bust rate 14%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 14.4 on consensus and our board has him 13. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.

Our written view

Still excellent, but the 2/02 price is steep vs ascending backs (Achane/Hampton/Jeanty), and Tank Bigsby is a quality enough backup to trim his workload. If you take him, handcuff Bigsby.

hesitant · medium conviction · 2026-06-05

The offense he plays in, 2026

Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.

In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Saquon Barkley 64.9%
Will Shipley15%
Tank Bigsby13.2%
Dameon Pierce7%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.

Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)

Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.

Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share64.9%
Projected carries per game14.6
Projected carries, full season248
Last season, carries per game18

That is a reduction of 3.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.4 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+2.2 · easier
Weeks 1–6-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 12–17+1 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-5.8 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20232Matt Breida+10.1
20214Devontae Booker+7.4
Read the full Saquon Barkley study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -20.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Joe Mixon202417.262%-47.6%
James Conner202315.558%+27.8%
Tony Pollard202412.557%-1.9%
James Conner202415.957%-29%
Aaron Jones202312.357%+5.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 50% across the series, peaking at 9,999.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2018, round 1, pick 2 by NYG
CollegePenn St.
Age at draft21
Height6′0″
Weight233 lb
40-yard dash4.4s
Vertical41″
Shuttle4.24s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game16
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate18.3%
Bust rate25%
Games missed per season1.4
Injury historyAnkle
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.14

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · PHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 8 against NYG — 33.4 PPR on 19 touches and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 38-20. His worst was Week 7 against MIN at 5.2, on 19 touches, final score 28-22. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.3; in the 5 decided by more, 17.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.6 points per game. He scored 14.52, 11.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL24-2018.445241860125%79%
2KC20-1717.4226228819.5%83%
3LA33-269.54591846016.7%94%
4TB31-2517.444311943116.7%84%
5DEN17-2117.8335863018.1%72%
6NYG17-348.7239125809.4%81%
7MIN28-225.211-2184404.3%78%
8NYG38-2033.4452414150225%59%
10GB10-713.133412260013%70%
11DET16-910127268307.4%81%
12DAL21-2412.478521022022.2%83%
13CHI15-245.6020135606.7%93%
14LAC19-2218.20202012215.3%82%
15LV31-017.223142278116.7%57%
16WAS29-1821.20202113216.9%77%
17BUF13-126.8000196800%80%

Production

Receptions37
Targets50
Receiving yards273
Carries280
Rushing yards1,140
Touchdowns9
Points per game14.52
Yards per target5.46
Catch rate74%
Yards per carry4.07

Role

Snap share78.31%
Target share12.06%
Air-yards share-0.69%
WOPR0.176
RACR-1.616

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.6
Yards after catch per reception8
Yards before catch per reception-0.6
Total YAC296
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted99.8
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.31
Rushing EPA per game-1.51

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share11.3%
End-zone target share5.9%
Red-zone carry share50%
Goal-line carry share44.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.69
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.69
Expected rushing TDs8.58

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game15 of 49
Yards per target34 of 49
Target share10 of 49
Air-yards share27 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 497 times. He took 10.78% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown26.08%
DeVonta Smith24.35%
Dallas Goedert17.67%
Saquon Barkley 10.78%
Jahan Dotson7.76%
Grant Calcaterra2.8%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 25.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 19.77 in those and 13.29 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · PHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 12 against LA — 46.2 PPR on 30 touches and a 21.1% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 6 against CLE at 7.4, on 20 touches, final score 20-16. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24.4; in the 7 decided by more, 19.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 22.21, 23.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1GB34-2933.222232410936.9%80%
2ATL21-2217.645212295017.2%90%
3NO15-1233.644917147211.1%80%
4TB16-3313.624321084013.8%56%
6CLE20-167.4227184708.3%79%
7NYG28-326.7231117176121.4%53%
8CIN37-1712.11132210805.3%82%
9JAX28-2332.9344027159217.4%72%
10DAL34-68.81112146605%51%
11WAS26-1833.8235226146212%82%
12LA37-2046.2444726255221.1%68%
13BAL24-1919.7241023107123.5%88%
14CAR22-1614.40102012405.3%76%
15PIT27-139.4229196506.5%61%
16WAS33-36270102915024%82%
17DAL41-718.922231167011.1%75%

Production

Receptions33
Targets43
Receiving yards278
Carries345
Rushing yards2,005
Touchdowns15
Points per game22.21
Yards per target6.47
Catch rate76.74%
Yards per carry5.81

Role

Snap share73.44%
Target share11.87%
Air-yards share2.34%
WOPR0.194
RACR3.948

Efficiency

Average depth of target1.9
Yards after catch per reception7.4
Yards before catch per reception1
Total YAC245
Broken tackles6
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted108.5
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.76
Rushing EPA per game2.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share16.4%
End-zone target share6.7%
Red-zone carry share47.8%
Goal-line carry share46%
Expected receiving TDs2.06
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.06
Expected rushing TDs13.18

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game1 of 46
Yards per target18 of 46
Target share11 of 46
Air-yards share1 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 448 times. He took 10.31% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

A.J. Brown23.26%
DeVonta Smith21.34%
Dallas Goedert12.47%
Saquon Barkley 10.31%
Jahan Dotson7.91%
Grant Calcaterra7.19%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jalen Hurts144022.16.912.49%
Kenny Pickett2322.950.677.55%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 35.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 21.05 in those and 24.4 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NYG · 14 games

His best game was Week 11 against WAS — 30 PPR on 19 touches and a 19.2% target share, in a game that finished 31-19. His worst was Week 15 against NO at 5.7, on 11 touches, final score 6-24. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.6; in the 6 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.9 points per game. He scored 15.94, 5.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL0-409.334121251013.8%64%
2ARI31-2827.267291763220%97%
6BUF9-1413.84552493016.1%78%
7WAS14-718.834412177114.8%84%
8NYJ10-1315.835036128041.7%89%
9LV6-3014.334231690013.8%75%
10DAL17-497.113-51366011.5%61%
11WAS31-193045571483219.2%91%
12NE10-76.21361246012.5%81%
14GB24-2223.134152086220%86%
15NO6-245.7222391405.9%50%
16PHI25-3319.43642380122.2%89%
17LA25-268.836191239015.4%89%
18PHI27-1023.72251184626.3%70%

Production

Receptions41
Targets60
Receiving yards280
Carries247
Rushing yards962
Touchdowns10
Points per game15.94
Yards per target4.67
Catch rate68.33%
Yards per carry3.89

Role

Snap share78.86%
Target share16.66%
Air-yards share-2.56%
WOPR0.231
RACR2.4

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.5
Yards after catch per reception5.5
Yards before catch per reception1.3
Total YAC226
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted79.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.54
Rushing EPA per game-3.52

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share14.3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share60.9%
Goal-line carry share100%
Expected receiving TDs1.29
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.71
Expected rushing TDs5.57

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game9 of 49
Yards per target36 of 49
Target share4 of 49
Air-yards share42 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 518 times. He took 12.4% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darius Slayton16.32%
Wan'Dale Robinson16.12%
Darren Waller15.29%
Saquon Barkley 12.4%
Jalin Hyatt8.26%
Isaiah Hodgins6.82%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Tyrod Taylor62816.724.2919.42%
Tommy DeVito62114.45.6713.82%
Daniel Jones21118.253.7316.9%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 26.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.02 in those and 16.64 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · NYG · 16 games

His best game was Week 1 against TEN — 33.4 PPR on 25 touches and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 21-20. His worst was Week 11 against DET at 5.5, on 20 touches, final score 18-31. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 20.8; in the 4 decided by more, 8.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 17.9 points per game. He scored 17.75, 0.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1TEN21-2033.4673018164133.3%83%
2CAR19-1611.834162172012.5%84%
3DAL16-2322.644451481112.5%92%
4CHI20-1218.2221631146013.3%94%
5GB27-2219.636361370123.1%69%
6BAL24-2018.533122283112%88%
7JAX23-1717.5442524110013.8%81%
8SEA13-2715.23592053116.1%80%
10HOU24-16231183515215.9%80%
11DET18-315.525131522012.5%76%
12DAL20-2815.246131139120.7%74%
13WAS20-2019.155181863117.9%88%
14PHI22-486.8222092806.3%31%
15WAS20-122358331887126.7%86%
16MIN24-2727.3810491484124.4%91%
17IND38-107.324-51258017.4%79%

Production

Receptions57
Targets76
Receiving yards338
Carries295
Rushing yards1,312
Touchdowns10
Points per game17.75
Yards per target4.45
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry4.45

Role

Snap share79.75%
Target share16.77%
Air-yards share-0.56%
WOPR0.247
RACR-3.524

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.2
Yards after catch per reception7.6
Yards before catch per reception-1.7
Total YAC434
Broken tackles3
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted77.6
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.79
Rushing EPA per game-0.97

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share4.2%
End-zone target share8.3%
Red-zone carry share46.4%
Goal-line carry share61.5%
Expected receiving TDs0.43
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.43
Expected rushing TDs8.67

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game5 of 42
Yards per target31 of 42
Target share5 of 42
Air-yards share32 of 42

Who else ate

The offense threw it 520 times. He took 15.54% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Saquon Barkley 15.54%
Darius Slayton14.52%
Richie James14.31%
Isaiah Hodgins8.59%
Daniel Bellinger7.16%
Wan'Dale Robinson6.34%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.05 in those and 20.77 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · NYG · 13 games

His best game was Week 4 against NO — 29.6 PPR on 19 touches and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-21. His worst was Week 5 against DAL at 0.9, on 3 touches, final score 20-44. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.3; in the 9 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 11.43, 21.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1DEN13-273.7131102608.3%48%
2WAS29-308.92312135709.4%84%
3ATL14-1721.467431651120%86%
4NO27-2129.656741352216.7%89%
5DAL20-440.90102902.7%9%
11TB10-3011.66631625016.2%62%
12PHI13-79.345131340017.2%87%
13MIA9-2013.469191155023.7%75%
14LAC21-3718.53331166418.8%55%
15DAL6-219.448241550022.2%59%
16PHI10-343.811-4153202.4%34%
17CHI3-2910.20102110209.1%54%
18WAS7-227.934191130013.3%60%

Production

Receptions41
Targets57
Receiving yards263
Carries162
Rushing yards593
Touchdowns4
Points per game11.43
Yards per target4.61
Catch rate71.93%
Yards per carry3.66

Role

Snap share61.69%
Target share13.08%
Air-yards share-0.12%
WOPR0.196
RACR-0.41

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.5
Yards after catch per reception7.3
Yards before catch per reception-0.9
Total YAC298
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted92.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.29
Rushing EPA per game-1.57

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share5.4%
End-zone target share7.7%
Red-zone carry share26.1%
Goal-line carry share23.1%
Expected receiving TDs0.57
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.43
Expected rushing TDs2.01

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game29 of 50
Yards per target42 of 50
Target share8 of 50
Air-yards share29 of 50

Who else ate

The offense threw it 592 times. He took 10.16% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Kenny Golladay13.55%
Evan Engram13.01%
Darius Slayton10.34%
Saquon Barkley 10.16%
Kadarius Toney10.16%
Sterling Shepard9.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Daniel Jones63014.085.814.63%
Mike Glennon6239.373.0411.48%
Jake Fromm147.94.7513.3%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 17.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.63 in those and 17.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · NYG · 2 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.9 points per game. He scored 7.7, 40.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT16-2612.66960156023.1%87%
2CHI13-172.800042800%12%

Production

Receptions6
Targets9
Receiving yards60
Carries19
Rushing yards34
Touchdowns0
Points per game7.7
Yards per target6.67
Catch rate66.67%
Yards per carry1.79

Role

Snap share49.5%
Target share11.55%
Air-yards share7.35%
WOPR0.225
RACR0.88

Efficiency

Average depth of target3.8
Yards after catch per reception9.2
Yards before catch per reception0.8
Total YAC55
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted85.4
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game1.82
Rushing EPA per game-4.09

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.9%
End-zone target share4.8%
Red-zone carry share6%
Goal-line carry share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs0.45
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.45
Expected rushing TDs0.53

Who else ate

The offense threw it 516 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Evan Engram21.84%
Darius Slayton19.24%
Sterling Shepard18.04%
Golden Tate10.42%
Dion Lewis6.01%
Wayne Gallman5.41%
Ask the Coach about Saquon Barkley →
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