Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 14.69 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 23.6, usage worth 13.7.
29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 18.3 |
| ESPN | 27.1 |
| YAHOO | 25.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 18.8 |
| CBS | 23.4 |
| FFA | 21 |
| Goes around | Round 2, pick 12 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR8 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.8 picks |
Our board has him at 242.7 points, 14.8 per game — 81.1 catches, 1,136 yards, 8 TDs. That is WR2, 21 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.3 points per game to a ceiling of 18.8, with the median at 14.8. Boom rate 27%, bust rate 31%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 23.6 on consensus and our board has him 21. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
a genuinely bad statistical season by his OWN underlying metrics too, not just bad luck around him — route-success-rate and man/press/zone splits actually fell off. Read as partly motivation-driven; reportedly unhappy in Philly, which is thought to have shown up as real effort issues on top of the scheme problems. Expected to be extra-motivated in a fresh situation with better QB volume and accuracy.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-08New England Patriots returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, rb1. Drake Maye at quarterback, Mike Vrabel as head coach, Josh McDaniels calling it. The offense projects to 30.7 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.3 rushes.
In: Tommy DeVito (qb2), A.J. Brown (wr1), Romeo Doubs (wr2), Jam Miller (rb3), Lan Larison (rb4), Eli Raridon (te2). Out: Stefon Diggs (wr1), Antonio Gibson (rb3), Austin Hooper (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 23.1%, with a bear case of 22% and a bull case of 25.4% and a full range of 20.3% to 26.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| A.J. Brown ← | 23.1% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 10.5% |
| Hunter Henry | 9.9% |
| Demario Douglas | 9.7% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 9.4% |
| Romeo Doubs | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is an offense that is only getting better. TreVeyon Henderson COULD become the true featured RB on this high powered offense. AJ Brown could produce 2-3 more years at a VERY high level before fading. Romeo Doubs fits in very well and if his connection builds with Maye, he could be a very viable WR2 in PPR formats.
Key additions: Romeo Doubs WR from GB on 4 year deal, AJ Brown traded to Patriots by Eagles in June 2026 (will be teams WR1 in 2026). Drafted Caleb Lomu 1st round LT. Drafted TE Eli Raridon 3rd round. Drafted RB Jam Miller 7th round.
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs (released), RB Antonio Gibson (released), TE Austin Hooper (signed with Falcons), OT Vederian Lowe signed with 49ers (depth)
Notes: Maye dynasty franchise QB. Patriots signed Romeo Doubs from Packers (huge potential and solid player could be WR2). The Patriots WILL trade for AJ Brown from Eagles & he will be their WR1 next year. He has MASSIVE potential with Drake Maye. Henderson should operate as lead back in 2026, but Vrabel has done strange things with playing time for backs & Stevenson will work in. Henry is still TE1, but drafted Raridon round 3 TE — Vrabel uses TEs.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Drake Maye returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.5 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.7 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~28, prior share 29.8%, team change, OC continuity. Distribution: median 23.5%, p25-p75 [20.8%, 27.1%], tails [17.6%, 29.5%]. Closest comps: A.J. Brown 2021→2022 (TEN→PHI: 27.5%→28.4%); Davante Adams 2024→2025 (LV→LA: 31.0%→24.4%); Keenan Allen 2023→2024 (LAC→CHI: 28.2%→26.5%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
arrival self-anchored 41% to own 29.8% role (3yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NE rates 24.2 against a league average of 23, 1.2 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -0.7 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -12.5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Ainias Smith | +12 |
| 2021 | 2 | Josh Reynolds | +9.5 |
| 2020 | 2 | Kalif Raymond | +6.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -14% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 2024 | 15.8 | 73% | -16.4% |
| Keenan Allen | 2024 | 12.3 | 63% | -7% |
| Stefon Diggs | 2023 | 16.1 | 62% | -19.8% |
| Mike Evans | 2024 | 17.2 | 62% | -16.5% |
| Amari Cooper | 2023 | 15.1 | 61% | -18.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 0 gained value, 5 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 2, pick 51 by TEN |
| College | Mississippi |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 226 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 120″ |
| Career PPR per game | 16.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 25.4% |
| Bust rate | 15.5% |
| Games missed per season | 1.3 |
| Injury history | Knee, Hamstring, Chest |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.3 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 13 against CHI — 35.2 PPR on 12 targets and a 40% target share, in a game that finished 15-24. His worst was Week 1 against DAL at 1.8, on 1 targets, final score 24-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 4 decided by more, 20. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 13.7 points per game. He scored 14.69, 3.3% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 24-20 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | 87% |
| 2 | KC | 20-17 | 7.7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 38.1% | 97% |
| 3 | LA | 33-26 | 22.9 | 6 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 33.3% | 93% |
| 4 | TB | 31-25 | 2.7 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 37.5% | 96% |
| 5 | DEN | 17-21 | 9.3 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 21.6% | 93% |
| 6 | NYG | 17-34 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 80 | 0 | 28.1% | 96% |
| 7 | MIN | 28-22 | 28.1 | 4 | 6 | 121 | 2 | 26.1% | 92% |
| 10 | GB | 10-7 | 3.3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 13% | 78% |
| 11 | DET | 16-9 | 11.9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 40.7% | 93% |
| 12 | DAL | 21-24 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 110 | 1 | 27.8% | 94% |
| 13 | CHI | 15-24 | 35.2 | 10 | 12 | 132 | 2 | 40% | 96% |
| 14 | LAC | 19-22 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 100 | 0 | 34.2% | 97% |
| 15 | LV | 31-0 | 12.1 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 11.1% | 72% |
| 16 | WAS | 29-18 | 18.5 | 9 | 12 | 95 | 0 | 41.4% | 87% |
| 17 | BUF | 13-12 | 11.8 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 31.8% | 89% |
| Receptions | 78 |
| Targets | 121 |
| Receiving yards | 1,003 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 14.69 |
| Yards per target | 8.29 |
| Catch rate | 64.46% |
| Snap share | 90.67% |
| Target share | 28.65% |
| Air-yards share | 35.52% |
| WOPR | 0.678 |
| RACR | 0.74 |
| Average depth of target | 11.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.4 |
| Total YAC | 268 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 99.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.25 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 21% |
| End-zone target share | 23.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.08 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.08 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 11 of 44 |
| Yards per target | 18 of 44 |
| Target share | 10 of 44 |
| Air-yards share | 13 of 44 |
The offense threw it 497 times. He took 26.08% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 26.08% |
| DeVonta Smith | 24.35% |
| Dallas Goedert | 17.67% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.78% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.76% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2.8% |
2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 11.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.05 in those and 12.77 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against PIT — 25 PPR on 11 targets and a 35.5% target share, in a game that finished 27-13. His worst was Week 9 against JAX at 5.6, on 4 targets, final score 28-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.3; in the 6 decided by more, 18.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 12.5 points per game. He scored 16.68, 21% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 3.35 expected, a gap of 2.7.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 34-29 | 22.9 | 5 | 10 | 119 | 1 | 34.5% | 95% |
| 6 | CLE | 20-16 | 23.6 | 6 | 9 | 116 | 1 | 37.5% | 92% |
| 7 | NYG | 28-3 | 19.9 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 1 | 35.7% | 77% |
| 8 | CIN | 37-17 | 13.4 | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 | 31.6% | 82% |
| 9 | JAX | 28-23 | 5.6 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 17.4% | 47% |
| 10 | DAL | 34-6 | 15.9 | 5 | 7 | 109 | 0 | 35% | 74% |
| 11 | WAS | 26-18 | 11.5 | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 32% | 97% |
| 12 | LA | 37-20 | 22.9 | 6 | 7 | 109 | 1 | 36.8% | 89% |
| 13 | BAL | 24-19 | 11.6 | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 | 35.3% | 96% |
| 14 | CAR | 22-16 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 21.1% | 95% |
| 15 | PIT | 27-13 | 25 | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 | 35.5% | 91% |
| 16 | WAS | 33-36 | 23.7 | 8 | 15 | 97 | 1 | 60% | 100% |
| 17 | DAL | 41-7 | 12.6 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 27.8% | 91% |
| Receptions | 67 |
| Targets | 97 |
| Receiving yards | 1,079 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 16.68 |
| Yards per target | 11.12 |
| Catch rate | 69.07% |
| Snap share | 86.62% |
| Target share | 33.86% |
| Air-yards share | 47.22% |
| WOPR | 0.838 |
| RACR | 0.968 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Total YAC | 353 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 121.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.75 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 20.9% |
| End-zone target share | 30% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.35 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 2.65 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 12 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 1 of 51 |
| Target share | 2 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 51 |
The offense threw it 448 times. He took 23.26% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 23.26% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.34% |
| Dallas Goedert | 12.47% |
| Saquon Barkley | 10.31% |
| Jahan Dotson | 7.91% |
| Grant Calcaterra | 7.19% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 77 | 16.42 | 12.29 | 32.04% |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 20 | 18.15 | 6.65 | 43.9% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 39.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.94 in those and 15.31 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against WAS — 38.5 PPR on 13 targets and a 38.2% target share, in a game that finished 34-31. His worst was Week 18 against NYG at -0.1, on 1 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.7; in the 6 decided by more, 17.7. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16 points per game. He scored 17.04, 6.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 25-20 | 14.9 | 7 | 10 | 79 | 0 | 33.3% | 91% |
| 2 | MIN | 34-28 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 27.3% | 96% |
| 3 | TB | 25-11 | 22.1 | 9 | 14 | 131 | 0 | 40% | 83% |
| 4 | WAS | 34-31 | 38.5 | 9 | 13 | 175 | 2 | 38.2% | 96% |
| 5 | LA | 23-14 | 18.7 | 6 | 8 | 127 | 0 | 23.5% | 99% |
| 6 | NYJ | 14-20 | 20.1 | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 | 20.9% | 96% |
| 7 | MIA | 31-17 | 29.7 | 10 | 15 | 137 | 1 | 50% | 82% |
| 8 | WAS | 38-31 | 33 | 8 | 8 | 130 | 2 | 22.9% | 98% |
| 9 | DAL | 28-23 | 19.6 | 7 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 42.9% | 97% |
| 11 | KC | 21-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 19% | 95% |
| 12 | BUF | 37-34 | 14.7 | 5 | 9 | 37 | 1 | 32.1% | 94% |
| 13 | SF | 19-42 | 19.4 | 8 | 13 | 114 | 0 | 31% | 86% |
| 14 | DAL | 13-33 | 16.4 | 9 | 13 | 94 | 0 | 46.4% | 93% |
| 15 | SEA | 17-20 | 10.6 | 5 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 16 | NYG | 33-25 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 80 | 0 | 30.6% | 97% |
| 17 | ARI | 31-35 | 9.3 | 4 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 21.7% | 94% |
| 18 | NYG | 10-27 | -0.1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | 18% |
| Receptions | 106 |
| Targets | 158 |
| Receiving yards | 1,456 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 17.04 |
| Yards per target | 9.22 |
| Catch rate | 67.09% |
| Snap share | 88.88% |
| Target share | 30.36% |
| Air-yards share | 38.67% |
| WOPR | 0.726 |
| RACR | 0.795 |
| Average depth of target | 11.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.5 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 473 |
| Broken tackles | 12 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.87 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 32.7% |
| End-zone target share | 36% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.2 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.2 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 51 |
| Target share | 5 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 51 |
The offense threw it 562 times. He took 30.1% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 30.1% |
| DeVonta Smith | 21.33% |
| Dallas Goedert | 15.81% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.33% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 7.05% |
| Quez Watkins | 4% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16 | 157 | 18.11 | 9.22 | 32.07% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | -0.1 | 9 | 3% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 12.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.9 in those and 16.67 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against PIT — 39.6 PPR on 10 targets and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 35-13. His worst was Week 10 against WAS at 1.7, on 4 targets, final score 21-32. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.6; in the 9 decided by more, 19.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 17.62, 16.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 38-35 | 25.5 | 10 | 13 | 155 | 0 | 44.8% | 87% |
| 2 | MIN | 24-7 | 11.9 | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 | 25.8% | 88% |
| 3 | WAS | 24-8 | 19.5 | 5 | 10 | 85 | 1 | 29.4% | 80% |
| 4 | JAX | 29-21 | 14.5 | 5 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 29.2% | 85% |
| 5 | ARI | 20-17 | 6.2 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 20.6% | 74% |
| 6 | DAL | 26-17 | 17.7 | 5 | 8 | 67 | 1 | 36.4% | 86% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-13 | 39.6 | 6 | 10 | 156 | 3 | 33.3% | 68% |
| 9 | HOU | 29-17 | 15.9 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 1 | 24% | 86% |
| 10 | WAS | 21-32 | 1.7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16% | 78% |
| 11 | IND | 17-16 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 30.4% | 88% |
| 12 | GB | 40-33 | 12.6 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 | 24% | 96% |
| 13 | TEN | 35-10 | 31.9 | 8 | 10 | 119 | 2 | 26.3% | 82% |
| 14 | NYG | 48-22 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 19.4% | 85% |
| 15 | CHI | 25-20 | 27.1 | 9 | 16 | 181 | 0 | 43.2% | 89% |
| 16 | DAL | 34-40 | 16.3 | 6 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 23.5% | 92% |
| 17 | NO | 10-20 | 19.7 | 4 | 9 | 97 | 1 | 28.1% | 100% |
| 18 | NYG | 22-16 | 13.5 | 4 | 10 | 95 | 0 | 32.3% | 79% |
| Receptions | 88 |
| Targets | 145 |
| Receiving yards | 1,496 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 17.62 |
| Yards per target | 10.32 |
| Catch rate | 60.69% |
| Snap share | 84.88% |
| Target share | 28.63% |
| Air-yards share | 39.63% |
| WOPR | 0.706 |
| RACR | 0.921 |
| Average depth of target | 12.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Total YAC | 548 |
| Broken tackles | 7 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 112.3 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 3.29 |
| Red-zone targets | 16 |
| Red-zone target share | 25% |
| End-zone target share | 31.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.02 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.02 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 2 of 51 |
| Target share | 9 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 5 of 51 |
The offense threw it 536 times. He took 28.71% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 28.71% |
| DeVonta Smith | 26.93% |
| Dallas Goedert | 13.66% |
| Quez Watkins | 10.1% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5.74% |
| Miles Sanders | 5.15% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 15 | 128 | 17.57 | 10.13 | 29.01% |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 17 | 18 | 11.76 | 25.8% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 25.1 in those and 15.59 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 8 against IND — 31.5 PPR on 11 targets and a 34.4% target share, in a game that finished 34-31. His worst was Week 3 against IND at 0.3, on 2 targets, final score 25-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.8; in the 7 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.1 points per game. He scored 13.92, 4.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-38 | 14.9 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 1 | 22.2% | 81% |
| 2 | SEA | 33-30 | 7.3 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 0 | 23.1% | 84% |
| 3 | IND | 25-16 | 0.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.7% | 12% |
| 5 | JAX | 37-19 | 6.8 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 28.6% | 64% |
| 6 | BUF | 34-31 | 16.1 | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 | 36% | 79% |
| 7 | KC | 27-3 | 27.3 | 8 | 9 | 133 | 1 | 33.3% | 62% |
| 8 | IND | 34-31 | 31.5 | 10 | 11 | 155 | 1 | 34.4% | 92% |
| 9 | LA | 28-16 | 9.2 | 5 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 42.3% | 78% |
| 10 | NO | 23-21 | 3.3 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 14.8% | 82% |
| 11 | HOU | 13-22 | 9.8 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 | 17.6% | 52% |
| 16 | SF | 20-17 | 31.5 | 11 | 16 | 145 | 1 | 53.3% | 74% |
| 17 | MIA | 34-3 | 6.1 | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 27.8% | 63% |
| 18 | HOU | 28-25 | 16.8 | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 18.8% | 82% |
| Receptions | 63 |
| Targets | 105 |
| Receiving yards | 869 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 10 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 13.92 |
| Yards per target | 8.28 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Yards per carry | 5 |
| Snap share | 69.62% |
| Target share | 27.68% |
| Air-yards share | 42.67% |
| WOPR | 0.715 |
| RACR | 0.69 |
| Average depth of target | 11.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.9 |
| Total YAC | 248 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 94.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.6 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.04 |
| Red-zone targets | 12 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.1% |
| End-zone target share | 21.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.84 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.16 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 25 of 48 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 48 |
| Target share | 7 of 48 |
| Air-yards share | 2 of 48 |
The offense threw it 534 times. He took 20.23% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 20.23% |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 10.98% |
| Julio Jones | 9.25% |
| Anthony Firkser | 8.29% |
| Chester Rogers | 8.29% |
| Geoff Swaim | 7.71% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 30.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.78 in those and 17.75 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against HOU — 31.1 PPR on 11 targets and a 40.7% target share, in a game that finished 41-38. His worst was Week 10 against IND at 3.1, on 4 targets, final score 17-34. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.6; in the 7 decided by more, 15.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 13.9 points per game. He scored 17.68, 28% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 4.04 expected, a gap of 4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 16-14 | 8.9 | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 20% | 81% |
| 5 | BUF | 42-16 | 21.2 | 7 | 9 | 82 | 1 | 32.1% | 71% |
| 6 | HOU | 42-36 | 22.8 | 5 | 7 | 58 | 2 | 17.1% | 84% |
| 7 | PIT | 24-27 | 27.3 | 6 | 8 | 153 | 1 | 26.7% | 93% |
| 8 | CIN | 20-31 | 12.4 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 24.1% | 94% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 20.1 | 4 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 42.9% | 82% |
| 10 | IND | 17-34 | 3.1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 14.8% | 75% |
| 11 | BAL | 30-24 | 16.2 | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 | 21.9% | 81% |
| 12 | IND | 45-26 | 25.8 | 4 | 6 | 98 | 1 | 30% | 81% |
| 13 | CLE | 35-41 | 10.7 | 4 | 7 | 87 | 0 | 16.7% | 86% |
| 14 | JAX | 31-10 | 24.2 | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 | 39.1% | 56% |
| 15 | DET | 46-25 | 15.4 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 23.1% | 84% |
| 16 | GB | 14-40 | 8.3 | 4 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 32% | 76% |
| 17 | HOU | 41-38 | 31.1 | 10 | 11 | 151 | 1 | 40.7% | 90% |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Targets | 106 |
| Receiving yards | 1,075 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 17.68 |
| Yards per target | 10.14 |
| Catch rate | 66.04% |
| Snap share | 81% |
| Target share | 27.23% |
| Air-yards share | 33.89% |
| WOPR | 0.645 |
| RACR | 0.959 |
| Average depth of target | 10.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Total YAC | 432 |
| Broken tackles | 13 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 126.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 14 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.7% |
| End-zone target share | 19.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.04 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 3.96 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 6 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 4 of 51 |
| Target share | 5 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 11 of 51 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 22.99% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| A.J. Brown ← | 22.99% |
| Corey Davis | 19.96% |
| Jonnu Smith | 14.1% |
| Anthony Firkser | 11.5% |
| Adam Humphries | 7.59% |
| Derrick Henry | 6.72% |
6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 39.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.33 in those and 19.59 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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