WR · PHI · GWTTKB

Elijah Moore — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.18 points per game in 2025, usage worth 3.1.

26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 11.8 points, 0.7 per game — 4.5 catches, 49 yards, 0.4 TDs. That is WR6, 378 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 0.4 points per game to a ceiling of 1.5, with the median at 0.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 39%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Philadelphia Eagles returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1, oc. Jalen Hurts at quarterback, Nick Sirianni as head coach, Sean Mannion calling it. The offense projects to 31 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 27.4 rushes.

In: Makai Lemon (wr2), Marquise Brown (wr3), Dontayvion Wicks (wr4), Elijah Moore (wr6), Quez Watkins (wr7), Dameon Pierce (rb4), Eli Stowers (te2). Out: AJ Brown (wr1), Britain Covey (wr3), Johnny Wilson (wr4), Grant Calcaterra (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 10%, with a bear case of 8.6% and a bull case of 11.7% and a full range of 5.5% to 12.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Devonta Smith17.8%
Dallas Goedert17.4%
Makai Lemon17.1%
Elijah Moore 10%
Eli Stowers8.9%
Saquon Barkley6.6%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: If the Eagles can get their offense humming again, this is an offense you want to own a lot of players in. They can produce at a very high level for you. Hurts in particular regardless of play will be a top QB because of the tush push.

Key additions: Drafted WR Makai Lemon 1st round. Traded for Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks, Signed Hollywood Brown. Drafted TE Eli Stowers (great passing catching TE)

Key departures: AJ Brown. He is going to be traded to the Patriots in June 2026.

Notes: AJ Brown is going to be traded to the Patriots. He will not be on the team. Devonta Smith is primed to BREAKOUT as a WR1 IF he can maintain target share. Drafted Makai Lemon Round 1, Eli Stowers (great receiving TE who was also scouted as WR). Eagles also traded for Dontayvion Wicks from Packers who is a talented WR but hasn't put it all together yet. Signed Marquiese Brown in free agency who is expected to operate as WR3/4. There are a lot of mouths to feed on this offense and not all of them can be fantasy relevant. Saquon had a rough 2025 season but should be great in 2026 IF Jalen Hurts can improve his level of play. There are a lot of targets available with AJ Brown leaving.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jalen Hurts returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (29.2 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31 att/g; New OC Sean Mannion — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 16.3%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 10.8%, p25-p75 [8.6%, 14.3%], tails [2.8%, 15.9%]. Closest comps: Elijah Moore 2024→2025 (CLE→BUF: 15.7%→7.2%); Danny Amendola 2020→2021 (DET→HOU: 18.1%→14.8%); Sammy Watkins 2020→2021 (KC→BAL: 17.6%→14.0%). Adjustment: +3% from real_breakout (sustainable)

arrival self-anchored 32% to own 16.3% role (2yr)

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: PHI rates 23.5 against a league average of 23, 0.5 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+7.6 · easier
Weeks 1–6+5.6 · easier
Weeks 12–17+4.2 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-6.1 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -37.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Devin Duvernay20230.660%+13.2%
Mecole Hardman2023458%+17.8%
Devin Duvernay20241.557%-11.7%
Laviska Shenault Jr.20225.654%-27.7%
Kalif Raymond20235.754%+38.3%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,00020222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2021-04 to 2026-07. Down 70% across the series, peaking at 5,555.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2021, round 2, pick 34 by NYJ
CollegeMississippi
Age at draft21
40-yard dash4.35s
Vertical36″
Broad jump121″
3-cone6.63s
Shuttle4.07s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game7.8
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate23.1%
Bust rate40.4%
Games missed per season0.4
Injury historyConcussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.57

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · BUF · 9 games

His best game was Week 2 against NYJ — 10.7 PPR on 1 targets and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 30-10. His worst was Week 6 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 14-24. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.2; in the 6 decided by more, 3.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.1 points per game. He scored 3.18, 2.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL41-402.111302.2%14%
2NYJ30-1010.7113114%40%
3MIA31-216.12330011.1%23%
4NO31-19000000%31%
6ATL14-24002007.7%25%
8CAR40-92.41414017.4%46%
9KC28-213.8112804%26%
10MIA13-302.822905.1%37%
12HOU19-230.713-309.4%41%

Production

Receptions9
Targets17
Receiving yards112
Carries6
Rushing yards24
Touchdowns1
Points per game3.18
Yards per target6.59
Catch rate52.94%
Yards per carry4

Role

Snap share31.44%
Target share6.77%
Air-yards share9.66%
WOPR0.17
RACR1.522

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.4
Yards after catch per reception6.4
Yards before catch per reception6
Total YAC58
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted49.1
Receiving EPA per game-0.43

Scoring position

Red-zone targets0
Red-zone target share0%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share0.8%
Goal-line carry share2.1%
Expected receiving TDs0
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck0
Expected rushing TDs0.39

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Khalil Shakir19.83%
Keon Coleman12.32%
Dawson Knox10.23%
Dalton Kincaid10.23%
James Cook8.35%
Josh Palmer7.72%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 9 games were blowouts, 55.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.3 in those and 2.2 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CLE · 17 games

His best game was Week 13 against DEN — 19.2 PPR on 14 targets and a 24.6% target share, in a game that finished 32-41. His worst was Week 17 against MIA at 1.1, on 5 targets, final score 3-20. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7; in the 10 decided by more, 7.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.6 points per game. He scored 7.11, 33.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.5 expected, a gap of -1.5.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1DAL17-333.9369014%93%
2JAX18-1310.46844024.2%72%
3NYG15-213.7231708.6%81%
4LV16-202.1111103.1%73%
5WAS13-344.13411014.3%69%
6PHI16-201.311304.3%67%
7CIN14-2110.16641012.5%64%
8BAL29-2416.581285029.3%71%
9LAC10-275.83928019.6%76%
11NO14-3518.66866117.8%73%
12PIT24-195.13521018.5%69%
13DEN32-4119.2814111024.6%74%
14PIT14-276.43434010.8%83%
15KC7-211.926-1018.8%85%
16CIN6-244.12521016.1%77%
17MIA3-201.1151011.6%65%
18BAL10-356.63536015.2%95%

Production

Receptions61
Targets102
Receiving yards538
Carries1
Rushing yards1
Touchdowns1
Points per game7.11
Yards per target5.27
Catch rate59.8%
Yards per carry1

Role

Snap share75.71%
Target share15.49%
Air-yards share16.89%
WOPR0.35
RACR0.693

Efficiency

Average depth of target9.3
Yards after catch per reception2.2
Yards before catch per reception6.6
Total YAC133
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted44.5
Receiving EPA per game-2.17
Rushing EPA per game-0.03

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share11.5%
End-zone target share9.7%
Expected receiving TDs1.5
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.5

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game51 of 51
Yards per target50 of 51
Target share49 of 51
Air-yards share45 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 661 times. He took 16.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jerry Jeudy22.87%
Elijah Moore 16.09%
David Njoku15.3%
Jordan Akins9.15%
Amari Cooper8.36%
Cedric Tillman7.73%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Jameis Winston75810.55.9319.91%
Deshaun Watson6234.254.1311.42%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson3165.13.9413.4%
Bailey Zappe156.67.215.2%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.72 in those and 7.03 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · CLE · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against NYJ — 17.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 20.7% target share, in a game that finished 37-20. His worst was Week 4 against BAL at 2, on 4 targets, final score 3-28. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.4; in the 8 decided by more, 8.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.7 points per game. He scored 8.26, 25.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1CIN24-39.23743219024.1%69%
2PIT22-267.1393615022.5%77%
3TEN27-311.899493-1029%76%
4BAL3-28224201-20011.8%83%
6SF19-176.7471918021.2%80%
7IND39-389.9475900020%79%
8SEA20-245253000016.7%82%
9ARI27-03.422140007.1%62%
10BAL33-3115.4574400121.9%83%
11PIT13-1012676000017.1%71%
12DEN12-295.4394410023.1%86%
13LA19-3612.34128300029.3%73%
14JAX31-277.2364200014%70%
15CHI20-173.723170006.8%78%
16HOU36-223.924190009.3%82%
17NYJ37-2017.1566100120.7%53%

Production

Receptions59
Targets104
Receiving yards640
Carries9
Rushing yards11
Touchdowns2
Points per game8.26
Yards per target6.15
Catch rate56.73%
Yards per carry1.22

Role

Snap share75.25%
Target share18.41%
Air-yards share21.97%
WOPR0.429
RACR0.94

Efficiency

Average depth of target11
Yards after catch per reception3.2
Yards before catch per reception7.6
Total YAC191
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted73.4
Receiving EPA per game-0.11
Rushing EPA per game-0.64

Scoring position

Red-zone targets14
Red-zone target share19.4%
End-zone target share18.8%
Red-zone carry share1.4%
Expected receiving TDs2.94
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.94
Expected rushing TDs0.05

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game49 of 51
Yards per target49 of 51
Target share40 of 51
Air-yards share42 of 51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 624 times. He took 17.42% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Amari Cooper21.44%
David Njoku20.6%
Elijah Moore 17.42%
Jerome Ford10.55%
Cedric Tillman7.37%
Jordan Akins3.85%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Deshaun Watson5349.385.4720.92%
Joe Flacco5318.847.1616.02%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson3206.476.217.33%
P.J. Walker3197.25.6819.3%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 16 games were blowouts, 46.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.74 in those and 8.38 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · NYJ · 14 games

His best game was Week 12 against CHI — 14 PPR on 2 targets and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 31-10. His worst was Week 8 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 17-22. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 6 decided by more, 7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 6.29, 20.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.22 expected, a gap of -1.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL9-249.95749012.3%89%
2CLE31-306.53541011.6%87%
3CIN12-278.94949018.8%94%
4PIT24-208.53453012.1%90%
5MIA40-172.11411019%66%
8NE17-22001002.9%17%
11NE3-103.72417020%54%
12CHI31-1014226417.1%35%
13MIN22-273.7267010.9%68%
14BUF12-201261060022.7%83%
15DET17-209.44751020.6%75%
16JAX3-193.52315010%81%
17SEA6-233.8221804.4%70%
18MIA6-112.1111103.1%70%

Production

Receptions37
Targets65
Receiving yards446
Carries5
Rushing yards5
Touchdowns1
Points per game6.29
Yards per target6.86
Catch rate56.92%
Yards per carry1

Role

Snap share69.93%
Target share12.54%
Air-yards share16.89%
WOPR0.305
RACR0.663

Efficiency

Average depth of target11.7
Yards after catch per reception3.1
Yards before catch per reception8.9
Total YAC115
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted76.8
Receiving EPA per game0.1
Rushing EPA per game-0.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share11.1%
End-zone target share8%
Expected receiving TDs1.22
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.22

Who else ate

The offense threw it 625 times. He took 11.07% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson25.04%
Tyler Conklin14.82%
Elijah Moore 11.07%
Corey Davis10.9%
Michael Carter9.2%
Braxton Berrios5.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson6234.536.3914.1%
Joe Flacco4226.856.8211.45%
Mike White4208.387.4511.28%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 22.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.63 in those and 5.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · NYJ · 11 games

His best game was Week 11 against MIA — 29.6 PPR on 11 targets and a 31.4% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 5 against ATL at 0, on 2 targets, final score 20-27. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 6 decided by more, 14.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 12.1 points per game. He scored 12.56, 3.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 1.8 expected, a gap of 2.2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CAR14-190.714-3011.1%86%
2NE6-258.74847024.2%78%
3DEN0-265.23622018.2%48%
5ATL20-27002006.5%41%
7NE13-5410.21613114.6%57%
8CIN34-3113.16667012.2%36%
9IND30-4527.47884215.4%60%
10BUF17-4513.43644113%56%
11MIA17-2429.6811141131.4%80%
12HOU21-149.34846034.8%88%
13PHI18-3320.661277133.3%86%

Production

Receptions43
Targets77
Receiving yards538
Carries5
Rushing yards54
Touchdowns6
Points per game12.56
Yards per target6.99
Catch rate55.84%
Yards per carry10.8

Role

Snap share65.09%
Target share19.52%
Air-yards share29.72%
WOPR0.501
RACR0.684

Efficiency

Average depth of target11.7
Yards after catch per reception4.8
Yards before catch per reception7.7
Total YAC207
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted77.7
Receiving EPA per game-0.12
Rushing EPA per game0.5

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share12.3%
End-zone target share15.8%
Red-zone carry share2.7%
Expected receiving TDs1.8
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck2.2
Expected rushing TDs0.1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 603 times. He took 13.32% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Elijah Moore 13.32%
Jamison Crowder12.28%
Braxton Berrios11.25%
Corey Davis10.21%
Ty Johnson9.52%
Michael Carter9.52%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson6407.424.7221.35%
Mike White31812.236.8913.27%
Josh Johnson1827.410.515.4%
Joe Flacco11129.612.8231.4%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 11 games were blowouts, 27.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.38 in those and 10.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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