What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 147.8 overall.
Tyler Allgeier scored 123 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 115.5. That gap of 7.5 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 147.8 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 14: rushing TDs went down from 0.7 to 0, a 100% change, at 3.55 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offense around him got worse at moving the ball. He also missed Week 5.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a stable year. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 7.24 points per game on 159 touches — a 15.8% jump on his 2024 rate with ATL. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the carries he took, where on the field they started, and the targets he drew out of the backfield, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 115.5 points — 6.8 per game. He scored 7.5 more than that, a 6.5% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 624 rushing yards and 4.6 rushing touchdowns, plus 12.5 catches for 94 yards and 0.6 receiving touchdowns, and he cleared it.
Not one of his 17 games cleared 25 points. His best was 17.7 in Week 10. He wins with volume rather than with weeks that swing a matchup.
A steady floor has its own value in a lineup that needs one. 12 games came in under 10 points, including Week 1 against TB (2.4) and Week 3 against CAR (1.4).
The three largest overshoots — Week 10 (+10.8), Week 13 (+5.3), Week 11 (+4.5) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
Not one of his 4 seasons is flagged as running hot. Across all 4 he has scored 0.8 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 95 graded prop lines, he has gone over 47.4% of the time. On rushing yards specifically the number is 43.8% across 32 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 24.3%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 31.4% rate and he converted at 31.3% — a gap of -0.2 points, which is noise.
Arizona returns 2 of 6 continuity slots — wr1, te1 — with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach and Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.86 pass attempts a game at low confidence.
That number is built from 25 comparable players — same age band, same prior share, same team, same coordinator — not from a depth chart. The closest three went Damien Harris 6.3% to 5.1%, Gus Edwards 5.1% to 0%, Malcolm Brown 4.8% to 3.1%. One held, 2 did not.
Across 2,022 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. time to the line of scrimmage (r 0.128), snap-share trend (r 0.103), recent scoring form (r 0.078) carry. week-to-week volatility (r -0.163) and receiving EPA per game (r -0.143) run negative — a player who was hyper-efficient on low volume tends to come back down, so a gaudy per-touch number is a warning rather than a selling point.
So the figures worth weighing for him: 143 carries, 46.4% of his team’s red-zone carries, 50% of the goal-line work, a 30.2% snap share. His carries produced -0.081 EPA per play, and he ran a 5.5% target share out of the backfield.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 102 games, ARI has come in -0.1 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 53% of weeks.
That is close to neutral — the offense performs about where the market expects, so there is no environment bonus or penalty to apply to him either way.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 88.6 points, 5.5 per game across 16 expected games — 444 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns, 10.3 catches for 69 yards. That is RB6, 158 overall, and -69 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
The books do not agree on him. . That 39.4-pick gap between Yahoo and ESPN is the practical thing to act on: in a ESPN-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 147.8 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 39.4 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on espn and earliest on yahoo: sleeper 146.2, espn 169.4, yahoo 130, underdog 149.8, cbs 145.6.
He goes at 147.8 and our board has him 158. That is 10.2 picks of premium on a RB6 projection — the room is paying ahead of where the numbers put him. That does not make him a bad player; it makes this a bad price.
The case for: a 99% boom rate; 50% of his team’s goal-line carries, which is the most repeatable touchdown source at the position.
The case against: a 66% bust rate.
The call: let the room have him at that price, and be glad to take him if he falls.
Ask the Coach about Tyler Allgeier Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 95 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.