Kendrick Bourne — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.58 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 6.3.

31 years old · 9 seasons of experience · 2017 draft class

ESPN	170
UNDERDOG	216
FFA	266

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	WR122

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 83.1 points, 5.1 per game — 33.5 catches, 400 yards, 1.6 TDs. That is WR6, 251 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 1.9 points per game to a ceiling of 10.5, with the median at 5.1. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 61%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 251. We rank him 81 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.4%, with a bear case of 4.3% and a bull case of 6.7% and a full range of 2.5% to 7.9%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Trey McBride	21.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr	14.4%
Michael Wilson	13.9%
Jeremiyah Love	10%
Elijah Higgins	6.2%
James Conner	6.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6	-0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17	-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-1 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +9.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2024	6.5	75%	-42.7%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2023	3.5	67%	+32.9%
K.J. Osborn	2024	2.7	65%	-15.1%
Michael Gallup	2023	5.5	64%	-68.5%
Josh Reynolds	2024	4.8	63%	-12.7%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Height	6′1″
Weight	203 lb
40-yard dash	4.68s
Vertical	34″
Broad jump	125″
3-cone	6.73s
Shuttle	4.21s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	8.1
Week-to-week variation	0.8
Boom rate	18.8%
Bust rate	28.1%
Games missed per season	0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	0.14

The record, season by season

2025 · SF · 14 games

His best game was Week 5 against LA — 24.2 PPR on 11 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 26-23. His worst was Week 18 against SEA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 3-13. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.9; in the 9 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 6.58, 1.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
2	NO	26-21	6.2	3	3	32	0	7.9%	49%
3	ARI	16-15	7.8	4	6	38	0	15.8%	72%
4	JAX	21-26	2.7	1	4	17	0	10.8%	67%
5	LA	26-23	24.2	10	11	142	0	22.9%	81%
6	TB	19-30	19.2	5	9	142	0	24.3%	80%
7	ATL	20-10	3.4	2	2	14	0	8.3%	78%
8	HOU	15-26	7.4	3	4	44	0	12.9%	79%
9	NYG	34-24	5.4	2	2	34	0	8.7%	73%
10	LA	26-42	2.9	1	1	19	0	2.6%	68%
13	CLE	26-8	0	0	1	0	0	4.3%	34%
15	TEN	37-24	3.7	2	3	17	0	10.7%	45%
16	IND	48-27	5.7	3	5	27	0	15.2%	70%
17	CHI	42-38	3.5	1	1	25	0	3%	26%
18	SEA	3-13	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	52%

Production

Receptions	37
Targets	53
Receiving yards	551
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	6.58
Yards per target	10.4
Catch rate	69.81%

Role

Snap share	62.43%
Target share	10.79%
Air-yards share	14.8%
WOPR	0.266
RACR	0.829

Efficiency

Average depth of target	11
Yards after catch per reception	4.5
Yards before catch per reception	10.4
Total YAC	165
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	87.9
Receiving EPA per game	1.47

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	2.2%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.44
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. He took 10.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Christian McCaffrey	24.76%
Jauan Jennings	17.27%
George Kittle	13.24%
Kendrick Bourne ←	10.17%
Ricky Pearsall	10.17%
Jake Tonges	8.83%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Mac Jones	8	38	9.56	12.24	12.93%
Brock Purdy	6	15	2.6	5.73	7.95%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 14 games were blowouts, 6.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.85 in those and 8.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · NE · 12 games

His best game was Week 11 against LA — 18 PPR on 5 targets and a 13.5% target share, in a game that finished 22-28. His worst was Week 8 against NYJ at 0, on 3 targets, final score 25-22. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6; in the 5 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5.42, 3.3% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
5	MIA	10-15	1.6	1	1	6	0	3.3%	27%
6	HOU	21-41	2.9	2	2	9	0	6.5%	52%
7	JAX	16-32	2.4	1	2	14	0	5.6%	62%
8	NYJ	25-22	0	0	3	0	0	10.3%	78%
9	TEN	17-20	8.1	4	6	41	0	15.4%	78%
11	LA	22-28	18	5	5	70	1	13.5%	47%
12	MIA	15-34	6	3	5	30	0	13.5%	59%
13	IND	24-25	7.5	3	3	39	0	10%	64%
15	ARI	17-30	7.4	3	3	44	0	13%	53%
16	BUF	21-24	3.8	2	2	18	0	6.5%	70%
17	LAC	7-40	4.2	2	4	22	0	17.4%	72%
18	BUF	23-16	3.2	2	2	12	0	7.1%	38%

Production

Receptions	28
Targets	38
Receiving yards	305
Carries	1
Rushing yards	6
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	5.42
Yards per target	8.03
Catch rate	73.68%
Yards per carry	6

Role

Snap share	58.33%
Target share	10.17%
Air-yards share	12.12%
WOPR	0.238
RACR	1.135

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9.3
Yards after catch per reception	3.4
Yards before catch per reception	7.5
Total YAC	94
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	105.7
Receiving EPA per game	0.68
Rushing EPA per game	0.06

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	3.2%
End-zone target share	8%
Expected receiving TDs	0.8
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	0.2

Who else ate

The offense threw it 529 times. He took 7.63% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Hunter Henry	19.48%
Demario Douglas	17.47%
Kayshon Boutte	13.65%
Austin Hooper	11.85%
Rhamondre Stevenson	8.23%
Kendrick Bourne ←	7.63%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Drake Maye	9	32	6.7	8.97	11.27%
Jacoby Brissett	2	4	0.8	1.5	6.8%
Joe Milton	1	2	3.2	6	7.1%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 20.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.37 in those and 6.03 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · NE · 8 games

His best game was Week 1 against PHI — 24.4 PPR on 11 targets and a 20.4% target share, in a game that finished 20-25. His worst was Week 4 against DAL at 5.6, on 3 targets, final score 3-38. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.1; in the 3 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 11.8 points per game. He scored 12.5, 5.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.62 expected, a gap of 1.4.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	PHI	20-25	24.4	6	11	64	2	20.4%	91%
2	MIA	17-24	6.9	4	9	29	0	21.4%	51%
3	NYJ	15-10	8.6	4	5	46	0	18.5%	56%
4	DAL	3-38	5.6	2	3	36	0	10.3%	53%
5	NO	0-34	6.3	2	5	43	0	16.1%	87%
6	LV	17-21	19.3	10	11	89	0	35.5%	93%
7	BUF	29-25	16.3	6	7	63	1	23.3%	93%
8	MIA	17-31	12.6	3	4	36	1	14.3%	60%

Production

Receptions	37
Targets	55
Receiving yards	406
Carries	1
Rushing yards	4
Touchdowns	4
Points per game	12.5
Yards per target	7.38
Catch rate	67.27%
Yards per carry	4

Role

Snap share	73%
Target share	19.98%
Air-yards share	23.31%
WOPR	0.462
RACR	1.665

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.4
Yards after catch per reception	5.5
Yards before catch per reception	5.5
Total YAC	203
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	90.4
Receiving EPA per game	-1.19
Rushing EPA per game	0.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	6
Red-zone target share	15%
End-zone target share	12.5%
Expected receiving TDs	1.62
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	1.38

Who else ate

The offense threw it 557 times. He took 10.17% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Demario Douglas	14.6%
Ezekiel Elliott	12.01%
Hunter Henry	11.28%
DeVante Parker	10.17%
Kendrick Bourne ←	10.17%
Rhamondre Stevenson	9.43%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 11.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.95 in those and 15.1 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · NE · 16 games

His best game was Week 16 against CIN — 24.9 PPR on 9 targets and a 29% target share, in a game that finished 18-22. His worst was Week 15 against LV at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-30. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.6; in the 8 decided by more, 5.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.1 points per game. He scored 5.52, 7.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	MIA	7-20	5.1	1	1	41	0	3.3%	4%
2	PIT	17-14	3.6	2	3	16	0	8.8%	35%
3	BAL	26-37	9.8	4	5	58	0	15.6%	27%
4	GB	24-27	5.8	2	3	23	0	15%	45%
5	DET	29-0	1	1	1	1	0	4.8%	57%
6	CLE	38-15	2.7	1	1	17	0	3.2%	6%
8	NYJ	22-17	0	0	1	0	0	3.1%	69%
9	IND	26-3	4.2	3	4	11	0	13.8%	76%
11	NYJ	10-3	1.8	1	1	8	0	3.7%	38%
12	MIN	26-33	5.9	3	4	36	0	11.4%	69%
13	BUF	10-24	2.5	1	2	15	0	5.9%	37%
14	ARI	27-13	9.7	5	5	47	0	15.2%	71%
15	LV	24-30	0	0	1	0	0	3.3%	17%
16	CIN	18-22	24.9	6	9	100	1	29%	57%
17	MIA	23-21	2.8	1	2	16	0	6.3%	47%
18	BUF	23-35	8.5	4	5	45	0	12.8%	53%

Production

Receptions	35
Targets	48
Receiving yards	434
Carries	6
Rushing yards	39
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	5.52
Yards per target	9.04
Catch rate	72.92%
Yards per carry	6.5

Role

Snap share	44.25%
Target share	9.7%
Air-yards share	10.87%
WOPR	0.222
RACR	1.201

Efficiency

Average depth of target	10.3
Yards after catch per reception	4.1
Yards before catch per reception	8.3
Total YAC	145
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	90.1
Receiving EPA per game	0.84
Rushing EPA per game	-0.1

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	5
Red-zone target share	9.8%
End-zone target share	11.8%
Red-zone carry share	3.2%
Expected receiving TDs	1.29
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-0.29
Expected rushing TDs	0.11

Who else ate

The offense threw it 540 times. He took 9.36% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jakobi Meyers	18.71%
Rhamondre Stevenson	17.15%
Hunter Henry	11.5%
Nelson Agholor	10.33%
Kendrick Bourne ←	9.36%
DeVante Parker	9.16%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Mac Jones	13	43	6.06	9.14	10.17%
Bailey Zappe	3	5	3.17	8.2	7.67%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.63 in those and 5.6 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · NE · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against CLE — 24.1 PPR on 4 targets and a 16% target share, in a game that finished 45-7. His worst was Week 13 against BUF at 0.3, on 0 targets, final score 14-10. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.8; in the 11 decided by more, 12.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 10.62, 54.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	MIA	16-17	2.7	1	3	17	0	0	0	7.9%	44%
2	NYJ	25-6	4.6	2	3	10	1	16	0	10.7%	54%
3	NO	13-28	21.6	6	8	96	0	0	1	15.7%	76%
4	TB	17-19	10.8	5	5	58	0	0	0	11.9%	61%
5	HOU	25-22	6.8	3	3	26	1	12	0	10.7%	50%
6	DAL	29-35	14.5	1	2	75	0	0	1	9.5%	46%
7	NYJ	54-13	15.8	4	4	68	0	0	1	10%	54%
8	LAC	27-24	5.8	4	7	38	0	0	0	20.6%	30%
9	CAR	24-6	6.4	3	4	34	0	0	0	22.2%	53%
10	CLE	45-7	24.1	4	4	98	3	43	1	16%	43%
11	ATL	25-0	8.9	4	4	42	1	7	0	15.4%	45%
12	TEN	36-13	23.1	5	6	61	0	0	2	18.8%	55%
13	BUF	14-10	0.3	0	0	0	1	3	0	0%	29%
15	IND	17-27	9.3	3	3	44	2	19	0	6.8%	71%
16	BUF	21-33	5.3	2	4	33	0	0	0	12.9%	47%
17	JAX	50-10	14.3	5	6	76	2	17	0	18.2%	60%
18	MIA	24-33	6.2	3	4	24	1	8	0	13.3%	58%

Production

Receptions	55
Targets	70
Receiving yards	800
Carries	12
Rushing yards	125
Touchdowns	6
Points per game	10.62
Yards per target	11.43
Catch rate	78.57%
Yards per carry	10.42

Role

Snap share	51.53%
Target share	12.98%
Air-yards share	12.74%
WOPR	0.284
RACR	1.731

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8.5
Yards after catch per reception	7
Yards before catch per reception	7.5
Total YAC	385
Broken tackles	5
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	132.1
Receiving EPA per game	2.49
Rushing EPA per game	0.56

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	9
Red-zone target share	11%
End-zone target share	10.3%
Red-zone carry share	2%
Expected receiving TDs	2.61
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	0.39
Expected rushing TDs	0.1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 535 times. He took 13.36% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Jakobi Meyers	24.05%
Hunter Henry	14.31%
Kendrick Bourne ←	13.36%
Nelson Agholor	12.21%
Brandon Bolden	9.35%
Jonnu Smith	8.59%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 53.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 13.89 in those and 6.82 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · SF · 15 games

His best game was Week 15 against DAL — 18.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 9.8% target share, in a game that finished 33-41. His worst was Week 7 against NE at 0, on 1 targets, final score 33-6. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.4; in the 7 decided by more, 8.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8.9 points per game. He scored 8.65, 2.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 3.21 expected, a gap of -2.2.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	ARI	20-24	5.4	2	5	34	0	15.6%	92%
2	NYJ	31-13	10.7	4	5	67	0	18.5%	74%
3	NYG	36-9	10.3	4	6	63	0	17.1%	81%
4	PHI	20-25	6.3	3	6	33	0	14.6%	68%
5	MIA	17-43	11	2	4	30	1	11.4%	66%
6	LA	24-16	6.4	2	3	44	0	9.4%	56%
7	NE	33-6	0	0	1	0	0	4%	45%
8	SEA	27-37	16.1	8	10	81	0	25%	86%
10	NO	13-27	6.6	4	5	26	0	12.8%	58%
12	LA	23-20	6.4	3	5	34	0	14.7%	57%
13	BUF	24-34	7.5	4	6	35	0	15.4%	49%
14	WAS	15-23	9.2	3	7	42	0	15.9%	89%
15	DAL	33-41	18.6	4	4	86	1	9.8%	50%
16	ARI	20-12	2.6	1	1	16	0	4.8%	34%
17	SEA	23-26	12.6	5	6	76	0	17.1%	82%

Production

Receptions	49
Targets	74
Receiving yards	667
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	8.65
Yards per target	9.01
Catch rate	66.22%

Role

Snap share	65.8%
Target share	13.74%
Air-yards share	20.07%
WOPR	0.347
RACR	0.988

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9.3
Yards after catch per reception	4.5
Yards before catch per reception	9.1
Total YAC	219
Broken tackles	3
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	92.6
Receiving EPA per game	2.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	11
Red-zone target share	13.6%
End-zone target share	15.8%
Expected receiving TDs	3.21
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-2.21

Who else ate

The offense threw it 570 times. He took 14.1% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brandon Aiyuk	18.29%
Kendrick Bourne ←	14.1%
George Kittle	12%
Jordan Reed	8.76%
Jerick McKinnon	8.76%
Deebo Samuel	8.38%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Nick Mullens	8	49	10.13	8.16	15.66%
Jimmy Garoppolo	4	14	5.63	10.36	11.88%
C.J. Beathard	3	11	8.73	11.09	11.1%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 24.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8 in those and 8.44 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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