Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.28 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 0.2.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 438 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB64 |
Our board has him at 7.8 points, 0.5 per game — 14 rushing yards, 0.1 rushing TDs, 3 catches. That is RB6, 332 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.4 points per game to a ceiling of 1.4, with the median at 0.5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 29%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 332. We rank him 162 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| D'Andre Swift | 55.6% |
| Kyle Monangai | 32.9% |
| Brittain Brown | 6.7% |
| Roschon Johnson ← | 4.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 4.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 1.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 19 |
| Last season, carries per game | 0.3 |
That is an increase of 0.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -1.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | D'Onta Foreman | +13.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -39.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kene Nwangwu | 2023 | 0.2 | 80% | -43.3% |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2022 | 0.6 | 78% | -24.1% |
| Kene Nwangwu | 2022 | 0.8 | 77% | -25.2% |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2024 | 0.5 | 76% | -25% |
| Hassan Haskins | 2024 | 2.7 | 72% | +27.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 4, pick 115 by CHI |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 219 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.58s |
| Vertical | 31.5″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| Career PPR per game | 4.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.9 |
| Boom rate | 16% |
| Bust rate | 44% |
| Games missed per season | 2.3 |
| Injury history | Concussion, Back, Thumb |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against NO — 1.1 PPR on 1 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 26-14. His worst was Week 11 against MIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 19-17. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.2; in the 3 decided by more, 0.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 0.2 points per game. He scored 0.28, 30.8% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 17 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.28 |
| Yards per carry | 8.5 |
| Snap share | 1% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.23 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
2 of his 6 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 0.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against CAR — 14.5 PPR on 10 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 36-10. His worst was Week 13 against DET at 0, on 0 touches, final score 20-23. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 5 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.6 points per game. He scored 5.95, 16.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | IND | 16-21 | 10.2 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 8 | 30 | 0 | 10.4% | 37% |
| 4 | LA | 24-18 | 8.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0% | 37% |
| 5 | CAR | 36-10 | 14.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 0% | 31% |
| 6 | JAX | 35-16 | 5.3 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 11.5% | 27% |
| 8 | WAS | 15-18 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 27% |
| 9 | ARI | 9-29 | 4.1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 8.3% | 38% |
| 10 | NE | 3-19 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 7.7% | 33% |
| 11 | GB | 19-20 | 11.1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 1 | 3.2% | 42% |
| 12 | MIN | 27-30 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2.1% | 38% |
| 13 | DET | 20-23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 16 | DET | 17-34 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 17 | SEA | 3-6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 33% |
| 18 | GB | 24-22 | 6.9 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 20.8% | 21% |
| Receptions | 16 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 104 |
| Carries | 55 |
| Rushing yards | 150 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 5.95 |
| Yards per target | 5.2 |
| Catch rate | 80% |
| Yards per carry | 2.73 |
| Snap share | 30.31% |
| Target share | 4.92% |
| Air-yards share | -0.25% |
| WOPR | 0.072 |
| RACR | -0.012 |
| Average depth of target | 0.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.5 |
| Total YAC | 96 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.51 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.34 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.9% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 24.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 39.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.28 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.28 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.1 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 3.8% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 26.62% |
| Keenan Allen | 23% |
| Rome Odunze | 19.2% |
| Cole Kmet | 10.46% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.89% |
| Roschon Johnson ← | 3.8% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 31.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.05 in those and 6.51 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against GB — 17.5 PPR on 12 touches and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 20-38. His worst was Week 14 against DET at 0.6, on 1 touches, final score 28-13. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 8 decided by more, 7.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.2 points per game. He scored 6.81, 5.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 20-38 | 17.5 | 6 | 7 | 35 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 19.4% | 39% |
| 2 | TB | 17-27 | 6.2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.1% | 42% |
| 3 | KC | 10-41 | 6.9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 10% | 45% |
| 4 | DEN | 28-31 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 3.1% | 22% |
| 5 | WAS | 40-20 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 8 | LAC | 13-30 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 0 | 10.8% | 36% |
| 9 | NO | 17-24 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3.8% | 29% |
| 10 | CAR | 16-13 | 7.2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 18.8% | 42% |
| 11 | DET | 26-31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0% | 33% |
| 12 | MIN | 12-10 | 12.5 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 10 | 35 | 0 | 15.6% | 74% |
| 14 | DET | 28-13 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 15 | CLE | 17-20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 17.1% | 49% |
| 16 | ARI | 27-16 | 8.3 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 13% | 46% |
| 17 | ATL | 37-17 | 14.9 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 10% | 49% |
| 18 | GB | 9-17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 50% |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Targets | 40 |
| Receiving yards | 209 |
| Carries | 81 |
| Rushing yards | 352 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 6.81 |
| Yards per target | 5.22 |
| Catch rate | 85% |
| Yards per carry | 4.35 |
| Snap share | 39.53% |
| Target share | 8.58% |
| Air-yards share | -0.89% |
| WOPR | 0.124 |
| RACR | -2.657 |
| Average depth of target | -0.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.1 |
| Total YAC | 247 |
| Broken tackles | 6 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 88.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.4 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 14.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 25% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.88 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 8.49% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 28.87% |
| Cole Kmet | 19.11% |
| Darnell Mooney | 12.95% |
| Roschon Johnson ← | 8.49% |
| Tyler Scott | 6.79% |
| Khalil Herbert | 6.58% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 29 | 7.19 | 6.07 | 7.94% |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 11 | 5.27 | 3 | 11.13% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 46.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.46 in those and 5.67 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
Ask the Coach about Roschon Johnson →