Cole Kmet — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.92 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.7, usage worth 5.3.

27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

ESPN	169.7
UNDERDOG	215.9
FFA	244

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	TE28

The offense he plays in, 2026

Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.

In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).

The projected target split across the offense:

Rome Odunze	18.5%
Colston Loveland	16.8%
Luther Burden III	10.8%
D'Andre Swift	9.4%
Zavion Thomas	8.9%
Sam Roush	7.9%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.

Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-3.3 · harder
Weeks 1–6	-8 · harder
Weeks 12–17	+1.4 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-4.5 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +12.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Noah Fant	2024	7.4	65%	-10.7%
Dawson Knox	2024	4.2	61%	+13.1%
Mike Gesicki	2023	4.4	59%	+118.3%
Mike Gesicki	2024	8.8	56%	-15.8%
Noah Fant	2023	4.9	54%	+1.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2020, round 2, pick 43 by CHI
College	Notre Dame
Age at draft	21
Height	6′6″
Weight	262 lb
40-yard dash	4.7s
Vertical	37″
Broad jump	123″
3-cone	7.44s
Shuttle	4.41s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	7.8
Week-to-week variation	0.8
Boom rate	16.5%
Bust rate	27.8%
Games missed per season	0.2
Injury history	Back
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	-0.03

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · CHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 13 against PHI — 12.6 PPR on 3 targets and a 9.4% target share, in a game that finished 24-15. His worst was Week 6 against WAS at 1, on 2 targets, final score 25-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 5 decided by more, 6.6. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 4.92, 5.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	MIN	24-27	4.1	1	4	31	0	11.8%	90%
2	DET	21-52	4.9	2	2	29	0	6.1%	90%
3	DAL	31-14	8	1	1	10	1	3.6%	93%
4	LV	25-24	7.6	3	9	46	0	25%	100%
6	WAS	25-24	1	1	2	0	0	6.9%	52%
7	NO	26-14	2.6	1	1	16	0	4%	41%
9	CIN	47-42	2	1	2	10	0	5.9%	26%
10	NYG	24-20	1.5	1	2	5	0	5.6%	66%
11	MIN	19-17	9.5	5	5	45	0	17.9%	79%
12	PIT	31-28	1.3	1	1	3	0	3.3%	63%
13	PHI	24-15	12.6	3	3	36	1	9.4%	67%
14	GB	21-28	6.2	2	3	42	0	10.7%	76%
15	CLE	31-3	4.8	2	4	28	0	14.8%	73%
16	GB	22-16	3.4	2	3	14	0	10.3%	77%
17	SF	38-42	3.6	2	3	16	0	7.7%	61%
18	DET	16-19	5.6	2	3	16	0	10.3%	89%

Production

Receptions	30
Targets	48
Receiving yards	347
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.92
Yards per target	7.23
Catch rate	62.5%

Role

Snap share	71.44%
Target share	9.58%
Air-yards share	9.63%
WOPR	0.21
RACR	0.902

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8.8
Yards after catch per reception	5
Yards before catch per reception	6.6
Total YAC	149
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	89.5
Receiving EPA per game	0.84

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	10%
End-zone target share	11.4%
Expected receiving TDs	1.62
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	0.38

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Rome Odunze	16.98%
D.J. Moore	16.04%
Colston Loveland	15.47%
Olamide Zaccheaus	12.26%
Luther Burden III	11.32%
D'Andre Swift	9.06%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 16 games were blowouts, 22.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.9 in those and 4.16 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · CHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 3 against IND — 25.7 PPR on 11 targets and a 22.9% target share, in a game that finished 16-21. His worst was Week 17 against SEA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 3-6. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 6 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 7.53, 23.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	TEN	24-17	1.4	1	1	4	0	3.4%	48%
2	HOU	13-19	6.7	4	5	27	0	14.7%	77%
3	IND	16-21	25.7	10	11	97	1	22.9%	81%
4	LA	24-18	6.4	3	3	34	0	13.6%	90%
5	CAR	36-10	8.7	3	4	57	0	14.3%	84%
6	JAX	35-16	24	5	5	70	2	19.2%	86%
8	WAS	15-18	4.4	1	1	14	0	4.8%	78%
10	NE	3-19	3.3	2	4	13	0	15.4%	93%
11	GB	19-20	7.2	3	3	42	0	9.7%	97%
12	MIN	27-30	13.4	7	10	64	0	21.3%	100%
13	DET	20-23	5.6	3	3	26	0	8.3%	99%
14	SF	13-38	0	0	0	0	0	0%	92%
15	MIN	12-30	2.4	1	1	14	0	3.2%	93%
16	DET	17-34	8.9	2	2	9	1	5.4%	89%
17	SEA	3-6	0	0	0	0	0	0%	93%
18	GB	24-22	2.3	2	2	3	0	8.3%	98%

Production

Receptions	47
Targets	55
Receiving yards	474
Touchdowns	4
Points per game	7.53
Yards per target	8.62
Catch rate	85.45%

Role

Snap share	87.38%
Target share	10.28%
Air-yards share	9.26%
WOPR	0.221
RACR	1.126

Efficiency

Average depth of target	7.1
Yards after catch per reception	3.9
Yards before catch per reception	6.2
Total YAC	181
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	119.2
Receiving EPA per game	1.63

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	11.8%
End-zone target share	6.1%
Expected receiving TDs	2.34
Actual receiving TDs	3
Receiving TD luck	0.66

Who else ate

The offense threw it 566 times. He took 10.46% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore	26.62%
Keenan Allen	23%
Rome Odunze	19.2%
Cole Kmet ←	10.46%
D'Andre Swift	9.89%
Roschon Johnson	3.8%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 36.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.8 in those and 7.31 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · CHI · 16 games

His best game was Week 4 against DEN — 27.6 PPR on 9 targets and a 28.1% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 7 against LV at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-12. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.5; in the 8 decided by more, 10.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 10.4 points per game. He scored 11.32, 16.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 5 against 3.79 expected, a gap of 1.2.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	GB	20-38	9.4	5	7	44	0	19.4%	97%
2	TB	17-27	7.8	4	6	38	0	21.4%	68%
3	KC	10-41	4.2	2	2	22	0	10%	76%
4	DEN	28-31	27.6	7	9	85	2	28.1%	74%
5	WAS	40-20	15.2	5	5	42	1	20%	83%
6	MIN	13-19	2.9	2	3	9	0	12.5%	95%
7	LV	30-12	0	0	0	0	0	0%	89%
8	LAC	13-30	17.9	10	10	79	0	27%	83%
9	NO	17-24	23.5	6	8	55	2	30.8%	85%
10	CAR	16-13	9.6	5	7	45	0	21.9%	92%
11	DET	26-31	5	3	4	20	0	18.2%	79%
12	MIN	12-10	11.3	7	7	43	0	21.9%	88%
14	DET	28-13	11.6	5	6	66	0	20%	85%
15	CLE	17-20	13.3	5	7	23	1	20%	86%
16	ARI	27-16	14.7	4	5	107	0	21.7%	43%
18	GB	9-17	7.1	3	4	41	0	25%	69%

Production

Receptions	73
Targets	90
Receiving yards	719
Carries	3
Rushing yards	2
Touchdowns	6
Points per game	11.32
Yards per target	7.99
Catch rate	81.11%
Yards per carry	0.67

Role

Snap share	80.75%
Target share	19.87%
Air-yards share	16.07%
WOPR	0.41
RACR	1.471

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.2
Yards after catch per reception	4
Yards before catch per reception	5.9
Total YAC	290
Broken tackles	4
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	112.9
Receiving EPA per game	2.03
Rushing EPA per game	0.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	15
Red-zone target share	25%
End-zone target share	24.1%
Red-zone carry share	1.4%
Goal-line carry share	4.2%
Expected receiving TDs	3.79
Actual receiving TDs	5
Receiving TD luck	1.21
Expected rushing TDs	0.43

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game	7 of 14
Yards per target	3 of 14
Target share	6 of 14
Air-yards share	7 of 14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 513 times. He took 19.11% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

D.J. Moore	28.87%
Cole Kmet ←	19.11%
Darnell Mooney	12.95%
Roschon Johnson	8.49%
Tyler Scott	6.79%
Khalil Herbert	6.58%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Justin Fields	11	62	11.56	8.56	20.52%
Tyson Bagent	5	28	10.78	6.71	18.44%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 25.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.34 in those and 12.54 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · CHI · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against DET — 23.4 PPR on 7 targets and a 38.9% target share, in a game that finished 30-31. His worst was Week 2 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 10-27. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10; in the 9 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.1 points per game. He scored 8.66, 21.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 2.44 expected, a gap of 3.6.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	SF	19-10	0	0	1	0	0	5.9%	83%
2	GB	10-27	0	0	1	0	0	9.1%	85%
3	HOU	23-20	6	2	3	40	0	18.8%	92%
4	NYG	12-20	4.6	3	3	16	0	15%	98%
5	MIN	22-29	8.5	4	4	45	0	19%	90%
6	WAS	7-12	2.5	1	3	15	0	11.5%	93%
7	NE	33-14	5.2	2	3	32	0	14.3%	96%
8	DAL	29-49	9.1	2	2	11	1	8.7%	95%
9	MIA	32-35	22	5	6	41	2	22.2%	97%
10	DET	30-31	23.4	4	7	74	2	38.9%	93%
11	ATL	24-27	6.5	3	4	35	0	21.1%	91%
12	NYJ	10-31	5.7	3	6	27	0	25%	100%
13	GB	19-28	13.2	6	7	72	0	28%	100%
15	PHI	20-25	6.5	4	5	25	0	23.8%	100%
16	BUF	13-35	7.7	5	6	27	0	24%	95%
17	DET	10-41	10.7	2	3	27	1	16.7%	88%
18	MIN	13-29	15.7	4	5	57	1	18.5%	94%

Production

Receptions	50
Targets	69
Receiving yards	544
Carries	2
Rushing yards	9
Touchdowns	7
Points per game	8.66
Yards per target	7.88
Catch rate	72.46%
Yards per carry	4.5

Role

Snap share	93.53%
Target share	18.85%
Air-yards share	13.81%
WOPR	0.379
RACR	1.12

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.7
Yards after catch per reception	5.7
Yards before catch per reception	5.2
Total YAC	286
Broken tackles	3
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	105
Receiving EPA per game	0.66
Rushing EPA per game	0.07

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	10
Red-zone target share	23.8%
End-zone target share	21.4%
Expected receiving TDs	2.44
Actual receiving TDs	6
Receiving TD luck	3.56

Who else ate

The offense threw it 377 times. He took 19.27% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Cole Kmet ←	19.27%
Darnell Mooney	17.04%
Dante Pettis	11.45%
David Montgomery	11.17%
Equanimeous St. Brown	10.61%
Chase Claypool	8.1%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Justin Fields	15	58	8.39	7.93	18.47%
Trevor Siemian	1	6	5.7	4.5	25%
Nathan Peterman	1	5	15.7	11.4	18.5%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 26.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.4 in those and 10 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · CHI · 17 games

His best game was Week 9 against PIT — 14.7 PPR on 8 targets and a 27.6% target share, in a game that finished 27-29. His worst was Week 2 against CIN at 1, on 1 targets, final score 20-17. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 9.1; in the 11 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.5 points per game. He scored 7.13, 25.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 2.75 expected, a gap of -2.7.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	LA	14-34	9.2	5	7	42	0	17.5%	74%
2	CIN	20-17	1	1	1	0	0	4.3%	72%
3	CLE	6-26	2.1	1	4	11	0	20%	96%
4	DET	24-14	1.6	1	3	6	0	17.6%	98%
5	LV	20-9	4.2	2	4	22	0	20%	80%
6	GB	14-24	8.9	4	5	49	0	20%	79%
7	TB	3-38	9.3	5	6	43	0	19.4%	89%
8	SF	22-33	5.4	3	6	24	0	22.2%	90%
9	PIT	27-29	14.7	6	8	87	0	27.6%	77%
11	BAL	13-16	2.2	1	2	12	0	6.1%	90%
12	DET	16-14	14.5	8	11	65	0	29.7%	86%
13	ARI	22-33	7.1	3	7	41	0	17.5%	72%
14	GB	30-45	4.7	3	5	17	0	15.6%	74%
15	MIN	9-17	13.1	6	9	71	0	25%	95%
16	SEA	25-24	8.9	4	5	49	0	14.3%	96%
17	NYG	29-3	5.5	3	5	25	0	15.2%	80%
18	MIN	17-31	8.8	4	5	48	0	10.9%	74%

Production

Receptions	60
Targets	93
Receiving yards	612
Carries	1
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	7.13
Yards per target	6.58
Catch rate	64.52%

Role

Snap share	83.65%
Target share	17.82%
Air-yards share	16.51%
WOPR	0.383
RACR	0.89

Efficiency

Average depth of target	7.8
Yards after catch per reception	4.1
Yards before catch per reception	6.1
Total YAC	246
Broken tackles	4
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	74.3
Receiving EPA per game	-0.35
Rushing EPA per game	-0.01

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	14
Red-zone target share	22.2%
End-zone target share	23.1%
Red-zone carry share	1.2%
Goal-line carry share	4.2%
Expected receiving TDs	2.75
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-2.75
Expected rushing TDs	0.43

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:

Points per game	15 of 15
Yards per target	15 of 15
Target share	10 of 15
Air-yards share	10 of 15

Who else ate

The offense threw it 542 times. He took 17.75% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Darnell Mooney	26.72%
Cole Kmet ←	17.75%
Allen Robinson	12.6%
David Montgomery	9.73%
Marquise Goodwin	7.63%
Damiere Byrd	7.25%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Justin Fields	10	51	6.5	6.47	19.17%
Andy Dalton	6	37	7.88	6.3	16.15%
Nick Foles	1	5	8.9	9.8	14.3%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 21.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.53 in those and 9.07 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · CHI · 15 games

His best game was Week 13 against DET — 14.7 PPR on 7 targets and a 21.2% target share, in a game that finished 30-34. His worst was Week 5 against TB at 0, on 0 targets, final score 20-19. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.3; in the 5 decided by more, 5.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.1 points per game. He scored 4.13, 21.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DET	27-23	0	0	1	0	0	2.8%	31%
2	NYG	17-13	2.2	1	1	12	0	3.6%	34%
3	ATL	30-26	0	0	0	0	0	0%	32%
4	IND	11-19	0	0	1	0	0	2.4%	24%
5	TB	20-19	0	0	0	0	0	0%	33%
6	CAR	23-16	10	2	2	20	1	5.6%	35%
7	LA	10-24	6.5	2	2	45	0	5.3%	32%
8	NO	23-26	1.2	1	1	2	0	2.4%	43%
10	MIN	13-19	1.7	1	3	7	0	10.3%	70%
12	GB	25-41	1.8	1	3	8	0	6.8%	79%
13	DET	30-34	14.7	5	7	37	1	21.2%	78%
14	HOU	36-7	8.1	4	7	41	0	21.2%	85%
15	MIN	33-27	3.2	2	2	12	0	9.5%	100%
16	JAX	41-17	3.5	2	6	18	0	16.7%	90%
17	GB	16-35	9.1	7	8	41	0	19.5%	89%

Production

Receptions	28
Targets	44
Receiving yards	243
Carries	1
Rushing yards	-3
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.13
Yards per target	5.52
Catch rate	63.64%
Yards per carry	-3

Role

Snap share	57%
Target share	8.49%
Air-yards share	7.12%
WOPR	0.178
RACR	1.015

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.5
Yards after catch per reception	4.9
Yards before catch per reception	3.8
Total YAC	136
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	83.8
Receiving EPA per game	-0.05
Rushing EPA per game	-0.07

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	7
Red-zone target share	7.6%
End-zone target share	2.6%
Red-zone carry share	1.4%
Goal-line carry share	4.8%
Expected receiving TDs	2.18
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.18
Expected rushing TDs	0.44

Who else ate

The offense threw it 614 times. He took 7.39% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Allen Robinson	25.38%
Darnell Mooney	16.47%
Jimmy Graham	12.77%
Anthony Miller	12.77%
David Montgomery	11.43%
Cole Kmet ←	7.39%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Mitchell Trubisky	8	35	5.33	4.83	12.66%
Nick Foles	7	9	2.77	8.22	3.71%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 33.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.9 in those and 3.3 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Cole Kmet →