Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 8.63 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 107, usage worth 9.4.
24 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 94.6 |
| ESPN | 133.4 |
| YAHOO | 97.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 98.3 |
| CBS | 102.2 |
| FFA | 86 |
| Goes around | Round 9, pick 11 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB34 |
| Bye week | 10 |
| ADP standard deviation | 17.9 picks |
Our board has him at 157.3 points, 9.8 per game — 777 rushing yards, 5.9 rushing TDs, 19.2 catches. That is RB4, 87 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 5.9 points per game to a ceiling of 18.7, with the median at 9.8. Boom rate 91%, bust rate 39%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 107 on consensus and our board has him 87. We rank him 20 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
Cheap round-8 Bears exposure with a possible Montgomery-light goal-line role; ~11 touches/game as a rookie. Big contingent upside if Swift gets hurt. The tough Bears schedule is a real drag on RB game scripts.
like · medium conviction · 2026-06-05Chicago Bears returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Caleb Williams at quarterback, Ben Johnson as head coach, Press Taylor calling it. The offense projects to 33.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.4 rushes.
In: Kalif Raymond (wr3), Zavion Thomas (wr5), JP Richardson (wr6), Alexander Maurice (wr7), Sam Roush (te2). Out: DJ Moore (wr2), Luther Burden (wr3), Olamide Zaccheaus (wr4), Travis Homer (rb3), Cole Kmet (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| D'Andre Swift | 55.6% |
| Kyle Monangai ← | 32.9% |
| Brittain Brown | 6.7% |
| Roschon Johnson | 4.9% |
What the offense looks like: Whoever emerges as Caleb Williams primary target will be an ELITE fantasy asset to own. We still do not know with 100% certainy who that will be. You may think it would be Rome Odunze, but Luther Burden III has shown a TON of promise. There is room for both of these young WR to eat, but Colston Loveland may be the real beneficiary of the additional targets. he looks like a true star. RB room is likely a 1A/1B for the foreseable future. Both Swift and Monangai see their value skyrocket if the other gets hurt.
Key additions: Bears added WR Kalif Raymond from Lions (expected to operate as WR3 because Ben Johnson loves him). Drafted Rookie WR Zavion Thomas 3rd round. Drafted TE Sam Roush RD 3.
Key departures: Biggest 2 losses C Drew Dalman retired unexpectedly & LT Ozzy Trapilo suffered serious knee injury sidelining him the entire 2026 season. WR DJ Moore traded to Bills for a 2nd round pick. WR Olamide Zaccheaus also left Chicago this offseason. Opening up a massive target opportunity for Bears pass catchers.
Notes: Strong disagreement who the WR1 will be in 2026. Odunze looked fantastic early in 2025, but Burden stole the show in the back half of the season. Loveland has emerged as Williams favorite target. Caleb Williams is set to have an excellent season again. RB room looks to remain the same with Swift 1A & Monangai 1B. Bears drafted TE Sam Roush in the 3rd round. Cole Kmet may be traded. Highly relevant fantasty offense.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Caleb Williams returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.7 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.6 att/g; New OC Press Taylor — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 32.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 7.6 |
| Projected carries, full season | 130 |
| Last season, carries per game | 10 |
That is a reduction of 2.4 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.4 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: CHI rates 24.9 against a league average of 23, 1.9 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -1.9 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.3 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -3.4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -1.7 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Kyle Monangai study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +62.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 2022 | 7.9 | 69% | +48.7% |
| Khalil Herbert | 2022 | 9.1 | 67% | +4% |
| Eno Benjamin | 2022 | 6.9 | 58% | -34.4% |
| Khalil Herbert | 2021 | 4.9 | 55% | +47.5% |
| Khalil Herbert | 2023 | 9.4 | 54% | -24.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 7, pick 233 by CHI |
| College | Rutgers |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 211 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.6s |
| Vertical | 34.5″ |
| Broad jump | 117″ |
His best game was Week 9 against CIN — 22.8 PPR on 31 touches and a 14.7% target share, in a game that finished 47-42. His worst was Week 4 against LV at 1.8, on 4 touches, final score 25-24. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.8; in the 6 decided by more, 8.3. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.4 points per game. He scored 8.63, 8.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 24-27 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 13% |
| 2 | DET | 21-52 | 4.6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 9.1% | 41% |
| 3 | DAL | 31-14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 | 3.6% | 29% |
| 4 | LV | 25-24 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0% | 28% |
| 6 | WAS | 25-24 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 3.4% | 34% |
| 7 | NO | 26-14 | 17.4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 81 | 1 | 12% | 45% |
| 8 | BAL | 16-30 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 9 | CIN | 47-42 | 22.8 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 176 | 0 | 14.7% | 74% |
| 10 | NYG | 24-20 | 8.8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 2.8% | 38% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 10.7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 23 | 1 | 3.6% | 37% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 54% |
| 13 | PHI | 24-15 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 130 | 1 | 3.1% | 45% |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 8.7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 7.1% | 41% |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 3.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 7.4% | 42% |
| 16 | GB | 22-16 | 12.3 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 13.8% | 45% |
| 17 | SF | 38-42 | 7.7 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 10.3% | 41% |
| 18 | DET | 16-19 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 3.4% | 42% |
| Receptions | 18 |
| Targets | 30 |
| Receiving yards | 164 |
| Carries | 169 |
| Rushing yards | 783 |
| Touchdowns | 5 |
| Points per game | 8.63 |
| Yards per target | 5.47 |
| Catch rate | 60% |
| Yards per carry | 4.63 |
| Snap share | 40.88% |
| Target share | 5.72% |
| Air-yards share | -0.01% |
| WOPR | 0.085 |
| RACR | 0.074 |
| Average depth of target | -0.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 162 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 61 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.43 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.22 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 36.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 34.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.88 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.88 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.25 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 37 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 33 of 49 |
| Target share | 35 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 20 of 49 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 7.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.63 in those and 8.82 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Kyle Monangai →