Zavion Thomas
Overview
Board Oct 12Week 5 rest-of-season review, Oct 12, 2026. The three reads are where our backtested model, the betting market and his 2026 production each place him at WR; our board rank is the call.
Where his stats say he could finish from here: WR98 to WR107. Our rank stays the call.
2026 so far4 games
80% range 1.1–3.4 half-PPR points a game. Biggest inputs: final college season +0.8, college production -0.8, sportsbook-implied points Wks 1-4 -0.4, Week 5 sportsbook lines -0.4. The model informs the rank; it does not set it.
Week 6
Lines Oct 14CHI
ATLUpdated Oct 14, 2026, built on a CHI team total of 26.25. Rank is among every WR we project this week.
Allowed to WRs per game across 5 games. Best games against them: Christian Watson (W3, 22.6 PPR, 7/10 96 yds); Matthew Golden (W3, 21 PPR, 5/12 100 yds); Chris Olave (W4, 19.6 PPR, 8/12 116 yds).
EPA ranks entering Week 6: #17 against the pass, #10 against the run (1 = best defense).
Big number: receiving fantasy points ATL allows a game to WRs in that zone. # = its rank of 32. Depth is air yards at the catch point; 5 games, through Week 5. Tap a zone for the detail.
1-11 rush, 1-11 rec on 1 tgt
Game log
2026 · through W5Every gametap a game for the detail
Projected 0.6 (WR138) · CHI -4.5 (closing) · total 46.5 · 68°F, wind 8 mph · 7 days rest · division game
Projected 0.5 (WR143) · CHI +3.5 (closing) · total 42.5 · 64°F, wind 3 mph · 8 days rest · prime time
Projected 0.5 (WR140) · CHI -3.5 (closing) · total 43.5 · 72°F, wind 3 mph · 6 days rest
Projected 1.1 (WR115) · CHI -1.5 (closing) · total 46.5 · 7 days rest · division game
D# = the opponent's rank against WRs entering that week (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest). Finish = his rank at WR that week.
Usage
What changedlast 3 full games vs. before
| W2 | W3, W4, W5 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 3.0% | 14.3% | +11.3 |
| Target share | 0.0% | 1.8% | +1.8 |
| Air-yard share | 0.0% | -62.6% | −62.6 |
| Targets a game | 0.0 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
Games he left injured are left out of both sides.
CHI target treeshare of team targets, 2026
Season to date, games each player played.
Team
CHIChicago Bears offense, 2026 through Week 5. Rank 1 = most. Scheme rates from FTN charting through Week 5.
Game by gamescore, implied total, pass rate (over expected), QB
| Week | Score | Implied | Pass rate | QB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1vs CAR | 59-37 | 25.3 | 44%−11.5 | Williams29 att |
| W2vs MIN | 3-9 | 25.5 | 55%−14.5 | Williams26 att |
| W3vs PHI | 27-7 | 19.5 | 51%+4.2 | Keenum34 att |
| W4vs NYJ | 23-12 | 23.5 | 41%−9.2 | Bagent34 att |
| W5vs GB | 7-31 | 24.0 | 65%−2.4 | Bagent21 att |
Depth chartWR, Oct 14
Scheduleeach defense's current rank vs WRs
Green = soft, red = stingy (1 = stingiest, 32 = softest), ranked on fantasy points allowed to WRs so far. Gold underline = fantasy playoffs. Does strength of schedule matter? ›
Head coach: Ben Johnson. QB: Tyson Bagent (most pass attempts, Week 5).
Career
Season by season
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Pts/g | xFP/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026CHI | 4 | 2-12-02 tgt, 1.4% share | 0.8WR143 | — |
Under points a game: his rank at WR in points a game (8+ games; 2026: 2+ games). xFP = expected PPR a game from his usage; under it, the season's points over expected. Routes = share of team dropbacks he ran a route (through 2025).
Health
No injury designation. Not on the Sleeper injury list as of Oct 10 and not on the Week 6 practice report so far.
2026 injury reportofficial, week by week
✓ = not listed. Letters = game status (Q, D, O) or worst practice that week (LP limited, DNP did not practice). Tap a week for the detail.
Teammates on the report
Our current notes first, then Sleeper designations. What happens when a starter is ruled out? ›
Value
Market Oct 10Market value on a 0–10,000 scale, through Oct 10, 2026. Faint stretches are estimates between real readings. Gold = peak.
Teal dot = today (2,392). Box = the middle half of outcomes, white line = the median, whiskers = 10th to 90th percentile. WRs about 23 valued near #249 overall: real 1-year moves since 2022, weighted by exact age and market rank (about 117 players' worth).
169.9 overall, WR86. ESPN 169.9 · Underdog 215.7
Profile
Athletic profilepercentile vs WRs at the combine since 2010
College production
| Year | G | Rec-Yds-TD | Yds share | Dominator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025LSU | 12 | 40-473-4 | 17.4% | 20.5 |
| 2024LSU | 12 | 20-188-2 | 5.0% | 6.4 |
| 2023Mississippi State | 11 | 40-503-1 | 25.7% | 16.7 |
| 2022Mississippi State | 9 | 2-4-0 | 0.1% | 0.1 |
Share = his share of his team's receiving yards. Dominator = average of his share of receiving yards and TDs.