Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.19 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 289, usage worth 4.
25 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 289
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 168.3, 238 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER
408
ESPN
170
FFA
579
Draft-room facts
Goes around
Round 25, pick 1 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank
TE97
ADP standard deviation
168.3 picks
2026 schedule
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
Full season
-0.6 · neutral
Weeks 1–6
-5.3 · harder
Weeks 12–17
+2.8 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)
+8.6 · easier
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Dynasty context not redraft
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle
His dynasty value has moved +41.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
Player
Season
Their PPG
Similarity
Next year
Noah Gray
2023
4.4
81%
+53.3%
Noah Gray
2022
4.1
79%
+26.7%
Brock Wright
2022
4.5
75%
-34.4%
Mo Alie-Cox
2022
3.9
74%
-20.8%
Brock Wright
2024
3.2
73%
+40.9%
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
Four years of dynasty value
Monthly superflex value, 2023-03 to 2026-07. From 0 to 1,260, peaking at 1,260.
The player
Draft capital and athletic profile
Drafted
2023, round 5, pick 175 by LAR
College
Clemson
Age at draft
22
Height
6′6″
Weight
245 lb
40-yard dash
4.84s
Vertical
38.5″
Broad jump
125″
Availability and volatility
Career PPR per game
3.1
Week-to-week variation
0.9
Boom rate
0%
Bust rate
55%
Games missed per season
0.7
Injury history
Back
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
The record, season by season
2025 · LA · 15 games
His best game was Week 10 against SF — 8.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.9% target share, in a game that finished 42-26. His worst was Week 18 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 37-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.8; in the 8 decided by more, 4.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 4.19, 4.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
HOU
14-9
8.3
1
2
13
1
7.1%
37%
2
TEN
33-19
7.8
1
1
8
1
3.1%
41%
3
PHI
26-33
1.3
1
1
3
0
3%
38%
4
IND
27-20
1
1
1
0
0
2.5%
29%
5
SF
23-26
4.4
2
2
24
0
4.3%
60%
6
BAL
17-3
1.7
1
2
7
0
7.7%
40%
7
JAX
35-7
1.4
1
1
4
0
3%
51%
9
NO
34-10
6.7
3
4
37
0
12.9%
59%
10
SF
42-26
8.8
2
2
8
1
5.9%
51%
12
TB
34-7
5.9
3
4
29
0
11.8%
50%
13
CAR
28-31
1.4
1
1
4
0
3.7%
38%
14
ARI
45-17
4.1
2
2
21
0
6.5%
71%
15
DET
41-34
4.6
3
4
16
0
10.5%
75%
16
SEA
37-38
5.4
2
5
34
0
10.4%
65%
18
ARI
37-20
0
0
1
0
0
2.7%
71%
Production
Receptions
24
Targets
33
Receiving yards
208
Touchdowns
3
Points per game
4.19
Yards per target
6.3
Catch rate
72.73%
Role
Snap share
51.73%
Target share
6.34%
Air-yards share
2.73%
WOPR
0.116
RACR
2.597
Efficiency
Average depth of target
3.9
Yards after catch per reception
5.7
Yards before catch per reception
3
Total YAC
137
Broken tackles
2
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
119.3
Receiving EPA per game
0.36
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
7
Red-zone target share
5.6%
End-zone target share
5.6%
Expected receiving TDs
2.25
Actual receiving TDs
3
Receiving TD luck
0.75
Who else ate
The offense threw it 597 times. He took 5.68% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
28.57%
Davante Adams
19.62%
Colby Parkinson
9.64%
Kyren Williams
8.61%
Tyler Higbee
6.2%
Davis Allen ←
5.68%
Blowouts against close games
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 28.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.62 in those and 3.77 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2024 · LA · 7 games
His best game was Week 10 against MIA — 8.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 13.6% target share, in a game that finished 15-23. His worst was Week 17 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-9. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 3.8 points per game. He scored 1.41, 31.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
DET
20-26
0
0
1
0
0
2.1%
8%
5
GB
19-24
0
0
1
0
0
2.2%
4%
9
SEA
26-20
1.5
1
3
5
0
7.1%
55%
10
MIA
15-23
8.4
5
6
34
0
13.6%
80%
12
PHI
20-37
0
0
1
0
0
2.9%
48%
15
SF
12-6
0
0
0
0
0
0%
23%
17
ARI
13-9
0
0
1
0
0
3.6%
18%
Production
Receptions
6
Targets
13
Receiving yards
39
Touchdowns
0
Points per game
1.41
Yards per target
3
Catch rate
46.15%
Role
Snap share
33.71%
Target share
4.5%
Air-yards share
2.63%
WOPR
0.086
RACR
0.341
Efficiency
Average depth of target
3.8
Yards after catch per reception
3.5
Yards before catch per reception
3
Total YAC
21
Broken tackles
0
Drop rate
0.2%
Passer rating when targeted
53
Receiving EPA per game
-0.57
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
6
Red-zone target share
6.4%
End-zone target share
5.3%
Expected receiving TDs
1.36
Actual receiving TDs
1
Receiving TD luck
-0.36
Who else ate
The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
19.59%
Cooper Kupp
18.48%
Demarcus Robinson
11.83%
Tutu Atwell
11.46%
Colby Parkinson
9.06%
Tyler Johnson
7.58%
Blowouts against close games
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 1.65 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2023 · LA · 7 games
His best game was Week 14 against BAL — 15 PPR on 5 targets and a 12.8% target share, in a game that finished 31-37. His worst was Week 17 against NYG at 0, on 0 targets, final score 26-25. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 4.5 points per game. He scored 3.64, 34.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Rec
Tgt
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
9
GB
3-20
0
0
0
0
0
0%
10%
12
ARI
37-14
1.6
1
1
6
0
3.2%
13%
14
BAL
31-37
15
4
5
50
1
12.8%
71%
15
WAS
28-20
2.4
1
1
14
0
3.1%
35%
16
NO
30-22
0
0
0
0
0
0%
24%
17
NYG
26-25
0
0
0
0
0
0%
6%
18
SF
21-20
6.5
4
4
25
0
17.4%
75%
Production
Receptions
10
Targets
11
Receiving yards
95
Touchdowns
1
Points per game
3.64
Yards per target
8.64
Catch rate
90.91%
Role
Snap share
33.43%
Target share
5.21%
Air-yards share
1.34%
WOPR
0.087
RACR
0.744
Efficiency
Average depth of target
2.2
Yards after catch per reception
7.4
Yards before catch per reception
2.1
Total YAC
74
Broken tackles
0
Drop rate
0.1%
Passer rating when targeted
133
Receiving EPA per game
1.43
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
2
Red-zone target share
2.4%
End-zone target share
0%
Expected receiving TDs
0.41
Actual receiving TDs
1
Receiving TD luck
0.59
Who else ate
The offense threw it 583 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Puka Nacua
28.83%
Cooper Kupp
17.12%
Tyler Higbee
12.61%
Tutu Atwell
12.07%
Kyren Williams
8.65%
Demarcus Robinson
7.03%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Matthew Stafford
5
7
3.8
10
3.82%
Brett Rypien
1
0
0
—
0%
Carson Wentz
1
4
6.5
6.25
17.4%
Blowouts against close games
2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 6.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.8 in those and 4.78 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.