Tutu Atwell — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 3.9 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 3.2.

26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

ESPN	170
UNDERDOG	215.9
FFA	265

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	WR119

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 78.2 points, 4.8 per game — 27.2 catches, 378 yards, 2.2 TDs. That is WR6, 250 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 2.9 points per game to a ceiling of 9.4, with the median at 4.8. Boom rate 96%, bust rate 40%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 250. We rank him 80 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Miami Dolphins returns 1 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, wr1, te1, hc, oc. Malik Willis at quarterback, Jeff Hafley as head coach, Bobby Slowik calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.1 rushes.

In: Malik Willis (qb), Caleb Douglas (wr1), Chris Bell (wr2), Jalen Tolbert (wr4), Tutu Atwell (wr5), Kevin Coleman Jr. (wr6), Terrace Marshall Jr. (wr7), Donovan Edwards (rb4), Will Kacmarek (te2). Out: Tua Tagovailoa (qb), Tyreek Hill (wr1), Jaylen Waddle (wr2), Theo Wease Jr. (wr4), Darren Waller (te1).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.4%, with a bear case of 8.3% and a bull case of 13.6% and a full range of 4% to 15.2%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

De'Von Achane	15%
Greg Dulcich	14%
Tutu Atwell ←	10.4%
Caleb Douglas	9.3%
Malik Washington	9.2%
Chris Bell	9.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: New QB Malik Willis, avg 8.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Bobby Slowik — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jeff Hafley.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: MIA rates 19.5 against a league average of 23, 3.5 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-3 · harder
Weeks 1–6	-4.8 · harder
Weeks 12–17	-5.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-13.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -7.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Chase Claypool	2023	2	76%	-44%
Mecole Hardman	2023	4	68%	+17.8%
Van Jefferson	2023	3	66%	+39%
Tre'Quan Smith	2022	5.3	65%	-38.1%
Devin Duvernay	2023	0.6	63%	+13.2%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2021, round 2, pick 57 by LAR
College	Louisville
Age at draft	21
Height	5′8″
Weight	155 lb
40-yard dash	4.42s
Vertical	33″
Broad jump	117″
3-cone	6.89s
Shuttle	4.14s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	5.4
Week-to-week variation	0.8
Boom rate	10%
Bust rate	45%
Games missed per season	0
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	1

The record, season by season

2025 · LA · 8 games

His best game was Week 4 against IND — 15.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 5% target share, in a game that finished 27-20. His worst was Week 17 against ATL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-27. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.2 points per game. He scored 3.9, 21.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	HOU	14-9	1.4	1	1	4	0	3.6%	42%
2	TEN	33-19	0	0	1	0	0	3.1%	43%
3	PHI	26-33	0	0	1	0	0	3%	38%
4	IND	27-20	15.8	1	2	88	1	5%	28%
5	SF	23-26	9.2	2	4	72	0	8.7%	66%
15	DET	41-34	1.9	1	2	9	0	5.3%	6%
17	ATL	24-27	0	0	1	0	0	2.8%	20%
18	ARI	37-20	2.9	1	3	19	0	8.1%	13%

Production

Receptions	6
Targets	15
Receiving yards	192
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	3.9
Yards per target	12.8
Catch rate	40%

Role

Snap share	32%
Target share	4.95%
Air-yards share	8.94%
WOPR	0.139
RACR	0.568

Efficiency

Average depth of target	15.3
Yards after catch per reception	11.2
Yards before catch per reception	20.8
Total YAC	67
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	81.9
Receiving EPA per game	0.35

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	0.8%
End-zone target share	1.9%
Expected receiving TDs	0.15
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.15

Who else ate

The offense threw it 597 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.57%
Davante Adams	19.62%
Colby Parkinson	9.64%
Kyren Williams	8.61%
Tyler Higbee	6.2%
Davis Allen	5.68%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 8 games were blowouts, 9.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.9 in those and 4.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · LA · 15 games

His best game was Week 3 against SF — 13.3 PPR on 5 targets and a 21.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 15 against SF at 1.6, on 2 targets, final score 12-6. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 4 decided by more, 4.7. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7 points per game. He scored 6.59, 8.9% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
2	ARI	10-41	7.8	3	4	48	0	14.8%	19%
3	SF	27-24	13.3	4	5	93	0	21.7%	74%
4	CHI	18-24	12.2	4	6	82	0	20.7%	90%
5	GB	19-24	12.5	6	10	58	0	22.2%	81%
7	LV	20-15	11.1	6	9	51	0	40.9%	78%
8	MIN	30-20	2.8	1	2	18	0	5.9%	13%
9	SEA	26-20	2.6	1	3	16	0	7.1%	34%
10	MIA	15-23	1.6	1	1	6	0	2.3%	19%
11	NE	28-22	3.1	1	2	21	0	7.4%	13%
12	PHI	20-37	6	3	3	30	0	8.8%	27%
13	NO	21-14	5.9	2	2	39	0	8.7%	39%
14	BUF	44-42	7.5	3	3	45	0	10%	45%
15	SF	12-6	1.6	1	2	6	0	7.7%	31%
16	NYJ	19-9	2.2	1	2	12	0	10.5%	21%
18	SEA	25-30	8.7	5	8	37	0	20%	55%

Production

Receptions	42
Targets	62
Receiving yards	562
Carries	2
Rushing yards	7
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	6.59
Yards per target	9.06
Catch rate	67.74%
Yards per carry	3.5

Role

Snap share	42.6%
Target share	13.91%
Air-yards share	21.03%
WOPR	0.356
RACR	0.867

Efficiency

Average depth of target	11.2
Yards after catch per reception	3
Yards before catch per reception	10.4
Total YAC	126
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	82.9
Receiving EPA per game	1.25
Rushing EPA per game	-0.12

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	3
Red-zone target share	3.2%
End-zone target share	0%
Red-zone carry share	1.1%
Expected receiving TDs	0.6
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.6
Expected rushing TDs	0.04

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. He took 11.46% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	19.59%
Cooper Kupp	18.48%
Demarcus Robinson	11.83%
Tutu Atwell ←	11.46%
Colby Parkinson	9.06%
Tyler Johnson	7.58%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	14	54	6.44	9.72	13.48%
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	8	8.7	4.63	20%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 15 games were blowouts, 14% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.9 in those and 7.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · LA · 14 games

His best game was Week 1 against SEA — 17.9 PPR on 8 targets and a 21.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-13. His worst was Week 14 against BAL at 0, on 1 targets, final score 31-37. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.1; in the 7 decided by more, 7.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 8.03, 5.4% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	SEA	30-13	17.9	6	8	119	0	21.6%	79%
2	SF	23-30	15.2	7	9	77	0	17.3%	94%
3	CIN	16-19	17.2	4	9	50	1	28.1%	87%
4	IND	29-23	7.4	5	9	24	0	23.1%	78%
5	PHI	14-23	8.9	2	5	9	1	14.7%	89%
6	ARI	26-9	4	1	1	30	0	4.8%	88%
7	PIT	17-24	10.1	1	2	31	1	7.4%	74%
8	DAL	20-43	6.9	2	4	21	0	12.5%	97%
9	GB	3-20	5.3	4	7	13	0	25.9%	67%
11	SEA	17-16	2.7	1	3	17	0	10.3%	88%
12	ARI	37-14	10.6	3	3	76	0	9.7%	36%
13	CLE	36-19	1.9	1	2	9	0	5.9%	39%
14	BAL	31-37	0	0	1	0	0	2.6%	12%
18	SF	21-20	4.3	2	4	7	0	17.4%	93%

Production

Receptions	39
Targets	67
Receiving yards	483
Carries	5
Rushing yards	31
Touchdowns	3
Points per game	8.03
Yards per target	7.21
Catch rate	58.21%
Yards per carry	6.2

Role

Snap share	72.93%
Target share	14.38%
Air-yards share	19.31%
WOPR	0.351
RACR	0.604

Efficiency

Average depth of target	11.4
Yards after catch per reception	2.7
Yards before catch per reception	9.7
Total YAC	104
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	83.1
Receiving EPA per game	0.67
Rushing EPA per game	0.14

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	5
Red-zone target share	6.1%
End-zone target share	9.7%
Red-zone carry share	1.1%
Expected receiving TDs	2.01
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.01
Expected rushing TDs	0.05

Who else ate

The offense threw it 583 times. He took 12.07% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.83%
Cooper Kupp	17.12%
Tyler Higbee	12.61%
Tutu Atwell ←	12.07%
Kyren Williams	8.65%
Demarcus Robinson	7.03%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	12	56	8.57	8.27	13.17%
Brett Rypien	1	7	5.3	1.86	25.9%
Carson Wentz	1	4	4.3	1.75	17.4%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 14 games were blowouts, 41.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.77 in those and 8.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · LA · 12 games

His best game was Week 11 against NO — 13.2 PPR on 1 targets and a 3.7% target share, in a game that finished 20-27. His worst was Week 3 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-12. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.7; in the 7 decided by more, 2.8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 5.27, 5.7% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	BUF	10-31	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2.4%	10%
3	ARI	20-12	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4%	6%
5	DAL	10-22	6.4	1	2	54	0	0	0	4.8%	14%
6	CAR	24-10	0.9	0	0	0	1	9	0	0%	3%
11	NO	20-27	13.2	1	1	62	0	0	1	3.7%	11%
12	KC	10-26	4.3	2	2	23	0	0	0	8.3%	52%
13	SEA	23-27	9.1	2	5	48	4	23	0	20%	47%
14	LV	17-16	9.5	5	9	50	2	-5	0	26.5%	61%
15	GB	12-24	1.6	1	4	10	1	-4	0	20%	84%
16	DEN	51-14	3.4	2	2	14	0	0	0	7.1%	69%
17	LAC	10-31	3	2	5	10	0	0	0	27.8%	84%
18	SEA	16-19	11.8	2	3	27	1	11	1	12.5%	93%

Production

Receptions	18
Targets	35
Receiving yards	298
Carries	9
Rushing yards	34
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	5.27
Yards per target	8.51
Catch rate	51.43%
Yards per carry	3.78

Role

Snap share	44.5%
Target share	11.42%
Air-yards share	22.82%
WOPR	0.331
RACR	0.488

Efficiency

Average depth of target	17.8
Yards after catch per reception	3.3
Yards before catch per reception	13.2
Total YAC	60
Broken tackles	2
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	78
Receiving EPA per game	0.34
Rushing EPA per game	-0.02

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	2.9%
End-zone target share	3.4%
Red-zone carry share	5.5%
Expected receiving TDs	0.43
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.43
Expected rushing TDs	0.17

Who else ate

The offense threw it 529 times. He took 6.78% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Higbee	20.93%
Cooper Kupp	18.99%
Ben Skowronek	11.82%
Allen Robinson	10.08%
Van Jefferson	8.53%
Tutu Atwell ←	6.78%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	5	5	4.1	23.2	2.98%
Baker Mayfield	5	23	5.86	4.83	18.78%
Bryce Perkins	1	2	4.3	11.5	8.3%
John Wolford	1	5	9.1	9.6	20%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 10.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.13 in those and 8.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · LA · 6 games

His best game was Week 2 against IND — 0 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 8 against HOU at 0, on 0 targets, final score 38-22. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
2	IND	27-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
3	TB	34-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
4	ARI	20-37	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
5	SEA	26-17	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
6	NYG	38-11	0	0	0	0	0	0%	11%
8	HOU	38-22	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%

Production

Receptions	0
Targets	0
Receiving yards	0
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	0

Role

Snap share	1.83%
Target share	0%
Air-yards share	0%
WOPR	0
RACR	0

Efficiency

Receiving EPA per game

0

Who else ate

The offense threw it 606 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Cooper Kupp	31.73%
Van Jefferson	14.78%
Tyler Higbee	14.12%
Robert Woods	11.46%
Odell Beckham	7.97%
Darrell Henderson	6.64%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 6 games were blowouts. He averaged 0 in those and 0 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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