Colby Parkinson — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.27 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 212.7, usage worth 7.5.

27 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

SLEEPER	254.7
ESPN	170.6
UNDERDOG	210.1
FFA	202

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 18, pick 9 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	TE79
Bye week	11
ADP standard deviation	59.5 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 90.2 points, 5.9 per game — 36.9 catches, 353 yards, 3 TDs. That is TE5, 198 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 4.6 points per game to a ceiling of 13.1, with the median at 5.9. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 21%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 212.7 on consensus and our board has him 198. We rank him 14.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.

In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 8.5%, with a bear case of 7.9% and a bull case of 9.3% and a full range of 6.7% to 10.4%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Puka Nacua	26.9%
Davante Adams	19.1%
Kyren Williams	8.7%
Colby Parkinson ←	8.5%
Max Klare	8.3%
Jordan Whittington	6.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

Read the full Colby Parkinson study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +105.3% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Foster Moreau	2024	6.5	75%	-32.4%
Juwan Johnson	2024	8.2	70%	+55.3%
Will Dissly	2024	7.3	69%	-27.9%
Tyler Conklin	2023	7.2	64%	+24.5%
Jonnu Smith	2023	7.3	64%	+126.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2020, round 4, pick 133 by SEA
College	Stanford
Age at draft	21
Height	6′7″
Weight	252 lb
40-yard dash	4.77s
Vertical	32.5″
Broad jump	109″
3-cone	7.15s
Shuttle	4.46s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	5.6
Week-to-week variation	1
Boom rate	16.3%
Bust rate	24.5%
Games missed per season	0.2
Injury history	Shoulder
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score	0.27

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · LA · 14 games

His best game was Week 15 against DET — 24.5 PPR on 7 targets and a 18.4% target share, in a game that finished 41-34. His worst was Week 1 against HOU at -0.6, on 2 targets, final score 14-9. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 6 decided by more, 11.8. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 9.27, 25.1% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 7 against 5.43 expected, a gap of 1.6.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	HOU	14-9	-0.6	2	2	-6	0	7.1%	48%
4	IND	27-20	3.7	2	2	17	0	5%	28%
5	SF	23-26	0	0	1	0	0	2.2%	37%
7	JAX	35-7	7.7	3	3	47	0	9.1%	47%
9	NO	34-10	3	2	2	10	0	6.5%	56%
10	SF	42-26	14.1	4	5	41	1	14.7%	57%
11	SEA	21-19	9.4	2	2	14	1	7.4%	69%
12	TB	34-7	14.1	4	4	41	1	11.8%	62%
13	CAR	28-31	6.7	4	5	27	0	18.5%	67%
14	ARI	45-17	12.2	3	5	32	1	16.1%	69%
15	DET	41-34	24.5	5	7	75	2	18.4%	86%
16	SEA	37-38	4.1	2	4	21	0	8.3%	86%
17	ATL	24-27	11.3	6	7	53	0	19.4%	78%
18	ARI	37-20	19.6	4	7	36	2	18.9%	84%

Production

Receptions	43
Targets	56
Receiving yards	408
Touchdowns	8
Points per game	9.27
Yards per target	7.29
Catch rate	76.79%

Role

Snap share	62.43%
Target share	11.67%
Air-yards share	4.45%
WOPR	0.205
RACR	2.467

Efficiency

Average depth of target	4.4
Yards after catch per reception	6.3
Yards before catch per reception	3.2
Total YAC	271
Broken tackles	4
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	121.1
Receiving EPA per game	0.9

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	24
Red-zone target share	19%
End-zone target share	13%
Expected receiving TDs	5.43
Actual receiving TDs	7
Receiving TD luck	1.57

Who else ate

The offense threw it 597 times. He took 9.64% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	28.57%
Davante Adams	19.62%
Colby Parkinson ←	9.64%
Kyren Williams	8.61%
Tyler Higbee	6.2%
Davis Allen	5.68%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 14 games were blowouts, 43.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 11.32 in those and 7.39 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · LA · 16 games

His best game was Week 5 against GB — 12.2 PPR on 13 targets and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 19-24. His worst was Week 17 against ARI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 4 decided by more, 2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.5 points per game. He scored 4.09, 17.3% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DET	20-26	8.7	4	5	47	0	10.4%	88%
2	ARI	10-41	2.2	1	2	12	0	7.4%	81%
3	SF	27-24	5.1	3	5	21	0	21.7%	100%
4	CHI	18-24	7.3	4	7	33	0	24.1%	87%
5	GB	19-24	12.2	7	13	52	0	28.9%	79%
7	LV	20-15	5.2	2	2	32	0	9.1%	64%
8	MIN	30-20	3.7	2	2	17	0	5.9%	64%
9	SEA	26-20	0	0	0	0	0	0%	42%
11	NE	28-22	8.9	1	1	19	1	3.7%	37%
12	PHI	20-37	2	1	2	10	0	5.9%	30%
13	NO	21-14	2.3	1	1	13	0	4.3%	36%
14	BUF	44-42	2.1	1	1	11	0	3.3%	48%
15	SF	12-6	4.1	2	5	21	0	19.2%	49%
16	NYJ	19-9	0	0	1	0	0	5.3%	33%
17	ARI	13-9	0	0	1	0	0	3.6%	40%
18	SEA	25-30	1.6	1	1	6	0	2.5%	39%

Production

Receptions	30
Targets	49
Receiving yards	294
Touchdowns	1
Points per game	4.09
Yards per target	6
Catch rate	61.22%

Role

Snap share	57.31%
Target share	9.71%
Air-yards share	6.54%
WOPR	0.192
RACR	1.531

Efficiency

Average depth of target	5.3
Yards after catch per reception	5.3
Yards before catch per reception	4.5
Total YAC	160
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	84.9
Receiving EPA per game	0.2

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	10
Red-zone target share	10.6%
End-zone target share	15.8%
Expected receiving TDs	2.77
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.77

Who else ate

The offense threw it 559 times. He took 9.06% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Puka Nacua	19.59%
Cooper Kupp	18.48%
Demarcus Robinson	11.83%
Tutu Atwell	11.46%
Colby Parkinson ←	9.06%
Tyler Johnson	7.58%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Matthew Stafford	15	48	4.25	6	10.19%
Jimmy Garoppolo	1	1	1.6	6	2.5%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 6.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.1 in those and 4.79 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · SEA · 15 games

His best game was Week 14 against SF — 10.8 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.5% target share, in a game that finished 16-28. His worst was Week 11 against LA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 16-17. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.3; in the 7 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 4.11, 4.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 1 against 2.03 expected, a gap of -1.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	LA	13-30	1.8	1	2	8	0	8.3%	43%
2	DET	37-31	6.1	2	3	41	0	8.1%	50%
3	CAR	37-27	6.8	3	4	38	0	11.4%	71%
4	NYG	24-3	0	0	1	0	0	3.8%	58%
6	CIN	13-17	4.9	3	5	19	0	13.5%	45%
7	ARI	20-10	4.6	2	2	26	0	8.3%	53%
9	BAL	3-37	1.6	1	1	6	0	4%	45%
10	WAS	29-26	1.3	1	1	3	0	2.4%	41%
11	LA	16-17	0	0	0	0	0	0%	35%
12	SF	13-31	1.9	1	1	9	0	3.7%	36%
14	SF	16-28	10.8	2	2	28	1	6.5%	46%
15	PHI	20-17	1.6	1	1	6	0	3.1%	34%
16	TEN	20-17	10.7	3	4	17	1	11.1%	37%
17	PIT	23-30	5.8	2	3	38	0	9.1%	57%
18	ARI	21-20	3.8	3	4	8	0	15.4%	78%

Production

Receptions	25
Targets	34
Receiving yards	247
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.11
Yards per target	7.26
Catch rate	73.53%

Role

Snap share	48.6%
Target share	7.25%
Air-yards share	6.54%
WOPR	0.155
RACR	1.164

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.5
Yards after catch per reception	3.4
Yards before catch per reception	6.4
Total YAC	86
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	113.2
Receiving EPA per game	0.56

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	12.1%
End-zone target share	11.1%
Expected receiving TDs	2.03
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-1.03

Who else ate

The offense threw it 575 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Lockett	22.34%
DK Metcalf	21.79%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	17.03%
Noah Fant	7.88%
Zach Charbonnet	7.33%
Kenneth Walker	6.78%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Geno Smith	13	31	3.79	6.87	7.62%
Drew Lock	2	3	6.2	11.33	4.8%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 8.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.33 in those and 4.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · SEA · 14 games

His best game was Week 17 against NYJ — 14.6 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 23-6. His worst was Week 15 against SF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-21. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.5; in the 6 decided by more, 5.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.7 points per game. He scored 4.94, 5.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	DEN	17-16	12.3	2	2	43	1	7.4%	36%
3	ATL	23-27	6.4	2	2	44	0	4.5%	37%
4	DET	48-45	4.8	2	3	28	0	10.3%	36%
6	ARI	19-9	3.1	2	2	11	0	6.7%	35%
7	LAC	37-23	3.8	1	1	28	0	3.8%	38%
8	NYG	27-13	1.5	1	1	5	0	3%	36%
9	ARI	31-21	2.6	2	2	6	0	6.3%	40%
10	TB	16-21	1.7	1	3	7	0	9.1%	27%
13	LA	27-23	2.2	1	1	12	0	2.7%	36%
14	CAR	24-30	2	1	2	10	0	5.6%	31%
15	SF	13-21	0	0	1	0	0	2.4%	39%
16	KC	10-24	7.5	3	4	45	0	10.5%	41%
17	NYJ	23-6	14.6	5	7	36	1	25%	81%
18	LA	19-16	6.7	2	3	47	0	10.7%	79%

Production

Receptions	25
Targets	34
Receiving yards	322
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.94
Yards per target	9.47
Catch rate	73.53%

Role

Snap share	42.29%
Target share	7.71%
Air-yards share	7.84%
WOPR	0.171
RACR	1.927

Efficiency

Average depth of target	8.2
Yards after catch per reception	6
Yards before catch per reception	6.9
Total YAC	150
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	122.4
Receiving EPA per game	0.73

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	7
Red-zone target share	9%
End-zone target share	9.3%
Expected receiving TDs	1.55
Actual receiving TDs	1
Receiving TD luck	-0.55

Who else ate

The offense threw it 573 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf	25.5%
Tyler Lockett	21.16%
Noah Fant	11.39%
Marquise Goodwin	7.59%
Will Dissly	6.87%
Kenneth Walker	6.33%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 14 games were blowouts, 21.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.6 in those and 4.51 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2021 · SEA · 5 games

His best game was Week 18 against ARI — 3.4 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.5% target share, in a game that finished 38-30. His worst was Week 16 against CHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-25. Across 5 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 1.66, 40.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
5	LA	17-26	1.1	1	2	1	0	6.3%	54%
11	ARI	13-23	1.6	1	1	6	0	4%	8%
16	CHI	24-25	0	0	1	0	0	3.7%	39%
17	DET	51-29	2.2	1	1	12	0	3.6%	28%
18	ARI	38-30	3.4	2	3	14	0	11.5%	62%

Production

Receptions	5
Targets	8
Receiving yards	33
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	1.66
Yards per target	4.13
Catch rate	62.5%

Role

Snap share	38.2%
Target share	5.82%
Air-yards share	3.56%
WOPR	0.112
RACR	1.192

Efficiency

Average depth of target	5.9
Yards after catch per reception	4
Yards before catch per reception	2.6
Total YAC	20
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	71.4
Receiving EPA per game	0.19

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	3
Red-zone target share	5.3%
End-zone target share	3.7%
Expected receiving TDs	0.43
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 495 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

DK Metcalf	27.27%
Tyler Lockett	22.62%
Gerald Everett	13.32%
Freddie Swain	8.46%
Will Dissly	5.5%
DeeJay Dallas	4.86%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Russell Wilson	4	6	1.8	5.33	5.7%
Geno Smith	1	2	1.1	0.5	6.3%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 5 games were blowouts, 26.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.2 in those and 1.7 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2020 · SEA · 1 games

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.5 points per game. He scored 3.6, 2.9% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
14	NYJ	40-3	3.6	2	2	16	0	6.3%	26%

Production

Receptions	2
Targets	2
Receiving yards	16
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	3.6
Yards per target	8
Catch rate	100%

Role

Snap share	26%
Target share	6.3%
Air-yards share	4.8%
WOPR	0.13
RACR	1.45

Efficiency

Average depth of target	5.5
Yards after catch per reception	2.5
Yards before catch per reception	5.5
Total YAC	5
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	100
Receiving EPA per game	2.42

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	1.2%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.14
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.14

Who else ate

The offense threw it 563 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyler Lockett	24.63%
DK Metcalf	24.07%
David Moore	8.77%
Chris Carson	8.58%
Jacob Hollister	7.46%
Greg Olsen	6.9%

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