TE · KC · GWTTKB

Noah Gray — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 2.77 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 4.8.

27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 169.9
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN169.9
UNDERDOG216
FFA342

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE34

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 63.9 points, 4.2 per game — 28 catches, 251 yards, 1.8 TDs. That is TE5, 290 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 3.2 points per game to a ceiling of 8.3, with the median at 4.2. Boom rate 98%, bust rate 24%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 169.9 on consensus and our board has him 290. We rank him 120.1 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.

In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.7%, with a bear case of 6% and a bull case of 7.2% and a full range of 5.6% to 8%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Rashee Rice19.1%
Travis Kelce13.3%
Tyquan Thornton12.4%
Xavier Worthy12.1%
Brashard Smith7.7%
Cyrus Allen7.4%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.

Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.

Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).

Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How that share projection was built

25 historical comps for TEs age ~26, prior share 8.8%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 8.1%, p25-p75 [5.7%, 9.3%], tails [4.4%, 11.5%]. Closest comps: Colby Parkinson 2024→2025 (LA: 9.0%→11.8%); Colby Parkinson 2022→2023 (SEA: 8.4%→7.8%); Durham Smythe 2021→2022 (MIA: 8.0%→6.1%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)

self-anchored 58% to own 8.8% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 8.1%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-2.5 · harder
Weeks 1–6-1.3 · neutral
Weeks 12–17-5.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-4.9 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +1.7% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Foster Moreau20233.669%+61.9%
Brock Wright20243.267%+40.9%
Harrison Bryant20242.965%+48.9%
Will Dissly20233.164%+219.4%
Mo Alie-Cox20223.961%-20.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,00020222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2021-04 to 2026-07. From 0 to 1,834, peaking at 2,344.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2021, round 5, pick 162 by KAN
CollegeDuke
Age at draft22
Height6′3″
Weight240 lb
40-yard dash4.55s
Vertical35″
Broad jump115″
3-cone6.83s
Shuttle4.37s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game4.7
Week-to-week variation0.9
Boom rate9.1%
Bust rate25.5%
Games missed per season0.2
Injury historyConcussion
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.17

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · KC · 14 games

His best game was Week 18 against LV — 6 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.7% target share, in a game that finished 12-14. His worst was Week 16 against TEN at 0, on 0 targets, final score 9-26. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.6; in the 7 decided by more, 3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 2.77, 42.3% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LAC21-271.311302.6%41%
2PHI17-201.1151017.2%65%
3NYG22-94.73617017.1%68%
4BAL37-201.111102.9%56%
6DET30-174.5222507.1%75%
7LV31-03.8112802.9%59%
8WAS28-74.32423012.5%55%
9BUF21-28001003.4%37%
11DEN19-222.923907%51%
12IND23-205.5342509.3%32%
14HOU10-202.41314010.3%45%
16TEN9-26000000%51%
17DEN13-201.211205%49%
18LV12-1463530016.7%56%

Production

Receptions21
Targets37
Receiving yards178
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.77
Yards per target4.81
Catch rate56.76%

Role

Snap share52.86%
Target share8.14%
Air-yards share6.04%
WOPR0.164
RACR0.842

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.1
Yards after catch per reception5.1
Yards before catch per reception3.4
Total YAC107
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted69.4
Receiving EPA per game-0.49

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.6%
End-zone target share4.2%
Expected receiving TDs0.65
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.65

Who else ate

The offense threw it 584 times. He took 6.75% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Travis Kelce19.71%
Rashee Rice14.23%
Marquise Brown13.5%
Xavier Worthy13.32%
JuJu Smith-Schuster8.21%
Noah Gray 6.75%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Patrick Mahomes11312.874.718.39%
Chris Oladokun362.45.337.23%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 23.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.3 in those and 2.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · KC · 16 games

His best game was Week 12 against CAR — 22.6 PPR on 4 targets and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 30-27. His worst was Week 9 against TB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 30-24. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.7; in the 6 decided by more, 7.7. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.2 points per game. He scored 7.08, 26.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 2.44 expected, a gap of 1.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL27-206.73337011.1%54%
3ATL22-172.3121305.6%50%
4LAC17-1084440014.3%52%
5NO26-134.9222905.9%61%
7SF28-1810.64466016%67%
8LV27-205.3332308.6%72%
9TB30-24001002.4%69%
10DEN16-143.8221805%57%
11BUF21-3018.34523216.1%76%
12CAR30-2722.64466211.1%59%
13LV19-179.84658013.3%62%
14LAC19-176.64526013.9%61%
15CLE21-710.12521113.2%55%
16HOU27-192111002.4%49%
17PIT29-101.611602.6%45%
18DEN0-380.711105.9%12%

Production

Receptions40
Targets49
Receiving yards437
Carries1
Rushing yards-4
Touchdowns5
Points per game7.08
Yards per target8.92
Catch rate81.63%
Yards per carry-4

Role

Snap share56.31%
Target share9.21%
Air-yards share7.91%
WOPR0.195
RACR1.175

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.2
Yards after catch per reception5.3
Yards before catch per reception5.7
Total YAC210
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted120.8
Receiving EPA per game1.45
Rushing EPA per game-0.09

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share8.6%
End-zone target share14.7%
Expected receiving TDs2.44
Actual receiving TDs4
Receiving TD luck1.56

Who else ate

The offense threw it 600 times. He took 8.61% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Travis Kelce23.37%
Xavier Worthy17.22%
DeAndre Hopkins10.37%
Noah Gray 8.61%
Samaje Perine6.15%
Kareem Hunt5.62%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Patrick Mahomes15487.519.089.43%
Carson Wentz110.715.9%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.15 in those and 6.71 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · KC · 16 games

His best game was Week 4 against NYJ — 10.4 PPR on 3 targets and a 10.3% target share, in a game that finished 23-20. His worst was Week 18 against LAC at 0, on 3 targets, final score 13-12. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.7; in the 6 decided by more, 3.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.5 points per game. He scored 4.41, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1DET20-216.13531013.5%88%
2JAX17-96.8333807.5%61%
3CHI41-101.912905.4%61%
4NYJ23-2010.41334110.3%49%
5MIN27-204.1222105.1%65%
6DEN19-83.5221405.1%55%
7LAC31-171.811802.5%51%
8DEN9-244.5232508.1%48%
9MIA21-146.43334010.7%52%
11PHI17-21001002.6%41%
12LV31-176333009.4%50%
13GB19-277.211213.3%36%
15NE27-175.7223705.7%51%
16LV14-201.513507.3%42%
17CIN25-174.73417014.3%59%
18LAC13-120030010.3%47%

Production

Receptions28
Targets41
Receiving yards305
Carries1
Rushing yards1
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.41
Yards per target7.44
Catch rate68.29%
Yards per carry1

Role

Snap share53.5%
Target share7.57%
Air-yards share7.64%
WOPR0.167
RACR1.434

Efficiency

Average depth of target6.6
Yards after catch per reception4.8
Yards before catch per reception6.1
Total YAC133
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted96.1
Receiving EPA per game0.32
Rushing EPA per game-0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share3.5%
End-zone target share6.1%
Red-zone carry share1.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.02
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.02
Expected rushing TDs0.12

Who else ate

The offense threw it 634 times. He took 6.86% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Travis Kelce20.23%
Rashee Rice17.06%
Justin Watson8.86%
Isiah Pacheco8.19%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling7.02%
Noah Gray 6.86%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Patrick Mahomes15384.718.037.39%
Blaine Gabbert130010.3%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 2.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.9 in those and 4.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · KC · 17 games

His best game was Week 10 against JAX — 10 PPR on 2 targets and a 5.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-17. His worst was Week 5 against LV at 1.7, on 2 targets, final score 30-29. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 16 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 7 decided by more, 4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.3 points per game. He scored 4.12, 15.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1ARI44-212121005.1%53%
2LAC27-243.2231208.8%49%
3IND17-203.6122606.1%41%
4TB41-316.101012.9%58%
5LV30-291.712704.8%40%
6BUF20-244.3331308.6%42%
7SF44-232111002.9%58%
9TEN20-177.5334504.8%40%
10JAX27-1710222015.7%46%
11LAC30-273.5231509.7%60%
12LA26-103.6221605.4%66%
13CIN24-272.5111504.3%58%
14DEN34-287.5334507.1%57%
15HOU30-246.1333107.3%56%
16SEA24-101.811803.7%51%
17DEN27-242.2111202.4%55%
18LV31-132.4111404.2%58%

Production

Receptions28
Targets34
Receiving yards299
Carries1
Rushing yards1
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.12
Yards per target8.79
Catch rate82.35%
Yards per carry1

Role

Snap share52.24%
Target share5.52%
Air-yards share3.31%
WOPR0.107
RACR2.23

Efficiency

Average depth of target5
Yards after catch per reception6.5
Yards before catch per reception4.2
Total YAC182
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted113.1
Receiving EPA per game0.76
Rushing EPA per game0.09

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share3.2%
End-zone target share5.6%
Red-zone carry share1%
Goal-line carry share3.2%
Expected receiving TDs0.85
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.15
Expected rushing TDs0.43

Who else ate

The offense threw it 650 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Travis Kelce24.92%
JuJu Smith-Schuster16.56%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling13.28%
Jerick McKinnon11.64%
Justin Watson5.57%
Mecole Hardman5.57%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 9.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.13 in those and 4.21 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2021 · KC · 7 games

His best game was Week 10 against LV — 7.1 PPR on 3 targets and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 41-14. His worst was Week 4 against PHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 42-30. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.7 points per game. He scored 2.37, 18% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
3LAC24-301.511502.5%14%
4PHI42-30001003.3%27%
7TEN3-271.411402.1%31%
10LV41-147.113116.3%33%
11DAL19-91.811803%26%
16PIT36-103.2221206.9%73%
17CIN31-341.611602.9%16%

Production

Receptions7
Targets10
Receiving yards36
Touchdowns1
Points per game2.37
Yards per target3.6
Catch rate70%

Role

Snap share31.43%
Target share3.86%
Air-yards share1.34%
WOPR0.067
RACR0.957

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.3
Yards after catch per reception2.6
Yards before catch per reception2.6
Total YAC18
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted108.7
Receiving EPA per game0

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share4%
End-zone target share6.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.62
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.62

Who else ate

The offense threw it 674 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Tyreek Hill25.12%
Travis Kelce21.17%
Mecole Hardman13.11%
Byron Pringle9.48%
Darrel Williams9%
Demarcus Robinson6.48%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 7 games were blowouts, 70.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.9 in those and 1.55 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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