What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 104 overall.
Patrick Mahomes scored 285.68 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 285.4. That gap of 0.3 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 104 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 9: fantasy points went down from 24.5 to 15, a 39% change, at 2.54 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offense collapsed. He also missed Weeks 10, 16, 17, 18.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a stable year. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 20.41 points per game on 502 pass attempts — an 11.3% jump on his 2024 rate with KC. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the throws he made, where they went and how far downfield they traveled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 285.4 points — 20.4 per game. He scored 0.3 more than that, a 0.1% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 3,545 passing yards and 23.8 passing touchdowns, plus 293 rushing yards and 3.2 rushing touchdowns, and he cleared it.
6 of his 14 games produced 25 or more points: Week 1 against LAC (26.02), Week 4 against BAL (27.3), Week 5 against JAX (26.72), Week 6 against DET (31.48), Week 7 against LV (26.24), Week 13 against DAL (29.44). Strip them and the remaining 8 games average 14.8.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 1 game came in under 10 points, including Week 14 against HOU (6.3).
The three largest overshoots — Week 13 (+11.1), Week 6 (+9.8), Week 4 (+6.8) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
2 of his 6 seasons ran hot: 2020 (+11%), 2021 (+13.1%). 1 came in below what the usage justified: 2023 (-8.2%). Across all 6 he has scored 155.4 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 86 graded prop lines, he has gone over 51.2% of the time. On passing yards specifically the number is 51.7% across 29 lines, beating the posted number by an average of 1.5%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 19.9% rate and he converted at 24.1% — a gap of 4.2 points, which is worth noting.
Across 1,151 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. team implied total (r 0.146) carry.
So the figures worth weighing for him: 502 pass attempts, 68.25 passing EPA, 7.9 air yards per attempt. He was pressured on 24% of dropbacks, and put 74.3% of throws on target. He carried it 64 times, taking 7.5% of his team’s goal-line carries — the only replicated floor factor at the position.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offenses beat theirs systematically. Over 117 games, KC has come in -1.15 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 43% of weeks.
That is a structural drag. The market keeps expecting more from this offense than it delivers, and every skill player in it inherits that.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 313.3 points, 18.6 per game across 16.8 expected games — 4,223 passing yards, 25.9 passing touchdowns, 356 rushing yards, 2.7 rushing touchdowns. That is QB3, 112 overall, and -8 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
reportedly cleared and fully participating in camp without restrictions, removing one layer of uncertainty. But the team has also publicly signaled intent to scale back his rushing/scrambling rate specifically (his own long-term health, plus a new true bell-cow RB added this offseason) — directly threatening the exact rushing production that drove his big statistical spike two seasons ago. Realistic outlook: a return to very good, but no longer top-3.
The books do not agree on him. Patrick Mahomes is a consensus pick — every book within 11.4 picks of 104. That 11.4-pick gap between Underdog and ESPN is the practical thing to act on: in a ESPN-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 104 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 11.4 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on espn and earliest on underdog: sleeper 106.5, espn 109, yahoo 97.6, underdog 97.1, cbs 103.
He goes at 104 and our board has him 112. That is 8 picks of premium on a QB3 projection — the room is paying ahead of where the numbers put him. That does not make him a bad player; it makes this a bad price.
The case for: a 35% boom rate; 64 carries of his own, and rushing is the only quarterback signal that survived testing.
The case against: 2 of 6 seasons flagged as running hot — not simply finishing above expectation, but far enough above it to classify, which is the pattern that regresses; 155.4 career points scored above expectation — real, and not something to underwrite twice; 4 games missed in the anchor season; an offense that has come in 1.15 points under its own implied total.
The call: let the room have him at that price, and be glad to take him if he falls.
Ask the Coach about Patrick Mahomes Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realized usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 86 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.