Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.73 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.2, usage worth 5.3.
26 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| ESPN | 170.2 |
| UNDERDOG | 212.5 |
| FFA | 262 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR130 |
Our board has him at 81.7 points, 5 per game — 24.5 catches, 452 yards, 2 TDs. That is WR6, 247 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.6 points per game to a ceiling of 10.3, with the median at 5. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 30%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.2 on consensus and our board has him 247. We rank him 76.8 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 12.4%, with a bear case of 11.8% and a bull case of 14.7% and a full range of 11.3% to 15.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rashee Rice | 19.1% |
| Travis Kelce | 13.3% |
| Tyquan Thornton ← | 12.4% |
| Xavier Worthy | 12.1% |
| Brashard Smith | 7.7% |
| Cyrus Allen | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~25, prior share 9.8%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 16.9%, p25-p75 [14.5%, 19.2%], tails [13.7%, 20.6%]. Closest comps: Henry Ruggs 2020→2021 (LV: 10.9%→14.4%); Tutu Atwell 2023→2024 (LA: 13.2%→13.2%); Ricky Pearsall 2024→2025 (SF: 14.1%→16.9%). Adjustment: -8% from unsustainable_breakout (efficiency outlier)
self-anchored 30% to own 9.8% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 16.9%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +63.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, WRs crash the following year 40% of the time (hold 60%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 40% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 2023 | 4.1 | 78% | -11.3% |
| Denzel Mims | 2022 | 3.3 | 75% | -18.6% |
| Tutu Atwell | 2024 | 6.6 | 72% | +2% |
| Dyami Brown | 2024 | 4.5 | 68% | -23.1% |
| John Metchie III | 2024 | 5.5 | 67% | +13.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2022, round 2, pick 50 by NWE |
| College | Baylor |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 181 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.28s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 130″ |
| Career PPR per game | 4.4 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 4% |
| Bust rate | 40% |
| Games missed per season | 0.3 |
| Injury history | Concussion |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 3 against NYG — 18.1 PPR on 9 targets and a 25.7% target share, in a game that finished 22-9. His worst was Week 13 against DAL at 0, on 0 targets, final score 28-31. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 4 decided by more, 8.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.3 points per game. He scored 6.73, 27.8% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 21-27 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 10.5% | 72% |
| 2 | PHI | 17-20 | 13.9 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 17.2% | 75% |
| 3 | NYG | 22-9 | 18.1 | 5 | 9 | 71 | 1 | 25.7% | 76% |
| 4 | BAL | 37-20 | 8.1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 5.7% | 34% |
| 5 | JAX | 28-31 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 90 | 0 | 12.5% | 45% |
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 4.9 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 5.9% | 33% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 23% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 7.1 | 1 | 2 | 61 | 0 | 4.7% | 23% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 26% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 24% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10.3% | 30% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 6.7 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 10% | 51% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 37 |
| Receiving yards | 438 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 6.73 |
| Yards per target | 11.84 |
| Catch rate | 51.35% |
| Snap share | 42.67% |
| Target share | 9.02% |
| Air-yards share | 27.46% |
| WOPR | 0.328 |
| RACR | 0.382 |
| Average depth of target | 26.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 19.9 |
| Total YAC | 59 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 121.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.1% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.31 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.69 |
The offense threw it 584 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 16.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.5 in those and 5.73 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 1 against CIN — 4.7 PPR on 3 targets and a 13% target share, in a game that finished 16-10. His worst was Week 4 against SF at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-30. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 2.17, 38.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 16-10 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | 58% |
| 3 | NYJ | 3-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 33% |
| 4 | SF | 13-30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 20% |
| 8 | NYJ | 25-22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10.3% | 18% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 8 |
| Receiving yards | 47 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.17 |
| Yards per target | 5.88 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 32.25% |
| Target share | 7.65% |
| Air-yards share | 17.17% |
| WOPR | 0.235 |
| RACR | 0.258 |
| Average depth of target | 15.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Total YAC | 24 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 28.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.21 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Henry | 19.48% |
| Demario Douglas | 17.47% |
| Kayshon Boutte | 13.65% |
| Austin Hooper | 11.85% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 8.23% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 7.63% |
2 of his 4 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 4.35 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 17 against BUF — 5.4 PPR on 3 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 21-27. His worst was Week 7 against BUF at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 29-25. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times.
His usage that season was worth 4.4 points per game. He scored 3.02, 31.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LV | 17-21 | 1.6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.5% | 42% |
| 7 | BUF | 29-25 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.3% | 5% |
| 9 | WAS | 17-20 | 1.7 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9.3% | 19% |
| 12 | NYG | 7-10 | 4.2 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14.3% | 44% |
| 13 | LAC | 0-6 | 3.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 80% |
| 14 | PIT | 21-18 | 4.7 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 19.2% | 95% |
| 15 | KC | 17-27 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.2% | 13% |
| 16 | DEN | 26-23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3.2% | 9% |
| 17 | BUF | 21-27 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 12.5% | 70% |
| Receptions | 13 |
| Targets | 23 |
| Receiving yards | 91 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 51 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 3.02 |
| Yards per target | 3.96 |
| Catch rate | 56.52% |
| Yards per carry | 17 |
| Snap share | 41.89% |
| Target share | 8.41% |
| Air-yards share | 11.34% |
| WOPR | 0.206 |
| RACR | 0.486 |
| Average depth of target | 10 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.2 |
| Total YAC | 50 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 65.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.47 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.33 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 557 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Demario Douglas | 14.6% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 12.01% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.28% |
| DeVante Parker | 10.17% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 10.17% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9.43% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Zappe | 5 | 11 | 3.7 | 5.18 | 8.46% |
| Mac Jones | 4 | 12 | 2.17 | 2.83 | 8.35% |
His best game was Week 6 against CLE — 21.3 PPR on 5 targets and a 16.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-15. His worst was Week 11 against NYJ at 1.5, on 2 targets, final score 10-3. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.7; in the 7 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 5.52, 13.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | DET | 29-0 | 2.7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.3% | 42% |
| 6 | CLE | 38-15 | 21.3 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 16.1% | 57% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-33 | 2.9 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.9% | 85% |
| 8 | NYJ | 22-17 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3% | 78% |
| 9 | IND | 26-3 | 1.5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.8% | 67% |
| 11 | NYJ | 10-3 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.4% | 27% |
| 13 | BUF | 10-24 | 5.1 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8% | 39% |
| 14 | ARI | 27-13 | 6.8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15.2% | 88% |
| 15 | LV | 24-30 | 3.1 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.3% | 92% |
| 16 | CIN | 18-22 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7% | 93% |
| 17 | MIA | 23-21 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21.9% | 93% |
| 18 | BUF | 23-35 | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.1% | 54% |
| Receptions | 22 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 247 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 16 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Points per game | 5.52 |
| Yards per target | 5.49 |
| Catch rate | 48.89% |
| Yards per carry | 5.33 |
| Snap share | 67.92% |
| Target share | 12.48% |
| Air-yards share | 22.35% |
| WOPR | 0.343 |
| RACR | 0.733 |
| Average depth of target | 14.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 8.1 |
| Total YAC | 68 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 62 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.24 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.06 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 9.8% |
| End-zone target share | 17.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.78 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.22 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.48 |
The offense threw it 540 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jakobi Meyers | 18.71% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 17.15% |
| Hunter Henry | 11.5% |
| Nelson Agholor | 10.33% |
| Kendrick Bourne | 9.36% |
| DeVante Parker | 9.16% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 9 | 32 | 4.38 | 5.75 | 11.28% |
| Bailey Zappe | 3 | 13 | 8.97 | 4.85 | 16.1% |
4 of his 12 games were blowouts, 42.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.1 in those and 4.74 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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