Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.85 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 169.9, usage worth 16.7.
27 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 544 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB39 |
New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.
In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Garrett Wilson | 22.9% |
| Omar Cooper Jr | 16.3% |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 14% |
| Breece Hall | 10.8% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 10.1% |
| Mason Taylor | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.
Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall
Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.
Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.
Base case 106.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 16.2 and a bull case of 245.3, and a comp mean of 131.3. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler 2012 | 168.6 | 0.3 |
| Andy Dalton 2014 | 244.2 | 0.4 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012 | 167.7 | 0.4 |
| Matt Hasselbeck 2011 | 76.5 | 0.4 |
| Chad Henne 2010 | 59.9 | 0.4 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 3th percentile and his value in the 7th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | Andy Dalton | +6.1 |
| 2025 | 3 | Tyrod Taylor | +2.2 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -49.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, QBs recover only 30% of the time (keep falling 70%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 2021 | 20.8 | 39% | +82.5% |
| Bo Nix | 2024 | 18.7 | 31% | +9.5% |
| Zach Wilson | 2022 | 11 | 30% | -21.1% |
| Sam Howell | 2023 | 15.1 | 27% | -21.9% |
| C.J. Stroud | 2024 | 13 | 26% | -11.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 11 by CHI |
| College | Ohio St. |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 227 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.45s |
| Career PPR per game | 16.6 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.6 |
| Boom rate | 34.1% |
| Bust rate | 27.3% |
| Games missed per season | 2.2 |
| Injury history | Ribs, Hip, right Thumb, Abdomen, Concussion, Knee |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.45 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against PIT — 29.52 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-34. His worst was Week 2 against BUF at 3.98, on 0 targets, final score 10-30. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.6; in the 3 decided by more, 16.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 15.85, 4.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 32-34 | 29.52 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-30 | 3.98 | 0 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 0% | 62% |
| 4 | MIA | 21-27 | 27.14 | 0 | 7 | 81 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | DAL | 22-37 | 25.92 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | DEN | 11-13 | 4.9 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | CAR | 6-13 | 4.04 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 0% | 46% |
| 8 | CIN | 39-38 | 20.86 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | CLE | 27-20 | 6.96 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | NE | 14-27 | 19.34 | 0 | 11 | 67 | 2 | 3.8% | 100% |
| Targets | 1 |
| Carries | 71 |
| Rushing yards | 383 |
| Touchdowns | 11 |
| Points per game | 15.85 |
| Yards per target | 0 |
| Catch rate | 0% |
| Yards per carry | 5.39 |
| Snap share | 89.78% |
| Target share | 0.42% |
| Air-yards share | 0.31% |
| WOPR | 0.009 |
| Average depth of target | 6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 0 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 0 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 39.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.97 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.8% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 33.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.15 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.72 |
The offense threw it 493 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mason Taylor | 14.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | 12.8% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 12.58% |
| Breece Hall | 10.41% |
| John Metchie III | 9.54% |
| Isaiah Williams | 7.81% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7 | 1 | 19.23 | 0 | 0.54% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 2 | 0 | 4.01 | — | 0% |
1 of his 9 games were blowouts, 2.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.98 in those and 15.57 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against IND — 31.98 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 24-27. His worst was Week 13 against CIN at 0.7, on 0 targets, final score 44-38. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.9; in the 3 decided by more, 14.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 11.91, 1% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 18-10 | 11.94 | 0 | 14 | 57 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | DEN | 13-6 | 11.38 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | LAC | 20-10 | 18.4 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | IND | 24-27 | 31.98 | 0 | 10 | 55 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | DAL | 17-20 | 15.94 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 2 | 0% | 97% |
| 6 | LV | 32-13 | 23.7 | 0 | 11 | 59 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | BAL | 18-16 | 1.7 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 12 | CLE | 19-24 | 2.6 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 13 | CIN | 44-38 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 15 | PHI | 13-27 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 2% |
| Carries | 62 |
| Rushing yards | 289 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 11.91 |
| Yards per carry | 4.66 |
| Snap share | 61.6% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 15.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 19.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.76 |
The offense threw it 498 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.44% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 16.99% |
| Calvin Austin III | 12.64% |
| Najee Harris | 10.46% |
| Jaylen Warren | 10.24% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 6 | 0 | 18.89 | — | 0% |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 0 | 1.45 | — | 0% |
1 of his 10 games were blowouts, 19.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.7 in those and 10.89 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 5 against WAS — 32.98 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-20. His worst was Week 6 against MIN at 4.92, on 0 targets, final score 13-19. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.8; in the 7 decided by more, 21.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19.1 points per game. He scored 17.71, 7.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 20-38 | 14.54 | 0 | 9 | 59 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | TB | 17-27 | 14.74 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | KC | 10-41 | 10.66 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DEN | 28-31 | 27.9 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | WAS | 40-20 | 32.98 | 0 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | MIN | 13-19 | 4.92 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 0 | 0% | 53% |
| 11 | DET | 26-31 | 21.16 | 0 | 18 | 104 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | MIN | 12-10 | 10.58 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | DET | 28-13 | 24.72 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CLE | 17-20 | 9.64 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | ARI | 27-16 | 24.5 | 0 | 9 | 97 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | ATL | 37-17 | 25.22 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 18 | GB | 9-17 | 8.62 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 98% |
| Carries | 124 |
| Rushing yards | 657 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 17.71 |
| Yards per carry | 5.3 |
| Snap share | 96.23% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 25.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 20.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.1 |
The offense threw it 513 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| D.J. Moore | 28.87% |
| Cole Kmet | 19.11% |
| Darnell Mooney | 12.95% |
| Roschon Johnson | 8.49% |
| Tyler Scott | 6.79% |
| Khalil Herbert | 6.58% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 0 | 18.77 | — | 0% |
| Tyson Bagent | 1 | 0 | 4.92 | — | 0% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 36.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.85 in those and 13.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 9 against MIA — 42.72 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 32-35. His worst was Week 3 against HOU at 4.94, on 0 targets, final score 23-20. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 22.4; in the 7 decided by more, 16.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 17 points per game. He scored 19.73, 16.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 19-10 | 13.64 | 0 | 11 | 28 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | GB | 10-27 | 8.8 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | HOU | 23-20 | 4.94 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | NYG | 12-20 | 10.16 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | MIN | 22-29 | 17.02 | 0 | 8 | 47 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | WAS | 7-12 | 18.4 | 0 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | NE | 33-14 | 23.36 | 0 | 14 | 82 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | DAL | 29-49 | 26.04 | 0 | 8 | 60 | 3 | 0% | 96% |
| 9 | MIA | 32-35 | 42.72 | 0 | 15 | 178 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | DET | 30-31 | 39.38 | 0 | 13 | 147 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | ATL | 24-27 | 22.62 | 0 | 18 | 85 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | GB | 19-28 | 19.26 | 0 | 6 | 71 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | PHI | 20-25 | 23.58 | 0 | 15 | 95 | 2 | 0% | 98% |
| 16 | BUF | 13-35 | 9.86 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 92% |
| 17 | DET | 10-41 | 16.2 | 0 | 10 | 132 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 160 |
| Rushing yards | 1,143 |
| Touchdowns | 25 |
| Points per game | 19.73 |
| Yards per carry | 7.14 |
| Snap share | 99.07% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 4.35 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 27.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 41.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 5.28 |
The offense threw it 377 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Cole Kmet | 19.27% |
| Darnell Mooney | 17.04% |
| Dante Pettis | 11.45% |
| David Montgomery | 11.17% |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 10.61% |
| Chase Claypool | 8.1% |
5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 28.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.85 in those and 22.35 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 8 against SF — 25.3 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 22-33. His worst was Week 7 against TB at 1.16, on 0 targets, final score 3-38. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.5; in the 8 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 14.5 points per game. He scored 10.57, 27.2% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 14-34 | 6.7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 7% |
| 2 | CIN | 20-17 | 3.5 | 0 | 10 | 31 | 0 | 0% | 65% |
| 3 | CLE | 6-26 | 3.92 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DET | 24-14 | 7.26 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | LV | 20-9 | 8.84 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 95% |
| 6 | GB | 14-24 | 13.26 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | TB | 3-38 | 1.16 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | SF | 22-33 | 25.3 | 0 | 10 | 103 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | PIT | 27-29 | 18.14 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | BAL | 13-16 | 3.46 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| 14 | GB | 30-45 | 18.36 | 0 | 9 | 74 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | MIN | 9-17 | 16.9 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 72 |
| Rushing yards | 420 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 10.57 |
| Yards per carry | 5.83 |
| Snap share | 84.83% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 11.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.15 |
The offense threw it 542 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darnell Mooney | 26.72% |
| Cole Kmet | 17.75% |
| Allen Robinson | 12.6% |
| David Montgomery | 9.73% |
| Marquise Goodwin | 7.63% |
| Damiere Byrd | 7.25% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 10 | 0 | 11.66 | — | 0% |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 0 | 5.08 | — | 0% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 9.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.93 in those and 10.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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