Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 18.76 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 26.4, usage worth 16.7.
26 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 27.7 |
| ESPN | 22.6 |
| YAHOO | 32.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 26.2 |
| CBS | 22.5 |
| FFA | 36 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR11 |
| Bye week | 5 |
| ADP standard deviation | 5 picks |
Our board has him at 223.8 points, 13.6 per game — 86.2 catches, 993 yards, 5.6 TDs. That is WR3, 36 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 9.8 points per game to a ceiling of 18, with the median at 13.6. Boom rate 33%, bust rate 28%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 26.4 on consensus and our board has him 36. We rank him 9.6 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Least worrisome of the 'situation' WRs. Knee was a minor cleanup; the legal issue is a parole violation on an already-served matter, so a big in-season suspension is less likely than feared. Better in full PPR. Reasonable value where he's falling - but monitor for suspension news.
buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Kansas City Chiefs returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1, oc. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Andy Reid as head coach, Eric Bieniemy calling it. The offense projects to 34 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.8 rushes.
In: Justin Fields (qb2), Cyrus Allen (wr5), Andrew Armstrong (wr7), Kenneth Walker III (rb1), Emmett Johnson (rb3), Emari Demercado (rb4). Out: Marquise Brown (wr3), Isiah Pacheco (rb1), Kareem Hunt (rb2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 19.1%, with a bear case of 17.1% and a bull case of 20.5% and a full range of 15.4% to 23.5%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Rashee Rice ← | 19.1% |
| Travis Kelce | 13.3% |
| Tyquan Thornton | 12.4% |
| Xavier Worthy | 12.1% |
| Brashard Smith | 7.7% |
| Cyrus Allen | 7.4% |
What the offense looks like: Highly relevant offense to own pieces of. Mahomes needs to return to his MVP form to support WR other than Rice, but Kenneth Walker III may be about to feast in KC if he can stay healthy. Of note, if Walker were to suffer an injury, RB Emmett Johnson has a great opportunity to fill in and be a valuable back.
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy retuns to Chiefs as OC. Previously served as OC from 2018 - 2022. Add RB Kenneth Walker III in free agency on massive 3 year deal.
Key departures: Isiah Pacheco left Chiefs for Lions in free agency. RB Kareem Hunt is also likely gone from the team. WR Hollywood Brown also left to the Eagles in free agency. Chiefs lost RT Jawaan Taylor in free agency (mid).
Notes: Rashee Rice is slotted to operate as WR1 & holds high value for 2026 season. Mahomes should be recovered from torn ACL. Kelce is in his final season most likely. Xavier Worthy has struggled to produce, could break out, but not looking great right now. Chiefs sign Kenneth Walker III in free agency (reigning superbowl MVP RB from seahawks) and he is set for monster season. Brashard Smith should operate as receiving back and Emmett Johnson will battle for 3rd string back with Emari Demercado.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Patrick Mahomes returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34 att/g; New OC Eric Bieniemy — pass rate and tempo may shift.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 19.4%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 22.0%, p25-p75 [18.8%, 24.3%], tails [16.1%, 29.1%]. Closest comps: Rashee Rice 2023→2024 (KC: 19.4%→32.8%); Chris Godwin 2020→2021 (TB: 21.1%→21.1%); Chris Godwin 2021→2022 (TB: 21.3%→21.9%).
self-anchored 30% to own 19.4% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 22.0%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: KC rates 24.1 against a league average of 23, 1.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -2.5 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | -1.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5.1 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -4.9 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Rashee Rice study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -5.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 2022 | 17.7 | 62% | +55% |
| Calvin Ridley | 2020 | 18.8 | 61% | -18.6% |
| Justin Jefferson | 2021 | 19.4 | 54% | +18.9% |
| Diontae Johnson | 2022 | 10.6 | 52% | +6.8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2022 | 16.7 | 52% | +59.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 2, pick 55 by KAN |
| College | SMU |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 204 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51s |
| Vertical | 41″ |
| Broad jump | 128″ |
His best game was Week 13 against DAL — 29.4 PPR on 12 targets and a 37.5% target share, in a game that finished 28-31. His worst was Week 14 against HOU at 7.4, on 8 targets, final score 10-20. Across 8 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.8; in the 3 decided by more, 18.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.7 points per game. He scored 18.76, 12.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 4 against 6.18 expected, a gap of -2.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | LV | 31-0 | 23.2 | 7 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 29.4% | 41% |
| 8 | WAS | 28-7 | 25.5 | 9 | 9 | 93 | 1 | 28.1% | 86% |
| 9 | BUF | 21-28 | 18.6 | 4 | 7 | 80 | 1 | 24.1% | 82% |
| 11 | DEN | 19-22 | 9.8 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 | 20.9% | 76% |
| 12 | IND | 23-20 | 24.1 | 8 | 12 | 141 | 0 | 27.9% | 62% |
| 13 | DAL | 28-31 | 29.4 | 8 | 12 | 92 | 2 | 37.5% | 89% |
| 14 | HOU | 10-20 | 7.4 | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 27.6% | 78% |
| 15 | LAC | 13-16 | 12.1 | 7 | 11 | 51 | 0 | 36.7% | 85% |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Targets | 78 |
| Receiving yards | 571 |
| Carries | 5 |
| Rushing yards | 20 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 18.76 |
| Yards per target | 7.32 |
| Catch rate | 67.95% |
| Yards per carry | 4 |
| Snap share | 74.88% |
| Target share | 29.02% |
| Air-yards share | 13.71% |
| WOPR | 0.532 |
| RACR | 2.331 |
| Average depth of target | 4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3 |
| Total YAC | 414 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 105.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 23.1% |
| End-zone target share | 20.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 9.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 4 |
| Receiving TD luck | -2.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.92 |
The offense threw it 584 times. He took 14.23% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 19.71% |
| Rashee Rice ← | 14.23% |
| Marquise Brown | 13.5% |
| Xavier Worthy | 13.32% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8.21% |
| Noah Gray | 6.75% |
2 of his 8 games were blowouts, 32.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 24.35 in those and 18.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 3 against ATL — 29.1 PPR on 14 targets and a 38.9% target share, in a game that finished 22-17. His worst was Week 4 against LAC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 17-10. Across 4 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 1 time.
His usage that season was worth 17.1 points per game. He scored 16.23, 26.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 27-20 | 17.3 | 7 | 9 | 103 | 0 | 33.3% | 78% |
| 2 | CIN | 26-25 | 18.5 | 5 | 6 | 75 | 1 | 26.1% | 83% |
| 3 | ATL | 22-17 | 29.1 | 12 | 14 | 110 | 1 | 38.9% | 74% |
| 4 | LAC | 17-10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| Receptions | 24 |
| Targets | 29 |
| Receiving yards | 288 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 16.23 |
| Yards per target | 9.93 |
| Catch rate | 82.76% |
| Yards per carry | 1 |
| Snap share | 60.25% |
| Target share | 24.57% |
| Air-yards share | 24.88% |
| WOPR | 0.542 |
| RACR | 1.43 |
| Average depth of target | 5.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.3 |
| Total YAC | 186 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 116.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 4.12 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.59 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.7% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.46 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.54 |
The offense threw it 600 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 23.37% |
| Xavier Worthy | 17.22% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10.37% |
| Noah Gray | 8.61% |
| Samaje Perine | 6.15% |
| Kareem Hunt | 5.62% |
His best game was Week 12 against LV — 24.7 PPR on 10 targets and a 31.3% target share, in a game that finished 31-17. His worst was Week 2 against JAX at 4, on 2 targets, final score 17-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.5; in the 6 decided by more, 16.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 11.6 points per game. He scored 13.28, 16.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-21 | 11.6 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 13.5% | 31% |
| 2 | JAX | 17-9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 5% | 18% |
| 3 | CHI | 41-10 | 10.9 | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 | 18.9% | 51% |
| 4 | NYJ | 23-20 | 6.2 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 17.2% | 46% |
| 5 | MIN | 27-20 | 13.3 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 12.8% | 30% |
| 6 | DEN | 19-8 | 11.2 | 4 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 10.3% | 49% |
| 7 | LAC | 31-17 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 15% | 59% |
| 8 | DEN | 9-24 | 9.6 | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13.5% | 61% |
| 9 | MIA | 21-14 | 9.7 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 7.1% | 68% |
| 11 | PHI | 17-21 | 8.2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 12.8% | 57% |
| 12 | LV | 31-17 | 24.7 | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 | 31.3% | 67% |
| 13 | GB | 19-27 | 14.4 | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 | 30% | 69% |
| 14 | BUF | 17-20 | 18.2 | 7 | 10 | 72 | 1 | 25.6% | 85% |
| 15 | NE | 27-17 | 24.1 | 9 | 9 | 91 | 1 | 25.7% | 92% |
| 16 | LV | 14-20 | 11.7 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 29.3% | 75% |
| 17 | CIN | 25-17 | 17.7 | 5 | 6 | 127 | 0 | 21.4% | 78% |
| Receptions | 79 |
| Targets | 102 |
| Receiving yards | 938 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -3 |
| Touchdowns | 7 |
| Points per game | 13.28 |
| Yards per target | 9.2 |
| Catch rate | 77.45% |
| Yards per carry | -3 |
| Snap share | 58.5% |
| Target share | 18.09% |
| Air-yards share | 14.15% |
| WOPR | 0.371 |
| RACR | 2.61 |
| Average depth of target | 4.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 653 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 123.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.47 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.14 |
| Red-zone targets | 28 |
| Red-zone target share | 24.8% |
| End-zone target share | 21.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 6.79 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 7 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.21 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 27 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 19 of 51 |
| Target share | 41 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 50 of 51 |
The offense threw it 634 times. He took 17.06% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Travis Kelce | 20.23% |
| Rashee Rice ← | 17.06% |
| Justin Watson | 8.86% |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.19% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 7.02% |
| Noah Gray | 6.86% |
1 of his 16 games were blowouts, 5.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.9 in those and 11.5 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Rashee Rice →