Devin Duvernay — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.27 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 0.4.

28 years old · 6 seasons of experience · 2020 draft class

ESPN

170

Draft-room facts

Goes around	Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rank	WR103

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 14.6 points, 0.9 per game — 5.8 catches, 64 yards, 0.4 TDs. That is WR6, 410 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 0.6 points per game to a ceiling of 1.6, with the median at 0.9. Boom rate 70%, bust rate 30%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 410. We rank him 240 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Arizona Cardinals returns 2 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, rb1, hc, oc. Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, Mike LaFleur as head coach, Nathaniel Hackett calling it. The offense projects to 31.9 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 24.8 rushes.

In: Carson Beck (qb), Carson Beck (qb2), Gardner Minshew II (qb2), Kendrick Bourne (wr3), Devin Duvernay (wr5), Reggie Virgil (wr6), Jeremiyah Love (rb1), Tyler Allgeier (rb2). Out: Kyler Murray (qb), Greg Dortch (wr3), Zay Jones (wr4), Jalen Brooks (wr6), Emari Demercado (rb2), Michael Carter (rb3).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 1.8%, with a bear case of 0.7% and a bull case of 2.8%.

The projected target split across the offense:

Trey McBride	21.8%
Marvin Harrison Jr	14.4%
Michael Wilson	13.9%
Jeremiyah Love	10%
Elijah Higgins	6.2%
James Conner	6.1%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

How the volume number was reached: New QB Jacoby Brissett, avg 28.8 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 65% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 31.9 att/g; New OC Nathaniel Hackett — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike LaFleur.

How that share projection was built

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: ARI rates 19.1 against a league average of 23, 3.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season	-0.8 · neutral
Weeks 1–6	-0.5 · neutral
Weeks 12–17	-0.8 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)	-1 · neutral

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -15.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

Player	Season	Their PPG	Similarity	Next year
Brandon Powell	2024	0.9	64%	+24.8%
Kalif Raymond	2024	4.7	57%	-12.4%
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2024	1.5	56%	+13.5%
Scott Miller	2024	2	51%	+24.7%
Chase Claypool	2023	2	50%	-44%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted	2020, round 3, pick 92 by BAL
College	Texas
Age at draft	22
Height	5′10″
Weight	200 lb
40-yard dash	4.39s
Vertical	35.5″
Broad jump	123″
3-cone	7.13s
Shuttle	4.2s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game	2.9
Week-to-week variation	1.2
Boom rate	2.9%
Bust rate	54.3%
Games missed per season	0.2
Injury history	Ankle

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · CHI · 17 games

His best game was Week 14 against GB — 3.4 PPR on 1 targets and a 3.6% target share, in a game that finished 21-28. His worst was Week 18 against DET at 0, on 0 targets, final score 16-19. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 17 times. In the 11 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.3; in the 6 decided by more, 0.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 0.4 points per game. He scored 0.27, 45.9% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	MIN	24-27	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
2	DET	21-52	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
3	DAL	31-14	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
4	LV	25-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
6	WAS	25-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
7	NO	26-14	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
8	BAL	16-30	1.2	1	3	2	0	8.6%	16%
9	CIN	47-42	0	0	0	0	0	0%	2%
10	NYG	24-20	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
11	MIN	19-17	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
12	PIT	31-28	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
13	PHI	24-15	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
14	GB	21-28	3.4	1	1	24	0	3.6%	1%
15	CLE	31-3	0	0	0	0	0	0%	15%
16	GB	22-16	0	0	0	0	0	0%	9%
17	SF	38-42	0	0	1	0	0	2.6%	17%
18	DET	16-19	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%

Production

Receptions	2
Targets	5
Receiving yards	26
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	0.27
Yards per target	5.2
Catch rate	40%

Role

Snap share	3.53%
Target share	0.87%
Air-yards share	1.45%
WOPR	0.024
RACR	0.061

Efficiency

Average depth of target	14.2
Yards after catch per reception	0
Yards before catch per reception	13
Total YAC	0
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	57.1
Receiving EPA per game	-0.02

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	1.3%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.51
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.51

Who else ate

The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Rome Odunze	16.98%
D.J. Moore	16.04%
Colston Loveland	15.47%
Olamide Zaccheaus	12.26%
Luther Burden III	11.32%
D'Andre Swift	9.06%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 0.31 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · JAX · 13 games

His best game was Week 15 against NYJ — 7.2 PPR on 4 targets and a 9.3% target share, in a game that finished 25-32. His worst was Week 18 against IND at 0, on 0 targets, final score 23-26. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 1.48, 32.4% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	MIA	17-20	0.3	0	0	0	0	0%	9%
2	CLE	13-18	0.4	0	0	0	0	0%	5%
3	BUF	10-47	0.9	1	1	-1	0	2.3%	15%
4	HOU	20-24	0	0	0	0	0	0%	10%
5	IND	37-34	0.3	0	0	0	0	0%	12%
10	MIN	7-12	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
11	DET	6-52	0	0	2	0	0	7.1%	29%
13	HOU	20-23	4.3	2	4	23	0	9.5%	57%
14	TEN	10-6	3.1	3	3	8	0	10%	49%
15	NYJ	25-32	7.2	3	4	42	0	9.3%	46%
16	LV	14-19	1.3	1	1	3	0	2.9%	31%
17	TEN	20-13	1.4	1	1	4	0	4.8%	16%
18	IND	23-26	0	0	0	0	0	0%	9%

Production

Receptions	11
Targets	16
Receiving yards	79
Carries	4
Rushing yards	3
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	1.48
Yards per target	4.94
Catch rate	68.75%
Yards per carry	0.75

Role

Snap share	22.15%
Target share	3.53%
Air-yards share	4.22%
WOPR	0.083
RACR	0.374

Efficiency

Average depth of target	11.4
Yards after catch per reception	5.7
Yards before catch per reception	1.5
Total YAC	63
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	53.9
Receiving EPA per game	0.26
Rushing EPA per game	-0.08

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	3.2%
End-zone target share	0%
Red-zone carry share	1.4%
Expected receiving TDs	0.28
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.28
Expected rushing TDs	0.04

Who else ate

The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Brian Thomas	25.48%
Evan Engram	12.26%
Brenton Strange	10.15%
Travis Etienne	9.96%
Parker Washington	9.77%
Christian Kirk	9%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Mac Jones	8	15	2.16	5.33	5.45%
Trevor Lawrence	5	1	0.38	-1	0.46%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 4.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.45 in those and 1.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · BAL · 13 games

His best game was Week 9 against SEA — 3 PPR on 2 targets and a 6.3% target share, in a game that finished 37-3. His worst was Week 14 against LA at 0, on 0 targets, final score 37-31. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.2; in the 6 decided by more, 1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 0.56, 52.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	HOU	25-9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	11%
2	CIN	27-24	1.5	0	3	0	3	15	0	9.1%	29%
3	IND	19-22	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3.3%	25%
4	CLE	28-3	2.8	2	2	8	0	0	0	11.1%	60%
5	PIT	10-17	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2.6%	9%
6	TEN	24-16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	21%
7	DET	38-6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	15%
8	ARI	31-24	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	3%
9	SEA	37-3	3	2	2	10	0	0	0	6.3%	21%
10	CLE	31-33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	7%
11	CIN	34-20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%
12	LAC	20-10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0%	3%
14	LA	37-31	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%

Production

Receptions	4
Targets	9
Receiving yards	18
Carries	4
Rushing yards	15
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	0.56
Yards per target	2
Catch rate	44.44%
Yards per carry	3.75

Role

Snap share	15.69%
Target share	2.49%
Air-yards share	2.33%
WOPR	0.054
RACR	0.154

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9
Yards after catch per reception	4.3
Yards before catch per reception	0.3
Total YAC	17
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0.1%
Passer rating when targeted	51.6
Receiving EPA per game	-0.31
Rushing EPA per game	-0.04

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	1
Red-zone target share	1.4%
End-zone target share	0%
Red-zone carry share	0.8%
Expected receiving TDs	0.14
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.14
Expected rushing TDs	0.05

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers	22.69%
Odell Beckham	13.45%
Mark Andrews	12.82%
Rashod Bateman	11.76%
Nelson Agholor	9.45%
Isaiah Likely	8.4%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 79.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.93 in those and 0.21 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · BAL · 14 games

His best game was Week 1 against NYJ — 21.4 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.8% target share, in a game that finished 24-9. His worst was Week 14 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 16-14. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.5; in the 5 decided by more, 8. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6 points per game. He scored 8.29, 38.7% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Car	Rush	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	NYJ	24-9	21.4	4	4	54	0	0	2	13.8%	52%
2	MIA	38-42	12.2	2	2	42	0	0	0	6.9%	54%
3	NE	37-26	10.3	2	2	25	2	-2	1	7.4%	58%
4	BUF	20-23	9.1	4	5	51	0	0	0	17.9%	64%
5	CIN	19-17	12.8	5	7	54	3	24	0	25.9%	72%
6	NYG	20-24	2.4	1	5	14	0	0	0	15.6%	68%
7	CLE	23-20	6.2	2	3	42	0	0	0	18.8%	66%
8	TB	27-22	16.4	4	4	31	2	33	1	11.8%	66%
9	NO	27-13	1.5	1	1	5	0	0	0	4.5%	74%
11	CAR	13-3	1.7	1	1	3	1	4	0	3.1%	84%
12	JAX	27-28	6.9	3	5	23	2	16	0	16.7%	78%
13	DEN	10-9	10.3	6	6	34	2	9	0	16.7%	94%
14	PIT	16-14	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5.9%	57%
15	CLE	3-13	4.9	2	3	29	0	0	0	10.7%	71%

Production

Receptions	37
Targets	49
Receiving yards	407
Carries	12
Rushing yards	84
Touchdowns	4
Points per game	8.29
Yards per target	8.31
Catch rate	75.51%
Yards per carry	7

Role

Snap share	68.43%
Target share	12.55%
Air-yards share	13.23%
WOPR	0.281
RACR	1.412

Efficiency

Average depth of target	9
Yards after catch per reception	4.2
Yards before catch per reception	6.8
Total YAC	156
Broken tackles	0
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	111.5
Receiving EPA per game	1.41
Rushing EPA per game	0.39

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	10.1%
End-zone target share	15.6%
Red-zone carry share	3.1%
Expected receiving TDs	2.16
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.16
Expected rushing TDs	0.24

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. He took 10.54% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews	24.3%
Demarcus Robinson	16.13%
Isaiah Likely	12.9%
Devin Duvernay ←	10.54%
Rashod Bateman	6.02%
Kenyan Drake	5.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Lamar Jackson	11	39	9.17	8.82	12.95%
Tyler Huntley	3	10	5.07	6.3	11.1%

2021 · BAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 3 against DET — 10.2 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 19-17. His worst was Week 2 against KC at 0, on 0 targets, final score 36-35. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 12 times. In the 12 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.7; in the 4 decided by more, 5.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.4 points per game. He scored 4.83, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	LV	27-33	1.6	1	2	6	0	6.9%	57%
2	KC	36-35	0	0	0	0	0	0%	49%
3	DET	19-17	10.2	2	3	22	1	11.1%	57%
4	DEN	23-7	6.1	3	6	31	0	17.1%	45%
5	IND	31-25	8.5	4	4	45	0	9.3%	88%
6	LAC	34-6	4.6	2	3	15	0	11.1%	49%
7	CIN	17-41	1.9	1	1	11	0	2.4%	49%
9	MIN	34-31	8.8	2	2	8	1	4.9%	42%
10	MIA	10-22	8.7	4	4	28	0	9.8%	60%
11	CHI	16-13	7.7	4	6	37	0	16.7%	54%
12	CLE	16-10	2.5	1	2	2	0	6.3%	43%
13	PIT	19-20	4.1	2	3	21	0	8.1%	59%
14	CLE	22-24	3.7	2	5	14	0	12.5%	66%
15	GB	30-31	4.3	3	3	13	0	7.7%	31%
17	LA	19-20	4.3	2	3	19	0	10.3%	42%
18	PIT	13-16	0.2	0	0	0	0	0%	25%

Production

Receptions	33
Targets	47
Receiving yards	272
Carries	7
Rushing yards	50
Touchdowns	2
Points per game	4.83
Yards per target	5.79
Catch rate	70.21%
Yards per carry	7.14

Role

Snap share	51%
Target share	8.39%
Air-yards share	5.86%
WOPR	0.168
RACR	1.733

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6
Yards after catch per reception	4.3
Yards before catch per reception	4
Total YAC	141
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	98.9
Receiving EPA per game	0.46
Rushing EPA per game	0.15

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	8
Red-zone target share	10%
End-zone target share	13.3%
Expected receiving TDs	2.23
Actual receiving TDs	2
Receiving TD luck	-0.23

Who else ate

The offense threw it 610 times. He took 7.95% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews	25.89%
Marquise Brown	24.7%
Rashod Bateman	11.51%
Sammy Watkins	8.29%
Devin Duvernay ←	7.95%
Devonta Freeman	7.11%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Lamar Jackson	11	30	5.18	6.3	7.91%
Tyler Huntley	5	17	4.04	4.88	9.44%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 16 games were blowouts, 8.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.25 in those and 4.66 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2020 · BAL · 15 games

His best game was Week 3 against KC — 8.7 PPR on 3 targets and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 20-34. His worst was Week 9 against IND at -0.1, on 0 targets, final score 24-10. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.2; in the 9 decided by more, 3.1. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.4 points per game. He scored 3.54, 13.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

Wk	Opp	Score	PPR	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt%	Snap%
1	CLE	38-6	2.2	1	1	12	0	4%	19%
2	HOU	33-16	2.9	1	1	19	0	4.3%	9%
3	KC	20-34	8.7	2	3	7	0	11.1%	13%
4	WAS	31-17	1.4	1	2	4	0	8.7%	28%
5	CIN	27-3	7.9	2	2	17	0	5.6%	29%
6	PHI	30-28	6.1	3	3	31	0	12%	36%
8	PIT	24-28	4.9	1	3	39	0	11.5%	45%
9	IND	24-10	-0.1	0	0	0	0	0%	41%
10	NE	17-23	7.5	3	3	45	0	8.8%	55%
11	TEN	24-30	1.5	1	2	5	0	7.1%	20%
12	PIT	14-19	5	3	3	20	0	16.7%	77%
13	DAL	34-17	1.2	1	1	2	0	5.9%	80%
14	CLE	47-42	0	0	0	0	0	0%	15%
16	NYG	27-13	1.7	1	1	0	0	4.3%	34%
17	CIN	38-3	2.2	0	1	0	0	5.3%	41%

Production

Receptions	20
Targets	26
Receiving yards	201
Carries	4
Rushing yards	70
Touchdowns	0
Points per game	3.54
Yards per target	7.73
Catch rate	76.92%
Yards per carry	17.5

Role

Snap share	36.13%
Target share	7.02%
Air-yards share	4.51%
WOPR	0.138
RACR	1.109

Efficiency

Average depth of target	6.2
Yards after catch per reception	5.9
Yards before catch per reception	4.2
Total YAC	118
Broken tackles	1
Drop rate	0%
Passer rating when targeted	66.3
Receiving EPA per game	0.28
Rushing EPA per game	0.33

Scoring position

Red-zone targets	2
Red-zone target share	2.9%
End-zone target share	0%
Expected receiving TDs	0.45
Actual receiving TDs	0
Receiving TD luck	-0.45

Who else ate

The offense threw it 405 times. He took 6.63% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marquise Brown	25.51%
Mark Andrews	22.45%
Willie Snead	12.24%
Miles Boykin	8.42%
Devin Duvernay ←	6.63%
J.K. Dobbins	6.12%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QB	Games	Targets	PPG	Y/T	Tgt%
Lamar Jackson	14	23	3.44	7.87	6.33%
Robert Griffin	1	3	5	6.67	16.7%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 15 games were blowouts, 30.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.28 in those and 4.17 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

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