Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.88 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 193.8, usage worth 2.1.
23 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 217.5 |
| ESPN | 170 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 240 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB113 |
| ADP standard deviation | 33.6 picks |
Our board has him at 50.2 points, 3.1 per game — 281 rushing yards, 2.3 rushing TDs, 4.1 catches. That is RB6, 231 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.1 points per game to a ceiling of 5.5, with the median at 3.1. Boom rate 77%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 193.8 on consensus and our board has him 231. We rank him 37.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Pittsburgh Steelers returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Mike McCarthy as head coach, Brian Angelichio calling it. The offense projects to 33 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25.3 rushes.
In: Drew Allar (qb2), Michael Pittman Jr. (wr2), Germie Bernard (wr3), Kaden Wejen (wr6), A.T. Perry (wr7), Rico Dowdle (rb2), Eli Heidenreich (rb4). Out: Calvin Austin III (wr2), Adam Thielen (wr4), Kenneth Gainwell (rb2), Jonnu Smith (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Jaylen Warren | 50.2% |
| Rico Dowdle | 38.2% |
| Kaleb Johnson ← | 9.6% |
| Eli Heidenreich | 2% |
Key additions: Traded for and Signed Michael Pittman Jr to 3 year $59M deal. Signed RB Rico Dowdle to 2/$12M deal in free agency. Drafted WR Germie Bernard in 2nd round, Drafted OT Max Iheanachor in 1st roud to beef up line. Drafted QB Drew Allar in the 3rd round. Drafted G Gennings Dunker 3rd roud (depth). Bringin in HC Mike McCarthy & Brian Angelichio as OC.
Key departures: RB Kenneth Gainwell left in free agency to Bucs. LG Isaac Seumalo left for Cardinals. WR Calvin Austin III left in free agency for Giants. HC Mike Tomlin & OC Arthur Smith (Ass) are both gone.
Notes: Drafted Bernard round 2 Steelers traded up. Steelers traded for Michael Pittman Jr. who is aging but will elevate the passing game. DK Metcalf looks to get back on track in 2026 & establish himself as WR1. Crowded WR room. Steelers drafted WR Riley Nowakowski in the 4th round & he will likely operate as WR5 or return specialist. Signed Rico Dowdle to 2 year deal in free agency. Warren is slotted to be 1A and Dowdle 1B, but any injury to either back makes the other a home run hit in fantasy for 2026. Aaron Rodgers SHOULD return to Steelers, but also drafted Drew Allar (bad QB but good prospect who should be rostered because he can progress. Zero floor on Allar but the ceiling is very high if he gets better.)
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Aaron Rodgers returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (32.4 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33 att/g; New OC Brian Angelichio — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Mike McCarthy.
| Projected carry share | 9.6% |
| Projected carries per game | 2 |
| Projected carries, full season | 34 |
| Last season, carries per game | 2.8 |
That is a reduction of 0.8 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.3 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: PIT rates 21.3 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.5 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | -6 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +4.2 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -55.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, RBs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — pedigree-driven (limited evidence). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Bigsby | 2023 | 1.9 | 84% | +61.1% |
| Blake Corum | 2024 | 2.2 | 84% | +34.2% |
| Trey Benson | 2024 | 3.9 | 75% | +12.1% |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2020 | 3.9 | 71% | +6.8% |
| Zamir White | 2022 | 0.6 | 68% | +62.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 3, pick 83 by PIT |
| College | Iowa |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| Height | 6′1″ |
| Weight | 224 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.57s |
His best game was Week 9 against IND — 2.3 PPR on 2 touches and a 2.9% target share, in a game that finished 27-20. His worst was Week 1 against NYJ at -0.2, on 1 touches, final score 34-32. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.2; in the 6 decided by more, 0.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 2.1 points per game. He scored 0.88, 57.7% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 34-32 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| 2 | SEA | 17-31 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| 4 | MIN | 24-21 | 2.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 4.5% | 21% |
| 6 | CLE | 23-9 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 9 | IND | 27-20 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.9% | 8% |
| 10 | LAC | 10-25 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 8% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-12 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 12% |
| 13 | BUF | 7-26 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 14 | BAL | 27-22 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 6% |
| 15 | MIA | 28-15 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 3% |
| Receptions | 1 |
| Targets | 2 |
| Receiving yards | 9 |
| Carries | 28 |
| Rushing yards | 69 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.88 |
| Yards per target | 4.5 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Yards per carry | 2.46 |
| Snap share | 9.1% |
| Target share | 0.74% |
| Air-yards share | -0.9% |
| WOPR | 0.005 |
| RACR | -0.18 |
| Average depth of target | -4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 14 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -5 |
| Total YAC | 14 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.5% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 62.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.03 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.77 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.18 |
The offense threw it 550 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DK Metcalf | 19.04% |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 16.35% |
| Calvin Austin III | 10.58% |
| Jonnu Smith | 10.38% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 10.38% |
| Jaylen Warren | 8.65% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 9 | 2 | 0.81 | 4.5 | 0.82% |
| Mason Rudolph | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | — | 0% |
2 of his 10 games were blowouts, 20.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0.9 in those and 1.18 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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