Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 15.81 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 29.1, usage worth 14.6.
28 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class
| SLEEPER | 30.9 |
| ESPN | 29 |
| YAHOO | 31.6 |
| UNDERDOG | 41.1 |
| CBS | 25 |
| FFA | 32 |
| Goes around | Round 3, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB14 |
| Bye week | 11 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3 picks |
Our board has him at 213.4 points, 13.3 per game — 926 rushing yards, 9.2 rushing TDs, 33.2 catches. That is RB3, 32 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 10.9 points per game to a ceiling of 19.1, with the median at 13.3. Boom rate 44%, bust rate 18%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 29.1 on consensus and our board has him 32. Those agree, so there is no market disagreement to exploit. The question is whether you want the profile, not whether it is mispriced.
Don't pay the round-3 price with the legal/conduct overhang - a personal-conduct suspension (~6-12 weeks) is a live outcome. Let live ADP fall and pounce around round 5, where the risk is acceptably priced and the historical RB drop-off hits anyway. Same player, much better cost.
fade · medium conviction · 2026-06-14Green Bay Packers returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing wr1. Jordan Love at quarterback, Matt LaFleur as head coach, Adam Stenavich calling it. The offense projects to 30.2 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 28.2 rushes.
In: Skyy Moore (wr6), Will Sheppard (wr7), MarShawn Lloyd (rb3), Pierre Strong Jr. (rb4). Out: Romeo Doubs (wr1), Emmanuel Wilson (rb2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Josh Jacobs ← | 67.9% |
| Chris Brooks | 17.4% |
| MarShawn Lloyd | 11.3% |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | 3.4% |
Key additions: Drafted Jager Burton C in the 5th round, extended Jayden Reed on 3 year deal.
Key departures: Rasheed Walker starting O lineman left to Panthers. RB Emmanuel Wilson left, opening up backup and 3rd down back role for another RB to fill the gap. Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets.
Notes: Key departures: Romeo Doubs to New England Patriots, Wicks to Eagles. Massive opportunity for Watson, Golden, and Reed. We will have to see who plays the most on 2 WR sets. Reed landed 3 year 50m extension with packers. Golden could be primed for a breakout. Kraft should be recovered from torn ACL early in the season & Musgrave will fill in if he misses time but no true upside to him. Savion Williams will compete for WR4 but it is unlikely he holds any true value. Jordan Love needs to stay healthy but could be primed for a great 2026 season. Josh Jacobs is showing signs for concern with efficiency & managers need to think about him, however, packers have not brought in any competition so in the meantime he should be ok. The departure of Emmanuel Wilson to Seattle should not be underlooked. He was a highly productive back up RB & could open the door for a healthy Josh Jacobs to return to his peak form briefly. AND another RB will assume a very potentially productive handcuff opportunity.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Jordan Love returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (28.8 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30.2 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 67.9% |
| Projected carries per game | 15.7 |
| Projected carries, full season | 267 |
| Last season, carries per game | 15.8 |
That is a reduction of 0.1 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.2 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: GB rates 24.6 against a league average of 23, 1.6 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -0.7 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +0.2 · neutral |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | Zamir White | +12.9 |
| 2021 | 2 | Peyton Barber | +9.8 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -16.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 2024 | 12.5 | 66% | -1.9% |
| James Conner | 2024 | 15.9 | 63% | -29% |
| Joe Mixon | 2024 | 17.2 | 60% | -47.6% |
| James Conner | 2023 | 15.5 | 57% | +27.8% |
| Najee Harris | 2024 | 12 | 56% | -29.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2019, round 1, pick 24 by OAK |
| College | Alabama |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′10″ |
| Weight | 220 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 17 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.5 |
| Boom rate | 21.6% |
| Bust rate | 20.3% |
| Games missed per season | 0.8 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Toe, Quadricep |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 6 against CIN — 32 PPR on 23 touches and a 19.2% target share, in a game that finished 27-18. His worst was Week 17 against BAL at 1.3, on 5 touches, final score 24-41. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.2; in the 5 decided by more, 15. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.6 points per game. He scored 15.81, 4.2% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 27-13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 66 | 1 | 4.5% | 88% |
| 2 | WAS | 27-18 | 14.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 84 | 1 | 0% | 78% |
| 3 | CLE | 10-13 | 12.4 | 5 | 9 | 44 | 16 | 30 | 0 | 36% | 66% |
| 4 | DAL | 40-40 | 31.7 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 22 | 86 | 2 | 11.1% | 65% |
| 6 | CIN | 27-18 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 18 | 93 | 2 | 19.2% | 79% |
| 7 | ARI | 27-23 | 18.8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 3.6% | 55% |
| 8 | PIT | 35-25 | 13.5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 33 | 1 | 8.6% | 53% |
| 9 | CAR | 13-16 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 | 87 | 1 | 14.3% | 58% |
| 10 | PHI | 7-10 | 19.7 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 21 | 74 | 1 | 18.2% | 74% |
| 11 | NYG | 27-20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 0 | 4% | 22% |
| 13 | DET | 31-24 | 10.1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 83 | 0 | 3.4% | 54% |
| 14 | CHI | 28-21 | 17.2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 8.7% | 72% |
| 15 | DEN | 26-34 | 23.2 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 73 | 2 | 8.3% | 55% |
| 16 | CHI | 16-22 | 4.8 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 8.3% | 39% |
| 17 | BAL | 24-41 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 28% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 44 |
| Receiving yards | 282 |
| Carries | 234 |
| Rushing yards | 929 |
| Touchdowns | 14 |
| Points per game | 15.81 |
| Yards per target | 6.41 |
| Catch rate | 81.82% |
| Yards per carry | 3.97 |
| Snap share | 59.07% |
| Target share | 10.15% |
| Air-yards share | -4.01% |
| WOPR | 0.124 |
| RACR | -1.364 |
| Average depth of target | -0.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.6 |
| Total YAC | 304 |
| Broken tackles | 5 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 100.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.79 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.99 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.3% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 58.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 78.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.18 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.18 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 11.2 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 10 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 16 of 49 |
| Target share | 19 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 47 of 49 |
The offense threw it 489 times. He took 9.57% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Romeo Doubs | 18.48% |
| Christian Watson | 11.96% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 10% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 9.57% |
| Tucker Kraft | 9.57% |
| Matthew Golden | 9.57% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 43 | 16.84 | 6.56 | 10.59% |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0 | 4% |
1 of his 15 games were blowouts, 0.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.3 in those and 16.19 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against SF — 28.6 PPR on 27 touches and a 4.5% target share, in a game that finished 38-10. His worst was Week 3 against TEN at 5.8, on 15 touches, final score 30-14. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17; in the 7 decided by more, 17.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 15.4 points per game. He scored 17.24, 13.7% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 29-34 | 12.4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 84 | 0 | 9.4% | 73% |
| 2 | IND | 16-10 | 13.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 151 | 0 | 0% | 67% |
| 3 | TEN | 30-14 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 0 | 5.3% | 52% |
| 4 | MIN | 29-31 | 11.8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 9 | 51 | 0 | 11.1% | 61% |
| 5 | LA | 24-19 | 16.4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 19 | 73 | 1 | 4% | 75% |
| 6 | ARI | 34-13 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 9.7% | 63% |
| 7 | HOU | 24-22 | 20.2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 12 | 76 | 1 | 15.2% | 67% |
| 8 | JAX | 30-27 | 25.5 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 25 | 127 | 2 | 7.4% | 64% |
| 9 | DET | 14-24 | 12.8 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 95 | 0 | 8.1% | 55% |
| 11 | CHI | 20-19 | 23.4 | 4 | 5 | 58 | 18 | 76 | 1 | 29.4% | 80% |
| 12 | SF | 38-10 | 28.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 106 | 3 | 4.5% | 53% |
| 13 | MIA | 30-17 | 21.7 | 4 | 4 | 74 | 19 | 43 | 1 | 14.3% | 78% |
| 14 | DET | 31-34 | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 66 | 3 | 0% | 80% |
| 15 | SEA | 30-13 | 21.6 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 94 | 1 | 15.4% | 75% |
| 16 | NO | 34-0 | 20.7 | 4 | 4 | 38 | 13 | 69 | 1 | 14.8% | 41% |
| 17 | MIN | 25-27 | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 69 | 1 | 0% | 63% |
| 18 | CHI | 22-24 | 11.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 4% | 31% |
| Receptions | 36 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 342 |
| Carries | 301 |
| Rushing yards | 1,329 |
| Touchdowns | 16 |
| Points per game | 17.24 |
| Yards per target | 7.95 |
| Catch rate | 83.72% |
| Yards per carry | 4.42 |
| Snap share | 63.41% |
| Target share | 8.98% |
| Air-yards share | -1.2% |
| WOPR | 0.126 |
| RACR | -1.905 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.7 |
| Total YAC | 403 |
| Broken tackles | 13 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 97.9 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.19 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.19 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.2% |
| End-zone target share | 4.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 61.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 71.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.26 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 13.09 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 8 of 46 |
| Yards per target | 5 of 46 |
| Target share | 27 of 46 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 46 |
The offense threw it 479 times. He took 9.29% of the targets. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Dontayvion Wicks | 16.41% |
| Jayden Reed | 16.2% |
| Romeo Doubs | 15.55% |
| Tucker Kraft | 15.12% |
| Christian Watson | 11.45% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 9.29% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 14 | 41 | 18.76 | 8.17 | 10.24% |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 2 | 10.17 | 3.5 | 3.1% |
4 of his 17 games were blowouts, 28.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 20.73 in those and 16.99 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 4 against LAC — 27.9 PPR on 28 touches and a 28.9% target share, in a game that finished 17-24. His worst was Week 7 against CHI at 5.1, on 15 touches, final score 12-30. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.1; in the 5 decided by more, 15.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 16.9 points per game. He scored 13.93, 17.5% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.57 expected, a gap of -1.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 17-16 | 9.1 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 48 | 0 | 11.5% | 80% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-38 | 9.9 | 5 | 6 | 51 | 9 | -2 | 0 | 26.1% | 73% |
| 3 | PIT | 18-23 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 62 | 0 | 11.4% | 82% |
| 4 | LAC | 17-24 | 27.9 | 8 | 11 | 81 | 17 | 58 | 1 | 28.9% | 70% |
| 5 | GB | 17-13 | 19.9 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 17.2% | 84% |
| 6 | NE | 21-17 | 11.3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 77 | 0 | 16.1% | 81% |
| 7 | CHI | 12-30 | 5.1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 8.9% | 66% |
| 8 | DET | 14-26 | 16.8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 15 | 61 | 1 | 19% | 76% |
| 9 | NYG | 30-6 | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 98 | 2 | 0% | 78% |
| 10 | NYJ | 16-12 | 12.7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 27 | 116 | 0 | 8% | 83% |
| 11 | MIA | 13-20 | 6.1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 0 | 2.6% | 77% |
| 12 | KC | 17-31 | 22.5 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 110 | 1 | 18.8% | 76% |
| 14 | MIN | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 34 | 0 | 6.9% | 63% |
| Receptions | 37 |
| Targets | 54 |
| Receiving yards | 296 |
| Carries | 233 |
| Rushing yards | 805 |
| Touchdowns | 6 |
| Points per game | 13.93 |
| Yards per target | 5.48 |
| Catch rate | 68.52% |
| Yards per carry | 3.45 |
| Snap share | 76.08% |
| Target share | 13.49% |
| Air-yards share | 0.58% |
| WOPR | 0.206 |
| RACR | -1.186 |
| Average depth of target | 0.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.1 |
| Total YAC | 293 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 66.6 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -3.41 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 9% |
| End-zone target share | 11.8% |
| Red-zone carry share | 57.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 58.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.57 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.57 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 6.47 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 18 of 49 |
| Yards per target | 19 of 49 |
| Target share | 10 of 49 |
| Air-yards share | 8 of 49 |
The offense threw it 557 times. He took 10.17% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 32.96% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 19.96% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 10.17% |
| Michael Mayer | 7.53% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6.97% |
| Tre Tucker | 6.4% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 28 | 13 | 5.54 | 16.88% |
| Aidan O'Connell | 6 | 22 | 16.33 | 6.14 | 10.87% |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 8.9% |
3 of his 13 games were blowouts, 20.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.27 in those and 13.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 12 against SEA — 48.3 PPR on 40 touches and a 19.4% target share, in a game that finished 40-34. His worst was Week 16 against PIT at 6, on 16 touches, final score 10-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18.7; in the 4 decided by more, 21.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.1 points per game. He scored 19.31, 6.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 19-24 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 57 | 0 | 2.9% | 60% |
| 2 | ARI | 23-29 | 9.1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 69 | 0 | 2.6% | 72% |
| 3 | TEN | 22-24 | 14.7 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 13 | 66 | 0 | 12.2% | 64% |
| 4 | DEN | 32-23 | 34.5 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 28 | 144 | 2 | 20% | 89% |
| 5 | KC | 29-30 | 30.3 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 21 | 154 | 1 | 18.5% | 81% |
| 7 | HOU | 38-20 | 36.5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 143 | 3 | 15.4% | 80% |
| 8 | NO | 0-24 | 7.4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 43 | 0 | 10.3% | 55% |
| 9 | JAX | 20-27 | 11.7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 67 | 0 | 8.3% | 69% |
| 10 | IND | 20-25 | 22.6 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 78 | 1 | 21.1% | 79% |
| 11 | DEN | 22-16 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 24 | 109 | 0 | 10.8% | 80% |
| 12 | SEA | 40-34 | 48.3 | 6 | 7 | 74 | 33 | 229 | 2 | 19.4% | 79% |
| 13 | LAC | 27-20 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 144 | 1 | 7.4% | 75% |
| 14 | LA | 16-17 | 19.4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 99 | 1 | 10.5% | 83% |
| 15 | NE | 30-24 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 22 | 93 | 0 | 9.4% | 75% |
| 16 | PIT | 10-13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 44 | 0 | 3.3% | 81% |
| 17 | SF | 34-37 | 19.5 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 17 | 69 | 1 | 15.6% | 67% |
| 18 | KC | 13-31 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 45 | 0 | 8.8% | 71% |
| Receptions | 53 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receiving yards | 400 |
| Carries | 340 |
| Rushing yards | 1,653 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 19.31 |
| Yards per target | 6.25 |
| Catch rate | 82.81% |
| Yards per carry | 4.86 |
| Snap share | 74.12% |
| Target share | 11.56% |
| Air-yards share | 0.35% |
| WOPR | 0.176 |
| RACR | 0.32 |
| Average depth of target | 0.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0.5 |
| Total YAC | 374 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.14 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 76.8% |
| Goal-line carry share | 85.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.69 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.69 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.62 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 3 of 42 |
| Yards per target | 12 of 42 |
| Target share | 12 of 42 |
| Air-yards share | 14 of 42 |
The offense threw it 586 times. He took 11.47% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Davante Adams | 32.26% |
| Mack Hollins | 16.85% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 11.47% |
| Foster Moreau | 9.68% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8.96% |
| Darren Waller | 7.71% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15 | 56 | 20.12 | 6.59 | 11.47% |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 8 | 13.25 | 3.88 | 12.2% |
3 of his 17 games were blowouts, 15.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.97 in those and 18.68 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 13 against WAS — 24 PPR on 22 touches and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 15-17. His worst was Week 10 against KC at 8.6, on 12 touches, final score 14-41. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.2; in the 7 decided by more, 12.6. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 15.6 points per game. He scored 15.07, 2.5% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.43 expected, a gap of -1.4.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 33-27 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 2 | 3.8% | 52% |
| 4 | LAC | 14-28 | 10.7 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 13 | 40 | 0 | 15.6% | 63% |
| 5 | CHI | 9-20 | 16.7 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 48 | 1 | 14.3% | 69% |
| 6 | DEN | 34-24 | 15.2 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 16 | 53 | 1 | 4% | 64% |
| 7 | PHI | 33-22 | 15.8 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 8.8% | 36% |
| 9 | NYG | 16-23 | 13.5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 76 | 0 | 8.7% | 49% |
| 10 | KC | 14-41 | 8.6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 14.7% | 57% |
| 11 | CIN | 13-32 | 11.1 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 28% | 66% |
| 12 | DAL | 36-33 | 19.2 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 87 | 1 | 10.5% | 66% |
| 13 | WAS | 15-17 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 25% | 85% |
| 14 | KC | 9-48 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 14% | 75% |
| 15 | CLE | 16-14 | 12.4 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 52 | 0 | 11.1% | 65% |
| 16 | DEN | 17-13 | 11.4 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 27 | 129 | 0 | 12% | 70% |
| 17 | IND | 23-20 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 63 | 1 | 12.5% | 61% |
| 18 | LAC | 35-32 | 22.4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 132 | 1 | 6.1% | 71% |
| Receptions | 54 |
| Targets | 64 |
| Receiving yards | 348 |
| Carries | 217 |
| Rushing yards | 872 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 15.07 |
| Yards per target | 5.44 |
| Catch rate | 84.38% |
| Yards per carry | 4.02 |
| Snap share | 63.27% |
| Target share | 12.61% |
| Air-yards share | -1.16% |
| WOPR | 0.181 |
| RACR | -3.109 |
| Average depth of target | -0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.8 |
| Total YAC | 391 |
| Broken tackles | 9 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 82.8 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.4 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.15 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 50% |
| Goal-line carry share | 59.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.43 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.43 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 7.64 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 50 |
| Yards per target | 34 of 50 |
| Target share | 10 of 50 |
| Air-yards share | 45 of 50 |
The offense threw it 628 times. He took 10.83% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Hunter Renfrow | 21.66% |
| Darren Waller | 15.74% |
| Zay Jones | 11.84% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 10.83% |
| Bryan Edwards | 9.98% |
| Foster Moreau | 7.45% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 13.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.9 in those and 17.24 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 1 against CAR — 35.9 PPR on 31 touches and a 21.4% target share, in a game that finished 34-30. His worst was Week 12 against ATL at 5.4, on 10 touches, final score 6-43. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 18; in the 7 decided by more, 12.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 16.3 points per game. He scored 15.42, 5.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 34-30 | 35.9 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 25 | 93 | 3 | 21.4% | 78% |
| 2 | NO | 34-24 | 13.5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 27 | 88 | 0 | 8.8% | 66% |
| 3 | NE | 20-36 | 9.3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 71 | 0 | 12.5% | 59% |
| 4 | BUF | 23-30 | 10.3 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 15 | 48 | 0 | 9.3% | 68% |
| 5 | KC | 40-32 | 22.5 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 77 | 2 | 9.7% | 64% |
| 7 | TB | 20-45 | 6.1 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 11.1% | 49% |
| 8 | CLE | 16-6 | 12.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 129 | 0 | 4.5% | 67% |
| 9 | LAC | 31-26 | 13.8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 1 | 4.3% | 57% |
| 10 | DEN | 37-12 | 29.6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 112 | 2 | 18.2% | 60% |
| 11 | KC | 31-35 | 13.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 3.4% | 75% |
| 12 | ATL | 6-43 | 5.4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 8.1% | 60% |
| 14 | IND | 27-44 | 10.4 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 49 | 0 | 11.1% | 43% |
| 15 | LAC | 27-30 | 20.4 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 26 | 76 | 1 | 10% | 68% |
| 16 | MIA | 25-26 | 6.9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 69 | 0 | 6.7% | 50% |
| 17 | DEN | 32-31 | 20.9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 89 | 2 | 2.9% | 55% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 45 |
| Receiving yards | 238 |
| Carries | 273 |
| Rushing yards | 1,065 |
| Touchdowns | 12 |
| Points per game | 15.42 |
| Yards per target | 5.29 |
| Catch rate | 73.33% |
| Yards per carry | 3.9 |
| Snap share | 61.27% |
| Target share | 9.47% |
| Air-yards share | 0.75% |
| WOPR | 0.149 |
| RACR | 5.428 |
| Average depth of target | 0.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 238 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.02 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -2.2 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.1% |
| End-zone target share | 3.4% |
| Red-zone carry share | 65.7% |
| Goal-line carry share | 80.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.6 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.6 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 12.38 |
Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:
| Points per game | 13 of 47 |
| Yards per target | 30 of 47 |
| Target share | 18 of 47 |
| Air-yards share | 19 of 47 |
The offense threw it 551 times. He took 8.89% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Darren Waller | 28.66% |
| Nelson Agholor | 16.21% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 15.22% |
| Josh Jacobs ← | 8.89% |
| Henry Ruggs | 8.5% |
| Jalen Richard | 4.55% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 14 | 42 | 15.06 | 4.76 | 9.43% |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 3 | 20.4 | 12.67 | 10% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 22.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.88 in those and 18.01 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Josh Jacobs →