Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.84 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 197.1, usage worth 9.1.
22 years old · 1 season of experience · 2025 draft class
| SLEEPER | 224.3 |
| ESPN | 169.9 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.7 |
| FFA | 253 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 5 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE73 |
| ADP standard deviation | 38.5 picks |
Our board has him at 66.7 points, 4.4 per game — 29.1 catches, 274 yards, 1.7 TDs. That is TE5, 238 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.9 points per game to a ceiling of 8.6, with the median at 4.4. Boom rate 95%, bust rate 80%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 197.1 on consensus and our board has him 238. We rank him 40.9 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.
In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 9.3%, with a bear case of 8.5% and a bull case of 12% and a full range of 8.2% to 14.2%. That comes from 13 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Garrett Wilson | 22.9% |
| Omar Cooper Jr | 16.3% |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 14% |
| Breece Hall | 10.8% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 10.1% |
| Mason Taylor ← | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.
Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall
Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.
Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.
13 historical comps for TEs age ~22, prior share 17.2%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 9.8%, p25-p75 [8.3%, 14.9%], tails [7.8%, 18.9%]. Closest comps: Juwan Johnson 2023→2024 (NO: 14.2%→13.6%); Jordan Akins 2020→2021 (HOU: 12.4%→8.6%); Michael Mayer 2023→2024 (LV: 10.9%→8.1%).
self-anchored 30% to own 17.2% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 9.8%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Stone Smartt | +4.1 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -23.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irv Smith | 2020 | 7.6 | 69% | -4.4% |
| Michael Mayer | 2023 | 5.5 | 66% | -38.2% |
| Trey McBride | 2023 | 10.7 | 64% | +29% |
| Cole Kmet | 2021 | 7.1 | 63% | +12.8% |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2021 | 9.5 | 63% | -2.4% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2025, round 2, pick 42 by NYJ |
| College | LSU |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 251 lb |
His best game was Week 5 against DAL — 17.7 PPR on 12 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 22-37. His worst was Week 6 against DEN at 1.2, on 1 targets, final score 11-13. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.9; in the 5 decided by more, 8.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.1 points per game. He scored 6.84, 24.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 32-34 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 4.8% | 88% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-30 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9.5% | 72% |
| 3 | TB | 27-29 | 5.8 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 17.1% | 74% |
| 4 | MIA | 21-27 | 11.5 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 | 25.9% | 81% |
| 5 | DAL | 22-37 | 17.7 | 9 | 12 | 67 | 0 | 27.3% | 84% |
| 6 | DEN | 11-13 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.3% | 96% |
| 7 | CAR | 6-13 | 6.1 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 16.1% | 93% |
| 8 | CIN | 39-38 | 14.4 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 1 | 26.7% | 76% |
| 10 | CLE | 27-20 | 1.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 18.2% | 78% |
| 11 | NE | 14-27 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 15.4% | 75% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-23 | 5.1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 18.5% | 88% |
| 13 | ATL | 27-24 | 4.1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 12.9% | 83% |
| 14 | MIA | 10-34 | 10.1 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 25% | 66% |
| Receptions | 44 |
| Targets | 65 |
| Receiving yards | 369 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 6.84 |
| Yards per target | 5.68 |
| Catch rate | 67.69% |
| Snap share | 81.08% |
| Target share | 17.21% |
| Air-yards share | 13.8% |
| WOPR | 0.355 |
| RACR | 0.964 |
| Average depth of target | 5.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.4 |
| Total YAC | 133 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 80.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.74 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.3% |
| End-zone target share | 11.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.83 |
The offense threw it 493 times. He took 14.1% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mason Taylor ← | 14.1% |
| Garrett Wilson | 12.8% |
| Adonai Mitchell | 12.58% |
| Breece Hall | 10.41% |
| John Metchie III | 9.54% |
| Isaiah Williams | 7.81% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 7 | 35 | 8.03 | 6.34 | 17.8% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 22 | 4.52 | 4.36 | 14.82% |
| Brady Cook | 1 | 8 | 10.1 | 6.38 | 25% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 13.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.8 in those and 5.94 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Mason Taylor →