RB · NYJ · GWTTKB

Breece Hall — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 12.98 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 34.7, usage worth 14.3.

25 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 34.7
Consensus across 4 books, standard deviation 3.1, 6.1 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on espn, priciest on underdog.
SLEEPER32.5
ESPN37.8
YAHOO36.9
UNDERDOG28.7
CBS31.7
FFA27

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 3, pick 11 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB16
Bye week13
ADP standard deviation3.1 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 229.8 points, 14.4 per game — 980 rushing yards, 5.8 rushing TDs, 44 catches. That is RB3, 27 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 13.1 points per game to a ceiling of 19.2, with the median at 14.4. Boom rate 33%, bust rate 9%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 34.7 on consensus and our board has him 27. We rank him 7.7 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.

Our written view

Good round-3/4 value as the END of the trustworthy-RB tier - take the last guy before the cliff. Inherent risk is Jets offense quality, but the volume is there. Don't pair with Garrett Wilson early (negative correlation).

buy · medium conviction · 2026-06-14

The offense he plays in, 2026

New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.

In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Breece Hall 62.2%
Braelon Allen22.7%
Isaiah Davis10.7%
Kene Nwangwu4.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.

Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall

Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.

Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share62.2%
Projected carries per game13.6
Projected carries, full season231
Last season, carries per game15.2

That is a reduction of 1.6 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.6 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-3.3 · harder
Weeks 1–6-5.9 · harder
Weeks 12–17-3.1 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)-2 · harder

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

Read the full Breece Hall study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -2.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Kenneth Walker202416.566%+10.4%
Austin Ekeler202313.259%-14.7%
Rhamondre Stevenson202411.759%+11.4%
Ezekiel Elliott202114.857%-15.8%
David Montgomery20211557%-19.7%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,0006,0008,0002023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2022-03 to 2026-07. Down 9% across the series, peaking at 8,253.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2022, round 2, pick 36 by NYJ
CollegeIowa St.
Age at draft21
Height5′11″
Weight217 lb
40-yard dash4.39s
Vertical40″
Broad jump126″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game16
Week-to-week variation0.6
Boom rate27.3%
Bust rate18.2%
Games missed per season0.5
Injury historyKnee
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score0.26

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · NYJ · 16 games

His best game was Week 8 against CIN — 32.86 PPR on 21 touches and a 10% target share, in a game that finished 39-38. His worst was Week 14 against MIA at 4.3, on 15 touches, final score 10-34. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 15.4; in the 8 decided by more, 10.6. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 14.3 points per game. He scored 12.98, 9.4% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.98 expected, a gap of -2.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1PIT32-3416.5243819107019%58%
2BUF10-305.82391029014.3%64%
3TB27-299.24631921017.1%55%
4MIA21-2716.156301481022.2%63%
5DAL22-3717.5454214113011.4%62%
6DEN11-135.9000225900%74%
7CAR6-137.22314113809.7%54%
8CIN39-3832.86231418133310%56%
10CLE27-2019.51142218319.1%71%
11NE14-278.4226145807.7%72%
12BAL10-2313.944751644014.8%71%
13ATL27-2415.6228196816.5%88%
14MIA10-344.3010144303.1%76%
15JAX20-485.72214122306.3%54%
16NO6-298.3239165408.8%64%
17NE10-4220.923181411119.4%48%

Production

Receptions36
Targets48
Receiving yards350
Carries243
Rushing yards1,065
Touchdowns6
Points per game12.98
Yards per target7.29
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry4.38

Role

Snap share64.38%
Target share10.59%
Air-yards share-0.75%
WOPR0.154
RACR-3.919

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.4
Yards after catch per reception8.9
Yards before catch per reception0.8
Total YAC321
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted101.9
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.54
Rushing EPA per game-1.39

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share16.1%
End-zone target share11.1%
Red-zone carry share40%
Goal-line carry share44.4%
Expected receiving TDs1.98
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-1.98
Expected rushing TDs3.02

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game21 of 49
Yards per target8 of 49
Target share17 of 49
Air-yards share31 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 493 times. He took 10.41% of the targets. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mason Taylor14.1%
Garrett Wilson12.8%
Adonai Mitchell12.58%
Breece Hall 10.41%
John Metchie III9.54%
Isaiah Williams7.81%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Justin Fields72116.688.1911.34%
Tyrod Taylor51810.347.6112.48%
Brady Cook499.84.566.9%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 21.7% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9 in those and 15.36 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · NYJ · 16 games

His best game was Week 11 against IND — 31.1 PPR on 23 touches and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 27-28. His worst was Week 4 against DEN at 3.8, on 15 touches, final score 9-10. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.2; in the 7 decided by more, 16.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 15.8 points per game. He scored 15.06, 4.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1SF19-3218.356391654120.7%82%
2TEN24-1724.478521462127.6%72%
3NE24-318.345291654114.7%71%
4DEN9-103.82514104012.2%69%
5MIN17-236.7341492307.8%74%
6BUF20-2321.9565618113017.6%87%
7PIT15-3726.1691031238123.1%82%
8NE22-259.91391680012%74%
9HOU21-1310.524111574012.5%76%
10ARI6-3112.344311052012.1%81%
11IND27-2831.177431678224.1%84%
13SEA21-266010126002.6%62%
15JAX32-2513.1222193017.1%48%
16LA9-191456381452014.3%77%
17BUF14-406.3118104503.2%49%
18MIA32-2018.235151257114.3%70%

Production

Receptions57
Targets76
Receiving yards483
Carries209
Rushing yards876
Touchdowns8
Points per game15.06
Yards per target6.36
Catch rate75%
Yards per carry4.19

Role

Snap share72.38%
Target share14.12%
Air-yards share0.16%
WOPR0.214
RACR1.383

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.2
Yards after catch per reception8.7
Yards before catch per reception-0.2
Total YAC496
Broken tackles6
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted104.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.09
Rushing EPA per game-1.3

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share10%
End-zone target share2.7%
Red-zone carry share54.8%
Goal-line carry share80%
Expected receiving TDs1.96
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.96
Expected rushing TDs4.17

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game17 of 46
Yards per target20 of 46
Target share3 of 46
Air-yards share11 of 46

Who else ate

The offense threw it 607 times. He took 12.9% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson25.98%
Davante Adams19.35%
Breece Hall 12.9%
Tyler Conklin12.22%
Allen Lazard10.36%
Jeremy Ruckert4.75%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 26.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.75 in those and 14.16 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · NYJ · 17 games

His best game was Week 16 against WAS — 43.1 PPR on 36 touches and a 35.6% target share, in a game that finished 30-28. His worst was Week 2 against DAL at 0.9, on 6 touches, final score 10-30. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 7 times and came in under 8 points 3 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 16.9; in the 9 decided by more, 17.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 16.2 points per game. He scored 17.09, 5.5% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF22-1615.7122010127011.1%31%
2DAL10-300.90204908%34%
3NE10-153.7129121807.1%49%
4KC20-239.93413656010.3%44%
5DEN31-2128.4331722177111.5%52%
6PHI20-1420.355541239115.2%66%
8NYG13-1021.369761217126.5%64%
9LAC6-27104410165008.3%60%
10LV12-1610.53347132808.1%70%
11BUF6-3218.356501023121.4%63%
12MIA13-3411.97924725025%66%
13ATL8-1310.568291316022.2%68%
14HOU30-626.689861040125.7%62%
15MIA0-302.812661206.1%40%
16WAS30-2843.11216962095235.6%77%
17CLE20-3727.699421384120.5%71%
18NE17-329221237178111.1%89%

Production

Receptions76
Targets95
Receiving yards591
Carries223
Rushing yards994
Touchdowns9
Points per game17.09
Yards per target6.22
Catch rate80%
Yards per carry4.46

Role

Snap share59.18%
Target share16.1%
Air-yards share-0.88%
WOPR0.235
RACR-1.586

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.5
Yards after catch per reception8.5
Yards before catch per reception-0.8
Total YAC649
Broken tackles10
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted102.2
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game0.36
Rushing EPA per game-1.22

Scoring position

Red-zone targets7
Red-zone target share12.3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share60%
Goal-line carry share33.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.57
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.43
Expected rushing TDs2.17

Where that ranked

Against everyone in the 100+ carries pool that season:

Points per game6 of 49
Yards per target12 of 49
Target share5 of 49
Air-yards share29 of 49

Who else ate

The offense threw it 600 times. He took 16.99% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson30.05%
Breece Hall 16.99%
Tyler Conklin15.56%
Allen Lazard8.77%
Xavier Gipson6.8%
Jeremy Ruckert3.94%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson114915.057.813.93%
Trevor Siemian42925.635.3818.32%
Tim Boyle21711.23.1223.6%

Blowouts against close games

7 of his 17 games were blowouts, 33.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 14.01 in those and 16.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · NYJ · 7 games

His best game was Week 5 against MIA — 27.7 PPR on 20 touches and a 9.5% target share, in a game that finished 40-17. His worst was Week 1 against BAL at 10.1, on 15 touches, final score 9-24. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14; in the 4 decided by more, 18.3. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 13.8 points per game. He scored 16.44, 19.4% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BAL9-2410.16938623015.8%45%
2CLE31-3013111075012.3%27%
3CIN12-2715.261153839022.9%51%
4PIT24-2015.826121766118.2%66%
5MIA40-1727.722100189719.5%69%
6GB27-1020.122520116111.8%67%
7DEN16-913.200047210%20%

Production

Receptions19
Targets31
Receiving yards218
Carries80
Rushing yards463
Touchdowns5
Points per game16.44
Yards per target7.03
Catch rate61.29%
Yards per carry5.79

Role

Snap share49.29%
Target share11.5%
Air-yards share5.4%
WOPR0.21
RACR1.43

Efficiency

Average depth of target4.7
Yards after catch per reception9
Yards before catch per reception2.5
Total YAC171
Broken tackles2
Drop rate0.2%
Passer rating when targeted79.8
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.21
Rushing EPA per game1.98

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share7.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share23.8%
Goal-line carry share35%
Expected receiving TDs0.98
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.02
Expected rushing TDs3.58

Who else ate

The offense threw it 625 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Garrett Wilson25.04%
Tyler Conklin14.82%
Elijah Moore11.07%
Corey Davis10.9%
Michael Carter9.2%
Braxton Berrios5.45%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Zach Wilson41019.211.79.88%
Joe Flacco32112.774.8113.67%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 7 games were blowouts, 41.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 23.9 in those and 14 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Breece Hall →
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