Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 5.49 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 193, usage worth 7.9.
23 years old · 2 seasons of experience · 2024 draft class
| SLEEPER | 216.4 |
| ESPN | 169.5 |
| UNDERDOG | 172 |
| FFA | 164 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 1 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR150 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 33.2 picks |
Our board has him at 124.5 points, 7.6 per game — 46.1 catches, 586 yards, 3.3 TDs. That is WR6, 161 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 2.7 points per game to a ceiling of 20.5, with the median at 7.6. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 63%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 193 on consensus and our board has him 161. We rank him 32 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
buried behind Garrett Wilson + Omar Cooper Jr. on a bad offense (Jets); "one injury away" doesn't matter on a bad offense
sell · high conviction · 2026-08New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.
In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 10.1%, with a bear case of 8.7% and a bull case of 11.3% and a full range of 8.5% to 12.6%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Garrett Wilson | 22.9% |
| Omar Cooper Jr | 16.3% |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 14% |
| Breece Hall | 10.8% |
| Adonai Mitchell ← | 10.1% |
| Mason Taylor | 9.3% |
What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.
Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall
Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.
Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.
25 historical comps for WRs age ~23, prior share 13.8%, same team, OC change, QB change. Distribution: median 11.5%, p25-p75 [8.2%, 14.1%], tails [7.8%, 16.9%]. Closest comps: Van Jefferson 2022→2023 (LA: 14.7%→9.5%); Jonathan Mingo 2023→2024 (CAR: 18.5%→8.8%); Terrace Marshall 2022→2023 (CAR: 12.2%→11.8%).
self-anchored 45% to own 13.8% role (2yr), 55% to comp median 11.5%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -3.2 · harder |
| Weeks 1–6 | +2.9 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -5 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -7.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Read the full Adonai Mitchell study →Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +2.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall | 2022 | 6.4 | 89% | -15.6% |
| John Metchie III | 2024 | 5.5 | 74% | +13.2% |
| Terrace Marshall | 2023 | 4.1 | 69% | -11.3% |
| Nico Collins | 2021 | 6 | 69% | +19.6% |
| Alec Pierce | 2022 | 7 | 68% | -5.2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 3 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2024, round 2, pick 52 by IND |
| College | Texas |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.34s |
| Vertical | 39.5″ |
| Broad jump | 136″ |
| Career PPR per game | 4.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 14.8% |
| Bust rate | 37% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.16 |
His best game was Week 13 against ATL — 24.2 PPR on 12 targets and a 38.7% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 18 against BUF at 0, on 3 targets, final score 8-35. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.1; in the 12 decided by more, 4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 7.9 points per game. He scored 5.49, 30.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 33-8 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 6.9% | 21% |
| 2 | DEN | 29-28 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12.1% | 10% |
| 3 | TEN | 41-20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 42% |
| 4 | LA | 20-27 | 10.6 | 3 | 4 | 96 | 0 | 12.5% | 89% |
| 5 | LV | 40-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 9% |
| 7 | LAC | 38-24 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.1% | 8% |
| 8 | TEN | 38-14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6% | 17% |
| 9 | PIT | 20-27 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.1% | 5% |
| 11 | NE | 14-27 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 23.1% | 49% |
| 12 | BAL | 10-23 | 6.2 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 25.9% | 85% |
| 13 | ATL | 27-24 | 24.2 | 8 | 12 | 102 | 1 | 38.7% | 86% |
| 14 | MIA | 10-34 | 3.4 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 18.8% | 91% |
| 15 | JAX | 20-48 | 17.4 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 1 | 28.1% | 79% |
| 16 | NO | 6-29 | 7.3 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 17.6% | 86% |
| 17 | NE | 10-42 | 5.2 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 0 | 28.1% | 81% |
| 18 | BUF | 8-35 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13.6% | 52% |
| Receptions | 33 |
| Targets | 74 |
| Receiving yards | 453 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | -4 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 5.49 |
| Yards per target | 6.12 |
| Catch rate | 44.59% |
| Yards per carry | -4 |
| Snap share | 50.63% |
| Target share | 15.34% |
| Air-yards share | 30.29% |
| WOPR | 0.441 |
| RACR | 0.498 |
| Average depth of target | 14.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.3 |
| Total YAC | 29 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 40.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -1.01 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.3% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.48 |
The offense threw it 546 times. 4 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Warren | 21.21% |
| Michael Pittman | 21.02% |
| Josh Downs | 16.67% |
| Alec Pierce | 15.91% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 10.42% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3.79% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 10 | 35 | 5.26 | 8.46 | 11.61% |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 24 | 9.97 | 5.13 | 24.6% |
| Riley Leonard | 2 | 9 | 1.7 | 2.67 | 16.2% |
| unknown | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1.67 | 23.1% |
9 of his 16 games were blowouts, 42.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.16 in those and 10.13 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 10 against BUF — 13.1 PPR on 6 targets and a 17.1% target share, in a game that finished 20-30. His worst was Week 15 against DEN at -3, on 4 targets, final score 13-31. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 13 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.9; in the 4 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.7 points per game. He scored 3.16, 44.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.34 expected, a gap of -1.3.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 27-29 | 1.2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 26.3% | 64% |
| 2 | GB | 10-16 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 12.9% | 59% |
| 3 | CHI | 21-16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 13% |
| 4 | PIT | 27-24 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10.7% | 20% |
| 5 | JAX | 34-37 | 9.16 | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 | 15.6% | 27% |
| 6 | TEN | 20-17 | 2.9 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% | 21% |
| 7 | MIA | 16-10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 13.6% | 23% |
| 8 | HOU | 20-23 | 1.9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 12.9% | 20% |
| 9 | MIN | 13-21 | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.7% | 9% |
| 10 | BUF | 20-30 | 13.1 | 6 | 6 | 71 | 0 | 17.1% | 94% |
| 11 | NYJ | 28-27 | 4.5 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 7.1% | 17% |
| 12 | DET | 6-24 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 12% | 22% |
| 13 | NE | 25-24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 58% |
| 15 | DEN | 13-31 | -3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11.1% | 49% |
| 16 | TEN | 38-30 | 4.6 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 9.1% | 89% |
| 17 | NYG | 33-45 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 10.8% | 9% |
| 18 | JAX | 26-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 21% |
| Receptions | 23 |
| Targets | 55 |
| Receiving yards | 312 |
| Carries | 4 |
| Rushing yards | 6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 3.16 |
| Yards per target | 5.67 |
| Catch rate | 41.82% |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 36.18% |
| Target share | 11.21% |
| Air-yards share | 15.49% |
| WOPR | 0.277 |
| RACR | 0.724 |
| Average depth of target | 14.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.2 |
| Total YAC | 101 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 60.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.29 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.52 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 10.9% |
| End-zone target share | 19.2% |
| Red-zone carry share | 2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.34 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.34 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.08 |
The offense threw it 513 times. He took 11.2% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Michael Pittman | 22.61% |
| Josh Downs | 21.79% |
| Alec Pierce | 14.05% |
| Adonai Mitchell ← | 11.2% |
| Jonathan Taylor | 6.31% |
| Kylen Granson | 6.31% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 10 | 29 | 2.02 | 5.17 | 11.89% |
| Joe Flacco | 7 | 26 | 4.79 | 6.23 | 10.23% |
2 of his 17 games were blowouts, -1.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged -0.5 in those and 2.88 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Adonai Mitchell →