Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.91 points per game in 2025, usage worth 14.
37 years old · 15 seasons of experience · 2011 draft class
Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
The offense he plays in, 2026
New York Jets returns 3 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1, te1, oc. Geno Smith at quarterback, Aaron Glenn as head coach, Frank Reich calling it. The offense projects to 32.8 pass attempts a game at low confidence and 26.6 rushes.
In: Geno Smith (qb), Cade Klubnik (qb2), Omar Cooper Jr (wr2), Irvin Charles (wr5), Mac Dalena (wr7), Kenyon Sadiq (te1). Out: Justin Fields (qb), John Metchie III (wr3), Tyler Johnson (wr4), Jeremy Ruckert (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
Garrett Wilson
22.9%
Omar Cooper Jr
16.3%
Kenyon Sadiq
14%
Breece Hall
10.8%
Adonai Mitchell
10.1%
Mason Taylor
9.3%
Our written view on this offense in 2026
What the offense looks like: This is a tough offense for fantasy managers to be heavily invested in. An even worse spot for a rookie to be drafted to. Kenyon Sadiq has to be upset. Not only that, but he has to share the TE room with Mason Taylor, who was looking like he could become a top 15 TE. For Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, realistically for a MASSIVE value spike, they both need to be traded. It will be tough to produce in NY.
Key additions: QB Geno Smith traded to Jets from Raiders. QB Cade Klubnik drafted 5th round, Kenyon Sadiq drafted 1st round 16th overall. WR Omar Cooper Jr. drafted 1st round 30th overall
Key departures: Justin Fields QB traded to Chiefs.
Notes: Fields traded. Jets bring in Geno Smith from Raiders who was AWFUL in Vegas last year. Could provide decent opportunity for Garrett Wilson (elite WR needs better QB play). Adonai Mitchell likely to play WR3 behind Omar Cooper Jr (round 1 pick). Will have to monitor closely to see. Drafted Kenyon Sadiq Round 1 TE (high ceiling but may take time to break out). Mason Taylor will likely be TE2 behind Sadiq but could be starter at beginning of season. Breece Hall lands HUGE extension 3 year $45 million deal. Keeping him in New York through 2028. The talent is there, but the offense has to be able to score for Breece to be productive.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Geno Smith, avg 31.9 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.8 att/g; New OC Frank Reich — pass rate and tempo may shift.
How the quarterback projection was built
Base case 106.7 PPR points, with a bear case of 16.2 and a bull case of 245.3, and a comp mean of 131.3. The model puts 25% probability on him beating this and 75% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
Comparable season
What he actually scored
Distance
Jay Cutler 2012
168.6
0.3
Andy Dalton 2014
244.2
0.4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2012
167.7
0.4
Matt Hasselbeck 2011
76.5
0.4
Chad Henne 2010
59.9
0.4
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 3th percentile and his value in the 7th, which the engine reads as in line. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -13.4% over the following year, across 81 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: NYJ rates 18.8 against a league average of 23, 4.2 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
2026 schedule
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
Full season
-3.2 · harder
Weeks 1–6
+2.9 · easier
Weeks 12–17
-5 · harder
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)
-7.6 · harder
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
What happened when he missed time
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
Season
Games missed
Main beneficiary
Their PPR gain
2025
2
Justin Fields
+16.9
Dynasty context not redraft
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle
His dynasty value has moved +78.9% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, QBs crash the following year 52% of the time (hold 48%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 52% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
Player
Season
Their PPG
Similarity
Next year
Jacoby Brissett
2022
12
58%
-8.9%
Mason Rudolph
2024
12
58%
+15.9%
Jimmy Garoppolo
2023
9.2
57%
-61.6%
Gardner Minshew
2024
9.6
56%
-20.8%
Gardner Minshew
2023
12.3
56%
-9.5%
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 4 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
Four years of dynasty value
Monthly superflex value, 2020-06 to 2026-07. Down 53% across the series, peaking at 1,603.
The player
Draft capital and athletic profile
Height
6′1″
Weight
217 lb
40-yard dash
4.47s
Vertical
37.5″
Broad jump
126″
3-cone
6.78s
Shuttle
4.09s
The record, season by season
2025 · NYJ · 6 games
His best game was Week 13 against ATL — 21.28 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 27-24. His worst was Week 14 against MIA at -1.76, on 0 targets, final score 10-34. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 13.4; in the 3 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was live.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 14 points per game. He scored 9.91, 29% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
2
BUF
10-30
8.34
0
3
21
1
0%
38%
3
TB
27-29
16.68
0
8
48
2
0%
100%
7
CAR
6-13
2.14
0
3
11
0
0%
54%
12
BAL
10-23
12.78
0
5
19
1
0%
100%
13
ATL
27-24
21.28
0
8
44
2
0%
100%
14
MIA
10-34
-1.76
0
0
0
0
0%
10%
Production
Carries
27
Rushing yards
143
Touchdowns
6
Points per game
9.91
Yards per carry
5.3
Role
Snap share
67%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
0.9
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
5%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.23
Who else ate
The offense threw it 493 times. 0 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Mason Taylor
14.1%
Garrett Wilson
12.8%
Adonai Mitchell
12.58%
Breece Hall
10.41%
John Metchie III
9.54%
Isaiah Williams
7.81%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Tyrod Taylor
5
0
12.24
—
0%
Brady Cook
1
0
-1.76
—
0%
Blowouts against close games
2 of his 6 games were blowouts, 11.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.29 in those and 13.37 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2024 · NYJ · 2 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 6.1 points per game. He scored 10.03, 64.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
SF
19-32
6.14
0
1
0%
25%
17
BUF
14-40
13.92
0
2
0%
37%
Production
Carries
3
Rushing yards
13
Touchdowns
3
Points per game
10.03
Yards per carry
4.33
Role
Snap share
31%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
-0.34
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
2.4%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.14
Who else ate
The offense threw it 607 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Garrett Wilson
25.98%
Davante Adams
19.35%
Breece Hall
12.9%
Tyler Conklin
12.22%
Allen Lazard
10.36%
Jeremy Ruckert
4.75%
2023 · NYG · 10 games
His best game was Week 7 against WAS — 21.66 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 14-7. His worst was Week 3 against SF at 0.2, on 0 targets, final score 12-30. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.8; in the 5 decided by more, 4.7. He scored more when the game was live.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 10.5 points per game. He scored 8.73, 16.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
DAL
0-40
0.24
0
0
0
0
0%
4%
3
SF
12-30
0.2
0
1
2
0
0%
6%
5
MIA
16-31
4.84
0
3
14
0
0%
32%
6
BUF
9-14
10.4
0
5
24
0
0%
100%
7
WAS
14-7
21.66
0
8
25
2
0%
100%
8
NYJ
10-13
3.62
0
5
33
0
0%
33%
15
NO
6-24
0.52
0
0
0
0
0%
6%
16
PHI
25-33
9.42
0
2
21
1
0%
49%
17
LA
25-26
18.76
0
6
40
1
0%
100%
18
PHI
27-10
17.68
0
8
38
1
0%
94%
Production
Carries
38
Rushing yards
197
Touchdowns
5
Points per game
8.73
Yards per carry
5.18
Role
Snap share
52.4%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
-0.04
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
4.3%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.15
Who else ate
The offense threw it 518 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Darius Slayton
16.32%
Wan'Dale Robinson
16.12%
Darren Waller
15.29%
Saquon Barkley
12.4%
Jalin Hyatt
8.26%
Isaiah Hodgins
6.82%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Tyrod Taylor
6
0
13.59
—
0%
Daniel Jones
3
0
1.76
—
0%
Tommy DeVito
1
0
0.52
—
0%
Blowouts against close games
4 of his 10 games were blowouts, 21.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.66 in those and 12.77 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2022 · NYG · 2 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 5.66, 59.4% above it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
4
CHI
20-12
1.44
0
3
30
0
0%
18%
14
PHI
22-48
9.88
0
2
40
1
0%
19%
Production
Carries
5
Rushing yards
70
Touchdowns
1
Points per game
5.66
Yards per carry
14
Role
Snap share
18.5%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
4.57
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0
Who else ate
The offense threw it 520 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
Saquon Barkley
15.54%
Darius Slayton
14.52%
Richie James
14.31%
Isaiah Hodgins
8.59%
Daniel Bellinger
7.16%
Wan'Dale Robinson
6.34%
Blowouts against close games
1 of his 2 games were blowouts, 87.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.88 in those and 1.44 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
2021 · HOU · 6 games
His best game was Week 1 against JAX — 23.64 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 37-21. His worst was Week 13 against IND at 1.3, on 0 targets, final score 0-31. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 2 times.
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 13.5 points per game. He scored 13.62, 0.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
JAX
37-21
23.64
0
4
40
2
0%
100%
2
CLE
21-31
16.5
0
1
15
2
0%
43%
9
MIA
9-17
5.9
0
3
23
0
0%
100%
11
TEN
22-13
19.08
0
6
28
2
0%
100%
12
NYJ
14-21
15.32
0
2
30
2
0%
100%
13
IND
0-31
1.3
0
3
15
0
0%
56%
Production
Carries
19
Rushing yards
151
Touchdowns
8
Points per game
13.62
Yards per carry
7.95
Role
Snap share
83.17%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
2.27
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Red-zone carry share
7.4%
Goal-line carry share
6.7%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0.67
Who else ate
The offense threw it 546 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
Brandin Cooks
25.62%
Nico Collins
11.47%
David Johnson
8.03%
Danny Amendola
7.27%
Chris Conley
7.07%
Pharaoh Brown
6.5%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
QB
Games
Targets
PPG
Y/T
Tgt%
Tyrod Taylor
4
0
15.98
—
0%
Davis Mills
2
0
8.9
—
0%
Blowouts against close games
1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 1.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.3 in those and 10.61 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
2020 · LAC · 2 games
Earned against scored
His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 4.51, 52% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
Wk
Opp
Score
PPR
Yds
Car
Rush
TD
Tgt%
Snap%
1
CIN
16-13
9.02
0
6
7
0
0%
100%
9
LV
26-31
0
0
0
0
0
0%
1%
Production
Carries
6
Rushing yards
7
Touchdowns
0
Points per game
4.51
Yards per carry
1.17
Role
Snap share
50.5%
Target share
0%
Air-yards share
0%
Efficiency
Receiving EPA per game
0
Rushing EPA per game
-3.23
Scoring position
Red-zone targets
0
Red-zone target share
0%
End-zone target share
0%
Expected receiving TDs
0
Actual receiving TDs
0
Receiving TD luck
0
Expected rushing TDs
0
Who else ate
The offense threw it 627 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
Keenan Allen
24.34%
Hunter Henry
15.4%
Mike Williams
14.07%
Austin Ekeler
10.76%
Jalen Guyton
9.11%
Kalen Ballage
4.47%
By quarterback
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.