Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 201.8, usage worth 5.
26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class
| SLEEPER | 232.7 |
| ESPN | 170.8 |
| UNDERDOG | 201 |
| FFA | 239 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 10 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR161 |
| ADP standard deviation | 43.8 picks |
Our board has him at 89.4 points, 5.5 per game — 29.4 catches, 390 yards, 3.5 TDs. That is WR6, 228 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 3.7 points per game to a ceiling of 10.3, with the median at 5.5. Boom rate 87%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 201.8 on consensus and our board has him 228. We rank him 26.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.1%, with a bear case of 10.3% and a bull case of 12.1% and a full range of 9.1% to 13.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 13.6%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 12.2%, p25-p75 [9.3%, 14.2%], tails [6.0%, 18.7%]. Closest comps: Tutu Atwell 2023→2024 (LA: 13.2%→13.2%); Tre'Quan Smith 2021→2022 (NO: 14.2%→9.3%); Allen Lazard 2023→2024 (NYJ: 14.8%→14.2%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)
self-anchored 58% to own 13.6% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 12.2%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | James Proche | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | Devontez Walker | +0.5 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -26.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Moore | 2024 | 7.1 | 73% | -32.2% |
| Van Jefferson | 2024 | 4.2 | 67% | +1.9% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2023 | 8.9 | 66% | +55.8% |
| D.J. Chark | 2023 | 8.3 | 65% | -24.1% |
| Michael Gallup | 2022 | 7.5 | 61% | -19.5% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2021, round 1, pick 27 by BAL |
| College | Minnesota |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′0″ |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.39s |
| Vertical | 36″ |
| Broad jump | 123″ |
| Career PPR per game | 7.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 14.9% |
| Bust rate | 38.3% |
| Games missed per season | 1.2 |
| Injury history | Foot, Hamstring, Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | -0.12 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 3 against DET — 17.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 30-38. His worst was Week 16 against NE at 0, on 2 targets, final score 24-28. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 8 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 4.26, 14.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 21.1% | 73% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 3.5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 14.3% | 59% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 17.3 | 5 | 7 | 63 | 1 | 25% | 60% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 3.4 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 6.7% | 80% |
| 5 | HOU | 10-44 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15% | 81% |
| 6 | LA | 3-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3.1% | 56% |
| 8 | CHI | 30-16 | 7.1 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 18.2% | 79% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 9.3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 17.4% | 71% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7.1% | 61% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 73% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9.1% | 86% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | 69% |
| 17 | GB | 41-24 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | 53% |
| Receptions | 19 |
| Targets | 38 |
| Receiving yards | 224 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.26 |
| Yards per target | 5.89 |
| Catch rate | 50% |
| Snap share | 69.31% |
| Target share | 11.95% |
| Air-yards share | 17.46% |
| WOPR | 0.302 |
| RACR | 0.708 |
| Average depth of target | 12.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 2.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.7 |
| Total YAC | 39 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 74.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.13 |
| Red-zone targets | 8 |
| Red-zone target share | 14.8% |
| End-zone target share | 14.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.83 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.17 |
The offense threw it 422 times. He took 9.34% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 29 | 4.98 | 5.45 | 12.67% |
| Cooper Rush | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 2 | 9.05% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 5 | 4.4 | 11.6 | 11.6% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 32.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.98 in those and 5.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against NYG — 23 PPR on 5 targets and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 35-14. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 2.2, on 1 targets, final score 31-2. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 7 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 10.91, 44% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 2.4 expected, a gap of 5.6.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 7.3 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 | 12.5% | 84% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 12.9% | 82% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 11.8 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 26.7% | 62% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 5.6% | 65% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 15.8 | 4 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 19.5% | 63% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 11.1 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 16% | 69% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 22.1 | 4 | 4 | 121 | 1 | 19% | 76% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 3.8 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 14.3% | 84% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 5.5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 21.1% | 61% |
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 17.4 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 25% | 78% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16.1% | 80% |
| 12 | LAC | 30-23 | 12.3 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 14.3% | 57% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 80 | 2 | 20.8% | 76% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 8.4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 13% | 81% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 6.3% | 44% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 18.6 | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 | 26.7% | 71% |
| Receptions | 45 |
| Targets | 72 |
| Receiving yards | 756 |
| Touchdowns | 9 |
| Points per game | 10.91 |
| Yards per target | 10.5 |
| Catch rate | 62.5% |
| Snap share | 70.81% |
| Target share | 16.86% |
| Air-yards share | 27.59% |
| WOPR | 0.447 |
| RACR | 0.849 |
| Average depth of target | 13.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 12.7 |
| Total YAC | 184 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 125.9 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.81 |
| Red-zone targets | 11 |
| Red-zone target share | 16.2% |
| End-zone target share | 20% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.4 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 8 |
| Receiving TD luck | 5.6 |
The offense threw it 477 times. He took 15.75% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 34.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.17 in those and 10.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against MIA — 9.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 56-19. His worst was Week 3 against IND at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 19-22. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4; in the 8 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 5.1, 20.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 25-9 | 6.5 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 14.3% | 39% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-24 | 4.8 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 9.1% | 59% |
| 3 | IND | 19-22 | 1.6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | 69% |
| 5 | PIT | 10-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7.9% | 39% |
| 6 | TEN | 24-16 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10.3% | 48% |
| 7 | DET | 38-6 | 5.6 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 10.7% | 48% |
| 8 | ARI | 31-24 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 7.7% | 62% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 15.6% | 57% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 4.5 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 17.4% | 74% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 8.7% | 77% |
| 12 | LAC | 20-10 | 4.1 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 16.7% | 80% |
| 14 | LA | 37-31 | 4.4 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 47% |
| 15 | JAX | 23-7 | 6.9 | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 26.1% | 44% |
| 16 | SF | 33-19 | 2.4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 11.8% | 54% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-19 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 27.3% | 72% |
| Receptions | 32 |
| Targets | 56 |
| Receiving yards | 367 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.1 |
| Yards per target | 6.55 |
| Catch rate | 57.14% |
| Yards per carry | 18 |
| Snap share | 57.93% |
| Target share | 13.57% |
| Air-yards share | 22.09% |
| WOPR | 0.357 |
| RACR | 0.566 |
| Average depth of target | 14.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.6 |
| Total YAC | 59 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 60.6 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.23 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.17 |
| Red-zone targets | 4 |
| Red-zone target share | 5.6% |
| End-zone target share | 10% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.16 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.16 |
The offense threw it 494 times. He took 11.76% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.4% |
3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.93 in those and 3.97 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against MIA — 20.8 PPR on 7 targets and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-42. His worst was Week 8 against TB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-22. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times.
His usage that season was worth 8 points per game. He scored 8.92, 11.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 24-9 | 13.9 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 1 | 17.2% | 66% |
| 2 | MIA | 38-42 | 20.8 | 4 | 7 | 108 | 1 | 24.1% | 61% |
| 3 | NE | 37-26 | 5.9 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 0 | 14.8% | 62% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-23 | 4.7 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 21.4% | 44% |
| 7 | CLE | 23-20 | 8.2 | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 31.3% | 56% |
| 8 | TB | 27-22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 17% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 28 |
| Receiving yards | 285 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 8.92 |
| Yards per target | 10.18 |
| Catch rate | 53.57% |
| Snap share | 51% |
| Target share | 18.62% |
| Air-yards share | 27.65% |
| WOPR | 0.473 |
| RACR | 0.705 |
| Average depth of target | 13.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.1 |
| Total YAC | 133 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 98.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.3% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.45 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.45 |
The offense threw it 488 times. He took 6.02% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 24.3% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 16.13% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.9% |
| Devin Duvernay | 10.54% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 6.02% |
| Kenyan Drake | 5.59% |
His best game was Week 14 against CLE — 17.3 PPR on 8 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 22-24. His worst was Week 13 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 19-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 4 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 8.62, 12.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | LAC | 34-6 | 6.9 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 22.2% | 65% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-41 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.6% | 63% |
| 9 | MIN | 34-31 | 10.2 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 19.5% | 66% |
| 10 | MIA | 10-22 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 | 19.5% | 55% |
| 11 | CHI | 16-13 | 5.9 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 16.7% | 70% |
| 12 | CLE | 16-10 | 7.1 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 12.5% | 44% |
| 13 | PIT | 19-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 45% |
| 14 | CLE | 22-24 | 17.3 | 7 | 8 | 103 | 0 | 20% | 65% |
| 15 | GB | 30-31 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5.1% | 93% |
| 16 | CIN | 21-41 | 12.6 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 13.5% | 81% |
| 17 | LA | 19-20 | 12.8 | 7 | 10 | 58 | 0 | 34.5% | 83% |
| 18 | PIT | 13-16 | 4.2 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12.5% | 87% |
| Receptions | 46 |
| Targets | 68 |
| Receiving yards | 515 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 8.62 |
| Yards per target | 7.57 |
| Catch rate | 67.65% |
| Snap share | 68.08% |
| Target share | 16.11% |
| Air-yards share | 17.72% |
| WOPR | 0.365 |
| RACR | 0.831 |
| Average depth of target | 8.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 7.5 |
| Total YAC | 171 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.24 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 7.5% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.33 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.33 |
The offense threw it 610 times. He took 11.51% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 25.89% |
| Marquise Brown | 24.7% |
| Rashod Bateman ← | 11.51% |
| Sammy Watkins | 8.29% |
| Devin Duvernay | 7.95% |
| Devonta Freeman | 7.11% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 33 | 8.2 | 8.24 | 15.17% |
| Tyler Huntley | 5 | 30 | 8.34 | 7.23 | 17.76% |
| Josh Johnson | 1 | 5 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 13.5% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 29.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.17 in those and 7.38 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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