WR · BAL · GWTTKB

Rashod Bateman — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.26 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 201.8, usage worth 5.

26 years old · 5 seasons of experience · 2021 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 201.8
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 43.8, 61.9 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on sleeper, priciest on espn.
SLEEPER232.7
ESPN170.8
UNDERDOG201
FFA239

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 17, pick 10 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankWR161
ADP standard deviation43.8 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 89.4 points, 5.5 per game — 29.4 catches, 390 yards, 3.5 TDs. That is WR6, 228 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 3.7 points per game to a ceiling of 10.3, with the median at 5.5. Boom rate 87%, bust rate 34%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 201.8 on consensus and our board has him 228. We rank him 26.2 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.

In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 11.1%, with a bear case of 10.3% and a bull case of 12.1% and a full range of 9.1% to 13.7%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.

The projected target split across the offense:

Zay Flowers24%
Mark Andrews14.5%
Rashod Bateman 11.1%
Justice Hill8.7%
Ja'Kobi Lane8.4%
Elijah Sarratt7.3%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.

Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)

Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.

Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.

How that share projection was built

29 historical comps for WRs age ~26, prior share 13.6%, same team, OC change. Distribution: median 12.2%, p25-p75 [9.3%, 14.2%], tails [6.0%, 18.7%]. Closest comps: Tutu Atwell 2023→2024 (LA: 13.2%→13.2%); Tre'Quan Smith 2021→2022 (NO: 14.2%→9.3%); Allen Lazard 2023→2024 (NYJ: 14.8%→14.2%). Adjustment: -6% from role_decline (real opportunity collapse)

self-anchored 58% to own 13.6% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 12.2%

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season-0.3 · neutral
Weeks 1–6+4.7 · easier
Weeks 12–17+1.3 · neutral
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+3.9 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20223James Proche+1.2
20252Devontez Walker+0.5

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -26.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-crash. The base rate that applies: after a -25% crash, WRs recover only 15% of the time (keep falling 85%).

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Elijah Moore20247.173%-32.2%
Van Jefferson20244.267%+1.9%
Jerry Jeudy20238.966%+55.8%
D.J. Chark20238.365%-24.1%
Michael Gallup20227.561%-19.5%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 1 gained value, 3 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,0004,00020222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2021-04 to 2026-07. Down 60% across the series, peaking at 4,898.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2021, round 1, pick 27 by BAL
CollegeMinnesota
Age at draft21
Height6′0″
Weight190 lb
40-yard dash4.39s
Vertical36″
Broad jump123″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game7.1
Week-to-week variation0.8
Boom rate14.9%
Bust rate38.3%
Games missed per season1.2
Injury historyFoot, Hamstring, Ankle
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.12

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · BAL · 13 games

His best game was Week 3 against DET — 17.3 PPR on 7 targets and a 25% target share, in a game that finished 30-38. His worst was Week 16 against NE at 0, on 2 targets, final score 24-28. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.7; in the 8 decided by more, 3.4. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5 points per game. He scored 4.26, 14.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF40-4132410021.1%73%
2CLE41-173.52415014.3%59%
3DET30-3817.35763125%60%
4KC20-373.4122406.7%80%
5HOU10-440030015%81%
6LA3-171.811803.1%56%
8CHI30-167.12451018.2%79%
9MIA28-69.32413117.4%71%
10MIN27-194121007.1%61%
13CIN14-32001003.3%73%
14PIT22-274.3232309.1%86%
16NE24-280020010%69%
17GB41-241.711705%53%

Production

Receptions19
Targets38
Receiving yards224
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.26
Yards per target5.89
Catch rate50%

Role

Snap share69.31%
Target share11.95%
Air-yards share17.46%
WOPR0.302
RACR0.708

Efficiency

Average depth of target12.3
Yards after catch per reception2.1
Yards before catch per reception9.7
Total YAC39
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted74.9
Receiving EPA per game-0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets8
Red-zone target share14.8%
End-zone target share14.3%
Expected receiving TDs1.83
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.17

Who else ate

The offense threw it 422 times. He took 9.34% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers28.99%
Mark Andrews17.2%
DeAndre Hopkins9.58%
Rashod Bateman 9.34%
Isaiah Likely8.85%
Justice Hill6.63%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson9294.985.4512.67%
Cooper Rush240.929.05%
Tyler Huntley254.411.611.6%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 32.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.98 in those and 5.72 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2024 · BAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 15 against NYG — 23 PPR on 5 targets and a 20.8% target share, in a game that finished 35-14. His worst was Week 17 against HOU at 2.2, on 1 targets, final score 31-2. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 2 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 10.2; in the 7 decided by more, 11.9. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.8 points per game. He scored 10.91, 44% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 8 against 2.4 expected, a gap of 5.6.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1KC20-277.32553012.5%84%
2LV23-2673440012.9%82%
3DAL28-2511.83428126.7%62%
4BUF35-103.3112305.6%65%
5CIN41-3815.84858119.5%63%
6WAS30-2311.14471016%69%
7TB41-3122.144121119%76%
8CLE24-293.81528014.3%84%
9DEN41-105.53425021.1%61%
10CIN35-3417.46854125%78%
11PIT16-1852530016.1%80%
12LAC30-2312.32343114.3%57%
15NYG35-14233580220.8%76%
16PIT34-178.41314113%81%
17HOU31-22.2111206.3%44%
18CLE35-1018.65876126.7%71%

Production

Receptions45
Targets72
Receiving yards756
Touchdowns9
Points per game10.91
Yards per target10.5
Catch rate62.5%

Role

Snap share70.81%
Target share16.86%
Air-yards share27.59%
WOPR0.447
RACR0.849

Efficiency

Average depth of target13.6
Yards after catch per reception4.1
Yards before catch per reception12.7
Total YAC184
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted125.9
Receiving EPA per game2.81

Scoring position

Red-zone targets11
Red-zone target share16.2%
End-zone target share20%
Expected receiving TDs2.4
Actual receiving TDs8
Receiving TD luck5.6

Who else ate

The offense threw it 477 times. He took 15.75% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers25.38%
Rashod Bateman 15.75%
Mark Andrews15.1%
Isaiah Likely12.69%
Justice Hill11.16%
Nelson Agholor6.35%

Blowouts against close games

6 of his 16 games were blowouts, 34.9% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.17 in those and 10.17 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · BAL · 15 games

His best game was Week 17 against MIA — 9.4 PPR on 6 targets and a 27.3% target share, in a game that finished 56-19. His worst was Week 3 against IND at 1.6, on 3 targets, final score 19-22. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4; in the 8 decided by more, 6.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 5.1, 20.6% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU25-96.53335014.3%39%
2CIN27-244.8331809.1%59%
3IND19-221.6136010%69%
5PIT10-171.813807.9%39%
6TEN24-163.52315010.3%48%
7DET38-65.62336010.7%48%
8ARI31-247.2223407.7%62%
9SEA37-35.83528015.6%57%
10CLE31-334.52425017.4%74%
11CIN34-208121018.7%77%
12LAC20-104.12521016.7%80%
14LA37-314.42424010%47%
15JAX23-76.93639026.1%44%
16SF33-192.41414011.8%54%
17MIA56-199.44654027.3%72%

Production

Receptions32
Targets56
Receiving yards367
Carries1
Rushing yards18
Touchdowns1
Points per game5.1
Yards per target6.55
Catch rate57.14%
Yards per carry18

Role

Snap share57.93%
Target share13.57%
Air-yards share22.09%
WOPR0.357
RACR0.566

Efficiency

Average depth of target14.5
Yards after catch per reception1.8
Yards before catch per reception9.6
Total YAC59
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted60.6
Receiving EPA per game0.23
Rushing EPA per game0.17

Scoring position

Red-zone targets4
Red-zone target share5.6%
End-zone target share10%
Expected receiving TDs1.16
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.16

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. He took 11.76% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers22.69%
Odell Beckham13.45%
Mark Andrews12.82%
Rashod Bateman 11.76%
Nelson Agholor9.45%
Isaiah Likely8.4%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 15 games were blowouts, 27.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 6.93 in those and 3.97 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · BAL · 6 games

His best game was Week 2 against MIA — 20.8 PPR on 7 targets and a 24.1% target share, in a game that finished 38-42. His worst was Week 8 against TB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-22. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 3 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 8 points per game. He scored 8.92, 11.9% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ24-913.92559117.2%66%
2MIA38-4220.847108124.1%61%
3NE37-265.92459014.8%62%
4BUF20-234.73617021.4%44%
7CLE23-208.24542031.3%56%
8TB27-22001002.9%17%

Production

Receptions15
Targets28
Receiving yards285
Touchdowns2
Points per game8.92
Yards per target10.18
Catch rate53.57%

Role

Snap share51%
Target share18.62%
Air-yards share27.65%
WOPR0.473
RACR0.705

Efficiency

Average depth of target13.4
Yards after catch per reception8.9
Yards before catch per reception10.1
Total YAC133
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted98.1
Receiving EPA per game0.44

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.3%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs0.45
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.45

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. He took 6.02% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews24.3%
Demarcus Robinson16.13%
Isaiah Likely12.9%
Devin Duvernay10.54%
Rashod Bateman 6.02%
Kenyan Drake5.59%

2021 · BAL · 12 games

His best game was Week 14 against CLE — 17.3 PPR on 8 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 22-24. His worst was Week 13 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 19-20. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.4; in the 4 decided by more, 11.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 9.8 points per game. He scored 8.62, 12.1% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
6LAC34-66.94629022.2%65%
7CIN17-41113680014.6%63%
9MIN34-3110.25852019.5%66%
10MIA10-22146880019.5%55%
11CHI16-135.93629016.7%70%
12CLE16-107.14431012.5%44%
13PIT19-20001002.7%45%
14CLE22-2417.378103020%65%
15GB30-311.512505.1%93%
16CIN21-4112.64526113.5%81%
17LA19-2012.871058034.5%83%
18PIT13-164.22422012.5%87%

Production

Receptions46
Targets68
Receiving yards515
Touchdowns1
Points per game8.62
Yards per target7.57
Catch rate67.65%

Role

Snap share68.08%
Target share16.11%
Air-yards share17.72%
WOPR0.365
RACR0.831

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.8
Yards after catch per reception3.7
Yards before catch per reception7.5
Total YAC171
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted76.5
Receiving EPA per game1.24

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share7.5%
End-zone target share6.7%
Expected receiving TDs1.33
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck-0.33

Who else ate

The offense threw it 610 times. He took 11.51% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews25.89%
Marquise Brown24.7%
Rashod Bateman 11.51%
Sammy Watkins8.29%
Devin Duvernay7.95%
Devonta Freeman7.11%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson6338.28.2415.17%
Tyler Huntley5308.347.2317.76%
Josh Johnson1512.65.213.5%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 29.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 10.17 in those and 7.38 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Rashod Bateman →
All player profiles · 2026 rankings · Research findings · Methodology
GWTTKB publishes research and education. Nothing here is betting advice.