Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.93 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 1.8.
31 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| ESPN | 170 |
| FFA | 563 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | TE51 |
Our board has him at 4.2 points, 0.3 per game — 1.9 catches, 17 yards, 0.1 TDs. That is TE5, 359 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.1 points per game to a ceiling of 0.6, with the median at 0.3. Boom rate 86%, bust rate 50%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 359. We rank him 189 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 5.8%, with a bear case of 1.8% and a bull case of 8.3% and a full range of 1.8% to 11.5%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~29, prior share 10.0%, team change, OC change. Distribution: median 6.1%, p25-p75 [0.0%, 9.9%], tails [0.0%, 14.8%]. Closest comps: Anthony Firkser 2021→2022 (TEN→ATL: 10.0%→6.1%); Austin Hooper 2023→2024 (LV→NE: 10.3%→12.2%); Jordan Akins 2022→2023 (HOU→CLE: 10.4%→5.7%).
arrival self-anchored 21% to own 10.0% role (1yr)
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +14.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 2023 | 3.1 | 56% | +219.4% |
| Ian Thomas | 2023 | 1.3 | 55% | -1% |
| Austin Hooper | 2023 | 3 | 50% | +46.1% |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2024 | 2.7 | 49% | +6.5% |
| Gerald Everett | 2024 | 1.2 | 49% | -21.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 4, pick 123 by MIA |
| College | Notre Dame |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 253 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.81s |
| Vertical | 31″ |
| Broad jump | 110″ |
| 3-cone | 7.17s |
| Shuttle | 4.23s |
| Career PPR per game | 3.7 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 3.4% |
| Bust rate | 25.9% |
| Games missed per season | 0.2 |
| Injury history | Knee |
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 17 against SF — 2.1 PPR on 1 targets and a 2.6% target share, in a game that finished 38-42. His worst was Week 18 against DET at 0, on 0 targets, final score 16-19. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times.
His usage that season was worth 1.8 points per game. He scored 0.93, 41.1% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | CIN | 47-42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 29% |
| 11 | MIN | 19-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10.7% | 21% |
| 12 | PIT | 31-28 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.3% | 29% |
| 14 | GB | 21-28 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3.6% | 29% |
| 15 | CLE | 31-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 17 | SF | 38-42 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.6% | 21% |
| 18 | DET | 16-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| Receptions | 4 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.93 |
| Yards per target | 4.17 |
| Catch rate | 66.67% |
| Snap share | 27% |
| Target share | 2.89% |
| Air-yards share | 0.93% |
| WOPR | 0.05 |
| RACR | 0.599 |
| Average depth of target | 4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 2.5 |
| Total YAC | 15 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 75 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.04 |
The offense threw it 574 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Rome Odunze | 16.98% |
| D.J. Moore | 16.04% |
| Colston Loveland | 15.47% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 12.26% |
| Luther Burden III | 11.32% |
| D'Andre Swift | 9.06% |
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 0% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 0 in those and 1.08 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 2 against BUF — 1.8 PPR on 1 targets and a 2.7% target share, in a game that finished 10-31. His worst was Week 18 against NYJ at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-32. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 0.7; in the 7 decided by more, 1.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.3 points per game. He scored 1.02, 52.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.11 expected, a gap of -1.1.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 20-17 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 42% |
| 2 | BUF | 10-31 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.7% | 43% |
| 3 | SEA | 3-24 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6.5% | 30% |
| 5 | NE | 15-10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 35% |
| 7 | IND | 10-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 25% |
| 9 | BUF | 27-30 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.7% | 43% |
| 10 | LA | 23-15 | 1.6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.6% | 47% |
| 11 | LV | 34-19 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.9% | 34% |
| 12 | NE | 34-15 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.5% | 37% |
| 13 | GB | 17-30 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2% | 20% |
| 14 | NYJ | 32-26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.2% | 19% |
| 15 | HOU | 12-20 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.6% | 24% |
| 16 | SF | 29-17 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6.5% | 36% |
| 18 | NYJ | 20-32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 26% |
| Receptions | 9 |
| Targets | 17 |
| Receiving yards | 53 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.02 |
| Yards per target | 3.12 |
| Catch rate | 52.94% |
| Snap share | 32.93% |
| Target share | 3.54% |
| Air-yards share | 2.94% |
| WOPR | 0.074 |
| RACR | 0.731 |
| Average depth of target | 5.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 1.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.1 |
| Total YAC | 16 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 59.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 3.5% |
| End-zone target share | 6.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.11 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.11 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 21.94% |
| Jonnu Smith | 19.96% |
| De'Von Achane | 15.65% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 14.93% |
| Malik Washington | 6.47% |
| Raheem Mostert | 4.14% |
He caught passes from 4 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 3.85 | 3.72% |
| Tyler Huntley | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2.95% |
| Skylar Thompson | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6.5% |
| Tim Boyle | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 34.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.63 in those and 0.69 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 16 against DAL — 10.6 PPR on 5 targets and a 13.9% target share, in a game that finished 22-20. His worst was Week 6 against CAR at 0, on 1 targets, final score 42-21. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.3; in the 7 decided by more, 4.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 5.51, 6.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.48 expected, a gap of -1.5.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 36-34 | 7.4 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 | 15.9% | 100% |
| 2 | NE | 24-17 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 10.3% | 97% |
| 3 | DEN | 70-20 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3.6% | 36% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-48 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 11.8% | 85% |
| 6 | CAR | 42-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.3% | 66% |
| 8 | NE | 31-17 | 5.8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 6.8% | 66% |
| 9 | KC | 14-21 | 4.7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9.1% | 84% |
| 12 | NYJ | 34-13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 10.7% | 77% |
| 14 | TEN | 27-28 | 3.6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9.1% | 78% |
| 15 | NYJ | 30-0 | 7.2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 15.4% | 70% |
| 16 | DAL | 22-20 | 10.6 | 5 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 13.9% | 85% |
| 17 | BAL | 19-56 | 8.4 | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.3% | 74% |
| 18 | BUF | 14-21 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 11.1% | 75% |
| Receptions | 35 |
| Targets | 43 |
| Receiving yards | 366 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 5.51 |
| Yards per target | 8.51 |
| Catch rate | 81.4% |
| Snap share | 76.38% |
| Target share | 9.95% |
| Air-yards share | 8.61% |
| WOPR | 0.209 |
| RACR | 1.476 |
| Average depth of target | 6.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 6.5 |
| Total YAC | 139 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 102.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.69 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 6.9% |
| End-zone target share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.48 |
The offense threw it 566 times. He took 8.07% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 32.08% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 19.51% |
| Durham Smythe ← | 8.07% |
| Cedrick Wilson | 7.13% |
| De'Von Achane | 6.94% |
| Braxton Berrios | 6.19% |
6 of his 13 games were blowouts, 39.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.7 in those and 6.27 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 5 against NYJ — 7.9 PPR on 1 targets and a 3.1% target share, in a game that finished 17-40. His worst was Week 10 against CLE at 0, on 0 targets, final score 39-17. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 13 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.6; in the 6 decided by more, 3.6. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.8 points per game. He scored 3.08, 16.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 20-7 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.5% | 63% |
| 2 | BAL | 42-38 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | 49% |
| 3 | BUF | 21-19 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 15% | 74% |
| 4 | CIN | 15-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 63% |
| 5 | NYJ | 17-40 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3.1% | 49% |
| 9 | CHI | 35-32 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.9% | 58% |
| 10 | CLE | 39-17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 54% |
| 12 | HOU | 30-15 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2.6% | 49% |
| 13 | SF | 17-33 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5.9% | 59% |
| 15 | BUF | 29-32 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3.3% | 64% |
| 16 | GB | 20-26 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4.2% | 64% |
| 17 | NE | 21-23 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.5% | 59% |
| 18 | NYJ | 11-6 | 6.9 | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 18.5% | 71% |
| Receptions | 15 |
| Targets | 20 |
| Receiving yards | 129 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 3.08 |
| Yards per target | 6.45 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Yards per carry | 0.5 |
| Snap share | 59.69% |
| Target share | 5.42% |
| Air-yards share | 2.4% |
| WOPR | 0.099 |
| RACR | 1.008 |
| Average depth of target | 4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.1 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.5 |
| Total YAC | 47 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 108.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.11 |
| Red-zone targets | 3 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.4% |
| End-zone target share | 3.6% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.71 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 1 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.29 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.48 |
The offense threw it 584 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyreek Hill | 31.54% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 21.71% |
| Mike Gesicki | 9.65% |
| Trent Sherfield | 9.46% |
| Raheem Mostert | 7.79% |
| Jeffery Wilson | 4.45% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 9 | 13 | 2.59 | 5.62 | 5.16% |
| Skylar Thompson | 3 | 7 | 5.57 | 8 | 8.03% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 0% |
2 of his 13 games were blowouts, 19.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.95 in those and 2.6 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 6 against JAX — 10.9 PPR on 6 targets and a 12.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 13 against NYG at 0, on 1 targets, final score 20-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.8; in the 9 decided by more, 4.1. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.8 points per game. He scored 4.38, 2.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 0 against 1.95 expected, a gap of -1.9.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE | 17-16 | 1.9 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7.4% | 70% |
| 2 | BUF | 0-35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 30% |
| 3 | LV | 28-31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.1% | 41% |
| 4 | IND | 17-27 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6.7% | 40% |
| 5 | TB | 17-45 | 4.3 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7.7% | 67% |
| 6 | JAX | 20-23 | 10.9 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 12.8% | 83% |
| 7 | ATL | 28-30 | 6.7 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 10% | 40% |
| 9 | HOU | 17-9 | 4.7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 5% | 60% |
| 10 | BAL | 22-10 | 3.3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 2.9% | 59% |
| 11 | NYJ | 24-17 | 7.7 | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 14.7% | 71% |
| 12 | CAR | 33-10 | 8.5 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 16.1% | 89% |
| 13 | NYG | 20-9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.4% | 61% |
| 15 | NYJ | 31-24 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.8% | 92% |
| 16 | NO | 20-3 | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 11.5% | 78% |
| 17 | TEN | 3-34 | 6.7 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 7.9% | 66% |
| 18 | NE | 33-24 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 9.5% | 69% |
| Receptions | 34 |
| Targets | 41 |
| Receiving yards | 357 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 4.38 |
| Yards per target | 8.71 |
| Catch rate | 82.93% |
| Yards per carry | 1.5 |
| Snap share | 63.5% |
| Target share | 7.53% |
| Air-yards share | 6.47% |
| WOPR | 0.158 |
| RACR | 1.934 |
| Average depth of target | 6.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.8 |
| Total YAC | 160 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 92.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.94 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 7 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.9% |
| End-zone target share | 7.1% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.95 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -1.95 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
The offense threw it 615 times. He took 6.86% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Jaylen Waddle | 23.41% |
| Mike Gesicki | 18.73% |
| DeVante Parker | 12.21% |
| Myles Gaskin | 10.54% |
| Durham Smythe ← | 6.86% |
| Albert Wilson | 6.52% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 32 | 5.51 | 8.69 | 9.61% |
| Jacoby Brissett | 6 | 9 | 2.48 | 8.78 | 4.07% |
5 of his 16 games were blowouts, 36.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.12 in those and 4.76 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 15 against NE — 9 PPR on 5 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 22-12. His worst was Week 11 against DEN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 13-20. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.9; in the 7 decided by more, 5.1. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3.9 points per game. He scored 4.52, 14.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | JAX | 31-13 | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | 69% |
| 4 | SEA | 23-31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 4.4% | 41% |
| 6 | NYJ | 24-0 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6.9% | 34% |
| 8 | LA | 28-17 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 9.1% | 65% |
| 9 | ARI | 34-31 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3.8% | 41% |
| 10 | LAC | 29-21 | 8.9 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 8.3% | 67% |
| 11 | DEN | 13-20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 20% |
| 12 | NYJ | 20-3 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 7.7% | 42% |
| 13 | CIN | 19-7 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 5.3% | 59% |
| 14 | KC | 27-33 | 3.9 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 6.5% | 43% |
| 15 | NE | 22-12 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 20% | 57% |
| 16 | LV | 26-25 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5.9% | 48% |
| 17 | BUF | 26-56 | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 5.1% | 28% |
| Receptions | 26 |
| Targets | 29 |
| Receiving yards | 208 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.52 |
| Yards per target | 7.17 |
| Catch rate | 89.66% |
| Snap share | 47.23% |
| Target share | 6.98% |
| Air-yards share | 3.75% |
| WOPR | 0.13 |
| RACR | 1.974 |
| Average depth of target | 3.9 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 4.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Total YAC | 122 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 119.5 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 6 |
| Red-zone target share | 8.6% |
| End-zone target share | 5.4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 2.12 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.12 |
The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| DeVante Parker | 18.93% |
| Mike Gesicki | 15.63% |
| Jakeem Grant | 9.93% |
| Myles Gaskin | 8.64% |
| Isaiah Ford | 8.09% |
| Lynn Bowden | 6.8% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 9 | 21 | 4.42 | 7.05 | 7.41% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 8 | 4.75 | 7.5 | 6% |
4 of his 13 games were blowouts, 32.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.83 in those and 3.88 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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