Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 16.53 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 37.7, usage worth 14.9.
29 years old · 8 seasons of experience · 2018 draft class
| SLEEPER | 33.8 |
| ESPN | 39.2 |
| YAHOO | 36.4 |
| UNDERDOG | 57 |
| CBS | 41.5 |
| FFA | 52 |
| Goes around | Round 4, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | QB2 |
| Bye week | 13 |
| ADP standard deviation | 3.3 picks |
Our board has him at 361.7 points, 21.5 per game — 3,550 passing yards, 27.9 passing TDs, 832 rushing yards. That is QB1, 52 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 17.2 points per game to a ceiling of 28.7, with the median at 21.5. Boom rate 34%, bust rate 20%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 37.7 on consensus and our board has him 52. We rank him 14.3 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
top-8-or-much-better in most healthy seasons but has missed real time in multiple recent years, why he sits behind Allen despite arguably higher ceiling outcomes. Genuinely capable of a rare "league-winning" QB season (25-28+ PPG) almost no one else can match — the rushing threat itself opens up his downfield passing further than raw arm talent alone would (defenses respecting the scramble leaves receivers more open). Last year's down season is attributed specifically to a lingering mobility injury that visibly limited him even after he "returned," not a decline in ability.
buy · high conviction · 2026-08Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.
In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).
The projected target split across the offense:
| Zay Flowers | 24% |
| Mark Andrews | 14.5% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.1% |
| Justice Hill | 8.7% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | 8.4% |
| Elijah Sarratt | 7.3% |
What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.
Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)
Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.
Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.
Base case 259.9 PPR points, with a bear case of 134.6 and a bull case of 373, and a comp mean of 257.1. The model puts 40% probability on him beating this and 60% on falling short. Drawn from 20 comparable quarterback seasons.
| Comparable season | What he actually scored | Distance |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill 2019 | 357.6 | 0.6 |
| Russell Wilson 2013 | 388.2 | 0.7 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick 2014 | 285.2 | 0.7 |
| Russell Wilson 2012 | 305.3 | 0.7 |
| Jordan Love 2024 | 265.2 | 0.8 |
Cross-check against the dynasty market: his production ranks in the 45th percentile and his value in the 93th, which the engine reads as well above production. Players with a similar production-against-value gap saw dynasty value move -8.7% over the following year, across 14 cases — a dynasty signal, not a 2026 scoring one.
Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | -0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.7 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +1.3 · neutral |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +3.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Tyler Huntley | +11.3 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -21.4% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.8 elite seasons and 3.1 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 2024 | 17.5 | 68% | -24.4% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2023 | 17.5 | 68% | -12.8% |
| Justin Herbert | 2024 | 16.8 | 59% | +12% |
| Baker Mayfield | 2024 | 21.5 | 59% | 0% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2024 | 17.7 | 54% | +5.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2018, round 1, pick 32 by BAL |
| College | Louisville |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 6′2″ |
| Weight | 216 lb |
| Career PPR per game | 20.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.4 |
| Boom rate | 11.9% |
| Bust rate | 16.4% |
| Games missed per season | 2 |
| Injury history | Ankle, Knee, Hamstring, Back |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.14 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 1 against BUF — 29.36 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 40-41. His worst was Week 11 against CLE at 4.72, on 0 targets, final score 23-16. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 6 times and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.7; in the 6 decided by more, 15.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 14.9 points per game. He scored 16.53, 11.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 40-41 | 29.36 | 0 | 6 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CLE | 41-17 | 26.3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 95% |
| 3 | DET | 30-38 | 27.02 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | KC | 20-37 | 10.68 | 0 | 6 | 48 | 1 | 0% | 69% |
| 9 | MIA | 28-6 | 25.56 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | MIN | 27-19 | 16.64 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CLE | 23-16 | 4.72 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | NYJ | 23-10 | 7.22 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | CIN | 14-32 | 6.54 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | PIT | 22-27 | 21.06 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-0 | 14.6 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 0% | 88% |
| 16 | NE | 24-28 | 4.74 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 47% |
| 18 | PIT | 24-26 | 20.42 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| Carries | 67 |
| Rushing yards | 349 |
| Touchdowns | 23 |
| Points per game | 16.53 |
| Yards per carry | 5.21 |
| Snap share | 92.23% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.59 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 12.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 3.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.3 |
The offense threw it 422 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 28.99% |
| Mark Andrews | 17.2% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.58% |
| Rashod Bateman | 9.34% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.85% |
| Justice Hill | 6.63% |
5 of his 13 games were blowouts, 39% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 16.74 in those and 17.71 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 15 against NYG — 36.1 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 35-14. His worst was Week 11 against PIT at 14.88, on 0 targets, final score 16-18. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 14 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 24; in the 7 decided by more, 27.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.8 points per game. He scored 25.32, 32.3% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 20-27 | 25.12 | 0 | 16 | 122 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | LV | 23-26 | 16.38 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | DAL | 28-25 | 25.98 | 0 | 14 | 87 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | BUF | 35-10 | 23.64 | 0 | 6 | 54 | 3 | 0% | 95% |
| 5 | CIN | 41-38 | 33.42 | 0 | 12 | 55 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | WAS | 30-23 | 18.92 | 0 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | TB | 41-31 | 34.44 | 0 | 9 | 52 | 5 | 0% | 95% |
| 8 | CLE | 24-29 | 24.16 | 0 | 8 | 46 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | DEN | 41-10 | 23.6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 89% |
| 10 | CIN | 35-34 | 32.9 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | PIT | 16-18 | 14.88 | 0 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | LAC | 30-23 | 22.58 | 0 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | PHI | 19-24 | 25.38 | 0 | 8 | 79 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | NYG | 35-14 | 36.1 | 0 | 6 | 65 | 5 | 0% | 83% |
| 16 | PIT | 34-17 | 20.48 | 0 | 9 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | HOU | 31-2 | 29.42 | 0 | 4 | 87 | 3 | 0% | 83% |
| 18 | CLE | 35-10 | 22.98 | 0 | 9 | 63 | 2 | 0% | 96% |
| Carries | 139 |
| Rushing yards | 915 |
| Touchdowns | 45 |
| Points per game | 25.32 |
| Yards per carry | 6.58 |
| Snap share | 96.53% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.68 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 21.1% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.86 |
The offense threw it 477 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 25.38% |
| Rashod Bateman | 15.75% |
| Mark Andrews | 15.1% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.69% |
| Justice Hill | 11.16% |
| Nelson Agholor | 6.35% |
6 of his 17 games were blowouts, 36.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 26.04 in those and 23.97 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 17 against MIA — 36.34 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 56-19. His worst was Week 1 against HOU at 6.56, on 0 targets, final score 25-9. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 8 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 19.3; in the 9 decided by more, 21.8. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 19 points per game. He scored 20.7, 12.6% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 25-9 | 6.56 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | CIN | 27-24 | 22.88 | 0 | 12 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | IND | 19-22 | 28.18 | 0 | 14 | 101 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | CLE | 28-3 | 28.14 | 0 | 9 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 95% |
| 5 | PIT | 10-17 | 9.94 | 0 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | TEN | 24-16 | 17.12 | 0 | 13 | 62 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | DET | 38-6 | 33.88 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 95% |
| 8 | ARI | 31-24 | 11.98 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | SEA | 37-3 | 11.48 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 0 | 0% | 75% |
| 10 | CLE | 31-33 | 13.02 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CIN | 34-20 | 23.96 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | LAC | 20-10 | 14.98 | 0 | 11 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | LA | 37-31 | 31.64 | 0 | 11 | 70 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 15 | JAX | 23-7 | 18.54 | 0 | 12 | 97 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 16 | SF | 33-19 | 22.58 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | MIA | 56-19 | 36.34 | 0 | 6 | 35 | 5 | 0% | 93% |
| Carries | 148 |
| Rushing yards | 821 |
| Touchdowns | 29 |
| Points per game | 20.7 |
| Yards per carry | 5.55 |
| Snap share | 91.13% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.64 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 29.2% |
| Goal-line carry share | 14.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 4.22 |
The offense threw it 494 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Zay Flowers | 22.69% |
| Odell Beckham | 13.45% |
| Mark Andrews | 12.82% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.76% |
| Nelson Agholor | 9.45% |
| Isaiah Likely | 8.4% |
4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 33.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 27.46 in those and 19.25 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 2 against MIA — 42.62 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 38-42. His worst was Week 13 against DEN at 1.34, on 0 targets, final score 10-9. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 5 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 17.9; in the 4 decided by more, 23.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 18.5 points per game. He scored 19.67, 6.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | 24-9 | 20.22 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | MIA | 38-42 | 42.62 | 0 | 9 | 119 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | NE | 37-26 | 39.42 | 0 | 11 | 107 | 5 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | BUF | 20-23 | 13.06 | 0 | 11 | 73 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | CIN | 19-17 | 14.76 | 0 | 12 | 58 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | NYG | 20-24 | 16.1 | 0 | 7 | 77 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 7 | CLE | 23-20 | 10.7 | 0 | 10 | 59 | 0 | 0% | 100% |
| 8 | TB | 27-22 | 21.82 | 0 | 9 | 43 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | NO | 27-13 | 17.52 | 0 | 11 | 82 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | CAR | 13-3 | 15.46 | 0 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | JAX | 27-28 | 23.06 | 0 | 14 | 89 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DEN | 10-9 | 1.34 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| Carries | 112 |
| Rushing yards | 764 |
| Touchdowns | 20 |
| Points per game | 19.67 |
| Yards per carry | 6.82 |
| Snap share | 67.83% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 3.31 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 18.6% |
| Goal-line carry share | 13.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 2.47 |
The offense threw it 488 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 24.3% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 16.13% |
| Isaiah Likely | 12.9% |
| Devin Duvernay | 10.54% |
| Rashod Bateman | 6.02% |
| Kenyan Drake | 5.59% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 0 | 21.34 | — | 0% |
| Tyler Huntley | 1 | 0 | 1.34 | — | 0% |
His best game was Week 5 against IND — 41.88 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 31-25. His worst was Week 14 against CLE at 1.18, on 0 targets, final score 22-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 4 times and came in under 8 points 1 time. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 21.3; in the 4 decided by more, 17.4. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 22.5 points per game. He scored 20, 11% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 27-33 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 86 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 2 | KC | 36-35 | 32.26 | 0 | 16 | 107 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | DET | 19-17 | 19.28 | 0 | 7 | 58 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | DEN | 23-7 | 19.44 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 5 | IND | 31-25 | 41.88 | 0 | 14 | 62 | 4 | 0% | 100% |
| 6 | LAC | 34-6 | 11.78 | 0 | 8 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 94% |
| 7 | CIN | 17-41 | 23.08 | 0 | 12 | 88 | 1 | 0% | 84% |
| 9 | MIN | 34-31 | 30.64 | 0 | 21 | 120 | 3 | 0% | 100% |
| 10 | MIA | 10-22 | 15.42 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 12 | CLE | 16-10 | 9.4 | 0 | 17 | 68 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | PIT | 19-20 | 17.62 | 0 | 8 | 55 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 14 | CLE | 22-24 | 1.18 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| Carries | 133 |
| Rushing yards | 767 |
| Touchdowns | 18 |
| Points per game | 20 |
| Yards per carry | 5.77 |
| Snap share | 91% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 1.29 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 21.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 29.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.48 |
The offense threw it 610 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Mark Andrews | 25.89% |
| Marquise Brown | 24.7% |
| Rashod Bateman | 11.51% |
| Sammy Watkins | 8.29% |
| Devin Duvernay | 7.95% |
| Devonta Freeman | 7.11% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 0 | 21.71 | — | 0% |
| Tyler Huntley | 1 | 0 | 1.18 | — | 0% |
2 of his 12 games were blowouts, 14.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 17.43 in those and 21.28 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against CLE — 34.92 PPR on 0 targets and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 47-42. His worst was Week 5 against CIN at 13.5, on 0 targets, final score 27-3. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 9 times and came in under 8 points 0 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 23.2; in the 10 decided by more, 21.7. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 20.3 points per game. He scored 22.19, 5.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | 38-6 | 27.5 | 0 | 7 | 45 | 3 | 0% | 90% |
| 2 | HOU | 33-16 | 17.56 | 0 | 16 | 54 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 3 | KC | 20-34 | 14.18 | 0 | 9 | 83 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 4 | WAS | 31-17 | 25.02 | 0 | 7 | 53 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | CIN | 27-3 | 13.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 99% |
| 6 | PHI | 30-28 | 28.24 | 0 | 9 | 108 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| 8 | PIT | 24-28 | 14.82 | 0 | 16 | 65 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 9 | IND | 24-10 | 18.6 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 1 | 0% | 0% |
| 10 | NE | 17-23 | 21.46 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 11 | TEN | 24-30 | 16.54 | 0 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 0% | 100% |
| 13 | DAL | 34-17 | 25.68 | 0 | 13 | 94 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | CLE | 47-42 | 34.92 | 0 | 9 | 124 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| 15 | JAX | 40-14 | 29.22 | 0 | 10 | 35 | 4 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | NYG | 27-13 | 21.32 | 0 | 13 | 80 | 2 | 0% | 100% |
| 17 | CIN | 38-3 | 24.22 | 0 | 11 | 97 | 3 | 0% | 0% |
| Carries | 159 |
| Rushing yards | 1,005 |
| Touchdowns | 33 |
| Points per game | 22.19 |
| Yards per carry | 6.32 |
| Snap share | 52.6% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 2.67 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 29.9% |
| Goal-line carry share | 7.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 3.41 |
The offense threw it 405 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Marquise Brown | 25.51% |
| Mark Andrews | 22.45% |
| Willie Snead | 12.24% |
| Miles Boykin | 8.42% |
| Devin Duvernay | 6.63% |
| J.K. Dobbins | 6.12% |
6 of his 15 games were blowouts, 41.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 22.95 in those and 23.2 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
Ask the Coach about Lamar Jackson →