RB · BAL · GWTTKB

Justice Hill — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 6.52 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.1, usage worth 5.4.

28 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170.1
Consensus across 2 books, standard deviation 1.1, 1.5 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on cbs.
ESPN170.8
UNDERDOG213.3
CBS169.3
FFA193

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankRB84
Bye week13
ADP standard deviation1.1 picks

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 75.8 points, 4.7 per game — 262 rushing yards, 1.7 rushing TDs, 18.5 catches. That is RB6, 190 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 2.2 points per game to a ceiling of 11.7, with the median at 4.7. Boom rate 99%, bust rate 53%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170.1 on consensus and our board has him 190. We rank him 19.9 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Baltimore Ravens returns 4 of 6 continuity slots, replacing hc, oc. Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach, Declan Doyle calling it. The offense projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 28.1 rushes.

In: Ja'Kobi Lane (wr4), Elijah Sarratt (wr5), Cornelius Johnson (wr7), Adam Randall (rb3), Ali Rasheen (rb4), Durham Smythe (te2). Out: Devin Duvernay (wr3), Tylan Wallace (wr5), Keaton Mitchell (rb3), Rasheen Ali (rb4), Isaiah Likely (te2).

The projected carry split across the offense:

Derrick Henry69.4%
Justice Hill 17.9%
Adam Randall9.3%
Ali Rasheen3.5%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Derrick Henry is aging, but until proven otherwise, will continue to be the Ravens workhorse back. Zay Flowers had his 5th year option picked up & his long term future in Baltimore MAY hinge on his 2026 season. he has shown flashes of being a true WR1, and Baltimore hasn't brought in direct competition with him, but imagine if he doesn't establish himself this year that Ravens will address WR more adequately. Rookie WRS Lane & Sarratt. have a large opportunity to take a substantial role in this offense. Bateman and Walker by no means are locked in as WR2 and WR3.

Key additions: G John Simpson (3/$30M), TE Durham Smythe (depth), QB Tyler Huntley (Back up to Lamar), WR Ja'Kobi Lane (3rd round from USC), WR Elijah Sarratt (4th Round Indiana), TE Matthew Hibner TE (5th round SMU)

Key departures: Biggest departure is HC John Harbaugh being fired at the end of the 2025 season. C Tyler Linderbaum left to Raiders. Isaiah Likely (TE) signed 3 year deal with NY. Lost RB Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers.

Notes: Lamar expected to completely bounce back. Derrick Henry is the unicorn who never ages apparently (fall off coming but production still here as of now). Ravens draft Adam Randall RB in 5th round. Justice Hill will still operate as 3rd down back. Henry main back. Isaiah Likely left to Giants in free agency. Andrews signs extension. Durham Smythe TE & Matthew Hibner TE also drafted. Andrews should be TE1 but unsure what production will look like. Ravens picked up Flowers franchise tag and he is under contract through 2027. Lane could be a rookie breakout, opportunity is 100% there.

How the volume number was reached: Same QB Lamar Jackson returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (24.8 att/g); Regressed 53% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 30 att/g; New OC Declan Doyle — pass rate and tempo may shift; New HC Jesse Minter.

How the carry projection was built

Projected carry share17.9%
Projected carries per game4.1
Projected carries, full season70
Last season, carries per game1.8

That is an increase of 2.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 28.1 rushing attempts a game.

Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.

Offensive environment: BAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+1.1 · neutral
Weeks 1–6-1.1 · neutral
Weeks 12–17+1.7 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+5.7 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20242Derrick Henry+8.5
20252Keaton Mitchell+6.7
Read the full Justice Hill study →

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved -5.5% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Samaje Perine20237.171%+0.1%
Samaje Perine20244.869%+39.7%
Chase Edmonds20233.159%-17.9%
Jamaal Williams20234.757%-26.9%
D'Ernest Johnson2024357%+48.6%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

02,000202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Down 18% across the series, peaking at 2,219.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2019, round 4, pick 113 by BAL
CollegeOklahoma St.
Age at draft21
Height5′10″
Weight198 lb
40-yard dash4.4s
Vertical40″
Broad jump130″

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game5.5
Week-to-week variation1.1
Boom rate13.5%
Bust rate34.6%
Games missed per season1.6
Injury historyThigh, Hamstring, Foot, Concussion, Toe, Neck
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.34

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · BAL · 10 games

His best game was Week 4 against KC — 28.7 PPR on 9 touches and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 20-37. His worst was Week 1 against BUF at -0.1, on 4 touches, final score 40-41. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 5.2; in the 7 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 5.4 points per game. He scored 6.52, 20.3% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1BUF40-41-0.11232-14010.5%45%
2CLE41-175.5331837010.7%39%
3DET30-387.5344500014.3%51%
4KC20-3728.75641376220%58%
5HOU10-442.212913010%30%
6LA3-179.45628616018.8%45%
8CHI30-160.20001200%31%
9MIA28-63.522131208.7%20%
10MIN27-198.312121117.1%27%
12NYJ23-1000000000%25%

Production

Receptions21
Targets27
Receiving yards169
Carries18
Rushing yards93
Touchdowns3
Points per game6.52
Yards per target6.26
Catch rate77.78%
Yards per carry5.17

Role

Snap share37.1%
Target share10.01%
Air-yards share-0.65%
WOPR0.146
RACR-0.336

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.2
Yards after catch per reception8.8
Yards before catch per reception-0.7
Total YAC184
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted105.1
Receiving EPA per game0.04
Rushing EPA per game-0.13

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.9%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share2.8%
Goal-line carry share3.1%
Expected receiving TDs0.15
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.85
Expected rushing TDs0.48

Who else ate

The offense threw it 422 times. He took 6.63% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers28.99%
Mark Andrews17.2%
DeAndre Hopkins9.58%
Rashod Bateman9.34%
Isaiah Likely8.85%
Justice Hill 6.63%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson7197.636.9510.19%
Cooper Rush285.84.6314.4%
Tyler Huntley100.20%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 10 games were blowouts, 61.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.98 in those and 5.23 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · BAL · 15 games

His best game was Week 4 against BUF — 21.6 PPR on 10 touches and a 33.3% target share, in a game that finished 35-10. His worst was Week 6 against WAS at 1.4, on 2 touches, final score 30-23. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 10 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.2; in the 5 decided by more, 13. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.5 points per game. He scored 8.47, 15.8% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.96 expected, a gap of 1.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1KC20-2711.5685213020%54%
2LV23-265.2221042206.5%54%
3DAL28-257.42221533013.3%41%
4BUF35-1021.66678418133.3%35%
5CIN41-383.512851704.9%53%
6WAS30-231.41121204%38%
7TB41-3113.8334454114.3%46%
8CLE24-292.911142502.9%50%
9DEN41-108.83343515015.8%33%
10CIN35-341.82202-206.3%35%
11PIT16-188.14728213022.6%49%
12LAC30-2314.222745519.5%40%
13PHI19-246.1461536017.1%50%
15NYG35-1417.8556127120.8%37%
16PIT34-17301023004.3%11%

Production

Receptions42
Targets51
Receiving yards383
Carries47
Rushing yards228
Touchdowns4
Points per game8.47
Yards per target7.51
Catch rate82.35%
Yards per carry4.85

Role

Snap share41.73%
Target share13.04%
Air-yards share-0.33%
WOPR0.194
RACR0.325

Efficiency

Average depth of target-0.5
Yards after catch per reception10.4
Yards before catch per reception-1.3
Total YAC438
Broken tackles5
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted109.4
Receiving EPA per game0.94
Rushing EPA per game0.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets9
Red-zone target share13.2%
End-zone target share2.9%
Red-zone carry share7.4%
Goal-line carry share4.2%
Expected receiving TDs1.96
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck1.04
Expected rushing TDs0.86

Who else ate

The offense threw it 477 times. He took 11.16% of the targets. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers25.38%
Rashod Bateman15.75%
Mark Andrews15.1%
Isaiah Likely12.69%
Justice Hill 11.16%
Nelson Agholor6.35%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 40.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 12.8 in those and 6.21 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2023 · BAL · 16 games

His best game was Week 17 against MIA — 22.2 PPR on 8 touches and a 22.7% target share, in a game that finished 56-19. His worst was Week 10 against CLE at 0.7, on 2 touches, final score 31-33. Across 16 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 6.5; in the 9 decided by more, 7.1. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 7.3 points per game. He scored 6.83, 3.7% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1HOU25-912.90008920%30%
2CIN27-248.33312114109.1%57%
4CLE28-33.300033300%12%
5PIT10-1712.54413732110.5%56%
6TEN24-166.5330835010.3%38%
7DET38-65.811244603.6%50%
8ARI31-249.54440415015.4%48%
9SEA37-34010134003.1%63%
10CLE31-330.70002700%26%
11CIN34-201.71161104.3%26%
12LAC20-103.101053103.3%28%
14LA37-312.212120005%42%
15JAX23-72.301052304.3%26%
16SF33-198.73331102608.8%62%
17MIA56-1922.25564348122.7%35%
18PIT10-175.63102600038.5%54%

Production

Receptions28
Targets39
Receiving yards206
Carries84
Rushing yards387
Touchdowns4
Points per game6.83
Yards per target5.28
Catch rate71.79%
Yards per carry4.61

Role

Snap share40.81%
Target share8.68%
Air-yards share0.77%
WOPR0.136
RACR0.851

Efficiency

Average depth of target0.6
Yards after catch per reception8.5
Yards before catch per reception-1.1
Total YAC237
Broken tackles4
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted92.5
Rushing yards over expected0
Receiving EPA per game-0.3
Rushing EPA per game0.05

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.8%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share21.7%
Goal-line carry share11.8%
Expected receiving TDs0.27
Actual receiving TDs1
Receiving TD luck0.73
Expected rushing TDs3.27

Who else ate

The offense threw it 494 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.

Zay Flowers22.69%
Odell Beckham13.45%
Mark Andrews12.82%
Rashod Bateman11.76%
Nelson Agholor9.45%
Isaiah Likely8.4%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson15296.916.216.69%
Tyler Huntley1105.62.638.5%

Blowouts against close games

4 of his 16 games were blowouts, 32.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.82 in those and 6.47 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2022 · BAL · 15 games

His best game was Week 4 against BUF — 7.7 PPR on 10 touches and a 7.1% target share, in a game that finished 20-23. His worst was Week 17 against PIT at 0, on 0 touches, final score 13-16. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 15 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.9; in the 6 decided by more, 4.2. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.7 points per game. He scored 2.8, 12.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
1NYJ24-93.12272406.9%20%
2MIA38-421.600031600%36%
3NE37-26600066000%47%
4BUF20-237.7221284507.1%36%
7CLE23-200.600052600%31%
8TB27-222.800042800%21%
9NO27-132.911841104.5%25%
11CAR13-36.833873009.4%41%
12JAX27-280.30001300%19%
13DEN10-92.62241205.6%24%
14PIT16-1400000000%3%
15CLE3-132.811151303.6%38%
16ATL17-91.41140006.3%13%
17PIT13-1600000000%33%
18CIN16-273.400073400%22%

Production

Receptions12
Targets12
Receiving yards58
Carries49
Rushing yards262
Touchdowns0
Points per game2.8
Yards per target4.83
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5.35

Role

Snap share27.27%
Target share2.89%
Air-yards share-1.12%
WOPR0.036
RACR-0.14

Efficiency

Average depth of target-2.1
Yards after catch per reception6.9
Yards before catch per reception-2.1
Total YAC83
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted86.8
Receiving EPA per game0.14
Rushing EPA per game-0.21

Scoring position

Red-zone targets1
Red-zone target share1.3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share4.1%
Expected receiving TDs0.13
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.13
Expected rushing TDs0.29

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews24.3%
Demarcus Robinson16.13%
Isaiah Likely12.9%
Devin Duvernay10.54%
Rashod Bateman6.02%
Kenyan Drake5.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson983.534.383.1%
Tyler Huntley541.365.753.1%
Anthony Brown103.40%

2020 · BAL · 11 games

His best game was Week 12 against PIT — 6 PPR on 11 touches and a 11.1% target share, in a game that finished 14-19. His worst was Week 16 against NYG at 0, on 0 touches, final score 27-13. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.5; in the 6 decided by more, 0.9. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.4 points per game. He scored 1.18, 22.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsCarRushTDTgt%Snap%
4WAS31-1700000000%0%
6PHI30-2800000000%0%
9IND24-1000000000%5%
10NE17-231.31130002.9%8%
11TEN24-3000000000%11%
12PIT14-196225935011.1%49%
13DAL34-171.41140005.9%11%
14CLE47-420.40001400%10%
15JAX40-141.81180003.8%9%
16NYG27-1300000000%4%
17CIN38-32.100022100%12%

Production

Receptions5
Targets5
Receiving yards20
Carries12
Rushing yards60
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.18
Yards per target4
Catch rate100%
Yards per carry5

Role

Snap share10.82%
Target share2.15%
Air-yards share-0.46%
WOPR0.029
RACR0.163

Efficiency

Average depth of target-1.4
Yards after catch per reception5.4
Yards before catch per reception-1.4
Total YAC27
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted83.3
Receiving EPA per game-0.27
Rushing EPA per game-0.1

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share4.3%
End-zone target share0%
Red-zone carry share1.9%
Goal-line carry share7.7%
Expected receiving TDs0.6
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.6
Expected rushing TDs0.87

Who else ate

The offense threw it 405 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Marquise Brown25.51%
Mark Andrews22.45%
Willie Snead12.24%
Miles Boykin8.42%
Devin Duvernay6.63%
J.K. Dobbins6.12%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson1030.751.26%
Robert Griffin1262.511.1%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 11 games were blowouts, 40.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.77 in those and 1.54 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

Ask the Coach about Justice Hill →
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