What the expected-points record, the coverage data and the market say he is worth at 118.1 overall.
Mark Andrews scored 131 fantasy points in 2025. The volume he earned was worth 127.1. That gap of 3.9 points is the single most important thing to understand before drafting him at 118.1 overall.
Rather than reading a season average, it is worth finding the point the season actually turned. Our shift detector flags in-season changes large enough to clear a statistical threshold, then asks what moved around them.
The largest single move was Week 4: snap share went down from 78.7 to 58.1, a 26.2% change, at 5.93 standard deviations. The cause was structural — the offence around him got worse at moving the ball. He also missed Week 7.
Year over year the engine classifies 2025 as a role that shrank. That is the label to carry into the projection, because it separates a player who lost snaps from one who kept them and converted worse.
He finished 7.71 points per game on 70 targets — down 28% from his 2024 rate with BAL. Every part of that is real and none of it is in dispute.
What is worth separating is how much of it he earned. Expected points strip out the finishing and ask a narrower question: given the targets he drew, where they came from on the field, and how far downfield they travelled, what was that usage worth? For 2025 the answer was 127.1 points — 7.5 per game. He scored 3.9 more than that, a 3.1% overshoot.
The expected line underneath the season was 50.5 catches for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns, and he cleared it.
1 of his 17 games produced 25 or more points: Week 3 against DET (27.1). Strip it and the remaining 16 games average 6.5.
Spike weeks win fantasy games and a player who produces them is more valuable than one who never does — he is a ceiling play with real weeks off. 12 games came in under 10 points, including Week 1 against BUF (1.5) and Week 2 against CLE (1.4).
The three largest overshoots — Week 3 (+16.2), Week 9 (+11.2), Week 11 (+6.6) — are the same games. The spikes were not extra volume. They were finishing.
1 of his 6 seasons ran hot: 2021 (+12.7%). Across all 6 he has scored 118.2 points more than his usage was worth.
The reflexive read is regression. Finishing above expectation is unstable, and a player who does it repeatedly is usually one whose luck has not run out yet.
But an expected-points model has a specific blind spot, and it is worth naming: it converts usage at league-average rates. A target twenty yards downfield is worth what the average receiver does with a target twenty yards downfield. If a player is reliably better than average at winning a particular kind of target, he will beat the model every single year, and calling that luck is just mislabelling a skill.
So the question is not whether he beat the number. It is whether there is a mechanism.
Across 337 targets and four seasons, he has been a fundamentally different receiver depending on what the defence played. Against man he has caught 69.3% for 7.83 yards per target and 0.4 expected points added per target. Against zone: 70.9%, 8.05 yards, 0.253 EPA.
That is a gap of 0.147 EPA per target on a sample of 163 man targets against 172 zone. The catch rate goes the other way — he catches more against zone — which is exactly what you would expect from a receiver whose value is in winning contested downfield throws rather than in finding soft spots underneath.
The shell detail sharpens it. Cover 1, single-high man is the look he has faced most: 133 targets, 8.5 yards per target, 0.339 EPA. His best is Cover 0, all-out pressure with no safety help at 0.427 on 23 targets.
The weakness is specific. Against Cover 3 he has caught 70% for 7.53 yards a target and 0.113 EPA across 80 looks — a gap of 0.3 expected points a target between his best coverage and his worst.
This does not prove the overshoot repeats. It does mean the pattern has a stated cause rather than being a coin that keeps landing heads.
Across 64 graded prop lines, he has gone over 46.9% of the time. On receiving yards specifically the number is 45.2% across 31 lines, missing the posted number by an average of 0.1%.
That is close enough to a coin flip that the market has him fairly priced on his primary market. There is no edge to claim in either direction.
Touchdowns are the control. His anytime-TD market implied a 33.7% rate and he converted at 41.9% — a gap of 8.2 points, which is worth noting.
Baltimore returns 4 of 6 continuity slots — qb1, wr1, rb1, te1 — with Lamar Jackson at quarterback, Jesse Minter as head coach and Declan Doyle calling it. The offence projects to 30 pass attempts a game at medium confidence.
The pie is stable. His slice is the question. Our share model has him at 14.5% against the 17.1% he ran, with a range of 12.7% to 16.7%.
That number is built from 25 comparable players — same age band, same prior share, same team, same coordinator — not from a depth chart. The closest three went Eric Ebron 17% to 5.7%, Hunter Henry 17.3% to 16.6%, Hunter Henry 16.6% to 12.4%. Two held, one fell hard.
Across 4,488 player-seasons we swept every stat for whether it predicts NEXT year's points, and kept only the ones that replicated in all five. target share (r 0.247), WOPR (r 0.218), air-yards share (r 0.142) carry. receiving EPA per game (r -0.127) and yards per target (r -0.114) and week-to-week volatility (r -0.075) run negative — a player who was hyper-efficient on low volume tends to come back down, so a gaudy per-touch number is a warning rather than a selling point.
So the figures worth weighing for him: a 17.1% target share, 16.3% of the air yards, a WOPR of 0.37, on the field for 61.7% of snaps. He averaged 1.89 yards of separation against 2.61 yards of cushion, and lost 0.36 yards after the catch above expectation. He finished 18 at the position — TE2.
Vegas sets an implied total for every team every week, and some offences beat theirs systematically. Over 108 games, BAL has come in +0.84 points against its own implied total, clearing it in 54% of weeks.
That is close to neutral — the offence performs about where the market expects, so there is no environment bonus or penalty to apply to him either way.
One related finding worth carrying: across 1,280 cases we measured what happens after a team's implied total slides, and the correlation is -0.37 — negative, meaning the market over-corrects. A falling team total is more often a buying window than a warning.
Our board has him at 133.8 points, 8.8 per game across 15.2 expected games — 49.1 catches, 476 yards, 6 touchdowns. That is TE4, 122 overall, and -21 points of value over a replacement starter.
It is a step down from 2025, and the reason is volume rather than efficiency. The projection assumes he keeps doing what he does on slightly fewer looks.
has genuinely looked like he's aging faster than his actual age the last two seasons, setting career lows across nearly every efficiency and volume metric, and looks physically older/slower on tape than some tight ends who are actually older than him. Some very early, largely unconfirmed camp buzz about a rookie/depth TE getting real reps — worth monitoring, not yet confirmed enough to act on.
That is the current read. It is a change — in 2026-06-05 the position was LIKE: Late double-dip TE shot — ADP very low; expect a small rise. Take one stable late TE + one upside shot rather than a mid-round TE.…
It rests on one of our draft principles:
The books do not agree on him. Mark Andrews is a consensus pick — every book within 13.8 picks of 118. That 13.8-pick gap between Sleeper and Underdog is the practical thing to act on: in a Underdog-priced room he is available later than his consensus number suggests.
He goes at 118.1 overall on consensus, and the books are far apart — 13.8 picks between cheapest and priciest, which is a real value window. He is latest on underdog and earliest on sleeper: sleeper 110.7, espn 123, yahoo 114.2, underdog 127.8, cbs 124.5.
At 118.1 you are paying a WR2 price for a player whose median outcome is a WR2 season with five weeks that win you the game outright and four that lose it. The bust rate of 52% is real and so is the 55% boom rate.
The call: fair value, not a discount. The reason to take him is the ceiling and the betting record. The reason to pass is that you are buying a profile that has beaten its expected output four years running and only needs to stop once.
Ask the Coach about Mark Andrews Every number in this piece, plus your league's roster and scoring, in one answer.Expected points are computed from realised usage — targets, air yards and field position — against league-average conversion, not from projections. Prop records cover 64 graded lines. Projections are anchored to consensus with our engine applied as a capped tilt; the raw engine figure is stated where it differs. Nothing here is betting advice.