Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 1.94 points per game in 2025, usage worth 3.
27 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
Our board has him at 26.9 points, 1.8 per game — 11.7 catches, 104 yards, 0.8 TDs. That is TE5, 325 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 1.6 points per game to a ceiling of 3.4, with the median at 1.8. Boom rate 89%, bust rate 13%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 6.5%, with a bear case of 5.3% and a bull case of 7.5% and a full range of 4.7% to 9%. That comes from 25 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| CeeDee Lamb | 22.7% |
| George Pickens | 21.4% |
| Jake Ferguson | 12.9% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 8.8% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.2% |
| Luke Schoonmaker ← | 6.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
25 historical comps for TEs age ~24, prior share 9.0%, same team, OC continuity. Distribution: median 8.3%, p25-p75 [5.9%, 9.8%], tails [4.7%, 12.6%]. Closest comps: Harrison Bryant 2022→2023 (CLE: 9.8%→5.4%); Ian Thomas 2020→2021 (CAR: 11.1%→6.6%); Tommy Tremble 2023→2024 (CAR: 8.5%→9.8%). Adjustment: -3% from mixed_decline (conflicting signals)
self-anchored 30% to own 9.0% role (1yr), 70% to comp median 8.3%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.4 · neutral |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +2.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -22.2% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Musgrave | 2024 | 1.6 | 71% | -6.8% |
| Drew Sample | 2023 | 3.6 | 70% | +53.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 2023 | 4.1 | 68% | +46.2% |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2024 | 2 | 66% | +18.4% |
| Irv Smith | 2023 | 3.4 | 64% | -41.3% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 2, pick 58 by DAL |
| College | Michigan |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| Height | 6′5″ |
| Weight | 251 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.63s |
| Vertical | 33.5″ |
| Broad jump | 127″ |
| Shuttle | 4.27s |
| Career PPR per game | 3.1 |
| Week-to-week variation | 1.2 |
| Boom rate | 10.3% |
| Bust rate | 31% |
| Games missed per season | 0 |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.31 |
His best game was Week 8 against DEN — 4.5 PPR on 3 targets and a 8.6% target share, in a game that finished 24-44. His worst was Week 12 against PHI at 0, on 1 targets, final score 24-21. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 14 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.6; in the 6 decided by more, 2.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 3 points per game. He scored 1.94, 34.9% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 20-24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | 25% |
| 2 | NYG | 40-37 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 29% |
| 3 | CHI | 14-31 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.3% | 36% |
| 4 | GB | 40-40 | 2.8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.3% | 28% |
| 5 | NYJ | 37-22 | 1.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.1% | 55% |
| 6 | CAR | 27-30 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.9% | 36% |
| 8 | DEN | 24-44 | 4.5 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 8.6% | 39% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-27 | 2.4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5.6% | 19% |
| 12 | PHI | 24-21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 31% |
| 13 | KC | 31-28 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.7% | 32% |
| 14 | DET | 30-44 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 4.3% | 21% |
| 15 | MIN | 26-34 | 3.9 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 2.9% | 30% |
| 17 | WAS | 30-23 | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5.6% | 46% |
| 18 | NYG | 17-34 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 4.3% | 29% |
| Receptions | 14 |
| Targets | 23 |
| Receiving yards | 132 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 1.94 |
| Yards per target | 5.74 |
| Catch rate | 60.87% |
| Snap share | 32.57% |
| Target share | 4.59% |
| Air-yards share | 4.04% |
| WOPR | 0.098 |
| RACR | 2.039 |
| Average depth of target | 7.1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 5.9 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Total YAC | 82 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 76.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.26 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2% |
| End-zone target share | 2.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.3 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.3 |
The offense threw it 624 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.57% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 19.28% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.8% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9.23% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.4% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 6.26% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 13 | 22 | 1.92 | 5.45 | 4.62% |
| Joe Milton | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 12 | 4.3% |
3 of his 14 games were blowouts, 30.2% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.73 in those and 1.64 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 12 against WAS — 14.5 PPR on 4 targets and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 34-26. His worst was Week 15 against CAR at 0, on 0 targets, final score 30-14. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 4.4; in the 4 decided by more, 5.5. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 6.4 points per game. He scored 4.76, 10.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NO | 19-44 | 10.3 | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 14.6% | 40% |
| 3 | BAL | 25-28 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 31% |
| 5 | PIT | 20-17 | 1.8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4.9% | 26% |
| 9 | ATL | 21-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 10 | PHI | 6-34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.4% | 18% |
| 11 | HOU | 10-34 | 11.6 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 | 18.5% | 53% |
| 12 | WAS | 34-26 | 14.5 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 12.5% | 65% |
| 13 | NYG | 27-20 | 8.3 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 16.7% | 66% |
| 14 | CIN | 20-27 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6.5% | 38% |
| 15 | CAR | 30-14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 38% |
| 16 | TB | 26-24 | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | 33% |
| 18 | WAS | 19-23 | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6.1% | 46% |
| Receptions | 27 |
| Targets | 36 |
| Receiving yards | 241 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.76 |
| Yards per target | 6.69 |
| Catch rate | 75% |
| Snap share | 37.92% |
| Target share | 7.52% |
| Air-yards share | 5.5% |
| WOPR | 0.151 |
| RACR | 1.301 |
| Average depth of target | 5.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5.3 |
| Total YAC | 97 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 101.7 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.79 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.4% |
| End-zone target share | 2.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
The offense threw it 635 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 24.56% |
| Jake Ferguson | 13.89% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 12.76% |
| Brandin Cooks | 8.72% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 8.4% |
| Rico Dowdle | 7.92% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 8 | 24 | 4.99 | 7.04 | 7.57% |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 10 | 4.53 | 5.6 | 7.83% |
| Trey Lance | 1 | 2 | 3.6 | 8 | 6.1% |
3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 38.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.3 in those and 4.4 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 11 against CAR — 10.3 PPR on 2 targets and a 5% target share, in a game that finished 33-10. His worst was Week 14 against PHI at 0, on 0 targets, final score 33-13. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.5; in the 9 decided by more, 2.4. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 2.3 points per game. He scored 2.21, 1.8% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYJ | 30-10 | 7.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.7% | 36% |
| 3 | ARI | 16-28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.7% | 23% |
| 4 | NE | 38-3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8.3% | 56% |
| 5 | SF | 10-42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.8% | 41% |
| 8 | LA | 43-20 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 2.9% | 38% |
| 9 | PHI | 23-28 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 16% |
| 10 | NYG | 49-17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.3% | 36% |
| 11 | CAR | 33-10 | 10.3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 5% | 35% |
| 12 | WAS | 45-10 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6.3% | 41% |
| 13 | SEA | 41-35 | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2.5% | 28% |
| 14 | PHI | 33-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 23% |
| 16 | MIA | 20-22 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.1% | 20% |
| Receptions | 8 |
| Targets | 15 |
| Receiving yards | 65 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 2.21 |
| Yards per target | 4.33 |
| Catch rate | 53.33% |
| Snap share | 32.75% |
| Target share | 3.49% |
| Air-yards share | 2.53% |
| WOPR | 0.069 |
| RACR | 0.753 |
| Average depth of target | 5.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 4.8 |
| Total YAC | 27 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.37 |
| Red-zone targets | 5 |
| Red-zone target share | 4.2% |
| End-zone target share | 5.3% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 1.48 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 2 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.52 |
The offense threw it 614 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 29.92% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.86% |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.39% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.07% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.42% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 5.95% |
8 of his 12 games were blowouts, 82.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.74 in those and 1.53 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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