Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.06 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170.1, usage worth 4.1.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
| ESPN | 170.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 215.9 |
| FFA | 282 |
| Goes around | Round 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB94 |
Our board has him at 21.5 points, 1.3 per game — 119 rushing yards, 0.6 rushing TDs, 2.6 catches. That is RB6, 269 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.7 points per game to a ceiling of 2.3, with the median at 1.3. Boom rate 71%, bust rate 48%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 170.1 on consensus and our board has him 269. We rank him 98.9 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
Dallas Cowboys returns 6 of 6 continuity slots — the whole offense is intact. Dak Prescott at quarterback, Brian Schottenheimer as head coach, Klayton Adams calling it. The offense projects to 35.8 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 27.1 rushes.
In: Sam Howell (qb2), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (wr5), Anthony Smith (wr7).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Javonte Williams | 57.2% |
| Malik Davis ← | 22% |
| Phil Mafah | 11.3% |
| Jaydin Blue | 9.5% |
What the offense looks like: Cowboys offense remains essentially the same in 2026 but will be paired with a significantly more competitive defense. This is very important because there were multiple games last year where Cowboys had to pull starters in the 4th quarter because they were getting blown out. This is a high powered offense that can sustain 2 WR1s in fantasy. The real question remains if George Pickens is going to land an extension in Dallas. There is no TRUE line of sight into this yet. Jerry Jones says he wants him to be a Cowboy for the long term, but we can't trust Jerry. If someone paid enough George is gone. Ceedee is not expected to be a top 5 WR with Pickens playing at his 2025 levels, but can absolutely be a top 10 PPR fantasy WR. Ceedee is an elite WR. Cowboys also lock down Javonte Williams on 3 year exention.
Key additions: George Pickens was franchised tagged & will play 2026 season in Dallas (barring trade or hold out).
Key departures: WR Jalen Tolbert signed with Miami Dolphins (minor)
Notes: Dallas has added significantly on defense this offseason and should be VERY competitive. Multiple games last year caused starters to be benched due to blow outs. Dak remains a highly productive aging QB with a well balanced pass and rush offense. Javonte Williams landed massive 3 year extension with Cowboys & George Pickens has been franchised tagged with no current plans to land long term extension. Ceedee Lamb looks to get back on track as a top 5 WR following a rough 2025. Pickens and Ceedee should both be viewed as Dynasty WR1s. Jake Ferguson is expected to also have a great 2026 season. We want to own as many pieces of this offense as we can FOR THE RIGHT PRICE.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Dak Prescott returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (36.7 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 35.7 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 22% |
| Projected carries per game | 4.9 |
| Projected carries, full season | 83 |
| Last season, carries per game | 5.2 |
That is a reduction of 0.3 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 27.1 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: DAL rates 25.7 against a league average of 23, 2.7 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +1.6 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +4.5 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | -4 · harder |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | -2.6 · harder |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved +73.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, RBs crash the following year 59% of the time (hold 41%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 59% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Rivers | 2024 | 3.1 | 86% | -17.7% |
| Craig Reynolds | 2023 | 2.6 | 79% | +46% |
| Sean Tucker | 2024 | 4 | 78% | +47% |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2022 | 2.4 | 76% | 0% |
| Pierre Strong | 2023 | 2.7 | 75% | +2% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 1 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
His best game was Week 15 against MIN — 11.7 PPR on 11 touches and a 8.6% target share, in a game that finished 26-34. His worst was Week 7 against WAS at 0, on 0 touches, final score 44-22. Across 10 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 7 times. In the 4 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 8.8; in the 6 decided by more, 0.9. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.1 points per game. He scored 4.06, 0.2% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | WAS | 44-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1% |
| 8 | DEN | 24-44 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 9 | ARI | 17-27 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 7% |
| 11 | LV | 33-16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 19% |
| 12 | PHI | 24-21 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 13 | KC | 31-28 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 47 | 1 | 0% | 12% |
| 14 | DET | 30-44 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 15 | MIN | 26-34 | 11.7 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 8.6% | 53% |
| 16 | LAC | 17-34 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 0% | 34% |
| 17 | WAS | 30-23 | 10.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 103 | 0 | 5.6% | 50% |
| Receptions | 2 |
| Targets | 5 |
| Receiving yards | 16 |
| Carries | 52 |
| Rushing yards | 250 |
| Touchdowns | 2 |
| Points per game | 4.06 |
| Yards per target | 3.2 |
| Catch rate | 40% |
| Yards per carry | 4.81 |
| Snap share | 20.7% |
| Target share | 1.42% |
| Air-yards share | 0.6% |
| WOPR | 0.025 |
| RACR | 0.123 |
| Average depth of target | 3.6 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 5 |
| Total YAC | 6 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.2% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 48.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.48 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.08 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 9.4% |
| Goal-line carry share | 6.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 1.24 |
The offense threw it 624 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| George Pickens | 22.57% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 19.28% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.8% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 9.23% |
| Javonte Williams | 8.4% |
| Kavontae Turpin | 6.26% |
4 of his 10 games were blowouts, 11.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.15 in those and 8.77 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Carries | 0 |
| Rushing yards | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0 |
| Snap share | 0% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0 |
The offense threw it 614 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 29.92% |
| Jake Ferguson | 16.86% |
| Brandin Cooks | 13.39% |
| Tony Pollard | 11.07% |
| Michael Gallup | 9.42% |
| Jalen Tolbert | 5.95% |
His best game was Week 13 against IND — 8.9 PPR on 3 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 54-19. His worst was Week 18 against WAS at 1.9, on 5 touches, final score 6-26. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 4 times.
His usage that season was worth 5.7 points per game. He scored 5.73, 0.6% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CHI | 49-29 | 6.1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 23 | 0 | 7.7% | 33% |
| 10 | GB | 28-31 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 0% | 13% |
| 11 | MIN | 40-3 | 5.5 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 10% | 18% |
| 13 | IND | 54-19 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 0% | 4% |
| 17 | TEN | 27-13 | 8.2 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4.9% | 33% |
| 18 | WAS | 6-26 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| Receptions | 6 |
| Targets | 7 |
| Receiving yards | 63 |
| Carries | 38 |
| Rushing yards | 161 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 5.73 |
| Yards per target | 9 |
| Catch rate | 85.71% |
| Yards per carry | 4.24 |
| Snap share | 18.33% |
| Target share | 3.77% |
| Air-yards share | -0.77% |
| WOPR | 0.052 |
| RACR | 0.472 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 10.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -0.3 |
| Total YAC | 65 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 104.2 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.13 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.58 |
| Red-zone targets | 2 |
| Red-zone target share | 2.4% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.6% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.26 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.26 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.24 |
The offense threw it 556 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| CeeDee Lamb | 28.62% |
| Dalton Schultz | 16.33% |
| Noah Brown | 13.58% |
| Michael Gallup | 13.58% |
| Tony Pollard | 10.09% |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4.22% |
4 of his 6 games were blowouts, 65.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.6 in those and 3.8 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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