Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.76 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 197.5, usage worth 5.4.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 224.8 |
| ESPN | 170.1 |
| UNDERDOG | 216 |
| FFA | 414 |
| Goes around | Round 17, pick 6 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | RB117 |
| ADP standard deviation | 38.7 picks |
Our board has him at 14.3 points, 0.9 per game — 45 rushing yards, 0.2 rushing TDs, 4.2 catches. That is RB6, 322 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.6 points per game to a ceiling of 1.6, with the median at 0.9. Boom rate 79%, bust rate 33%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 197.5 on consensus and our board has him 322. We rank him 124.5 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.
New Orleans Saints returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing rb1. Tyler Shough at quarterback, Kellen Moore as head coach, Doug Nussmeier calling it. The offense projects to 34.1 pass attempts a game at high confidence and 25.9 rushes.
In: Jordyn Tyson (wr2), Bryce Lance (wr5), Barion Brown (wr6), Bub Means (wr7), Travis Etienne Jr. (rb1), Oscar Delp (te2). Out: Kevin Austin Jr (wr3), Brandin Cooks (wr4), Taysom Hill (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 45.2% |
| Alvin Kamara | 28.9% |
| Kendre Miller ← | 14.5% |
| Devin Neal | 11.5% |
Key additions: signed RB Travis Etienne Jr in free agency on massive 4 year deal. Signed TE Noah Fant. Drafted TE oscar Delp. Drafted WR Jordyn Tyson 8th overall.
Key departures: No key departures
Notes: Saints draft Jordyn Tyson 8th overall. To start he will likely be the 1B in the offense behind Chris Olave. Hurts Olave potential, but Olave is highly talented WR. Shough surrounded with Weapons in New Orleans by signing Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency (lots of potential to be high producer). Alvin Kamara value is toast. Interested to see how Olave & Tyson split target share & if the rest of the offense other than Etienne holds fantasy value. Vele is a slept on and talented WR that could also break out in 2026. His breakout to slow down the Jordyn Tyson full breakout year 1.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Tyler Shough returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (34.4 att/g); Regressed 30% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 34.1 att/g.
| Projected carry share | 14.5% |
| Projected carries per game | 3.1 |
| Projected carries, full season | 52 |
| Last season, carries per game | 6.7 |
That is a reduction of 3.6 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 25.9 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: NO rates 21.4 against a league average of 23, 1.6 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted run defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +3.2 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +0.3 · neutral |
| Weeks 12–17 | +9 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +5.9 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5 | Alvin Kamara | +-0.5 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -12.6% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2021 | 6.1 | 80% | -46.4% |
| Trey Sermon | 2023 | 2.5 | 77% | +96.9% |
| Trey Benson | 2024 | 3.9 | 73% | +12.1% |
| Trey Sermon | 2021 | 4.7 | 72% | -51% |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 2020 | 3.9 | 69% | +6.8% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 3 gained value, 2 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 3, pick 71 by NOR |
| College | TCU |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 215 lb |
His best game was Week 4 against BUF — 12.5 PPR on 11 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 19-31. His worst was Week 7 against CHI at 0.7, on 1 touches, final score 14-26. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.9; in the 4 decided by more, 6.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.4 points per game. He scored 4.76, 11.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 13-20 | 2.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 0% | 15% |
| 2 | SF | 21-26 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 2.9% | 15% |
| 3 | SEA | 13-44 | 5.6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 4.9% | 27% |
| 4 | BUF | 19-31 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 65 | 1 | 0% | 31% |
| 5 | NYG | 26-14 | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 0 | 3.2% | 39% |
| 6 | NE | 19-25 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 3.8% | 39% |
| 7 | CHI | 14-26 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 5 |
| Receiving yards | 30 |
| Carries | 47 |
| Rushing yards | 193 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.76 |
| Yards per target | 6 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.11 |
| Snap share | 24.29% |
| Target share | 2.11% |
| Air-yards share | -0.11% |
| WOPR | 0.033 |
| RACR | -0.619 |
| Average depth of target | -1 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1 |
| Total YAC | 35 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.7 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.42 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 8.1% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.41 |
The offense threw it 591 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 27.71% |
| Juwan Johnson | 18.12% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 11.72% |
| Alvin Kamara | 6.93% |
| Devaughn Vele | 6.93% |
| Brandin Cooks | 4.44% |
1 of his 7 games were blowouts, 16.8% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.6 in those and 2.87 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 14 against NYG — 9.2 PPR on 11 touches and a 3.2% target share, in a game that finished 14-11. His worst was Week 8 against LAC at 1.6, on 3 touches, final score 8-26. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 6.3 points per game. He scored 4.85, 22.4% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DEN | 10-33 | 5.7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 7.7% | 29% |
| 8 | LAC | 8-26 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 14% |
| 14 | NYG | 14-11 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 32 | 1 | 3.2% | 26% |
| 15 | WAS | 19-20 | 4.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 46 | 0 | 3.4% | 47% |
| 16 | GB | 0-34 | 5.1 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 15 | 0 | 7.1% | 39% |
| 17 | LV | 10-25 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2.9% | 13% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 8 |
| Receiving yards | 33 |
| Carries | 39 |
| Rushing yards | 148 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 4.85 |
| Yards per target | 4.13 |
| Catch rate | 62.5% |
| Yards per carry | 3.79 |
| Snap share | 28% |
| Target share | 4.05% |
| Air-yards share | 0.2% |
| WOPR | 0.062 |
| RACR | -0.282 |
| Average depth of target | 0.4 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 6.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 0 |
| Total YAC | 33 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0.3% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 71.4 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.1 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.89 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.7% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.22 |
The offense threw it 551 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Alvin Kamara | 17.35% |
| Juwan Johnson | 12.87% |
| Chris Olave | 8.58% |
| Foster Moreau | 8.38% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 7.99% |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 6.82% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 5 | 7 | 3.98 | 4.71 | 4.22% |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 1 | 9.2 | 0 | 3.2% |
3 of his 6 games were blowouts, 42.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 4.13 in those and 6.9 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 18 against ATL — 14.9 PPR on 14 touches and a 4% target share, in a game that finished 48-17. His worst was Week 4 against TB at 1.8, on 2 touches, final score 9-26. Across 7 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 3 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.6; in the 4 decided by more, 8.2. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 5.8 points per game. He scored 6.19, 5.9% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GB | 17-18 | 4.4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 2.9% | 34% |
| 4 | TB | 9-26 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.6% | 8% |
| 5 | NE | 34-0 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 53 | 12 | 37 | 0 | 16% | 36% |
| 6 | HOU | 13-20 | 2.2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4.3% | 22% |
| 8 | IND | 38-27 | 2.9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3.4% | 14% |
| 9 | CHI | 24-17 | 4.1 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1% | 10% |
| 18 | ATL | 48-17 | 14.9 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 1 | 4% | 36% |
| Receptions | 10 |
| Targets | 11 |
| Receiving yards | 117 |
| Carries | 41 |
| Rushing yards | 156 |
| Touchdowns | 1 |
| Points per game | 6.19 |
| Yards per target | 10.64 |
| Catch rate | 90.91% |
| Yards per carry | 3.8 |
| Snap share | 22.86% |
| Target share | 5.19% |
| Air-yards share | -0.7% |
| WOPR | 0.074 |
| RACR | 0.124 |
| Average depth of target | -0.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 12.8 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -1.1 |
| Total YAC | 128 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 111 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0.8 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.44 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 3.3% |
| Goal-line carry share | 4% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.53 |
The offense threw it 606 times. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Chris Olave | 23.96% |
| Alvin Kamara | 14.93% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 13.02% |
| Michael Thomas | 11.11% |
| Juwan Johnson | 10.24% |
| Taysom Hill | 6.94% |
3 of his 7 games were blowouts, 68.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 9.9 in those and 3.57 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
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