Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 0.77 points per game in 2025, usage worth 0.8.
27 years old · 4 seasons of experience · 2022 draft class
Our board has him at 4.3 points, 0.3 per game — 17 rushing yards, 1.5 catches. That is RB6, 335 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 0.2 points per game to a ceiling of 0.6, with the median at 0.3. Boom rate 88%, bust rate 27%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
Los Angeles Rams returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing oc. Matthew Stafford at quarterback, Sean McVay as head coach, Nate Scheelhaase calling it. The offense projects to 33.5 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 26.5 rushes.
In: Ty Simpson (qb2), Jordan Whittington (wr3), Konata Mumpfield (wr4), CJ Daniels (wr5), Tyler Scott (wr7), Jarquez Hunter (rb4), Max Klare (te2). Out: Tutu Atwell (wr4), Davis Allen (te2).
The projected carry split across the offense:
| Kyren Williams | 60.7% |
| Blake Corum | 31.2% |
| Ronnie Rivers ← | 6.8% |
| Jarquez Hunter | 1.4% |
What the offense looks like: The highest producers in this offense will be incredibly valuable. Ty Simpson should maintain high value in dynasty at least until he starts in 2028 after Stafford leaves.
Key additions: Ty Simpson Drafted 13th overall. TE Max Klare 2nd round. OT Keagen Trost 3rd round. CJ Daniels WR 6th round.
Key departures: RT Rob Havenstein retired.
Notes: Rams draft Ty Simpson in the 1st round but Stafford is rumored to be signing 2 year extension. Simpson likely to sit until 2028 season. Best for him for development. Stafford will play at MVP level until retires more than likely. Puka has had off field trouble and spent time in Rehab, but should be ready by week 1. Rams draft TE Max Klare early & will likely be TE1 ahead of Parkinson but may not be. RB room is confusing, Corum has potential to overtake Kyren Williams in 2026 season. Both backs hold high value if the other is hurt. Adams only has 1 or 2 more years in him.
How the volume number was reached: Same QB Matthew Stafford returning — anchor to 2025 actuals (33.5 att/g); Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 33.5 att/g; New OC Nate Scheelhaase — pass rate and tempo may shift.
| Projected carry share | 6.8% |
| Projected carries per game | 1.5 |
| Projected carries, full season | 25 |
| Last season, carries per game | 1 |
That is an increase of 0.5 carries a game against last season, inside a team projection of 26.5 rushing attempts a game.
Basis: prior usage blend. Carry share is the strongest forward predictor we have measured at the position, so this number carries more weight than any efficiency figure on this page.
Offensive environment: LAR rates 27 against a league average of 23, 4.1 points above it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved 0% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.7 elite seasons and 2.4 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — blended production + pedigree. The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | 2023 | 2.6 | 80% | +46% |
| Julius Chestnut | 2024 | 1.1 | 79% | +27% |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2022 | 2.4 | 76% | 0% |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2022 | 0.6 | 76% | -24.1% |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2024 | 0.5 | 75% | -25% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 2 gained value, 2 lost it and 1 held roughly flat.
| Height | 5′8″ |
| Weight | 195 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.6s |
| Vertical | 36.5″ |
| Broad jump | 119″ |
His best game was Week 14 against ARI — 4.1 PPR on 8 touches and a 0% target share, in a game that finished 45-17. His worst was Week 18 against ARI at 0, on 0 touches, final score 37-20. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 6 times.
His usage that season was worth 0.8 points per game. He scored 0.77, 37% below it. The engine classified the season as low_volume.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | CAR | 28-31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 14 | ARI | 45-17 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 0% | 17% |
| 15 | DET | 41-34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 16 | SEA | 37-38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 17 | ATL | 24-27 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 5% |
| 18 | ARI | 37-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 4% |
| Receptions | 0 |
| Targets | 0 |
| Receiving yards | 0 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 46 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 0.77 |
| Yards per carry | 5.11 |
| Snap share | 4.33% |
| Target share | 0% |
| Air-yards share | 0% |
| WOPR | 0 |
| RACR | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 0 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.18 |
The offense threw it 597 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 28.57% |
| Davante Adams | 19.62% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.64% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.61% |
| Tyler Higbee | 6.2% |
| Davis Allen | 5.68% |
2 of his 6 games were blowouts, 89.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.05 in those and 0.13 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 18 against SEA — 12.2 PPR on 17 touches and a 12.5% target share, in a game that finished 25-30. His worst was Week 7 against LV at 0, on 0 touches, final score 20-15. Across 6 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 5 times.
His usage that season was worth 4.2 points per game. He scored 3.05, 24.8% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 20-26 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0% | 9% |
| 2 | ARI | 10-41 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7% | 6% |
| 3 | SF | 27-24 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 10% |
| 4 | CHI | 18-24 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 7 | LV | 20-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 18 | SEA | 25-30 | 12.2 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 12 | 48 | 0 | 12.5% | 79% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 6 |
| Receiving yards | 34 |
| Carries | 22 |
| Rushing yards | 99 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 3.05 |
| Yards per target | 5.67 |
| Catch rate | 83.33% |
| Yards per carry | 4.5 |
| Snap share | 20.83% |
| Target share | 2.7% |
| Air-yards share | -2.17% |
| WOPR | 0.025 |
| RACR | -0.298 |
| Average depth of target | -4.3 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11.6 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -4.8 |
| Total YAC | 58 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.3 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.49 |
| Red-zone targets | 0 |
| Red-zone target share | 0% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 4.2% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.26 |
The offense threw it 559 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 19.59% |
| Cooper Kupp | 18.48% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 11.83% |
| Tutu Atwell | 11.46% |
| Colby Parkinson | 9.06% |
| Tyler Johnson | 7.58% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 1 | 1.22 | 0 | 0.74% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 5 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 12.5% |
1 of his 6 games were blowouts, 5.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1 in those and 3.46 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 4 against IND — 7.7 PPR on 11 touches and a 5.1% target share, in a game that finished 29-23. His worst was Week 3 against CIN at 0, on 0 touches, final score 16-19. Across 9 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 6 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 2.9; in the 3 decided by more, 0.8. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 4.1 points per game. He scored 2.23, 16.2% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 30-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | SF | 23-30 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9% | 5% |
| 3 | CIN | 16-19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | IND | 29-23 | 7.7 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 47 | 0 | 5.1% | 28% |
| 5 | PHI | 14-23 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 16% |
| 6 | ARI | 26-9 | 2.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 4.8% | 7% |
| 16 | NO | 30-22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 0 | 0% | 21% |
| 17 | NYG | 26-25 | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9% | 6% |
| 18 | SF | 21-20 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 52 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 5 |
| Receiving yards | 22 |
| Carries | 32 |
| Rushing yards | 129 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 2.23 |
| Yards per target | 4.4 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 4.03 |
| Snap share | 14.89% |
| Target share | 1.63% |
| Air-yards share | -0.96% |
| WOPR | 0.019 |
| RACR | -0.811 |
| Average depth of target | -3.8 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 8.2 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -3.8 |
| Total YAC | 41 |
| Broken tackles | 0 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 85 |
| Rushing yards over expected | 0 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.51 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.2% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.14 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.14 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0 |
The offense threw it 583 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Puka Nacua | 28.83% |
| Cooper Kupp | 17.12% |
| Tyler Higbee | 12.61% |
| Tutu Atwell | 12.07% |
| Kyren Williams | 8.65% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 7.03% |
He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 8 | 5 | 1.86 | 4.4 | 1.84% |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 0 | 5.2 | — | 0% |
2 of his 9 games were blowouts, 11.4% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 1.15 in those and 2.95 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His usage that season was worth 6.6 points per game. He scored 5, 23.7% below it. The engine classified the season as unlucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | Car | Rush | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | CAR | 24-10 | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2% | 5% |
| 8 | SF | 14-31 | 7.6 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 12.5% | 36% |
| Receptions | 5 |
| Targets | 5 |
| Receiving yards | 29 |
| Carries | 9 |
| Rushing yards | 21 |
| Touchdowns | 0 |
| Points per game | 5 |
| Yards per target | 5.8 |
| Catch rate | 100% |
| Yards per carry | 2.33 |
| Snap share | 20.5% |
| Target share | 7.85% |
| Air-yards share | -9.3% |
| WOPR | 0.055 |
| RACR | -2.09 |
| Average depth of target | -5.2 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 11 |
| Yards before catch per reception | -5.2 |
| Total YAC | 55 |
| Broken tackles | 2 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 90.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -1.84 |
| Red-zone targets | 1 |
| Red-zone target share | 1.5% |
| End-zone target share | 0% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.8% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 0.13 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 0 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.13 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.06 |
The offense threw it 529 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Tyler Higbee | 20.93% |
| Cooper Kupp | 18.99% |
| Ben Skowronek | 11.82% |
| Allen Robinson | 10.08% |
| Van Jefferson | 8.53% |
| Tutu Atwell | 6.78% |