Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 9.65 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 114.9, usage worth 9.6.
24 years old · 3 seasons of experience · 2023 draft class
| SLEEPER | 103.6 |
| ESPN | 123.5 |
| YAHOO | 118.7 |
| UNDERDOG | 90.2 |
| CBS | 113.9 |
| FFA | 100 |
| Goes around | Round 10, pick 7 in a 12-team draft |
| Positional rank | WR46 |
| Bye week | 6 |
| ADP standard deviation | 8.5 picks |
Our board has him at 169.5 points, 10.3 per game — 58 catches, 794 yards, 5 TDs. That is WR5, 100 overall.
The range runs from a floor of 7.4 points per game to a ceiling of 15.8, with the median at 10.3. Boom rate 53%, bust rate 28%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.
He goes at 114.9 on consensus and our board has him 100. We rank him 14.9 picks better than the room drafts him, so the market is underpricing him — that is the disagreement worth acting on.
the clear forgotten name of the tier after last year's QB collapse dragged the whole passing offense down with him; before that, he'd finished as a top-25-ish WR in each of his first two seasons, largely on the strength of consistent one-on-one coverage created by playing opposite Justin Jefferson. Essentially no path to a truly elite ceiling unless Jefferson gets hurt, but a high floor of "return to his established level" if the Kyler Murray upgrade fixes the QB situation as expected.
watch · medium conviction · 2026-08Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.
In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).
His own projected target share for 2026 is 18.3%, with a bear case of 17.4% and a bull case of 19.8% and a full range of 15.5% to 21%. That comes from 29 historical comparables, not from a depth chart.
The projected target split across the offense:
| Justin Jefferson | 26.5% |
| Jordan Addison ← | 18.3% |
| TJ Hockenson | 16.6% |
| Aaron Jones | 9.8% |
| Tai Felton | 7.7% |
| Jordan Mason | 5.6% |
What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.
Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).
Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target
Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.
How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.
29 historical comps for WRs age ~24, prior share 19.0%, same team, OC continuity, QB change. Distribution: median 18.3%, p25-p75 [16.2%, 22.0%], tails [11.5%, 25.0%]. Closest comps: D.J. Chark 2020→2021 (JAX: 20.4%→18.3%); Marquez Callaway 2021→2022 (NO: 18.7%→10.4%); Brandon Aiyuk 2020→2021 (SF: 21.9%→18.3%).
self-anchored 58% to own 19.0% role (3yr), 42% to comp median 18.3%
The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.
Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).
Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.
| Full season | +2.7 · easier |
| Weeks 1–6 | +3.1 · easier |
| Weeks 12–17 | +3.6 · easier |
| Fantasy playoffs (15–17) | +12.3 · easier |
Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.
From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.
| Season | Games missed | Main beneficiary | Their PPR gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | Jalen Nailor | +7.4 |
Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.
His dynasty value has moved -15.1% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as stable.
For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 2.1 elite seasons and 2.6 startable seasons.
Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.
| Player | Season | Their PPG | Similarity | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 2022 | 13.6 | 61% | -12.7% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2021 | 10 | 54% | +6.6% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2022 | 13.4 | 53% | +48.3% |
| George Pickens | 2023 | 12.3 | 53% | +20.4% |
| Michael Pittman | 2022 | 13.5 | 52% | +37.9% |
Of the 5 with a following season on record, 4 gained value, 1 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.
| Drafted | 2023, round 1, pick 23 by MIN |
| College | USC |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| Height | 5′11″ |
| Weight | 173 lb |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49s |
| Vertical | 34″ |
| Broad jump | 122″ |
| Career PPR per game | 11.8 |
| Week-to-week variation | 0.8 |
| Boom rate | 27% |
| Bust rate | 27% |
| Games missed per season | 0.7 |
| Injury history | Ankle |
| Correlation between his posted line and his actual score | 0.13 |
That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.
Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.
His best game was Week 7 against PHI — 21.8 PPR on 12 targets and a 30% target share, in a game that finished 22-28. His worst was Week 12 against GB at 0, on 1 targets, final score 6-23. Across 14 games he cleared 20 points 1 time and came in under 8 points 4 times. In the 8 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 11.3; in the 6 decided by more, 7.5. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 9.6 points per game. He scored 9.65, 0.1% above it. The engine classified the season as neutral.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PIT | 21-24 | 15.4 | 4 | 8 | 114 | 0 | 19% | 96% |
| 5 | CLE | 21-17 | 15.1 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 | 17.6% | 75% |
| 7 | PHI | 22-28 | 21.8 | 9 | 12 | 128 | 0 | 30% | 93% |
| 8 | LAC | 10-37 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 13.3% | 86% |
| 9 | DET | 27-24 | 8.4 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 17.4% | 92% |
| 10 | BAL | 19-27 | 6.5 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 26.8% | 95% |
| 11 | CHI | 17-19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 21.9% | 96% |
| 12 | GB | 6-23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 98% |
| 13 | SEA | 0-26 | 8.6 | 5 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 34.5% | 92% |
| 14 | WAS | 31-0 | 10.2 | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 30.4% | 67% |
| 15 | DAL | 34-26 | 8.6 | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8.3% | 64% |
| 16 | NYG | 16-13 | 4.6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 13% | 67% |
| 17 | DET | 23-10 | 12.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7.1% | 78% |
| 18 | GB | 16-3 | 1.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 10% | 93% |
| Receptions | 42 |
| Targets | 79 |
| Receiving yards | 610 |
| Carries | 2 |
| Rushing yards | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 4 |
| Points per game | 9.65 |
| Yards per target | 7.72 |
| Catch rate | 53.16% |
| Yards per carry | 40.5 |
| Snap share | 85.14% |
| Target share | 18.21% |
| Air-yards share | 32.99% |
| WOPR | 0.505 |
| RACR | 0.534 |
| Average depth of target | 13.7 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.3 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 11.2 |
| Total YAC | 138 |
| Broken tackles | 1 |
| Drop rate | 0.1% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 70.1 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.56 |
| Red-zone targets | 13 |
| Red-zone target share | 17.8% |
| End-zone target share | 21.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 3.29 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 3 |
| Receiving TD luck | -0.29 |
The offense threw it 484 times. He took 16.95% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.26% |
| Jordan Addison ← | 16.95% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 14.16% |
| Jalen Nailor | 11.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 8.8% |
| Josh Oliver | 4.08% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 8 | 38 | 6.26 | 6.97 | 16.67% |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 30 | 15.97 | 10.3 | 19.97% |
| Max Brosmer | 2 | 11 | 10.55 | 3.27 | 20.8% |
4 of his 14 games were blowouts, 22.5% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 7.6 in those and 11.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
His best game was Week 14 against ATL — 39.3 PPR on 12 targets and a 42.9% target share, in a game that finished 42-21. His worst was Week 18 against DET at 1, on 6 targets, final score 9-31. Across 15 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 9 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 14.8; in the 6 decided by more, 13.2. He scored more when the game was live.
His usage that season was worth 11.9 points per game. He scored 14.17, 15.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 6 against 4.78 expected, a gap of 1.2.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 28-6 | 6.5 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 17.4% | 51% |
| 4 | GB | 31-29 | 22.9 | 3 | 4 | 72 | 2 | 14.8% | 66% |
| 5 | NYJ | 23-17 | 6.6 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 28.6% | 89% |
| 7 | DET | 29-31 | 9.6 | 3 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 15.4% | 85% |
| 8 | LA | 20-30 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 13% | 92% |
| 9 | IND | 21-13 | 16.1 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 15.2% | 92% |
| 10 | JAX | 12-7 | 4.9 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 13.5% | 74% |
| 11 | TEN | 23-13 | 15.1 | 3 | 8 | 61 | 1 | 26.7% | 60% |
| 12 | CHI | 30-27 | 30.2 | 8 | 9 | 162 | 1 | 28.1% | 94% |
| 13 | ARI | 23-22 | 9.4 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 20% | 94% |
| 14 | ATL | 42-21 | 39.3 | 8 | 12 | 133 | 3 | 42.9% | 75% |
| 15 | CHI | 30-12 | 13.3 | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 | 24.3% | 86% |
| 16 | SEA | 27-24 | 14.5 | 5 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 22.9% | 89% |
| 17 | GB | 27-25 | 18.9 | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 | 19.5% | 90% |
| 18 | DET | 9-31 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15.8% | 89% |
| Receptions | 63 |
| Targets | 99 |
| Receiving yards | 875 |
| Carries | 3 |
| Rushing yards | 20 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 14.17 |
| Yards per target | 8.84 |
| Catch rate | 63.64% |
| Yards per carry | 6.67 |
| Snap share | 81.73% |
| Target share | 21.21% |
| Air-yards share | 29.72% |
| WOPR | 0.525 |
| RACR | 0.732 |
| Average depth of target | 13 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.4 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 10.5 |
| Total YAC | 213 |
| Broken tackles | 3 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 113.8 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 2.35 |
| Rushing EPA per game | 0.18 |
| Red-zone targets | 18 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.4% |
| End-zone target share | 16.7% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.5% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.78 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 6 |
| Receiving TD luck | 1.22 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.14 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 23 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 17 of 51 |
| Target share | 35 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 29 of 51 |
The offense threw it 548 times. He took 19.37% of the targets. 1 team-mate cleared the competing-target threshold.
| Justin Jefferson | 30.14% |
| Jordan Addison ← | 19.37% |
| Aaron Jones | 12.13% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 12.13% |
| Jalen Nailor | 8.22% |
| Josh Oliver | 5.48% |
4 of his 15 games were blowouts, 28.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 15.02 in those and 14.79 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.
His best game was Week 7 against SF — 31.3 PPR on 10 targets and a 23.3% target share, in a game that finished 22-17. His worst was Week 4 against CAR at 0, on 1 targets, final score 21-13. Across 17 games he cleared 20 points 3 times and came in under 8 points 5 times. In the 14 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 12.7; in the 3 decided by more, 14.3. He scored more when the game was not close.
His usage that season was worth 10.9 points per game. He scored 13.02, 19.2% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.
| Wk | Opp | Score | PPR | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt% | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 17-20 | 16.1 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 13.6% | 56% |
| 2 | PHI | 28-34 | 16.2 | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 | 11.6% | 69% |
| 3 | LAC | 24-28 | 11.2 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 16.7% | 71% |
| 4 | CAR | 21-13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.6% | 58% |
| 5 | KC | 20-27 | 18.4 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 | 19.6% | 75% |
| 6 | CHI | 19-13 | 11.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 16.7% | 86% |
| 7 | SF | 22-17 | 31.3 | 7 | 10 | 123 | 2 | 23.3% | 74% |
| 8 | GB | 24-10 | 21.4 | 7 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 23.5% | 94% |
| 9 | ATL | 31-28 | 10.2 | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 | 20% | 97% |
| 10 | NO | 27-19 | 10.9 | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 | 21.9% | 97% |
| 11 | DEN | 20-21 | 7.4 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 20.7% | 95% |
| 12 | CHI | 10-12 | 9.9 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 33.3% | 96% |
| 14 | LV | 3-0 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 9.1% | 96% |
| 15 | CIN | 24-27 | 29.1 | 6 | 6 | 111 | 2 | 18.8% | 91% |
| 16 | DET | 24-30 | 1.2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11.4% | 38% |
| 17 | GB | 10-33 | 5.8 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 16.1% | 92% |
| 18 | DET | 20-30 | 15.7 | 4 | 8 | 57 | 1 | 18.6% | 93% |
| Receptions | 70 |
| Targets | 108 |
| Receiving yards | 911 |
| Carries | 1 |
| Rushing yards | 2 |
| Touchdowns | 10 |
| Points per game | 13.02 |
| Yards per target | 8.44 |
| Catch rate | 64.81% |
| Yards per carry | 2 |
| Snap share | 81.06% |
| Target share | 17.68% |
| Air-yards share | 28.04% |
| WOPR | 0.462 |
| RACR | 0.725 |
| Average depth of target | 12.5 |
| Yards after catch per reception | 3.7 |
| Yards before catch per reception | 9.3 |
| Total YAC | 262 |
| Broken tackles | 4 |
| Drop rate | 0% |
| Passer rating when targeted | 91.2 |
| Receiving EPA per game | 1.54 |
| Rushing EPA per game | -0.02 |
| Red-zone targets | 17 |
| Red-zone target share | 19.8% |
| End-zone target share | 27% |
| Red-zone carry share | 1.9% |
| Expected receiving TDs | 4.15 |
| Actual receiving TDs | 5 |
| Receiving TD luck | 0.85 |
| Expected rushing TDs | 0.05 |
Against everyone in the 80+ targets pool that season:
| Points per game | 29 of 51 |
| Yards per target | 23 of 51 |
| Target share | 42 of 51 |
| Air-yards share | 33 of 51 |
The offense threw it 631 times. He took 18.09% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.
| T.J. Hockenson | 21.27% |
| Jordan Addison ← | 18.09% |
| Justin Jefferson | 16.75% |
| K.J. Osborn | 12.56% |
| Brandon Powell | 7.37% |
| Alexander Mattison | 7.37% |
He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.
| QB | Games | Targets | PPG | Y/T | Tgt% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 8 | 52 | 15.8 | 9.27 | 16.32% |
| Joshua Dobbs | 5 | 33 | 8.62 | 7 | 21% |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | 23 | 12.95 | 8.61 | 16.23% |
1 of his 17 games were blowouts, 2.6% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 5.8 in those and 12.74 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.
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