TE · MIN · GWTTKB

Josh Oliver — fantasy football 2026

Every game, every stat category, and what the board says. 4.58 points per game in 2025, an ADP of 170, usage worth 2.9.

29 years old · 7 seasons of experience · 2019 draft class

Updated 2026-08-16 · free, no account, no paywall
Every figure below comes from our database. Where a stat is not held, the row is absent rather than zero.
ADP 170
Consensus across 1 books, 0 picks between cheapest and priciest. Cheapest on underdog, priciest on espn.
ESPN170
UNDERDOG216
FFA258

Draft-room facts

Goes aroundRound 15, pick 2 in a 12-team draft
Positional rankTE42

What we project for 2026

Our board has him at 54.3 points, 3.6 per game — 23 catches, 223 yards, 1.5 TDs. That is TE5, 246 overall.

The range runs from a floor of 2.4 points per game to a ceiling of 7.1, with the median at 3.6. Boom rate 98%, bust rate 32%. The spread is the actual bet, not the middle number.

He goes at 170 on consensus and our board has him 246. We rank him 76 picks worse than the room drafts him. At that distance it is a fade: we do not want him anywhere near his ADP.

The offense he plays in, 2026

Minnesota Vikings returns 5 of 6 continuity slots, replacing qb1. Kyler Murray at quarterback, Kevin O'Connell as head coach, Wes Phillips calling it. The offense projects to 32.6 pass attempts a game at medium confidence and 25 rushes.

In: Kyler Murray (qb), Dontae Fleming (wr5), Dillon Bell (wr7), Desmond Claiborne (rb3). Out: Carson Wentz (qb), Jalen Nailor (wr3), Adam Thielen (wr4).

His own projected target share for 2026 is 2.9%, with a bear case of 1.2% and a bull case of 4.3%.

The projected target split across the offense:

Justin Jefferson26.5%
Jordan Addison18.3%
TJ Hockenson16.6%
Aaron Jones9.8%
Tai Felton7.7%
Jordan Mason5.6%

Our written view on this offense in 2026

What the offense looks like: Jefferson and Addison have all the talent in the world they & KOC is an elite coach, but this team needs to feed them. This RB room struggled last year. Difficult to say if Aaron Jones & Jordan mason regressed or if teams just focused on stopping the run to force JJ McCarthy to throw them another Pick 6. Either way, running game has to get established in 2026. Likely a committee as Aaron Jones was expected to be cut but took a pay cut to come back.

Key additions: Kyler Murray QB from Cardinals (former 1st overall pick).

Key departures: Jalen Nailor WR3 left to Raiders in free agency. Pretty solid loss that opens up a decent target

Notes: Jefferson dynasty cornerstone regardless of QB. Vikings sign Kyler Murray from Cardinals who is looking to turn around career. Kyler will compete with McCarthy for QB1 spot but JJ Nine McCarthy is BOOTY CHEEKS, so Kyler will start & could elevate offense a lot. Jefferson long term value there regardless of QB, Addison is great WR but volume still isnt there, interesting buy if can get him for cheap. Aaron Jones may phase out and took a pay cut to stay. Mason is mid. Rookie RB Claiborne COULD build out a role if he can beat out Mason. Hockenson should be better than last year but his play has declined a lot.

How the volume number was reached: New QB Kyler Murray, avg 32 att/g over 2025,2024; Regressed 42% toward league mean 33.5, floored at 30 → 32.6 att/g.

How that share projection was built

Depth/practice piece (holdover_no_qualifying_multi_year_sample) — slot prior 3.0% baseline.

The named comps are the closest historical matches and the arrow is what their share actually did the following season. That is the working, not a summary of it — if you disagree with the projection, this is the part to argue with.

Offensive environment: MIN rates 22.2 against a league average of 23, 0.8 below it on opponent-adjusted least squares (multi-capture merge).

2026 schedule

Opponent-adjusted pass defense faced, against 2025 ratings. Positive is an easier slate.

Full season+2.7 · easier
Weeks 1–6+3.1 · easier
Weeks 12–17+3.6 · easier
Fantasy playoffs (15–17)+12.3 · easier

Read this narrowly. Our own testing found that season-long strength of schedule does not survive as a draft input — defensive quality is among the least stable team properties year to year, and a preseason slate is built on last year's identities. The playoff-weeks column is the only one we would let break a tie, and even then it is a tiebreaker rather than a reason. The finding.

What happened when he missed time

From the absence record rather than a depth chart — who actually gained when he was out.

SeasonGames missedMain beneficiaryTheir PPR gain
20242T.J. Hockenson+4.9
20252Ben Yurosek+-0.9

Dynasty context not redraft

Everything in this section is about his dynasty trade value — what he is worth as a long-term asset in the trade market. It is not a forecast of his 2026 fantasy scoring. A player can be a fine redraft pick while his dynasty value falls, and the reverse. The redraft read is above; this is a different question with a different answer.

Where he sits in the dynasty value cycle

His dynasty value has moved +46.8% over the last twelve months. The market cycle classifies him as post-spike. The base rate that applies: after a +30% spike, TEs crash the following year 47% of the time (hold 53%). That puts the measured risk of his dynasty value falling sharply over the next year at 47% — a probability drawn from comparable historical seasons, not a prediction, and not a statement about his 2026 scoring.

For context on how long this lasts at the position: the average career at his position produces 1.3 elite seasons and 2.3 startable seasons.

The five most similar seasons, and what their dynasty value did next

Matched on production profile — production-driven (pedigree ignored). The last column is how that player’s dynasty value moved the following year — a market outcome, not a scoring one.

PlayerSeasonTheir PPGSimilarityNext year
Austin Hooper2023373%+46.1%
Adam Trautman20243.473%+2.9%
Dawson Knox20244.271%+13.1%
Jonnu Smith20224.367%+78.8%
Drew Sample20233.664%+53.8%

Of the 5 with a following season on record, 5 gained value, 0 lost it and 0 held roughly flat.

Four years of dynasty value

0202120222023202420252026
Monthly superflex value, 2020-04 to 2026-07. Up 172% across the series, peaking at 869.

The player

Draft capital and athletic profile

Drafted2019, round 3, pick 69 by JAX
CollegeSan Jose St.
Age at draft22
Height6′5″
Weight249 lb
40-yard dash4.63s
Vertical34″
Broad jump117″
3-cone7.21s
Shuttle4.47s

Availability and volatility

Career PPR per game3.8
Week-to-week variation1.2
Boom rate13.3%
Bust rate44.4%
Games missed per season0.8
Injury historyAnkle, Foot
Correlation between his posted line and his actual score-0.22

That correlation is how closely the books’ posted line tracked what he actually scored, week to week. A higher number means the market has him figured out and there is less to exploit; a lower one means his weeks are harder to price.

Injury type matters more than games missed. Measured across our injury database, knee and foot returns stay below a player’s pre-injury baseline for all three of the first games back, while hamstring returns over-recover by the third.

The record, season by season

2025 · MIN · 12 games

His best game was Week 14 against WAS — 16.4 PPR on 2 targets and a 8.7% target share, in a game that finished 31-0. His worst was Week 4 against PIT at 0, on 1 targets, final score 21-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 9 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.2; in the 5 decided by more, 6.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.9 points per game. He scored 4.58, 59.4% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.18 expected, a gap of 1.8.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1CHI27-241.511505%48%
3CIN48-108.2111214.2%35%
4PIT21-24001002.4%28%
5CLE21-1711.5233518.8%45%
7PHI22-281.911902.5%46%
11CHI17-190.711-303.1%35%
12GB6-231.411405.6%55%
14WAS31-016.4222428.7%62%
15DAL34-262.8111804.2%62%
16NYG16-133.92319013%52%
17DET23-101.8128014.3%93%
18GB16-34.9222906.7%46%

Production

Receptions15
Targets19
Receiving yards160
Touchdowns4
Points per game4.58
Yards per target8.42
Catch rate78.95%

Role

Snap share50.58%
Target share6.54%
Air-yards share3.7%
WOPR0.123
RACR1.88

Efficiency

Average depth of target3.4
Yards after catch per reception6.8
Yards before catch per reception3.9
Total YAC102
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted141.3
Receiving EPA per game0.88

Scoring position

Red-zone targets6
Red-zone target share8.2%
End-zone target share0%
Expected receiving TDs1.18
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck1.82

Who else ate

The offense threw it 484 times. He took 4.08% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson30.26%
Jordan Addison16.95%
T.J. Hockenson14.16%
Jalen Nailor11.37%
Aaron Jones8.8%
Josh Oliver 4.08%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
J.J. McCarthy7114.518.736.61%
Carson Wentz465.49.334.47%
Max Brosmer121.8414.3%

Blowouts against close games

3 of his 12 games were blowouts, 47.3% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 8.67 in those and 3.19 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

2024 · MIN · 12 games

His best game was Week 9 against IND — 16.8 PPR on 5 targets and a 15.2% target share, in a game that finished 21-13. His worst was Week 16 against SEA at 0, on 1 targets, final score 27-24. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 8 times. In the 5 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 7.3; in the 7 decided by more, 4.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4.3 points per game. He scored 5.48, 31.2% above it. The engine classified the season as very_lucky. On receiving touchdowns specifically he finished 3 against 1.11 expected, a gap of 1.9.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1NYG28-64.7222708.7%47%
3HOU34-7001004%49%
4GB31-299221017.4%68%
7DET29-311.511503.8%58%
8LA20-3011223018.7%70%
9IND21-1316.85558115.2%56%
10JAX12-79.24652016.2%68%
11TEN23-136.43334010%56%
14ATL42-213.6122607.1%50%
15CHI30-12000000%47%
16SEA27-24001002.9%47%
18DET9-313.6231607.9%46%

Production

Receptions22
Targets28
Receiving yards258
Touchdowns3
Points per game5.48
Yards per target9.21
Catch rate78.57%

Role

Snap share55.17%
Target share7.66%
Air-yards share6.99%
WOPR0.163
RACR1.266

Efficiency

Average depth of target7.8
Yards after catch per reception5.9
Yards before catch per reception5.9
Total YAC129
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted140.8
Receiving EPA per game1.41

Scoring position

Red-zone targets3
Red-zone target share3.2%
End-zone target share5.6%
Expected receiving TDs1.11
Actual receiving TDs3
Receiving TD luck1.89

Who else ate

The offense threw it 548 times. He took 5.48% of the targets. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Justin Jefferson30.14%
Jordan Addison19.37%
Aaron Jones12.13%
T.J. Hockenson12.13%
Jalen Nailor8.22%
Josh Oliver 5.48%

Blowouts against close games

5 of his 12 games were blowouts, 18.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.38 in those and 7.3 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2023 · MIN · 13 games

His best game was Week 11 against DEN — 14.7 PPR on 4 targets and a 13.8% target share, in a game that finished 20-21. His worst was Week 14 against LV at 0, on 1 targets, final score 3-0. Across 13 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 4 points per game. He scored 4.1, 10.1% above it. The engine classified the season as lucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1TB17-206.2333206.8%47%
2PHI28-343.3231307%34%
3LAC24-288.422414.2%33%
4CAR21-13000000%46%
5KC20-270.5121504.3%35%
7SF22-172.622604.7%43%
9ATL31-282.122105.7%32%
11DEN20-2114.74447113.8%46%
14LV3-0001003%39%
15CIN24-273.4221406.3%51%
16DET24-304.3123305.7%36%
17GB10-332.7121706.5%45%
18DET20-305.1233107%53%

Production

Receptions22
Targets28
Receiving yards213
Touchdowns2
Points per game4.1
Yards per target7.61
Catch rate78.57%

Role

Snap share41.54%
Target share5.77%
Air-yards share2.01%
WOPR0.1
RACR1.915

Efficiency

Average depth of target2.6
Yards after catch per reception7.4
Yards before catch per reception2.3
Total YAC162
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted122.2
Receiving EPA per game0.32

Scoring position

Red-zone targets5
Red-zone target share5.8%
End-zone target share8.1%
Expected receiving TDs1.68
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck0.32

Who else ate

The offense threw it 631 times. 3 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

T.J. Hockenson21.27%
Jordan Addison18.09%
Justin Jefferson16.75%
K.J. Osborn12.56%
Brandon Powell7.37%
Alexander Mattison7.37%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Kirk Cousins6123.55.834.5%
Nick Mullens493.8710.566.38%
Joshua Dobbs375.66.867.5%

Blowouts against close games

1 of his 13 games were blowouts, 5.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 2.7 in those and 4.14 in close games — his scoring did not depend on garbage time.

2022 · BAL · 12 games

His best game was Week 12 against JAX — 17.6 PPR on 6 targets and a 20% target share, in a game that finished 27-28. His worst was Week 18 against CIN at 0, on 1 targets, final score 16-27. Across 12 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 10 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 3.5; in the 5 decided by more, 3.2. He scored more when the game was live.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 3.6 points per game. He scored 3.41, 3.8% below it. The engine classified the season as neutral.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
3NE37-268.822817.4%40%
5CIN19-17001003.7%35%
6NYG20-244.1232109.4%36%
7CLE23-20001006.3%48%
8TB27-221.411402.9%50%
9NO27-132.91319013.6%65%
11CAR13-31.211203.1%33%
12JAX27-2817.64676120%61%
15CLE3-133.3221307.1%41%
16ATL17-91.6136018.8%81%
17PIT13-16001005%58%
18CIN16-27001002.4%44%

Production

Receptions14
Targets25
Receiving yards149
Touchdowns2
Points per game3.41
Yards per target5.96
Catch rate56%

Role

Snap share49.33%
Target share8.31%
Air-yards share7.63%
WOPR0.178
RACR1.131

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.3
Yards after catch per reception5.3
Yards before catch per reception5.4
Total YAC74
Broken tackles1
Drop rate0.1%
Passer rating when targeted100.2
Receiving EPA per game0.41

Scoring position

Red-zone targets10
Red-zone target share12.7%
End-zone target share12.5%
Expected receiving TDs2.1
Actual receiving TDs2
Receiving TD luck-0.1

Who else ate

The offense threw it 488 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews24.3%
Demarcus Robinson16.13%
Isaiah Likely12.9%
Devin Duvernay10.54%
Rashod Bateman6.02%
Kenyan Drake5.59%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 3 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson8184.57.228.3%
Tyler Huntley361.633.1710.3%
Anthony Brown11002.4%

2021 · BAL · 11 games

His best game was Week 7 against CIN — 4.9 PPR on 5 targets and a 12.2% target share, in a game that finished 17-41. His worst was Week 13 against PIT at 0, on 0 targets, final score 19-20. Across 11 games he cleared 20 points 0 times and came in under 8 points 11 times. In the 7 games decided by 8 points or fewer he averaged 1.4; in the 4 decided by more, 1.5. He scored more when the game was not close.

Earned against scored

His usage that season was worth 2.6 points per game. He scored 1.42, 40.5% below it. The engine classified the season as very_unlucky.

WkOppScorePPRRecTgtYdsTDTgt%Snap%
1LV27-33001003.4%7%
2KC36-351.911904%16%
3DET19-171.611603.7%19%
4DEN23-7001002.9%19%
5IND31-253.3221304.7%16%
6LAC34-61.211203.7%28%
7CIN17-414.92529012.2%26%
10MIA10-22001002.4%14%
13PIT19-20000000%11%
14CLE22-241.611602.5%12%
18PIT13-161.111103.1%27%

Production

Receptions9
Targets15
Receiving yards66
Touchdowns0
Points per game1.42
Yards per target4.4
Catch rate60%

Role

Snap share17.73%
Target share3.87%
Air-yards share2.68%
WOPR0.075
RACR0.904

Efficiency

Average depth of target8.7
Yards after catch per reception2.8
Yards before catch per reception4.6
Total YAC25
Broken tackles0
Drop rate0%
Passer rating when targeted70.4
Receiving EPA per game-0.3

Scoring position

Red-zone targets2
Red-zone target share2.5%
End-zone target share3.3%
Expected receiving TDs0.28
Actual receiving TDs0
Receiving TD luck-0.28

Who else ate

The offense threw it 610 times. 2 team-mates cleared the competing-target threshold.

Mark Andrews25.89%
Marquise Brown24.7%
Rashod Bateman11.51%
Sammy Watkins8.29%
Devin Duvernay7.95%
Devonta Freeman7.11%

By quarterback

He caught passes from 2 quarterbacks that season, and the splits are not close.

QBGamesTargetsPPGY/TTgt%
Lamar Jackson9131.434.544.11%
Tyler Huntley221.353.52.8%

Blowouts against close games

2 of his 11 games were blowouts, 39.1% of his snaps coming in them. He averaged 3.05 in those and 1.36 in close games — a meaningful share of his scoring came with the game already decided.

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